Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

WARSAW—As Ukraine enters a pivotal stage in its war with Russia, U.S. and NATO leaders are coalescing around a vision for shoring up Ukrainian defenses and seeking to guarantee the country’s sovereign future. It is a security model that Western leaders, including President Biden, have compared to what Israel has now.

Over the past several months of the war, the grinding fight for Bakhmut has taken center stage. But after the largely obliterated Ukrainian city fell into the hands of the Russian mercenary group Wagner over the weekend, a broader challenge is coming into focus: How to transform the country into a bulwark against Russian aggression.

An Israeli-style security agreement for Ukraine would give priority to arms transfers and advanced technology, Polish President Andrzej Duda said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. This security agreement would be linked to a process of moving toward future membership in NATO for Ukraine but stop short of actually making the North Atlantic Treaty Organization a party to any conflict with Russia, according to Western officials familiar with the talks.

“The discussions on this one are going on right now,” said Duda, who has been one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine in its efforts to repel the Russian invasion.

Duda didn’t detail what weapons or technology might be transferred to Ukraine under the agreement, but Poland has already supplied Kyiv with Soviet MiG-29 aircraft, among other defense equipment.

And last week, Biden told his Group of Seven counterparts that the U.S. would support training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 jets, an essential step to supplying the U.S.-made fighters.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warned Saturday that sending F-16s to Ukraine would escalate the conflict. “We can see that Western countries continue to stick to an escalation scenario, which carries enormous risks for them,” he said, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

With NATO membership for Kyiv possibly years away, a set of binding security arrangements would be a way of helping the Ukrainian military immediately as it gears up for an expected counteroffensive aimed at pushing Russia back from the territory it claimed after storming the country last year.

The push for a security agreement comes as the West has moved to increase its support for Kyiv, including providing tanks, high-end American and German-made air-defense systems, and increasing production of shells and ammunition needed on the front lines—all part of billions of dollars in Western military aid intended to ensure Ukraine, not Russia, determines its future.

Biden, who visited Poland in February, discussed the Israeli-model concept, Duda said. It is now gaining traction among Western allies as part of the agenda for the NATO summit in July in Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital. The security agreement—based on a proposal known as the Kyiv Security Compact—is expected to be signed following the NATO summit, officials familiar with the talks said.

A U.S. administration official said discussion of an Israeli model emerged as a way to address the core of Ukraine’s security issues, recognizing that it wouldn’t achieve NATO membership soon. But even if based loosely on Israel’s security model, the official said, the contours of Ukraine’s defense agreement remain fluid.

“We’re still discussing with Ukraine and allies and partners what the model will look like,” the U.S. official said.

Israel isn’t a member of NATO, and the U.S. isn’t treaty-bound to come to the country’s aid. But for decades Israel has enjoyed a special relationship with the U.S. as Washington’s most stalwart partner in the Middle East, and it is also the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign assistance since World War II.

U.S. assistance to Israel is currently outlined in 10-year agreements, and the most recent one commits Washington to providing $38 billion in military aid between 2019 and 2028.

Goal of deterring Vladimir Putin

A similar arrangement for Ukraine could change the calculus of its current conflict with Russia, Western officials say.

It would aim to discourage Russian President Vladimir Putin from drawing out the war in the hopes of eroding political support for Ukraine in the U.S., which is headed for a presidential election next year, as well as in some European capitals, where the economic costs have been hotly debated.

“Russia needs to understand today that Ukraine has got those security guarantees and that they’re not going to lapse with time or with fatigue of the West,” said Duda, who emphasized that the proposal wouldn’t be linked to any sort of peace process or negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.

The Kremlin said in 2021 that Ukraine joining NATO would be a red line. Ukraine didn’t become part of the alliance, but Russia still invaded the country.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated repeatedly that Ukraine’s goal is to retake all the land Russia has captured since 2014, including Crimea. He has dismissed the idea of a cease-fire with Russia, arguing that any pause in fighting would allow Moscow’s exhausted military to regroup and launch more attacks down the line.

U.S. would be the prime guarantor of the arrangement

The concept for an Israeli model was first drafted in September by Andriy Yermak, a top aide to Zelensky, and Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO chief, according to people familiar with its origins.

“Ukraine needs ironclad and lasting security guarantees,” Yermak told the Journal in a statement. He added that such guarantees would need to remain in place until his country joins NATO.

Zelensky will attend the NATO summit in Lithuania, where the alliance is expected to set up a new body known as the Ukraine NATO Council that would serve as a gateway to future membership, several European and NATO officials said. Ukraine would have the power to summon a meeting of the council and seek assistance, which would then be provided by individual member countries, officials said.

