Thread: Israel launches preemptive strikes on Iran

Israel’s Attacks Leave Iran’s Supreme Leader Exposed—With No Good Options

Israel’s devastating attack on Iran has put the Islamic Republic in existential peril and exposed deep vulnerabilities in the intelligence services that have kept Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in power for nearly four decades.


Tehran fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv Friday after Israeli warplanes carried out waves of strikes across Iran a day earlier, targeting the country’s nuclear facilities and killing several of its highest-ranking commanders and senior scientists.

Israel’s attacks amounted to the most serious blow struck in a confrontation that erupted between the two longtime foes on Oct. 7, 2023. Iran has so far been unable to respond in kind. Most of the missiles it fired at Tel Aviv were intercepted or caused little damage.


Now, Khamenei faces stark choices—and no good options. Iran’s bruising fight with Israel has left its military weakened. Further retaliation risks being insufficient to deter future attacks and prompting Israel to hit back harder.


Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea or other U.S. interests or personnel will likely draw an American response, something Khamenei has historically tried to avoid. Yielding to pressure and striking a nuclear deal with the U.S. that severely curbs Iran’s enrichment capability will be seen among Khamenei’s hard-line supporters, whom he has increasingly come to rely on, as an unacceptable capitulation.

For decades, Khamenei was the architect behind Iran’s military and political expansion in the Middle East, using the Revolutionary Guard and its network of allied Shiite militias. He secured his rule at home by building fierce loyalty among those who supported him, and a pervasive surveillance state to suppress those who didn’t.


Now, the octogenarian ruler who has led Iran since 1989 will likely spend the autumn of his life fighting—not to expand, but to salvage the Islamic Republic he helped build into a regional powerhouse.


“If he is honest with himself, he will admit that he has lost. Everything he has worked for is crumbling before his eyes,” said Afshon Ostovar, associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. “The ship that he stewarded has run aground.”


Khamenei has flaunted Iran’s military might, but until recently, it remained untested. That changed with the attack by Hamas—an Iranian ally—on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.


Since then, while waging war in Gaza, Israel has killed nearly a dozen senior Iranian military commanders, including, on Friday, the head of the Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces chief of staff and the commander who oversaw its ballistic missile program. Israel also crippled Iran’s chief regional allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, while a third, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was toppled in December.

After building up a military presence in the region, including heavily armed militia fighters on the border with Israel, Khamenei and his senior advisers gravely underestimated Israel’s willingness to confront it with force, said Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, or SWP.

Even as tensions rose so high that the U.S. earlier this week withdrew diplomatic personnel from Iraq, the top echelon of Iran’s security establishment were apparently not placed in secure facilities.


“Most of them were targeted in their homes. It shows a level of overconfidence that is not comprehensible, really, in a situation like this,” Azizi said.


The way Israel has been able to penetrate Iranian intelligence and seemingly target its top officials at will is a problem for the supreme leader. Firstly, it makes Khamenei himself vulnerable to being targeted.


“If Netanyahu’s goal actually is to eradicate the part of the nuclear program that can be weaponized, and to topple the regime, that will require a lot more,” said Rasmus Christian Elling, associate professor of Iranian studies at the University of Copenhagen. “And perhaps that’s what we’re going to see in the coming weeks,” he said.


Secondly, Khamenei’s rule partly depends on being a guarantor of national security. For all its unpopularity at home, the Islamic Republic has for decades provided relative safety for its citizens from the wars and terrorist attacks that ravaged neighboring countries.


Since Khamenei came to power shortly after an eight-year war with Iraq, one of the worst global wars of the past century, Iran has kept hostile forces away from its soil. Over the past decade, while Islamic State killed tens of thousands in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan, the extremist group carried out four major attacks in Iran that killed roughly 150 people—fewer than it killed over the same period in France.

The security structure that is now crumbling around Khamenei has been in place since the early days of the Islamic Republic. The revolutionaries behind the 1979 ouster of the American-backed shah vowed to protect their new theocratic state from the kind of uprising that they had just pulled off. To that end, they established the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a pervasive intelligence service. Israel has exposed both as increasingly fragile.


Between 2010 and 2012, Tehran accused Israel of killing four nuclear scientists inside Iran. In 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, regarded as the father of Iran’s nuclear weapons program in the 1990s and 2000s, was killed by a remote-controlled machine gun in an audacious, suspected Israeli attack.


