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  1. #3376
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    War reaches Russian border regions

    “Defending people and, first of all, defending Russia,” is how Vladimir Putin explained the goal of the Ukraine invasion in January 2023. Meanwhile, according to the data posted by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), Russian regions have been attacked over 2,000 times since the start of the war. On 1 June, the town of Shebekino in the Belgorod region, with the population of 40,000 people, was subjected to record-breaking rounds of shelling. In total, 52 civilians have been killed and 242 injured on Russian territory since February 2022 (as of June 2, 2023), Novaya-Europe estimates.


    The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in May that the “special military operation” would continue so as not to let the shelling of Russian territories go on. But with each month of combat, the frequency of air attacks has only grown.

    In May, heads of regions reported record-breaking 281 attacks — a number four times higher than in April. On average, about eight towns and villages get shelled daily. Over 2,000 civilian and industrial facilities, including oil terminals, multi-storey residential buildings in Moscow, and the dome of the Kremlin, became the targets of these attacks.


    In total, 52 Russian civilians have been killed over the course of the war, and 242 have been wounded. Over half of the victims are from the Belgorod region.


    The Russian settlements that get shelled most often are:


    The Tetkino village in the Kursk region. The residents of the village asked to be evacuated a year ago, but only 29 people were moved to temporary accommodation centres. Ukraine’s Armed Forces shelled Tetkino at least eight times in May.


    The town of Shebekino and the neighbouring villages of Murom and Novaya Tavolzhanka. Since the start of the war, this area has been attacked nearly a 100 times.


    The city of Belgorod. On 1 June, drones flew into the city twice. One of the drones crashed into a road, wounding two men. Since the beginning of the war, Belgorod has been subjected to drone attacks 28 times.

    MORE War reaches Russian border regions

  2. #3377
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    The discourse on the last couple of pages is a tad off the mark, imho.

    1) Russia are doing exceptionally badly in this war across the board; their losses are massive in personnel, equipment, their government stability and economy; they are losing at every level. They do have some Ukrainian territory, and keeping it would involve endless problems for them. The military tactics are from WW2, effective in destroying cities with artillery, but generally poor; they don't seem able to adapt well or learn from their mistakes either.

    2) Ukraine has suffered massively due to a large and powerful invading war machine. They are fighting hard, have a large population of soldiers. The training of soldiers is hugely better than the Russian conscripts due to the fact they are being taken out of the country and trained for months at high quality armies around Europe (and some US?). They have equal, and in some cases superior military equipment to Russia (now). They use modern military tactics and are quick to learn/adapt.

    3) I suspect that the US/UK/Europe goal is a long war, drip feeding Ukraine better and better equipment, to totally disable Russia's fighting ability for decades to come. We have seen huge increases in military spending within these "allied" nations; basically, they are giving Ukraine some average old stuff, and some decent relatively new stuff, but very little top end equipment - all the time, upping their own new equipment due to replacing/upgrading their older and depleted military stocks. It took a while, but US/other military production has massively increased and continues to grow. Of course the military complex loves this. Less money for education, healthcare, etc, but more money for the military - all due to Putin's stupidity; he is being done like a kipper.

    Clearly, Russia has nukes (they won't use them). Russia has some good systems like the s300/s400 anti-missile systems which are effective, but they are getting depleted all the time. The Russian tanks do some damage, but ultimately the (let's say as a guestimate) 3,000 or so they have left and can bring into service are really just acting as artillery pieces because cheap (not so the javelin, but many very cheap Ukrainian, German, Swedish, other) anti-tank missiles will destroy them all (never mind the artillery and mines).

    This is a perfect war for the west:

    1) Russia loses a long and painful war ending in a severely weakened army/navy/airforce. Likely a regime change in Russia - for better/worse, we don't know.
    2) Ukraine becomes an EU/NATO country (might take a couple of years but will now happen).
    3) US/UK/European/other old military equipment is used up to be replaced with new, better equipment; manufacturing and spending is ramped up.

    The current Ukraine counteroffensive needs to deal with the s300/s400 missile systems, Russian airforce air to ground missiles and Russian logistics - they know this and thus I expect good advancement in these areas (we have already seen drones/missiles which can fake their signature thus triggering s300/s400 missile systems - they can then be directly located and attacked by stormshadows, Himars (with the longer range missiles) and various other systems that Ukraine now has.

