Thread: Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Norton, the following blog post from Bangkok Pundit seems to cover the Thai Rath piece you saw - their predictions rather than a new poll report.

Yep. That's the one. Apologies. Thought it was a poll rather than a prediction as I struggled to read in my less than speed reading Thai.

TAN_Network TAN News Network

Pheu Thai denies giving media members Bt20,000 each to publicize Yingluck; says e-mail of party's deputy spokesman was hacked

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Pheu Thai denies giving media members Bt20,000 each to publicize Yingluck; says e-mail of party's deputy spokesman was hacked

Oh dear.... Dissolution case coming up.

Pheu Thai rally about nowish...

Lockerz.com .:. Weeranan kanhar's Photos -



Democrat rally about now (heavy rain there...and here too!)

yfrog Photo : http://yfrog.com/h8gdmsij Shared by Aim_NT



Edit, bucketing down at the Pheu Thai rally now too....

http://lockerz.com/s/115878383

Thais face jail if they send campaign Tweets during poll
Jul 1, 2011


Thais face jail if they campaign during Sunday's election on social media sites such as Twitter, with more than 100 police monitoring sites to make sure the law is enforced.
PHOTO: REUTERS

BANGKOK - THAIS face jail if they campaign during Sunday's election on social media sites such as Twitter, with more than 100 police monitoring sites to make sure the law is enforced.

People will not be able to comment on any candidate or party in the election - which many hope can revitalise democracy after six years of crisis - from 6pm (7pm Singapore time) on Saturday until midnight on Sunday when the results should be known.

Polls open at 8am on Sunday and close at 3pm.

'Any candidates and their supporters will face jail time if they are caught campaigning on social media websites on the evening before the July 3 election,' said Suthiphon Thaveechaiyagarn, secretary-general of the Election Commission.

Offenders face a maximum six months in prison and a 10,000 baht (S$398) fine. Saturday evening is a cooling-off period with all campaigning banned.

The ban includes sending short telephone texts and forwarding emails. The sale of alcohol is also banned over the same period, as normal in Thailand during elections.

straitstimes.com

Online streaming from PT rally here: ptpstream on USTREAM: .

Anyone know equivalent for Dem rally?

Thai-ASEAN News Network

An External Assessment

UPDATE : 1 July 2011

The knee-jerk reaction to United Nation's Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon's urging for Thailand to carry out its upcoming election in a peaceful, transparent and trust-worthy way seems to have been one of offense. The UN chief's call for political groups and activist networks to accept the outcome of Sunday's poll hit on the sensitive side of many of Thailand's politically active.

Even if Thailand has seen some dark times over the past six years, surely with neighbors like Myanmar and Cambodia and nations on the African continent still enveloped in civil war, Thailand shouldn't need to be given any reminders from the United Nations.

Pushing personal and national pride aside however, Ban Ki Moon's words can be seen for their good intentions. Though Thailand may not be infamous for the human rights abuses of Myanmar, as mired in suspicion as Cambodia or as torn by strife as countries in Africa, it does not mean its democracy is in healthy condition and, most importantly, it does not mean it is immune to the situations those countries have fallen into.

It should not be forgotten that not too long ago, Thailand was considered a prototype for developing democracies and often entertained visitors from other countries looking to study its political practices. Today however, foreign observers are looking for signs of dishonesty, corruption and violence. Thailand has fallen far.

In a country where the threat of revolution and coup d'etat are just as real as an <redacted> movement, the public should be more humble about their claims to democratic purity. If being humble begs the question of how does Thailand get back on the track, the answer can be found in the comments of the UN Secretary-General.

All the Thai people have to do to is fulfill their duty in full if they wish for the Kingdom to regain its momentum and continue on the road of progress. Not only must the Thai people vote for who they truly believe can do the nation good, they must also prepare to accept if that party or individual does not win.

Amidst the current division of Thai society is a prime opportunity for it to embody all that democracy hopes to accomplish. If either side wants the other to 'play fair' and not use underhanded means to divert the outcomes of the poll, they themselves must be ready to not exert their own influences.

Thailand is currently a powder keg that can be set off by the slightest trigger. The explosion however, will affect every side and bring damage to everyone in the nation. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon's observations should thus be heeded, because they are not mockery of the Kingdom's situation but rather a warning.