Since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has killed several top Iranian commanders in Syria. It blew up Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in a guesthouse in Tehran by placing a bomb in his room. And on Friday, it targeted several of Iran’s most prominent commanders simultaneously.


Part of the attack on air-defense systems and missile launchers was carried out with explosive drones and other guided weapons, smuggled into Iran by agents from Israel’s spy agency Mossad, according to an Israeli security official.


Still, Iranians are unlikely to seize the moment to foment an uprising, largely because their leaders will do what it takes to protect their rule, said Ostovar.


“Even though Iran has lost its ability to wage a serious war against its adversaries, it can still wage a serious war against its citizens,” he said. “I think it’s actually a very dangerous time for people in Iran.”


Iran is in a much weaker position beyond its borders. Its longtime tool of deterrence—its regional militias—have been decimated. Its two missile attacks against Israel over the past year were largely unsuccessful.


Yet, Khamenei hard-line supporters, who he relies on, will demand a defiant response to what they see as a continuing Israeli campaign, said Azizi, of SWP. They are unlikely to favor an immediate continuation of nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which were scheduled to resume for a sixth round on Sunday.


“It’s a choice between continuing this war, engaging full-force, or surrender,” he said. “It’s already clear to people within the system that regardless of whether and how they respond, Israel is going to continue.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ns/ar-AA1GGA71

Ship Signal Jamming in Persian Gulf Worsens as Conflict Widens

Navigation signals from more than 900 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf went awry over the weekend, creating confusion in the shipping chokepoint as the fighting between Iran and Israel intensified.


Starboard Maritime Intelligence and Bloomberg data showed vessels sailing impossibly straight lines in the region, zig-zagging across the water, or appearing onshore. The glitches — which have affected oil tankers, cargo ships, tugs and fishing boats among others since Friday — increase reliance on radars, compasses and eyesight, boosting the likelihood of collisions.

The Joint Maritime Information Center, an international naval task force monitoring the area, warned on Sunday that there are instances of “extreme jamming” of signals from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. However, the JMIC said there were no indications of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles more than a quarter of the world’s oil trade.


“This is not a good place and not a good time to have navigation systems that can’t show exactly where you are,” said Mark Douglas, a maritime domain analyst at Starboard. “While a closing of the Strait seems unlikely, this kind of widespread jamming does cause uncertainty for anyone operating in the area.”

On Sunday, the Front Tyne, a very-large crude carrier that’s operated by Frontline Ltd., entered the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly afterward, its signal showed it sailing north toward Bandar Abbas, zig-zagging south into the gulf, hovering onshore, and finally heading toward Saudi Arabia.


The Elandra Willow, a medium-range tanker owned by Vitol Group, also displayed erratic movements — nearing Bandar Abbas on her way out of the Gulf. The Pegasus, a Suezmax operated by Pantheon Tankers Management, has been displaying locations on the Iranian mainland since Monday morning.


Frontline, Vitol and Pantheon didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.


The Strait of Hormuz is the gateway to the Persian Gulf, where major oil-producing nations including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran load up tankers with crude and send them out via Hormuz to their end buyers. After Israel launched airstrikes against Iran last week, concerns that the Islamic Republic would block the chokepoint intensified.

Several tanker owners have suspended sending their ships into the Persian Gulf, according to shipbrokers. Forward freight agreements for a Middle East-to-Asia benchmark journey in July, essentially bets on the future cost of moving oil on that route, gained about 12% on Friday.


Analysts have expressed reservations on whether Iran would shut down Hormuz, given its reliance on income from oil shipments, especially to China. Blocking exports from other producers could also provoke a reaction from the US and its allies.


Disruptions are therefore a likelier option, said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd. Hormuz is “Iran’s ultimate bargaining chip. And such chips remain in the bag unless a worst-case scenario presents itself,” he said in a note on Sunday.

archive.is

How many tits have we had along with corresponding tats? I've lost count.

Benjamin Netanyahu says assassinating Iran's leader would end the conflict.
Asked by ABC News about reports Donald Trump rejected an Israeli plan to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei because it would escalate the hostilities, Netanyahu said: "It's not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to end the conflict."
He continued: "The 'forever war' is what Iran wants, and they're bringing us to the brink of nuclear war. In fact, what Israel is doing is preventing this, bringing an end to this aggression, and we can only do so by standing up to the forces of evil."