The U.S. would serve as the prime guarantor of the security arrangements with the participation of European NATO members, said Fabrice Pothier, a former NATO policy chief and aide to Rasmussen who helped draft the proposal and presented it to some Western governments.

Senior officials in several European capitals, including Paris and Berlin, said they agreed in principle with the plan, which would involve a series of bilateral assurances within a multilateral framework. NATO, Ukraine and other officials said they expect the parties to a security-guarantee compactto include theU.S., U.K., Germany and France.

Ukrainian officials have previously expressed an openness to the notion of security guarantees as a deterrent against Russian aggression. Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, said that after reclaiming its sovereign territory Ukraine should become a country with a powerful modern military able to ward off future Russian aggression.

Kyiv is emphasizing the need for concrete obligations on the part of Western countries, given its history with security assurances.

The U.S. helped persuade Ukraine in 1994 to give up its nuclear weapons, offering it security assurances alongside the U.K. and Russia. Moscow violated that agreement when it annexed Crimea and moved military units into eastern Ukraine in 2014.

Pothier, the former NATO policy chief, said the success of the agreement will come down to the details.

“The compact has to be binding enough to be credible—otherwise the Russians will not take it seriously, and it’s not going to deter them and prevent another war,” he said.

Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, the Ukrainian government has pushed for a path to NATO membership. Zelensky last year submitted a formal application to the alliance, but the U.S. and other NATO members have made clear that any membership process will take time.

“It’s quite understandable that Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO when there is war on Ukrainian territory—war which was started by Russia,” Duda said. “But it is equally clear that, thanks to this war, Ukraine is modernizing its military, moving toward NATO.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-aid-...raels-8a05f0e5

A new “revolution” could rock Russia if its stuttering war effort in Ukraine continues, the chief of private military group Wagner has said, in a scathing assessment of Moscow’s military readiness that could further expose divisions in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military hierarchy.

Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview with Konstantin Dolgov, a pro-Russian blogger, that Moscow’s troops are unprepared to resist forces loyal to Kyiv even when they enter Russian territory.
He also praised the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, and urged Moscow to escalate its war effort if it wants to avoid a long and costly conflict.

“I believe Ukrainians today are one of the strongest armies in the world,” Prigozhin said. He called Kyiv’s forces “highly organized, highly trained and their intelligence is on the highest level, they can operate any military system with equal success, a Soviet or a NATO one.”

In recent days Moscow suffered embarrassment when a group of anti-Putin Russians entered the Belgorod region in an incursion that caused anger and confusion among Russia’s influential military analysts. Asked about the incident, Prigozhin said Russian defense forces are “absolutely not ready to resist them in any shape or form.”

“Here we are with Ukraine, that is our enemy, in the middle of the war, Russian Volunteer Corps groups come in effortlessly and go through (the border) in tanks and APCs without any repercussions and make their own videos if it,” the Wagner chief vented.

Prigozhin has frequently criticized Russia’s traditional military hierarchy as he sought to win a power struggle against military commanders to lead Putin’s ground effort in eastern Ukraine. Earlier this month he blamed Russian defense chiefs for “tens of thousands” of Wagner casualties because they didn’t have enough ammunition.

But his comments to Dolgov were alarmist even for the free-wheeling Putin ally. As he has frequently done, Prigozhin urged Moscow to step up its war in order to defeat Ukraine – urging Putin to “declare a martial law and a new wave of mobilization.”

He warned that if Russian losses continue to mount, “all these divisions can end in what is a revolution, just like in 1917.”

“First the soldiers will stand up, and after that – their loved ones will rise up. It is wrong to think that there are hundreds of them – there are already tens of thousands of them – relatives of those killed,” he said. “And there will probably be hundreds of thousands – we cannot avoid that.”

Russian forces, primarily made up of Wagner troops, have labored for months over the capture of Bakhmut – a city in Ukraine’s east of relatively insignificant strategic value, where Russia has suffered vast losses – and its larger ground campaign has been in stalemate since a string of successful Ukrainian counter-attacks last autumn.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin warns Russians could revolt if invasion continues to struggle | CNN

Roman Anin is a Russian investigative journalist who worked for Novaya gazeta and was among the founders of the independent iStories outlet in 2020.

He has taught journalism in Moscow and worked with international networks including the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), in addition to his work investigating millions of documents leaked among the so-called Panama Papers. He has also reported deeply on the leadership within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

In 2021, Russian authorities labeled him a “foreign agent.” He resides abroad.

