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  1. #1
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    USA POTUS 2024 Candidates

    Despite poor showing in Mid Terms Donald Trump says he will run again.

    I guess highly motivated and keen to avoid legal cases with immunity?

    bbc reports

    Donald Trump 2024: Six ways running for president will be harder this time


    So different in 2015.... Trump descends the escalator to tell the world he's running Donald Trump has announced his third-straight presidential bid, in an extremely rare attempt by a former US leader to recapture the White House after losing an election.

    The speech, which clocked in at more than an hour, was largely a mix of boasts about his presidential record and attacks on the first two years of Joe Biden's presidency.




    On display were some of Mr Trump continued strengths. He has an unmatched sense of which issues are important to grass-roots conservatives, such as immigration and crime. His unpredictable and inflammatory style can drive news coverage and deny the spotlight to his competitors. He has a base of loyal supporters and can motivate typically unengaged Americans to vote. And after four years in office, many of those supporters hold positions of authority within the Republican Party.


    But his speech also highlighted some of Mr Trump's key weaknesses.







    He glossed over the hardships and missteps during the Covid pandemic and totally ignored his months of election-denial that culminated in the 6 January attack on the US Capitol by a mob of his supporters.


    He attempted to defend the Republican Party's tepid performance in last week's midterm election and his support for losing candidates, which has led to growing criticism from conservative ranks.


    Mr Trump said the task ahead was not one for a "conventional candidate", but for a movement of millions of people - his movement, his people and his campaign. He rode that movement to the presidency six years ago, but there's reason to believe the obstacles that his latest White House bid will face are more daunting this time around. Here's why.


    1. Running with a record

    Eight years ago, Mr Trump was a political blank slate. With no record as an officeholder, voters could project their hopes and desires onto him. He could make expansive promises - so much winning! - without critics pointing to past shortcomings and failures.


    That's not the case anymore. While Mr Trump had some notable policy achievements during his four years in office, including tax cuts and criminal justice reform, he also had some prominent failures.







    Republicans will remember his inability to repeal Democratic healthcare reforms and his repeated promises of infrastructure investment that never came to fruition. And then there's Mr Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which could open him up to attacks on multiple fronts.


    Democrats have long criticised his response as insufficiently aggressive, but there are some on the right who believe he went too far in supporting government-mandated mitigation efforts.


    2. The shadow of January 6

    Mr Trump won't just have to run on his policy record as president, either. He will have to defend the way he handled the end of his presidency, and his role in the 6 January attack on the US Capitol.


    The images of that day, with supporters waving Trump banners amid the teargas as they ransacked the Capitol and temporarily halted the peaceful transition of power, will not be easily forgotten.


    The midterm elections demonstrated that what happened that day - and Mr Trump's words and actions in the weeks leading up to it - may still be influencing voter behaviour.


    Many Republican candidates who offered full-throated support for Mr Trump's refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election lost. Lots of them underperformed other Republican candidates in their states who were not outspoken in their election-denial.


    3. Legal headaches

    One of the reasons floated for why Mr Trump appears so eager to launch another presidential bid is because it will allow him to more effectively frame his multiple criminal and civil investigations as part of a larger political vendetta.


    While that might work for public-relations purposes, Mr Trump's legal exposure in these cases is very real.


    The former president currently is defending against a criminal election-tampering inquiry in Georgia, a civil fraud case targeting his business empire in New York, a defamation lawsuit involving a sexual assault allegation, and federal probes into his role in the Capitol attack and his post-presidential handling of classified material.








    Any of these investigations could lead to full-blown trials that would dominate the headlines and at least temporarily derail Mr Trump's campaign plans.


    At best for him, it would be a costly distraction. A worst-case scenario would include massive financial penalties or prison.


    4. A tougher opponent

    As the Republican presidential contest began eight years ago, Mr Trump faced off against a Florida governor considered to be the party's prohibitive favourite. Jeb Bush, however, proved a paper tiger.


    A massive campaign war chest and a famous last name was not enough. He was out of step with the Republican base on immigration and education policy. And the Bush name didn't carry the power within the party that it once did.