    Russia might keep Crimea? Russia might keep perhaps 10 to 20% of their current land gains (I'm thinking in the heavily ethnic-Russian areas). But they are losing the war, have no possible route forward to victory and will have a very poor rest of 2023, imho. Of course, the Russians will have some small local successes in that time, but they are f'ked. WW2 tactics by one country do not beat modern warfare tactics from US/UK/Europe/other. (&, some Iranian drones, won't change the war in their favour...)
    Cycling should be banned!!!

  3. #3378
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    Ukraine blames Russia for blowing up critical dam

    Kherson residents are evacuating as water levels rise. Here's what we know about the destroyed dam


    A major dam and hydro-electric power plant in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine was destroyed early Tuesday, prompting mass evacuations and fears for large-scale devastation as Ukraine accused Moscow’s forces of committing an act of “ecocide.”

    Residents downstream from the Nova Kakhova dam on the Dnipro River in Kherson were told to “do everything you can to save your life,” according to the head of Ukraine’s Kherson regional military administration, as video showed a deluge of water gushing from a huge breach in the dam.

    Here's what we know:


    • What happened: According to Ukraine's military intelligence, the dam was blown up by Russian forces "in a panic." Two videos posted to social media and geolocated by CNN showed the destroyed dam wall and fast-moving torrents of water flowing out into the river. Multiple buildings at the entrance to the dam were also heavily damaged. The Russian-installed mayor of Nova Kakhovka initially denied the dam had collapsed, but then said it was struck in a "serious terrorist attack," before he later confirmed repairing it "is not possible now."
    • Major infrastructure: The critical dam spanned the Dnipro River, a major waterway running through southeastern Ukraine. There are multiple towns and cities downstream, including Kherson, a city of some 300,000 people before Moscow’s invasion of its neighbor.
    • Evacuations ongoing: In a video statement posted on Telegram, Oleksandr Prokudin, the Ukraine-appointed head of the Kherson regional military administration, said the water "will reach critical level" in a matter of hours. Prokudin said evacuations in the “area of danger” around the dam had started and urged citizens: "Leave the dangerous areas immediately."
    • Ukraine blames Russia: Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said the dam’s destruction would “create obstacles" for Ukrainian offensives. “This once again confirms that the Kremlin is not thinking strategically, but rather in terms of short-term situational advantages. But the consequences are already catastrophic,” he told CNN.
    • Downplayed threat: Andrey Alekseenko, another Russian-installed Kherson official, played down the threat, however. "There is no threat to people’s lives," Alekseenko said, adding that Ministry of Emergency Situation staff are in control of water levels in the Dnipro River. “If necessary, we are ready to evacuate the residents of embankment villages, buses are prepared,” Alekseenko added.
    • Ecological impact: Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the destroyed dam "threatens an environmental disaster" for the south of Ukraine, while another top Ukrainian official called the destruction "ecocide."
    • EU condemnation: European Council President Charles Michel appeared to blame Russia. “Shocked by the unprecedented attack of the Nova Kakhovka dam,” he said on Twitter. “The destruction of civilian infrastructure clearly qualifies as a war crime — and we will hold Russia and its proxies accountable.”
    • Nuclear watch: The International Atomic Energy Agency said its experts are "closely monitoring the situation" and there is "no immediate nuclear safety risk" at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which lies upstream from the destroyed dam and is also under Russian control.


    https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...-23/index.html

  4. #3379
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    Well, the Russians blowing up the dam has been a known risk since Ukraine took back Kherson in November. That'll make any counteroffensive from Kherson to the East that much harder.

  5. #3380
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Well, the Russians blowing up the dam has been a known risk since Ukraine took back Kherson in November. That'll make any counteroffensive from Kherson to the East that much harder.
    That's true.

  6. #3381
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    But that's OK, the counteroffensive is tomorrow. Or the next day.

  7. #3382
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    Idiotic russians

    Water supply for Crimea has gone.

    Must be a false-false-false flag thinghy

  8. #3383
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    can you name a country that won a war of attrition with less men?
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    Vietnam did it in 1979 against China, Finland did it against the ruzzians during the winter war of 39-40. Just two examples.
    ?

    I might have missed your answer to my ..... ?

    Just tell me if you are serious

  9. #3384
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    ^^ Both sides blaming each other for breaching the dam. I think it's more likely to have been the Russians. A short term gain in tempo but strategically worse for them due to lack of water in Crimea.

    Ironic really as the Ukraine cutting of the water supply to Crimea was a factor leading to the invasion.