Anin spoke with RFE/RL’s Georgian Service recently about potential risks to Vladimir Putin stemming from the Russian leader’s decision to invade Ukraine, the current maneuvering for power by men like Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and National Guard head Viktor Zolotov, and whether a possible Russian defeat in Ukraine could spell a new Time of Troubles.

RFE/RL: Many Western experts are skeptical of a scenario in which Putin is challenged or ousted inside Russia and the Kremlin. If the title of your piece (on iStories in January) is anything to go by -- A Clan War For Putin's Throne Has Begun -- you don’t share that skepticism. Why not?

Roman Anin: I believe that the war of clans for his throne has begun. It doesn't mean that they will overthrow him. Putin is 70-something years old; he’s not a young man. That means that his circle understands that sooner rather than later he will die or he will step down. They realize that they need to work on the different scenarios after his death. And the problem of his circle is that it’s so split, they have been constantly fighting against each other for dozens of years now, for access to him, for the opportunity to influence his decisions, for power. These fights were sometimes not “cold” but fought.

There are plenty of examples. Take [Security Council member and National Guard (Rosgvardiya) Director Viktor] Zolotov, for example, who is very close to Putin -- or rather used to be very close to Putin. He used to be his bodyguard, a guy who spends most of his time together with Putin.

Zolotov hates [Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Aleksandr] Bortnikov, and Bortnikov hates Zolotov; they’re constantly fighting. That makes it very difficult for them to agree about a possible successor. And that’s why I think that it actually increases the chances that one of them, or a coalition of them, will start acting even before Putin’s death or before he loses power -- just because they will realize that they don't want to lose time.


RFE/RL: When you write that a battle for Putin’s throne is already raging, what do these people want: to replace Putin or to get closer to the tsar, to whisper in his ear?

Anin: It's even simpler. They want to save their lives, assets, the lives of their relatives. They understand that after Russia loses the war – because nobody among them believes in the victory anymore -- they understand that it will be the starting point of this battle for the throne. And the one who loses the battle will lose everything -- power, assets….

Imagine that the next president of Russia is somebody from [Nikolai] Patrushev’s clan, who is the head of the National Security Council of Russia, one of the major governmental bodies of the country. That means that people who were fighting against him during all these years will not be able to save their assets, and even [their] lives or maybe freedom, and they understand that. And that’s what I believe will make a war really be fought. They will be fighting for their lives.

Because the other problem is that they're stuck on this boat -- because of the sanctions, because of their involvement in various crimes. They can't leave the country. They can't just say, “OK, let's betray Putin and go somewhere.” They’re stuck there. And imagine snakes stuck in the same bottle and they just hate each other.

RFE/RL: What’s the take of Putin himself on this power struggle? One interpretation is that he’s trying to set his underlings against each other so as to remain strong while they’re being weakened.

Anin: Before the war, that really was a part of his strategy. He loves to behave as judge in those battles of the inner circle. Today, it's obviously not the case, because those public clashes between [former bodyguard and Wagner Group founder Yevgeny] Prigozhin and [Defense Minister Sergei] Shoigu, between Prigozhin and [Chechen Republic head Ramzan] Kadyrov, they definitely don't make Putin's power stronger. It's vice versa; they're making it weaker.

Putin’s problem is he’s a politician who is constantly afraid of making decisions, who would rather sit and do nothing and wait until the problem somehow solves itself….

RFE/RL: That’s a strange assessment of a man who made a decision to invade his neighbor.

Anin: But these are different types of decisions. Because he believed, when he made this decision, that it would be a very easy war; they believed they would conquer Ukraine in three days. So, he wasn’t actually risking anything.

The decision to do something inside his clan [is different] -- and actually he doesn’t have that many choices, Putin. If you read public statements of Prigozhin, of many other opinion leaders, so-called patriots, they have already started criticizing him. They have already started saying that he is betraying the country.

These are very serious accusations, and either Putin acts himself -- meaning he starts repressions against his former allies -- or it will become too late. And that's a very difficult decision. It’s ridiculous that such a kind of decision for him is more difficult than the decision to invade Ukraine. And he hasn't made this decision. But I believe that as we are approaching the presidential elections, the more he will have to act, and I believe that we will witness repressions against his former allies.

RFE/RL: Another decision he could have made, but hasn’t, is to appoint some kind of successor-in-waiting. Why hasn’t he done that?