Thai Post, July 1, 2011

Translated and Rewritten by Itiporn Lakarnchua

Thai-ASEAN News Network

Pheu Thai Denies Bribing Press

UPDATE : 1 July 2011

The Pheu Thai spokesman denies that his party paid some members of the press to report news on its Number One party-list MP candidate.

But he admits that the e-mail account of the party's deputy spokesperson was hacked.

Spokesman of the Pheu Thai Party Prompong Nopparit brushed aside some newspapers' reports on an e-mail sent by the party's deputy spokesperson Wim Rungwatanachinda.


The e-mail from Wim was sent to several media outlets, promising cash payment in return for reporting of news about Pheu Thai's Number One party-list MP candidate Yingluck Shinawatra.

Prompong insisted that there is no need for Pheu Thai to buy off members of the press because being a major political party means it gets its share of media attention.

He stated that after speaking to Wim, it is evident that there is a group of people trying to tarnish Pheu Thai's reputation.

Wim affirmed that his e-mail account was hacked and the e-mail message forged in order to create misunderstanding about Pheu Thai.

Prompong said the party will continue to find the mastermind behind this mudslinging attempt and bring the individual to justice.

He also urged members of the public not to fall prey to this political ploy as the action only aimed at shrinking Pheu Thai's popularity.

Democrat, Pheu Thai candidates neck and neck in polls - Channel NewsAsia

Democrat, Pheu Thai candidates neck and neck in polls

By IndoChina Bureau Chief Anasuya Sanyal
Posted: 01 July 2011 1932 hrs



BANGKOK : With two days to go before a key election, Democrat and Pheu Thai candidates are running neck and neck in some of Bangkok's 33 constituencies.

In certain neighbourhoods like upscale Ari, it is a battle between the Democrats and opposition Pheu Thai.

It is said that whoever controls Bangkok will run the country as well.

Bangkok has generally been considered a Democrat Party stronghold but this time around, polls show Pheu Thai ahead by 2 to 1.

Rising food prices and a higher cost of living have alienated some in the Thai capital.

Wages for the most part have the stayed the same.

One Thai resident said: "The Democrat Party has been running the country for a while and has faced huge problems. The more problems an incumbent party faces, the more its popularity declines."

Another resident commented: "The majority of lower class people in Bangkok might see a certain party's policies as more concrete, unlike the others which are seen as more abstract and not as effective."

And there are quite a few undecided voters.

Some people also distrust the polling data.

A resident said: "I am not sure who the poll respondents were. If they asked food vendors, they will side with the Red Shirts."

Another added: "I think there is a silent majority of voters who still have not made up their minds. And polls have not taken into account the middle class who remain undecided."

Both parties will stage their last rallies on Friday evening. They will make their case to Thai voters who face a crucial choice.

BERNAMA - D-Day For Thais In Less Than 48 Hours

D-Day For Thais In Less Than 48 Hours

BANGKOK, July 1 (Bernama) -- The time for ordinary Thais to get the "wai" greeting with a slight bow and palms pressed together from politicians in Thailand has almost come to an end.

In less than 48 hours, Thais will go to the polls on Sunday in determining their 500 members of parliament and party to lead the government for the next four years.

A total of 47.3 million voters or the exact number of 47,321,136 voters in the country with a 66 million population, are eligible to exercise their right to vote at 90,860 polling stations nationwide.

Forty parties are taking part in this 26th General Election but the main focus is on the Democrat, the core party in the previous government, and Pheu Thai led by de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra, the premier who was toppled in a 2006 coup.

Political analyst Assoc Prof Thanavath Phonvichai predicted that Pheu Thai would win the election.

"My assessment is that Pheu Thai could grab close to 250 seats but not more than half, the Democrat about 180 seats while the medium and small sized parties will share another 70 seats," he said.

He said the question whether Pheu Thai could form a single party government with a simple majority of 251 seats or a coalition government would depend on the voters' sentiment towards the party right up to the polling day.

The party, he said, was still popular especially among the lower-middle and lower income groups as they preferred its policies which suit their needs.