Asked if Israel would indeed target the supreme leader, Netanyahu said that Israel was "doing what we need to do."

Israel-Iran live: Trump cuts short G7 visit over Middle East crisis | World News | Sky News

Oh yeah, that would be the end of it.

What are you going on about? It won't be ending in our lifetimes in this part of the world.

Originally Posted by taxexile

Israel can see what Europe can’t: the Devil.


Calling for diplomacy now is utterly mad: Iran desperately wants to annihilate the Jewish State




"addicted to the numbing opium of appeasement."

what a wonderful phrase.

it describes perfectly the liberals attitude to any threat that disturbs their head in the sand complacency and fear of causing offence.

Im beginning to think that Iran are in the right.

Putin must be wondering how his Russian air defence systems were so easily overcome by Israel. Kim might be having similar thoughts.

On the other hand, Israel's 'Iron Dome' is looking a bit like a colander.

Originally Posted by DrWilly

Im beginning to think that Iran are in the right.

A new wave of Iranian missiles fired at Israel as IDF operations continue in Tehran

Sirens sounded again in parts of Israel this morning, as Iran launched a new wave of missiles in response to Israel’s attacks.


Loud explosions were heard here in Jerusalem and in Tel Aviv, as air defences were activated. Emergency services are still at the scene in areas that have been hit in central Israel.


In Iran, explosions and heavy air defence fire were heard in Tehran, as Israel continues with its attacks state television reported that three of its employees were killed when the Israeli military struck its headquarters yesterday.


In a television interview, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had significantly damaged Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missiles programmes – but added that his forces still needed more time.

Trump says early G7 exit '''nothing to do''' with ceasefire as Iran and Israel exchange strikes - live updates - BBC News

Trump says he wants Iran to abandon nuclear programme

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, US President Donald Trump says he wants a "real end" to Iran's nuclear programme, the BBC's US partner CBS reports.


Trump says he "didn't say he was looking for a ceasefire" and wants Iran to give up on its nuclear development entirely.


Trump also says he doesn't think Israel will slow its offensive against Iran. "You're going to find out over the next two days. You're going to find out. Nobody's slowed up so far," he says.


He also promises to "come down so hard" on Iran if US interests in the region are targeted.

Trump says early G7 exit '''nothing to do''' with ceasefire as Iran and Israel exchange strikes - live updates - BBC News

Islamic women don’t need your help, nor does that justify unprovoked attacks. How many countries has Israel attacked recently? It’s quite clear who the war mongers are.

^ Islamic women need all the help they can get, every single one of them lol.

ayatollah willy

Islamic women don’t need your help

islamic women in countries like iran, afghanistan, yemen, sudan, syria, iraq and pakistan need all the help they can fucking get to protect them from the drooling rapist paedophile incestous men that have power over them, power supported by the theocratic bullshit that forms the law in those medieval shitholes.

and the sooner the west frees those women from their slavery, the better it will be for everyone, especially the western countries that are increasingly being infested with those types of men.

in fact, all women need protecting from those animals.

one day i will post my experience on an overnight bus in kashmir when the driver and his co driver drugged and attempted to rape 2 american backpackers.

So the orange child has cut short his G7 attendance and said everyone needs to get out of Tehran. Not sure what that is a precursor to.

hitler

How many countries has Israel attacked recently?

1. gaza, after hammas, backed by iran, attacked them.

2. lebanon, after attacks by the iranian backed hezbollah based there.

3. yemen, after coming under attack from yemeni missiles provided by iran.

4. iran, and the reasons are painfully obvious, even to a thick mong like you.

Originally Posted by DrWilly

Im beginning to think that Iran are in the right.

Well you are an idiot and should stop listening to your wife. IRGC are the worst terrorists in the ME and know they are getting thier shit packed in. Long over due.

Originally Posted by DrWilly

Islamic women don’t need your help, nor does that justify unprovoked attacks.

Unprovoked.



You are an idiot. The IRGC are getting what they deserve.

Originally Posted by DrWilly

How many countries has Israel attacked recently? It’s quite clear who the war mongers are.