Anin: I believe because he doesn't have a good figure. He knows that his clans are separated, and it's very difficult to find somebody who will serve all the clans. And simultaneously because he's really afraid for his freedom and life. He's afraid of losing power. I think the biggest regret he must have these days is that he doesn’t have a son who could become a natural successor….

Five years ago, I did a story about his bodyguards -- how they started getting positions in different agencies, especially in secret services. And I asked one of the bodyguards, “Why is Putin doing that?” And the answer was really simple: “Because he trusts these people. These people for 20 years stood behind his back with a gun and they didn't kill him, you know?”

Finding a successor is a really risky decision, because how can he be sure that the successor will not betray him the next day after he becomes the president? That is why he's afraid, and I'm sure that Putin will go for another presidency.

RFE/RL: What does this power or succession struggle spell for his legacy, which he's so obsessed with?

Anin: I think it has become clear these days what his legacy is and what his historical role will be. In the history of Russia and the world, it is clear today, he will remain as a near-Hitler, as one of the worst dictators, one of the persons who started one of the cruelest wars in in Europe. He wanted to live on in the history of Russia and the world somewhere in between Peter I and Catherine the Great. But he will be somewhere between Hitler and [former Libyan leader Muammar] Qaddafi.

RFE/RL: Let’s discuss those who are vying for his throne, and let’s begin with the most notorious one -- that’s definitely Prigozhin. Who is the “happy grandpa” that Prigozhin was mocking in his recent videos? Is it [Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Valery] Gerasimov, as he later claimed, or the “bunker grandpa,” as Putin has been repeatedly been called since the war?

Anin: I’m absolutely sure that it's Putin, not Gerasimov. First of all, “Grandpa” is the nickname of Putin, and everybody knows it. Prigozhin chose that nickname not accidentally. Then, of course, he realizes that Gerasimov is officially in charge of what they call the “special military operation,” but all the major decisions are, of course, made by Putin. And the decision whether to provide weaponry and ammunition to Wagner is made not by Gerasimov but by Putin.

And what is also really important and interesting in the framework of this war of clans and Prigozhin himself was his public statement [in the same video]...that they are going to leave Bakhmut on the 10th of May. And everyone paid attention only to the first part of this statement. But, in my opinion, the last part was more important. What he said was that “we will leave on the 10th of May, and we will wait until the Russian people need us, which we believe is going to happen really soon if you look at how our leaders are acting.”

It was obvious that he was referring to some kind of revolution, coup, or whatever. So he sees Wagner as this kind of military group that represents the interests of the majority of Russians, and if Russians need it, they will be ready there. That’s a very dangerous statement and nobody noticed. But I believe that Putin and his people in the Kremlin really read between the lines.

RFE/RL: If so, can Putin really afford for Prigozhin to get away with this? There was also this other statement where he said something to the effect of, “We should cut our losses, consolidate our gains, and freeze the war in Ukraine.” People have been thrown into jail in Russia for much less.

Anin: Absolutely. Again, these statements weaken Putin’s power…. It’s very interesting, because they’re very dependent on each other. Prigozhin is in charge of 50,000 people at the most important section of the front lines. If they leave, you know, that will be the end of the war -- or at least that will be a very serious defeat of the Russian Army.

Prigozhin is dependent on Putin because they can’t fight without ammunition, without weapons. So I believe that Putin is dreaming more than [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskiy that Prigozhin dies there -- that would be the best solution of his problem.

RFE/RL: What does it say about Russia itself that a former strangler of women, a bandit, and now a guy who prances around with a sledgehammer is vying for the top spot in power? We do have historical analogues here, the precedent of Stalin being a bank robber. But still.


Anin: I actually don’t think there were examples, at least in recent history, of such a country. Sometimes I close my eyes and imagine that I am somewhere in 2007, and a screenwriter from Hollywood comes to me and says, “Look, here's an amazing book or script which says that Russia starts a war against Ukraine, Putin is sitting in his bunker for two years, the main military guy is an ex-criminal who was beating women and robbing them. He is recruiting tens of thousands of prisoners and they're being killed on the front line without anything, and Russia is becoming the most isolated country, somewhere between Iran and North Korea.” I would have told the screenwriter that he's crazy. But this is the reality.

We were talking about Putin's legacy. When he became president, Russia was one of the most developed, elite countries of the world. Where is it today? It’s such a tragedy, of course, first of all for Ukraine, but [look at] what Putin also did to Russia: He threw his country dozens and dozens of years back, and I don't know how much time it's actually going to take to recover or whether the recovery is possible at all.

RFE/RL: If Prigozhin, indeed, has some sort of big game plan in mind, what would be his selling pitch to the Russian people?