    I think it rules out the chances of a second offensive following movement of Russian troops to help defend against the first in the Donetsk region.

  10. #3385
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    A short term gain in tempo
    A gain in tempo? The ruzzians just wiped out countless miles of their own defensive line that they spent months building, not to mention loads of equipment that is now underwater. This whole thing is catastrophic for the ruzzians.

    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    I think it rules out the chances of a second offensive following movement of Russian troops to help defend against the first in the Donetsk region.
    I do not think I fully follow that sentence, but in a months or so that reservoir will drain and mud will soon get baked by the sun until it becomes hard pack dirt, this will allow for a pretty easy crossing along many km of the front line.

  11. #3386
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    ^ They just creat9ed a better defensive line for the time being allowing troops to be moved to other areas. How long the natural barrier will last is unknown, but could be for the rest of the summer.
    A strike from Kherson would out flank the defences the Russians have built against an attack from the North. They have prevented a two pronged attack.
    No idea how much equipment they have lost, I guess they decided they would have lost it anyway and was worth it.

  12. #3387
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    This whole thing is catastrophic for the ruzzians.
    The BBC published this photo indicating that there was some damage to the dam as early as June 2nd, it seemed to suggest that this was a progressive failure over a few days. I haven't seen other sources making much of this. If that theory is correct this could well have been some kind of blunder and let's face it the Russians have previous for epic blunders. It was the Russians who were in control of the dam, so whatever happened is down to them.

    Russia launches Ukraine invasion-_130009651_nova_hakovka_dam_before_after2_2x640-nc-png

  13. #3388
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    How long the natural barrier will last is unknown, but could be for the rest of the summer.
    It is temporary and will not last long, that water will start receding by the end of this week. From the BBC...

    Ukraine's state-owned hydropower plants administrator Ukrhydroenergo warned that the peak of a water spill downstream from the emptying reservoir was expected on Wednesday morning.
    It said this would be followed by a period of "stabilisation", with the water expected to rapidly recede in four to five days.
    Ukraine dam: Thousands flee floods after dam collapse near Nova Kakhovka - BBC News

    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    They just creat9ed a better defensive line for the time being
    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    They have prevented a two pronged attack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    No idea how much equipment they have lost, I guess they decided they would have lost it anyway and was worth it.
    This is not accurate, as mentioned above the water will rapidly recede within the course of this week and soon thereafter the reservoir will dry up in the summer sun, and it will have the opposite effect as to what you are claiming. I stand by my previous post...

    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    but in a month or so that reservoir will drain and mud will soon get baked by the sun until it becomes hard pack dirt, this will allow for a pretty easy crossing along many km of the front line.
    It is far more consistent to the chatter I am hearing, and your take was the first time I have seen anyone saying any remotely close to that.

    This was a massive blunder by the ruzzians, Crimea is already in disarray with shortages of petrol as people try to flee and when the water recedes out of the reservoir it will open up many new points where the Ukrainians will be able to make a crossing. This has changed the course of the war for sure, but definitely not in the favor of the ruzzians.

  14. #3389
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    If that theory is correct this could well have been some kind of blunder and let's face it the Russians have previous for epic blunders.
    That is another theory floating around, and it could be true, the word is that they had stopped the dam from spilling water, and it was holding back an all-time high level of water.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    It was the Russians who were in control of the dam, so whatever happened is down to them.
    That is what people are saying, and I am in full agreement, whether they blew it or it failed due to neglect, still a massive blunder by them either way.

  15. #3390
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    ^ Not sure anyone knows the full extent of the damage to the dam. Water receding in 4-5 days suggest it is not fully breached, water level will drop and stabilise at a lower level. That means the Russians could do the same again.

  16. #3391
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    That means the Russians could do the same again.
    If it was the Russians?

  17. #3392
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Not sure anyone knows the full extent of the damage to the dam.
    It is pretty obvious at this point that the entire turbine hall is gone, the dam is fully breached, but if you are still unsure it will not be long before the southern side of the dam or what is left of it will be visible in the next couple of days as the water level continues to recede, and the reservoir continues to rapidly drain. Some videos of the breach if you have not seen them...

    https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...20959445237767

    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Water receding in 4-5 days suggest it is not fully breached
    Is that your opinion, or are you referencing something you are reading online?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pragmatic View Post
    If it was the Russians?
    100% it was the ruzzians, They control the dam. As Shutree has mentioned in his above post, they either blew it or it failed due to their negligence.