After all, Pheu Thai and its predecessor parties, People Power Party and Thai Rak Thai, have managed to maintain support from the group's base since 2001, he said.

During the 2007 general election, the now defunct People Power Party (PPP) won 233 seats while Democrat 165 seats but before the dissolution of Parliament on May 10, Pheu Thai controlled 186 seats while Democrat 172 seats.

Democrat clung to power in December 2008 after two leaders from PPP, Somchai Wongsawat and the late Samak Sundaravej failed to maintain their governments.

Others factors contributing to the rising popularity of Pheu Thai in this election include the selection of Thaksin's youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra as the party's prime minister candidate.

Yingluck, 44, is a first timer politician and her campaign strategies including smiling when meeting voters, keeping her speeches short and not attacking her opponents, have paid well for increasing her popularity as well as her party.

"It is normal for a first timer politician to get a good rating in the beginning," said Abhisit Vejjajiva, the Democrat leader who is the caretaker Prime Minister.

On the other hand, Abhisit said his party was gaining momentum as the election drew closer.

Abhisit is trumpeting on its government's record success in various areas including economic and social as well as its policies which aimed at solving the people's problems and not just one person's problem in obvious reference to Thaksin.

Abhisit also attacked his rival's plan of introducing an amnesty law which he claims is to forgive Thaksin and bring him back home as well as the involvement of Pheu Thai's ally, the Red Shirts during unrest in this country in May last year.

Apart from its solid support base, Pheu Thai has also tried to win the hearts and minds of voters through its election promises including giving free tablet computers to all students, about one million of them, and the latest to double the salary of fresh graduates from 15,000 Baht (about RM1,500) to 30,000 Baht (about RM3,000).

Both sides are holding major rallies in this capital today.

People from all walks of life are concerned with the post-election situation with troops have been put alert to face any untoward incident while some business community redrawing their business strategy should the need arise.

"I believe the Thais do not want to see uncertainty after the election as they want to move on with their lives," said Assoc Prof Thanavath.

Political observers believe there should not be any problem if any party won with a landslide victory.

However, they are concerned if the winning party failed to secure a simple majority, it would pave the way for behind closed door tussles in forming the next government.

The process will decide who will give and receive "wai".

"Major international news organizations have been pressured into self-censorship" Quote from Amsterdam letter above, Post #3872

This quote particularly spoke to me.

Today I was reading the latest Time Magazine I am subscribed to, dated July 4th.

A writer by the name of Andrew Marshall provides an analysis of the upcoming Thai election on page 55.

Either by way of this self-censorship Amsterdam speaks of, or simply lack of knowledge, this writer bears out what Amsterdam is saying. This is typical of most foreign journalists

These articles are not worth the paper they are written on. It is akin to doing an analysis of French Military history without ever mentioning Napoleon.

Originally Posted by Norton

Abhisit is losing it. Listening on TV. Ranking on about Thaksin's evilness. The Dems are really into gutter politics. Basically, a vote for PTP is a vote for disaster for Thailand.

he is right though, Y is going to be as divisive as her brother, and might get hurt physically in the process

Originally Posted by Norton

Yingluck sticking to script. Talking about economic programs, trade promotion, etc. Nary an unkind word about Abhisit or Dems.

she is losing it, like a good spokesperson repeating the same propaganda crap over and over again, basically a spokemodel with nothing to say

Originally Posted by Norton

If it was the Dems mission to bring undecideds to vote for them, they have likely turned off far more than they gained.

maybe they did, we don't know yet

Originally Posted by Norton

The Dems are doomed. Believe we are looking at a landslide even the most ardent PTP supports could not envision.

I don't know, I wouldn't be so quick to make such judgment, I suspect we might see a surprise this Sunday.

Ok I will make this insane prediction, the Dems will win over PT

Originally Posted by Calgary

A writer by the name of Andrew Marshall provides an analysis of the upcoming Thai election on page 55.

Andrew MacGregor Marshall is his name and his knowledge about Thai politics is far ahead of yours.

From the blog world.....


Philip Golingai: Coup maker’s party in the race for Thai polls

Friday, July 01, 2011

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

IT was a scene reminiscent of the Happy Coup in 2006 where elated Bangkokians showered the soldiers with roses.

