Thread: Poll World Economic Outlook July 2010

What are you feelings on the world economy going forward? Please choose one. Feel free to comment of course.

Originally Posted by PaulBunyon

What are you feelings on the world economy going forward? Please choose one. Feel free to comment of course.

PB when you make an OP you should start by telling us what your opinion is.

Anyway I miss a "really are unsure what is going to happen" in the poll, thats my position at the moment, to many conflicting news, first we have Politicians and experts speaking about recovery, then we have other experts telling us it's all going to go tits up in a while.

I guess this has a new home here in Issues. I hope that those who follow business and markets check this section too because I would like to hear from them.

Please don't turn this poll into a political rant. I just want your opinion about the ecoonomy not about what you think of certain politicians. Thanks.

I can't say i know much about economics myself. I've heard a lot of negative stuff since the 2008 'crash' and it only seems to be getting louder. After Friday's fall on the US markets and the reports coming from some of the bigger companies about missing their estimates I wonder where we are going. Gold seems to be high already in my opinion and the value of western currencies seem to be under threat from debt and the possibility of gov'ts printing money to settle or reduce those debts in the future.

(Just a quick link here to Marc Faber someone I've sort of followed now and again since TomYamKung 1997)


I guess I am a worry wort in general too. So things don't look to good in my view. Just by opinion I voted 6-10 years from now. I don't see any revolution taking us out of this soon. If the hopes in changes in the auto and power industries changed soon things could turn around. What new innovation will take us out of this? Of course developing countries like Thailand can grow through domestic development as they have but in the west, what is there to cheer up the economy. I could ramble on with all sorts of ideas about this to no end and no sense as that's the way I am; I'm confused by it all. So that's why I posted a poll to get a general feeling from others. Personally, I don't have much wealth of any sort so no matter what happens I'll still probably be in the same place as I am even if things turn bad.

Good post PB

Well, so far few people have posted but that has to do with the poll being moved into this section. Anyways, the outlook seems be that things won't be good for some time. Only 2 out of 9 think things are going up now. Most are on the negative side.

Originally Posted by PaulBunyon

so far few people have posted but that has to do with the poll being moved into this section.

Most folks pay no attention to the section. They see an OP of interest and take a look.

Originally Posted by PaulBunyon

I guess I am a worry wort in general

I think the "fear" most have regarding the economy is how they personally may be at risk. For most, this fear centered around the potential loss of their income (unemployment). I've been though many downturns in economies and either through good fortune or good performance have never been unemployed a day in my life.

If you're concerned about losing your job, then best to think about what you will do if it happens.

Worrying about the economy and what it may or may not do is only going to result in a headache.

^^ no worries about losing my job, just slight worries about moving and finding a new job if things get worse. I'm willing to do anything to get by in a worst case scenario but I don't think things will get that bad. Who knows maybe Boonme is right. In my case though, I don't have a lot to hold on to or to lose. If there were a world war coming from economic collapse well then I would probably be in trouble.

Anyways, I'm just curious about the general feeling out there. Living in Thailand, I often feel outside of the 'real' world. I just pic up pieces here and there from whatever TV and Net news I can find and try to come up with a picture. I'm sure those working in business or finance are getting a clearer picture of things. Maybe some TDers are involved in those industries.

Originally Posted by PaulBunyon

Maybe some TDers are involved in those industries.

Butterfly is. Generally he has a good feel for how things are in the world of economies. Sure he'll have something to add here.

Here's a clip by Peter Schiff. Some interesting ideas but he's know as one of the Dr. Doom types. He's trying for the US senate as a Republican but still has to be confirmed in an August primary runoff in Connecticut. Anyways he's got some interesting commentary on the US and world ecnomic situation.





"Australia's biggest supermarket group reported a slowdown in sales growth, confirming consumers are much more wary."

Another negative guy. I'm not looking for these people they just keep coming up.

Jim Rogers from Singapore July 1. This is the most recent from this guy that I could find which was about his take on the general state of things in the west. He sees agriculture as an area with potential for those connected to it.

There will be those who say the economy is doomed and others who claim things are moving toward stabilization. Even the Fed and the IMF are uncertain. Uncertainty is certainly a factor in stock market reaction and in business hiring folks.

"WASHINGTON: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S Bernanke signaled that signs of deeper economic weakness would be needed to justify additional monetary stimulus, even as he said there’s an “unusually uncertain” outlook for growth."

Bernanke avoids action despite ‘uncertainty’ outlook-International Business-News-The Economic Times

Uncertainty, as Norts says, is the biggest factor. Once the Conservatives get back in power in the US Congress, they should help turn things around. No more socialism.
I didn't vote because I expect an uptick in a few years, unless Iran or N Korea nukes us.

^ it would be nice Jet but when they were in they didn't do anything last time. I hope that the next group of conservatives or whoever they are do try to reduce spending at home and abroad. I don't know what I am because I am for taxes and for reducing spending. I guess I am some sort of child of the future.

Originally Posted by PaulBunyon

I don't know what I am because I am for taxes and for reducing spending.

Then you will get what you're for. Increase tax revenues and reduction in government spending is the only way the US and other countries will get themselves out of the deficit pickle created over the last several years.

An interesting perspective in the vid below. Exponential growth madness. It works for a while, but then it all falls down. Developing countries are experiencing the rapid growth that we experienced in the past 60 years. We are on the decline while they are on the rise in relative terms. A change in economic wealth distribution throughout the world is occurring. But in the end we all depend on finite resources, be it farmland, coal or oil to keep our growth going. Its not something that can go on forever.

Panda, interesting clip but the math in it put me to sleep. I'll have to watch it again to really understand it but I get the basic message.

I've got no particular feel for which way the world economy is heading really. Probably the most likely outcome is a continuation of this current uneven recovery, but there are some concerns about a 'double dip' recession in the US.

The massive overhang of housing stock in the US, and bad debt, is going to take some working through.

Looking at several broad factors- aging population in the West, low population growth, our debt overhang, welfare obligations, Asian (other than Japan) vigour and cost competitiveness- I think our longer term prognosis resembles Japan in the last fifteen years or so. Low economic growth, but no major collapse in living standards. Growing old gracefully if you like.

Asia- particularly China- is back at the economic centre of the world, which in reality has been the case through most of history. One can actually look at the last 250 years as somewhat of an anomaly- the 'White mans' era.

We are not done quite yet Sab Chinas GDP is only a quarter of the US GDP and likewise the Euro zone GDP, they have some way to go before they are centre of anything other than a hell of a lot of nice Chinese people, and lots potentially can happen in the Chinese future, they have to move from a totalitarian state to a capitalist democracy, remember how well that went down in the former evil Empire, it got blown apart, and the economy went total bust, robbed for its riches with all that lovely money now in London curtsy some fabulously rich Oligarchs.

Nothing is a given.