Anin: We have to admit that he's very talented PR guy, and he was already selling this idea that, “Look at these fat cats from Rublevka, the wealthiest part of Russia. They betrayed the country. They're sending your sons to the front line without anything. They stole everything. Your sons are dying there. I know how to win the war, but these traitors don't allow me. They don't allow us to win.”

And Russians are buying that. He's becoming more and more popular. Because he’s actually saying the truth, or he is saying something that resonates with Russians. Because, unfortunately, the majority of Russians do support the war, or at least maybe not the war itself but they think these days that “if we started the war, then there is no way for us to lose it. We've got to go until the end.” And Prigozhin’s ideas resonate with Russians.

RFE/RL: He’s also the only one who can, to some extent, claim some sort of success in Ukraine, compared to others.

Anin: Exactly. That’s what Ukrainians say. That’s what Western experts say. And that’s what people in Russia say: That his private army is more effective than the official army.

RFE/RL: With all that in mind, who do see coming out on top in this Prigozhin versus Shoigu and Gerasimov duel?

Anin: It really depends on what's going to happen after and during any Ukrainian counteroffensive. Things can start changing and developing really quickly, and I'm afraid that we are a step before the start of the real chaos in Russia -- unless Putin decides to withdraw the troops, close the country, proclaim a military dictatorship, arrest all his enemies, and transform the country into really a North Korea….

RFE/RL: If he decides to do such things, will he be able to do that?

Anin: That’s the thing; I think he's not ready to do that, and he's hoping for a miracle. He's not doing anything. He's kind of stuck in his bunker. And that's why he's criticized, you know. If you read the most popular “Z” channels, they're saying, “Where is our leader? What is our plan? Are we going to win?” He's afraid to do that, and that’s why I think that he will not do that. And on the one hand, I am afraid; on the other hand, I hope that the successful [Ukrainian] counteroffensive will start this hot fight between elites, this chaos.


But I am afraid that somebody even worse can win this battle. And that will be the real challenge for the West. How is the West going to act? Because imagine Prigozhin wins the battle, and now the country with the second-biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons is in the hands of a notorious criminal, a criminal who is even worse than Putin, a crazy criminal, a sadist, a guy who loves torturing people and killing them.

And I hope the West has a plan for how it’s going to act if somebody like Prigozhin or [Igor] Girkin (aka Igor Strelkov, who played a role in the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and supported armed separatists in eastern Ukraine) or anybody else wins the war [for power].

Unfortunately, there are no reasonable people within the elite, those with power. Liberals are very weak. There are some liberals within the Putin circle – people like [longtime Kremlin strategist Sergei] Kiriyenko, people like [Aleksei] Kudrin, people like [Anatoly] Chubais -- but these people don't have physical power. In a failed state -- and in my opinion Russia has become a failed state -- the one with the biggest gun wins. Those liberal forces, both within Putin’s circle and in general in Russia, unfortunately don’t have this power; they can’t use it.

RFE/RL: Another colorful figure is Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, the “notable Chechen academic,” as you dubbed him in your article, who was ready to replace Wagner troops with his own Akhmat detachment in Bakhmut. What realistic or unrealistic ambitions might Kadyrov have in this power struggle?

Anin: I think that actually the majority of experts kind of exaggerate his ambitions. I don't think that he has any kind of presidential ambitions or even more. If you look at what he's doing in his republic, he has been putting his relatives in major posts within the republic. It's ridiculous. I think he has appointed more than 25 or 30 members of his family in the most important posts in Chechnya.

RFE/RL: A monarchic approach?

Anin: Exactly. In my opinion, he just wants to be where he is right now: the leader of Chechnya, the king of Chechnya, a guy who can do whatever he wants in Chechnya and continue receiving federal money. It’s an amazing state within the state that’s being financed by all Russians. Chechnya, I think, is more than 90 percent dependent on money from the federal budget. So, I don't think that he has any other ambitions rather than to just stay there in power and die on his throne and give his power to one of his relatives.

RFE/RL: Let's move on to the less colorful figures then. We have this myriad of clans, like [Security Council Secretary Nikolai] Patrushev, the [billionaire Yury] Kovalchuk, the [oligarch Igor] Sechin, and so on. How would you assess their chances of coming out on top?