Arriving at a makeshift stage in a Buddhist temple in Samut Prakan, about 20km from Bangkok, retired General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin was mobbed by about 100 Thais – mostly women – who excitedly presented him with red roses on Wednesday night.

It was a warm reception for coup maker-turned-politician at his campaign stump in Samut Prakan, a town located at the mouth of the Chao Phraya River to the Gulf of Thailand.

It is typical of Thai politicians to be showered with roses by adoring fans.

In 2006, Army Commander Sonthi launched a coup which brought down the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Sept 19, 2006.

The 64-year-old former general, who retired in October 2007, is now the head of Matabhum Party (Motherland Party).

His party is targeting Malay Muslim voters living in Thailand’s deep south provinces of Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani.

After his campaign speech, in an interview held behind the stage, Sonthi, speaking through a translator, said in Thai that he was in politics because he did not want Thailand to be politically divided.

“I don’t want my country to be separated by Red Shirts and Yellow Shirts,” he explained.

“If you are not red and yellow, then what’s your colour?” I asked the smiling general.

“If you mix red and yellow what you get is ....” he said, pointing to his orange-coloured Matabhum t-shirt.

Kevin Hewison, the director of the Carolina Asia Centre in the University of North Carolina, said Sonthi had always claimed not to be interested in politics.

“But after the coup – I’m not sure if he was the major player running the coup but he became the head of it – he kind of liked the power he had,” said the Australian who is an expert on Thai politics.

“And it looks like the changes made in the 2007 Thai constitution give small parties more (bargaining) power.

“Sonthi is the head of a very, very small party which might win four or five MP seats and he might get a minister post out of that.”

Sonthi does not regret launching the 2006 coup.

“It was the people who wanted to coup. And it is the duty of the army to protect the county,” the soldier, who is economical in his answers, said.

Asked if he was afraid that Thaksin would return to Thailand and take revenge on him, Sonthi smiled and said: “Not at all. It all depends on the population.

“If they love me they will protect me.”

There was no indication the former general feared for his life as he was lightly protected during his visit to Samut Prakan.

Unlike the Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who has complained he was hounded by the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts during his campaigning, Sonthi said he was warmly received wherever he went.

Sonthi said he formed Matabhum as his mission was to solve the violent conflict in the three restive provinces.

“A big party would not fully focus on these provinces,” he said.

“Just allow the locals to solve their own problem as they know who the masterminds behind the (killings and bombings) are.

“They can report to their village heads on who these people are.”

The retired general, who is a Muslim, added that he did not agree with the government’s policy of sending soldiers to quell the violence in the three provinces.

Sonthi believes the Malaysian Government fully supported Thai[at]land in solving the bloody conflict in the Muslim-dominated provinces bordering Malaysia.

“Kuala Lumpur wants it solved as soon as possible as they know the violence can affect them along the border,” he explained.

The former general expects his party to win about 15 out of the 500 MP seats up for grabs.

Asked which party he would support once the votes were counted, Sonthi said, “I will join (the coalition government) which has the same mission and vision as my party.”

In Thailand politics, that is the code phrase for: “Regardless of political ideology, I will join whichever party that forms a coalition government.”

Interestingly, the coup maker is willing to support Pheu Thai headed by Yingluck, Thaksin’s youngest sister.

A political analyst said, “Not a surprise as this is Thailand.”

Sonthi is gunning for a minister post which complements his job experience – Defence Minister.

“If not, then maybe a minister post where I can help to build up society,” he revealed.

On Sunday, Sonthi hopes Thais living in Malaysia will return to their homeland to vote him back to the seat of power.

Originally Posted by Pol the Pot

Originally Posted by Mickmac

This Thaksin must be an amazing man.
Most of the people I have spoken to up here in Chiang Mai honestly believe that the minute he returns to power there will be no more problems of any kind in Thailand and everyone will be happy.
Makes me wonder why they kicked him out of the country, if he is that good.

True. The people you're speaking to are right. The best PM Thailand has ever had.

Military couldn't deal with that so they couped. Then got a court to sentence him. So he had to flee.

Coming back soon though, I hope.