    If Mr Trump wants the nomination in 2024, he may once again have to go through a Florida governor.







    Unlike Mr Bush, however, Ron DeSantis just won an overwhelming re-election victory that suggests he is in tune with his party's core supporters. While he has yet to be tested on the national stage, his political star is ascending.


    It's unclear if Mr DeSantis will run, or who else will enter the Republican presidential contest at this point.



    Florida governor could emerge as the consensus pick among the party faithful not interested in giving Mr Trump another shot. If so, Republican voters may have the kind of binary choice that will improve their odds of stopping Mr Trump before his nomination is secured.


    5. Popularity woes

    On the eve of Mr Trump's presidential announcement, a conservative group released a series of polls that showed Mr Trump trailing Ron DeSantis in a head-to-head matchup by double-digits among Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.


    Those states hold votes early in the Republican nomination process.


    Mr DeSantis also led by 26 points in Florida and by 20 in Georgia, which has a Senate run-off election in December. In all these states, Mr Trump's numbers were well down on previous surveys.







    According to exit polls from the recently concluded midterm elections, Mr Trump is simply not very popular - including in the key states he would need to win to secure the presidency in a general election.


    In New Hampshire, only 30% of voters said they wanted Mr Trump to run for president again. Even in Florida, that number only rose to 33%.


    Of course, Mr Trump overcame net-negative views of his candidacy in 2015 as well. But after eight years as a political figure on the national stage, those views may be much less likely to change this time around.


    6. Father time

    If he wins the presidency, Mr Trump would be 78 years old when he's sworn in. And while that's the same age Joe Biden was when he moved in to the White House, it would make him the second-oldest president in US history.


    Time takes its toll in different ways on different people, but the increasing burdens of age are inevitable.


    There's no guarantee that Mr Trump can withstand the kind of rigorous campaigning required to win the Republican nomination - particularly one where he will probably be pitted against much younger candidates.


    Mr Trump has shown remarkable endurance in the past, but every man has his limits.
    “What contemptible scoundrel stole the cork from my lunch?”

  2. #2
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Sure to be a very long thread David...

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    However flawed the candidates at least the citizens who bother to vote have a choice unlike here or the many undemocratic neighbours.

    Do you think Biden will run?

    At his age I'd want to kick back and with a divided Republican side regardless of Trump a solid younger Democrat could take over?

    Will Harris be first woman POTUS?

    A lot can happen in the next 2 years , I may even build some shelves in the garage I've had the wood for 12 years, paint 2 years !!

  4. #4
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    A lot can happen in the next 2 years
    Sure can so frankly I won't even make a wild guess on any of it yet.

  5. #5
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    If DeSantis runs, he'll win.

    He can run rings around the orange turd, but knows how to appeal to independents, too.

    The Dems have to replace Biden.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    but knows how to appeal to independents, too.
    He's a right-wing nutjob . . . Independents definitely doo not like him



    Newsom would be a good contender

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    Meanwhile Trump is free to get fundraising among his lesser supporters.Keep the money and run.

    Why waste all those Benjamins on political ads when he is a such a well known wriggling villain?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Sure can so frankly I won't even make a wild guess on any of it yet.
    The Yanks prediction with which I agree.

    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    Meanwhile Trump is free to get fundraising among his lesser supporters.Keep the money and run.

    Been doing it the last two years at a frantic pace. Do you think he uses much of that money on political ads?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    If DeSantis runs, he'll win.
    Clueless.

    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    He's a right-wing nutjob . . . Independents definitely doo not like him
    Correct.

    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Newsom would be a good contender
    Newsome would trounce DeSantis, but so will Biden.

    The midterm results prove the GOP is royally fucked. It could well be a bloodbath in 2024.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    royally fucked
    'AndyCapped, no sweat ?

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Newsom would be a good contender
    He would. Buttigieg as well along with others.

    Ranking the Democrats who could run for president in 2024 | The Hill

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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    'AndyCapped, no sweat ?
    Sorry, It is an American expression and may not make sense to your Brits.