Anin: Well, of course, all of them are different. It is believed -- well, I think it’s a fact -- that Kovalchuk is the second [most powerful] person in the country. He's one of the closest to Putin, and definitely he was the one who knew about the invasion, and maybe he was the one who influenced this decision. We don’t know, but that’s what the majority of experts think. Simultaneously, those people who are considered to be the oldest friends of Putin -- like Sechin, [Rostech defense conglomerate CEO Sergei] Chemezov, Kovalchuk -- there are a lot of fights between them as well. For instance, [Transneft head Nikolai] Tokarev, who used to serve with Putin in the KGB in Germany, is constantly fighting with Sechin, who’s also an old-time friend of Putin. In some cases, they’ve even resulted in criminal cases against people. People within the inner circle can’t start criminal cases against each other, so what they do is that second or third people, subordinates [do it], and it hasn’t changed.
And sources are telling me that those fights have intensified in the last year because the pie is becoming smaller. They understand that the risks are higher, and, of course, they want to protect their clan in the best way, and they want to weaken other clans. It’s all going on behind the curtain. But the most important, the majority of them, we don’t see them.

RFE/RL: In your piece, you kind of partitioned those into three major camps. One of them was “bloodthirsty,” which contained people like Prigozhin and so on; then we had the “privileged,” which included Putin’s inner circle, more like oligarchical, finance-minded persons; and then there was this “dark horse” of “patriots,” people who want to remove the upper echelons of Kremlin power because of corruption and incompetence, but they also want to win the war. How is this race shaping up?

Anin: The best option for Russia -- and not only for Russia, but for Ukraine and the whole world -- would be if the clan of the “privileged” wins. What I mean by that is that within this inner circle of Putin -- I mean, there are no good people, all of them are corrupt, all of them are involved in different crimes -- but there are some people who are more reasonable than Prigozhin or Strelkov.

And if the coalition of these people realizes in the end that they can stop the war and can change everything in Russia really quickly -- imagine a situation where this coalition of clans brings the head of Putin to the International Criminal Court and promises that “we will withdraw all the troops from Ukraine on the borders of 1999, we give security guarantees to Ukraine, and in return the West guarantees our safety -- ours and our assets -- cancels all sanctions, and let's start from the beginning.”

I believe that the West, which is really already tired of the war, will agree to that, because it will mean the victory of Ukraine, the end of the war, and the start of a new relationship with Russia. It actually would be the best-case scenario. And I really hope that the coalition of what we call the “privileged,” will sooner rather than later understand it; otherwise, Russia will be stuck somewhere in between Prigozhin and Strelkov. And this is not a very good option.

RFE/RL: What happens if Ukraine wins the war on the battlefield?

Anin: We all hope that it will happen, that Ukraine will win on the battlefield. It would mean the start of chaos in Russia and the start of this “war of clans” that we’ve discussed…the start of Smuta (the so-called Time of Troubles in Russian history from 1598 -1612.) And then we’ll see who wins this war.

We can’t predict the scenarios afterwards. The range is so wide -- from complete chaos and the transformation of Russia into a kind of African state with gangs and constant fighting on the streets to a transformation into a democratic country in 20 years or 50 years. I don’t know. It will depend on who’s going to win this war for the throne.

Interview: The 'War Of Clans For Putin's Throne Has Begun'

Russia has started moving nuclear weapons to Belarus, says Lukashenko

Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday (May 25) that Russia has begun moving nuclear weapons to the country. Earlier in March, Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced plans to move Russia's tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. As of the time of publishing this story on Thursday, there was no reaction from Russia on the latest movement of its nuclear assets.

"The transfer of nuclear munitions has begun," Lukashenko told reporters during a visit to Moscow.


Lukashenko and his regime are staunch allies of Putin. Belarus borders Ukraine as well as Russia. Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarus' territory as a launchpad for Russia's Ukraine offensive


Putin had drawn condemnation from the West after he declared in the month of March this year that Russia would move tactical nuclear weapons into Belarusian territory.


Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya on Thursday said the move would "not only endanger the lives of Belarusians but also create a new threat against Ukraine and all of Europe."


"It will make Belarusians hostages to Russian imperial ambitions," Tikhanovskaya added. She was quoted by AFP.


Tactical nuclear arms are battlefield weapons that, while devastating, have a smaller yield compared to long-range strategic weapons.


Putin's announcement had spurred fears of nuclear conflict, but experts and governments said it was unlikely that the move would change the course of the conflict.


Belarusian troops began training on nuclear-capable Russian missile systems in April.


Ukraine says downed 36 Russian drones


Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that the Ukrainian military had downed 36 Russian drones. He alleged that Russia was trying to terrorise Ukraine.


"The enemy continued to terrorise Ukraine by launching 36 Shaheds. None reached their target," Zelensky said in a social media post.