They were attacked, you fucking mong. Defensive operations are ongoing. Attacking and wiping out terrorist scum and the government that support them.

Originally Posted by Edmond

Islamic women need all the help they can get, every single one of them lol.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced Monday it has achieved full operational control of the skies above Tehran, deepening its air campaign inside Iranian territory on the fourth consecutive day of conflict between the two regional rivals.


“We have achieved full aerial operational control above Tehran,” said IDF Chief Spokesperson Effie Defrin in a statement, adding that air operations are continuing around key regime and military targets.


Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that civilians in parts of the Iranian capital may be required to evacuate as the military escalates strikes on what he described as “security infrastructure” linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force.

The Israeli military reported a “widescale wave” of coordinated airstrikes on Sunday targeting installations in Tehran used by Iran’s regular army and its specialized forces. According to the IDF, these attacks focused on command posts, storage facilities, and strategic missile positions.


Iranian officials claimed 224 civilians were killed in the strikes, along with 17 senior military officers. No independent verification of those numbers has been released. In Israel, rescue agencies reported that eight civilians were killed in the latest round of Iranian missile attacks, raising Israel’s death toll to 23 since Friday.


Meanwhile, international leaders gathering for the G7 summit in Canada stated that the situation in the Middle East would be at the forefront of their agenda. Western diplomats, including from the U.S. and European Union, have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and warned of broader instability.


Despite these appeals, there is little sign of de-escalation. In a statement Sunday night, the Israeli government said it reserves the right to “defend its population and national interests” and blamed Iran for initiating the confrontation with its missile attacks and threats to regional stability.


As both sides continue to exchange strikes and issue public warnings, concerns are growing over the potential for wider regional fallout.

Just a moment...

Israel kills new Iranian military chief

Israel has killed Iran’s top military commander just four days after he was appointed.

Ali Shadmani was killed in a command centre in central Tehran, the IDF said, after a “a sudden opportunity” arose for an airstrike.

Shadmani, Iran’s ‘wartime chief of staff’ and aide to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was appointed to the position on Friday after Israel killed his predecessor in a military strike.

He joins a list of Iran’s top military brass to be wiped out by Israel since it launched its campaign on Friday, in an operation reminiscent of how the IDF targeted senior figures from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of the armed forces, were killed in the first round of Israeli strikes on Friday.

It comes as Iran fired missiles at Israel overnight, apparently without striking any targets. Talks at the G7 meanwhile were cut short after Donald Trump was forced to return to Washington DC for crisis meetings on the Iran conflict.

so whatever you do willy, dont step on those blue suede shoes!!!!

Yeah, war crimes with impunity.

Originally Posted by taxexile

Israel kills new Iranian military chief

Israel has killed Iran’s top military commander just four days after he was appointed.






so whatever you do willy, dont step on those blue suede shoes!!!!

Next....bet they are queuing up

Originally Posted by DrWilly

Yeah, war crimes with impunity.

If it makes you feel better, I bet city you are staying in has killed only marginally less migrant labour building the shitehole than Israel has so far killed

Great thread guys. Keep up the good work.

Originally Posted by DrWilly

Islamic women don’t need your help

Any adult of sound mind that reveres and venerates a middle-aged man that they truly belief had sex with a 9-11 yr old girl needs mental health treatment at best, or a bullet through the head.

Wouldn't you agree?

The Ayatollahs are tottering. Only the BBC hasn’t noticed

The Corporation fails to see the difference between the Tehran tyranny and the only democracy in the Middle East



BBC reporting of the attacks on Iran contrasts with how the corporation covers the Gaza conflict. On Gaza, it repeatedly complains that journalists are forbidden entry to the area by Israel.

This then becomes an excuse for repeating uncritically every line of Hamas and the UN agencies.

In the case of Iran, the BBC reminds audiences that it is not allowed there, but does not criticise Iran for this. Instead, it concentrates on reporting from Israel, where it tries to make as much of the war damage as possible.

This leads to a severe imbalance of reporting and analysis. In Israel, there is no chance whatever that the democracy will fall apart. In Iran, there is a serious possibility that the autocratic regime will collapse and its leaders flee or die. In global power politics, this is arguably the biggest news story since the end of the Cold War.