Hope they don't pull a Ninoy on him when he arrives, wouldn't put it beyond those bastards.

Agree Pol The Pot.

The Ninoy thing has crossed my mind also.

But the fact you and I have thought of it, I am sure it hasn't escaped smarter people in authority than you or I.

The Ninoy thing was a good warning for similar circumstances, and the scenario you describe is very similar. I trust the warning will be heeded by those who need to do the 'heeding'.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Ok I will make this insane prediction, the Dems will win over PT

considering the predictions are suggesting a 100 seat difference, that is insane.

The dems have got nothing left in the tank.
Yingluck will anounce the 2020 x20 plan and get 250+

Candidates rally ahead of vote in divided Thailand - Yahoo! News

Candidates rally ahead of vote in divided Thailand


By GRANT PECK

Associated Press | AP – 1 hour 13 minutes ago

BANGKOK (AP) — Thailand's two biggest political parties exhorted their supporters in rain-soaked rallies Friday ahead of elections that are the latest battle in a five-year struggle between supporters of an ousted prime minister and his rivals.

The top contenders are Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and opposition leader Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was deposed by a 2006 military coup.

Thaksin fled overseas to escape a jail sentence for corruption and is not a candidate. But many voters will be judging him and his populist policies when they cast their ballots Sunday.

Since the coup, political battles have mostly been fought in the streets, most notably in protests by Thaksin's supporters last year that degenerated into violence in which 91 people were killed and about 1,800 injured.
The election campaign, however, has been vigorous but generally peaceful.

The two front-runners held major rallies in the Thai capital Friday evening, the last chance to catch a nighttime crowd before a "cooling-off" period Saturday eventing through election day, during which campaigning is banned, including the use of social media such as Twitter and Facebook to solicit votes.

"Our country is ready to move forward," Abhisit declared. "Those who love Thailand, who do not want to see any divides or violence" should vote for his Democrats. He claimed a government led by Pheu Thai would only stir up social conflict because it would likely grant Thaksin amnesty and return his seized assets, triggering outrage akin to that which brought him down.

Yingluck said in her speech that a Pheu Thai-led government would lead the nation to economic prosperity again, trading on the perception that brother and his business acumen had brought good times to the country.

Opinion polls were halted last week as absentee voting started but have showed Yingluck's Pheu Thai party with a healthy lead, though not quite a majority. The party is expected to win in the rural north and northeast, while the Democrats have a lock on the south, their traditional stronghold.

Yingluck, a 44-year-old political neophyte, stresses her connection with Thaksin, telling campaign rallies, "If you love my brother, will you give his youngest sister a chance?" She has called for an amnesty for convicted politicians that many believe could lead to her brother's return.

The military ousted Thaksin, a former telecommunications tycoon, after he was accused of corruption and disrespecting the monarchy. That sparked a sometimes violent struggle between his supporters who seek to restore his political legacy, and opponents who contend he was a corrupt and dangerous autocrat.

Thaksin's backers claim he was forced out because the Thai establishment — big business, the military and circles around the royal palace — was jealous of his popularity and fearful of losing power and influence.

Thaksin's vast fortune helped build Thailand's most sophisticated political machine, and he cemented his support with populist policies that appealed to the rural majority and urban poor.

Abhisit's Democrats came to power in December 2008 by luring away lawmakers whose parties had been in a pro-Thaksin coalition government. Thaksin's supporters charge that Abhisit cobbled together his ruling majority only with the help of pressure from the army.

"It's a vote for or against Pheu Thai and directly that means for or against Thaksin, what he has done for and against Thailand," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "But most importantly, this election is a referendum on what has happened to Thailand since the military coup — all this manipulation, coercion, suppression from above, from the side, whether people agree or disagree."

Many people fear political strife will continue regardless of the election outcome.

Should Thaksin's supporters feel they are cheated out of forming a government, they could well return to the streets. And there is wariness that the army — whose leadership is strongly anti-Thaksin — could stage another coup if it is unwilling to accept another pro-Thaksin government.

"Personally, I think the unrest will persist because the old powers will not give up their authority so easily," 41-year-old food vendor Sayumpawn Salapanya said. "There will be violence on the streets and protesters surrounding Government House again."