"I'm grateful to our air defence forces for the 100 per cent result."


Russia subjected Ukraine to a campaign of aerial bombardments on key infrastructure during the winter months, but those attacks waned recently.


"In total, 36 barrage munitions were launched from the northern and southern directions. The enemy presumably aimed to attack critical infrastructure and military facilities in the western regions of Ukraine," the defence ministry said.


"All 36 Shaheds were shot down!"


Ukraine has become increasingly adept at taking down waves of Russian cruise missiles and drones after appealing to Western allies for greater air defence capabilities.

Russia has started moving nuclear weapons to Belarus, says Lukashenko - World News

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

Is it beyond possibility that a strong counter offensive soon could cause mass exodus from the Russian army and dramatic upheaval in Russia?

It is going to happen, the question is when. The Ukrainians will ultimately decide that. They have eight new brigades fully trained in the UK and other NATO countries and equipped with good western kid and vehicles. Word has it they are still waiting for some more stuff to arrive before it begins. I personally think the ruzzian army is getting close to its culmination point.

President Vladimir Putin sustains his power on the promise to Russians that he has, as he put it in 2010, “everything under control.” This week’s attack on the southern Belgorod region, launched from Ukraine, would have been alarming under any circumstances, but Putin’s posture as the man in command makes it particularly hard to explain away.

A string of bad news that began earlier this month suggests to Russians that their security system is crumbling. First came the drone attack on the roof of Putin’s residence in the Kremlin on May 4.

Now comes an incursion into Belgorod, demonstrating that a year and a half into the war, the Federal Security Service, or FSB, which is in charge of the borders, does not have the manpower to protect against small units attacking from Ukraine. Russia was not even able to secure a nearby storage site for nuclear-weapons components, known as Belgorod-22—instead it reportedly moved the materiel away.

Russians in the border regions are beginning to realize that the war that has destroyed dozens of towns and villages in Ukraine is coming to their own land. Nobody seemed to be defending Belgorod, so on Tuesday, locals demanded answers from their governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, in a live chat on Vkontakte, a social-networking site.

Governor Gladkov read the questions aloud: “They said that everything was under control, that fortifications have been built, some pyramids and so on, but the enemy is coming to our regional center by tanks. Why is the border full of holes?” he read from one message. “And we are not mentioning the constant artillery and mortar fire, wounded residents—how come?”

The complaint seemed valid enough. And the more information that emerged, the more the episode risked turning the entire nationalist rationale behind Russia’s war in Ukraine back on the Kremlin: The invaders were Russian nationalists serving in the Ukrainian armed forces who claimed that they were liberating Russia from Putin’s regime.

Somebody had to be honest with locals, and Governor Gladkov, surprisingly, was. “I agree with you,” he said, looking tired and grim. “I have many more questions for the Defense Ministry than you.” He called on his listeners to draw their own conclusions “from the mistakes that have been made.”

Russians have been drawing conclusions rather quickly this week. Thousands jumped into their vehicles and left their villages in the Belgorod region, without waiting for further explanation or assistance from the security services. One video shows local residents trying to break into an old Soviet bomb shelter, screaming at the top of their lungs.

Ilya Ponomarev is a former member of Russia’s Parliament now in exile. He acts as a spokesperson for the Freedom of Russia Legion, the anti-Kremlin group that crossed into the Belgorod region. Ponomarev told me that the legion’s soldiers were “just four kilometers away” from the Belgorod-22 nuclear-storage site, and that the group’s goal was to demonstrate to Russians that their border was unprotected.

The attack seems to have struck its psychological target. Tsargrad, a nationalist television channel in Russia, headlined a program with the question of whether, after a year of “bombs raining on … Russian regions,” the “special military operation” in Ukraine was coming to resemble the second Chechen war. The comparison jabbed at dark memories of fighting that killed thousands of civilians in the Northern Caucasus and created streams of internal migrants.

Now again, Russians have been internally displaced. “This is just a shock; there is no safe place in the south,” 72-year-old Nina Mikhailova, a pensioner from Russia’s Krasnodar region, south of Belgorod, told me by phone on Tuesday. “There is no end to this war, to killings, and nobody tells us when or how it will end. The jokes and threats about nuclear mushrooms are not funny. If the only solution is to nuke America, we are all in real trouble.”

Boris Vishnevsky, a city-council member in St. Petersburg, is one of the very few opposition figures left in government in Russia. I spoke with him by phone yesterday. Russia’s generals, he observed, can “promise us to destroy everything alive coming our way”—but then they will come up against the problem that “the FSB, who are actually responsible for protecting the borders, are busy hunting down and imprisoning Russians for their posts on social media.”