Yet the BBC muffles the plight of Iran and sets up a sort of moral equivalence in which the two countries “trade blows”. It does not remind us that Israel attacked because it is the policy of Iran to destroy it and it has nearly reached the nuclear capacity to do so. Nor does it mention that most of the Iranian attacks target civilians, whereas none of the Israeli ones do. Its reporting also gives the impression that the effect of Iranian bombing of Israel is devastating. It is horrible all right but, so far at least, largely ineffective.

The BBC even blames the Israeli government that its citizens are bombed, although it fails to find Israeli victims who endorse this line. Signing off from the scene of an Iranian raid on Bat Yam this morning on the Today programme, Anna Foster complained not about the Iranian raids whose effects she had just seen with her own eyes, but about “what has been a dangerous and provocative raid on Iran”. A separate BBC report said “Israel began this war, but it is unable to protect its citizens.”

The BBC’s next trick will be to acclaim “peace moves”. It would be beyond satire, but not beyond possibility, that it promotes an offer of talks sponsored by President Putin, slyly endorsed by President Trump.

Britain owes a huge debt to Israel and Ukraine.

Western powers, particularly the United States, are often criticised for protecting Israel. In Britain, with the rise of Muslim influence in the Labour Party, large protest marches allege this against the government of the day.

Sir Keir Starmer is clearly frightened.

As leader of the Opposition, he got off to a good start. In response to the Hamas atrocities of October 7 2023, he immediately supported Israel’s right to self-defence, facing down internal critics.
As Prime Minister, however, he has bent with his party’s wind, as his pro-Gaza MPs rebel. Now the Government backs sanctions against two Israeli cabinet ministers, restricts arms sales to Israel and encourages the idea that Benjamin Netanyahu should be indicted by the International Criminal Court.

After Israel attacked Iran last week, Britain’s reaction expressed this weakness. Although sending aircraft to the region, the Government would not say whether we were providing our previous air-force protection for Israel against Iranian raids. Sir Keir implicitly criticised Israel, calling for “a return to diplomacy”.

This is hypocritical. Britain has rightly developed a close intelligence relationship with Israel, having a common interest in state and non-state Islamist terrorist threats. Yet publicly it gives Israel no credit. Because of our increasing hostility, there is evidence that Israel no longer trusts us not to leak secrets and may cut us out of them.

Even more important is the obvious fact that Iran’s possession of an atomic bomb would be extremely dangerous to the region and to the world. Western allied attempts over many years to prevent this by negotiation have failed. Iran has proved incapable of acting in good faith. Its regime is a constant threat to peace.

Israel warned of this for decades. Last week, it finally acted, with astonishing accuracy, against a vast range of Iranian installations and individuals. As a result, the extremist theocracy trembles. It may fall.

So Israel has protected the West, more than the other way round. Even the United States, by far Israel’s most important friend, has equivocated. President Trump, as if it has little to do with him, says “Both sides may have to fight it out.” Britain has rendered itself almost completely irrelevant.

On the other side, Russia, which backs Iran, has done less than nothing for peace, and has lost power in Syria. The great powers have looked small.

Only the small power – Israel – has acted on the grand scale required. If it succeeds, it will have altered the balance of power in the Middle East in favour of moderate regimes and in the whole world against Russia, China (which also backs Iran) and Islamist extremism. It gets precious few thanks.

There is an analogy here. We in the West, particularly Britain, pride ourselves on training Ukraine to fight against the Russian invasion. Our contribution has certainly been helpful. But increasingly, Ukraine, like Israel, has led the way in ingenious technological development, notably with drones. Both countries have innovated brilliantly under the pressure of war.

Ukraine, like Israel, is protecting the West from the advance of our enemies. We should let its armed services train ours.

The wisdom is that “The price of liberty is eternal vigilance”. We seem to have contracted out our vigilance to the two nations which are ready to fight for their lives. We should be much more grateful, and much more helpful.


THE TELEGRAPH

amen to that.

Originally Posted by Edmond

……needs mental health treatment at best, or a bullet through the head.

Given only those two choices, does anyone ever go with option B?

Iranians cheering and chanting "This is the final battle, Pahlavi will return." in the streets of Tehran. Pahlavi is the former Shah of Iran...

https://x.com/MahyarTousi/status/1935087642791788621