    Urban Dictionary: Royally fucked

  13. #13
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    Clueless.
    Originally Posted by panama hat (USA POTUS 2024 Candidates)
    He's a right-wing nutjob . . . Independents definitely doo not like him
    You two really need to pay more attention instead of making ridiculous, kneejerk statements like that. So do the Democrats. Let's face it, it's that naive, dismissive attitude that cost them the 2016 election, when Clinton's team didn't think they needed to bother campaigning where they should have.

    It was DeSantis himself who had the best night, winning by a landslide of more than a million and a half votes, the largest margin of any Florida governor in 40 years.

    <snip>

    His opponent, Democrat Charlie Crist, tried to rally Democrats against him during the campaign by declaring DeSantis "the most dangerous and extreme candidate" but in the end, he only won five out of Florida's 67 counties.

    <snip>

    Democrats did not make any inroads in Republican areas, turnout among their base was low, and
    many independents who backed Biden in 2020 this time went for DeSantis.

    He was the first Republican governor since 2002 to win the state's most populous and heavily Hispanic county - not only with Cuban Americans who traditionally lean Republican but also many South Americans and Puerto Ricans who tend to vote Democratic.

    Joe Biden won the Latino vote in Florida by seven points in 2020 and now DeSantis has carried it by 15 points.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63565224
    You're right about Newsom though, which is why I said:

    The Dems have to replace Biden.
    Warning: Be cautious if you are a fragile pink

  14. #14
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Let's face it, if you absolutely had to make the choice, it would be DeSantis over baldy orange cunto any day of the week.

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    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Let's face it, if you absolutely had to make the choice, it would be DeSantis over baldy orange cunto any day of the week.
    In 2016 recall I said no way this clown could possibly ever become Prez. How wrong I was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    Sorry, It is an American expression and may not make sense to your Brits.

    Urban Dictionary: Royally fucked
    How can a country with no concept of Royalty adopt a phrase from the urban dictionary? Especially when the vast majority of your vast country has so much space that cannot be defined as urban?

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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    He has an unmatched sense of which issues are important to grass-roots conservatives, such as immigration and crime.
    Which came in handy in the midterms for him and the republican party.
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    The Dems have to replace Biden.
    I agree, as much as I always liked the man, he is well past his self life expiration date. I am sure there are plenty of good democratic candidates out there and if the decision is made that Biden will not run, watch Kamala Harris all of a sudden become much more involved and much more visible.


    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    Meanwhile Trump is free to get fundraising among his lesser supporters. Keep the money and run.
    I had no doubt he would run, it's no skink of his nose, and he is not known to leave money on the table.
    A presidential bid could also serve to muddy the waters as far as all the criminal investigations are concerned
    Personally I am elated! a republican circular firing squad should be fun to watch.
    The sooner you fall behind, the more time you have to catch up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai View Post
    Personally I am elated! a republican circular firing squad should be fun to watch.
    Green sent.

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    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai View Post
    I agree, as much as I always liked the man, he is well past his self life expiration date. I am sure there are plenty of good democratic candidates out there and if the decision is made that Biden will not run, watch Kamala Harris all of a sudden become much more involved and much more visible.
    If approval ratings are anything to go by, they would not want her running at all. And to be honest, in a straight fight with Newsom, she'd probably lose.

    You hardly hear about her, but she is one of the most unpopular VP's in recent history.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    You hardly hear about her, but she is one of the most unpopular VP's in recent history.
    Don't discount the ability of Madison avenue to sell ice to the Eskimos

  22. #22
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai View Post
    Don't discount the ability of Madison avenue to sell ice to the Eskimos
    Don't underestimate the ability of "Citizens United" to destroy a candidate, either.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    If approval ratings are anything to go by, they would not want her running at all. And to be honest, in a straight fight with Newsom, she'd probably lose.

    You hardly hear about her, but she is one of the most unpopular VP's in recent history.
    At least she can spell potato.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai View Post
    At least she can spell potato.
    Crisp

  25. #25
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai View Post
    At least she can spell potato.
    Yes, but he never got to be President either.

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