  18. #3393
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    More suggestions the Russians care naught for civilians or their own soldiers

    Ukraine-Russia war news – latest: Putin’s troops ‘swept away’ in flooding from dam collapse, says Kyiv

    Ukrainians fled to trees and rooftops last night to escape flooding caused by the collapse of a dam Kyiv says was blown up by Russia.


    Hundreds of thousands are said to be without normal access to clean drinking water following the breach, described by Ukraine officials as the biggest eco-diaster since Chernobyl.


    Earlier, Ukrainian forces said they witnessed Russian soldiers being swept up in flood waters after the Nova Khakovka dam burst, adding that many were killed or injured in the aftermath of the dam collapse.


    “No one on the Russian side was able to get away. All the regiments the Russians had on that side were flooded,” Capt Andrei Pidlisnyi told CNN.


    It is likely that Russia deliberately attacked the dam to interfere with Ukraine’s plans for the upcoming offensive, he said.


    Nearly 42,000 people remain at severe risk from flooding in Russian and Ukrainian-controlled areas along the Dnipro River after the Soviet-era Nova Kakhovka dam collapsed, as the United Nations aid chief warned of “grave and far-reaching consequences.”

    Russia Ukraine war news latest: Vladimir Putin’s troops ‘swept away’ in flooding after dam destroyed, Kyiv says | The Independent

  19. #3394
    Thailand Expat Pragmatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    No one on the Russian side was able to get away. All the regiments the Russians had on that side were flooded
    All the more reason that Ukrainian forces did it.

  20. #3395
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    ^ It can't be ruled out but I still think it unlikely.

  21. #3396
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    ^ It can't be ruled out but I still think it unlikely.
    Agree and what a mess they have created. Aside from deaths and property destruction the water will flow to the Black Sea full of pollutants.

  22. #3397
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    ^ got news for you Norts, all rivers that run to the sea have pollutants most don't have Russians and Ukrainians floating down them tho.

  23. #3398
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    ^ I think Norton is referring to the 150 tons of machine oil that is reported to have gone into the river when the dam was exploded. Furthermore, there are reports of another 300 tons at risk of leaking into the water.

  24. #3399
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    I've been thinking more along the lines of....

    Ukraine warns over impact of Kakhovka dam collapse on farmland

    KYIV, June 7 (Reuters) - The destruction of the Kakhovka dam will flood tens of thousands of hectares of agricultural land in southern Ukraine and could turn at least 500,000 hectares of land left without irrigation into "deserts", the agriculture ministry said.


    Ukraine, a major global producer and exporter of grain, has accused Moscow of committing a war crime by blowing up the Soviet-era dam, which powered a hydroelectric station and was occupied by Russia. The Kremlin blames the collapse on Ukraine.


    Kyiv has estimated that about 42,000 people are at risk from flooding that it expects to peak on Wednesday. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the dam's collapse had left hundreds of thousands of people without normal access to drinking water.


    "The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station will lead to the fact that fields in the south of Ukraine may turn into deserts next year," the agriculture ministry said.


    Ukraine has 33 million hectares of farmland, according to the World Bank, so nearly 2% of that area may be under threat.


    The ministry said in a statement late issued late on Tuesday that the disaster would cut off water supply to 31 irrigation systems in the Ukrainian regions of Dnipro, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.


    The ministry said that in 2021 - before Russia's full-scale invasion - these systems provided irrigation on 584,000 hectares from which farmers harvested about 4 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds.


    That represented about 4% of the country's output as in 2021 Ukraine's grains and oilseeds production was 104 million tonnes.


    There are also vegetables grown on some of the land.


    The dam's destruction has left 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% of those in Zaporizhzhia and 30% of those in Dnipro regions without water, it said.


    The ministry also quoted preliminary estimates indicating that around 10,000 hectares of agricultural land on the right bank of the Kherson region would be flooded.


    "Several times more (land will be under water) on the left bank of the region, which is currently under occupation," the ministry said.


    The ministry has not said how much grain could be lost because of flooding.


    Ukrainian farm minister Mykola Solsky told Reuters last week the country could harvest 18 million tonnes of winter grains this year and winter wheat dominates the output.


    Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, Editing by Timothy Heritage and David Evans

    Ukraine warns over impact of Kakhovka dam collapse on farmland | Reuters

  25. #3400
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    ^ I think Norton is referring to the 150 tons of machine oil that is reported to have gone into the river when the dam was exploded. Furthermore, there are reports of another 300 tons at risk of leaking into the water.
    He was.

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