This week, some of my Russian friends said they caught themselves walking around with their mouths open in absolute shock. “The border is supposed to be protected by the FSB, but it is not; they just look more and more like some dumb thugs,” a former Russian member of parliament, Gennady Gudkov, himself a veteran of the KGB, told me on Tuesday. Like many of his friends and colleagues in Moscow, he gasped at the news of tanks and armored vehicles rolling from Ukraine to Russia, unstopped. Nothing was under control.

Putin pretends to love history. While his security services were in Belgorod chasing armed invaders from Ukraine, he was staring at a French map, allegedly dated from the mid-17th century, with the word Ukraine on it, but still insisting that Ukraine did not exist before the Soviet times.

Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, is building political capital from every failure of the Russian military. When the attack began from Ukraine, and the legion took over village after village, Prigozhin took aim at the armed forces on his Telegram channel: “Instead of providing security for the state, some of them are dividing cash and the others make fools of themselves. There is no leadership, no desire and no personalities ready to defend their country.”

Ukraine, however, is only getting stronger, according to Prigozhin: “Ukraine had 500 tanks in the beginning of our special operation and now they have 5,000. If before, 20,000 of their men knew how to fight, now 400,000 men know how to fight. So it turns out we militarized them in a big way.”

Prigozhin has predicted an apocalyptic ending for Putin’s regime as a result of the attack on Belgorod. “People will come out with pitchforks to the streets,” he told Russian media. When that day arrives, he warns, he will be the one taking the situation under control: “And then we come.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...lgorod/674193/

The hurt is coming to ruzzia...

https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/...32461286842368

Two Killed in Shelling in Russian Border Regions

Shelling in Russian regions bordering Ukraine killed two people on Saturday, regional authorities said.


The regional governor of Belgorod said there were fresh attacks, a day after dozens of strikes.


"One person was killed. He was a security guard...he was outside at the time of the shelling" in the Shebekino area, Vyacheslav Gladkov said.


He said others were wounded, including a 15- and 17-year-old.


Belogorod witnessed an unprecedented two-day incursion from Ukraine this week and Moscow used planes and artillery to push back the attackers.


In Kursk, another region bordering Ukraine, mortar shelling killed a builder, governor Roman Starovoit said on social media.


Russian authorities also reported a series of incidents involving drones on the Russian territory.


The administrative building of an oil pipeline was damaged in the Pskov region "as a result of an attack by two unmanned aerial vehicles," governor Mikhail Vedernikov said.


The blast took place in the village of Litvinovo, around 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from the Belarusian border.


There were no reported casualties, and an investigation has been launched.


Unconfirmed reports from Baza, a Russian Telegram outlet with sources in the secret services, said the drones were targeting the Transneft oil pumping station in Pskov.

Baza also reported an attack targeting an oil refinery near Yerokhino, in the western Tver region.


The Tver region press service said a drone had crashed near Yerokhino without injuring anyone, but did not give any details.


Over the past few weeks, reports of drone attacks in Russia have multiplied, usually in regions bordering Ukraine.


Moscow has blamed Kyiv — and its Western supporters — for the escalating number of attacks and sabotage operations, including on the Kremlin.


Ukraine has denied involvement.


Two Killed in Shelling in Russian Border Regions – Officials - The Moscow Times

If Ukraine soon starts kicking some Russian arse, I think Putin's life expectancy is less than Bidens. It's time to put some beers in the fridge to be ready to celebrate the day an angry Russian offs Putin.

^ that would be a beautiful thing. Do you remember where you were the day that Putin fell down the stairs at the Kremlin?

Ukraine’s top military commander signaled on Saturday morning that the nation’s forces were ready to launch their long-anticipated counteroffensive following months of preparations, including recently stepped-up attacks on logistical targets as well as feints and disinformation intended to keep Russian forces on edge.

“It’s time to get back what’s ours,” Ukraine’s supreme military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, wrote in a statement.

The blunt statement, accompanied by a slickly produced video of Ukrainian troops preparing for battle and released on social media, appeared intended to rally a nation weary from 15 months of war and to deepen anxiety within the Russian ranks. But General Zaluzhnyi offered no indication of where and when Ukrainian forces might try to break Russia’s hold on occupied territory.

Other senior Ukrainian officials also suggested that the counteroffensive was imminent.

Oleksiy Danilov, the head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, told the BBC in an interview released on Saturday that Kyiv’s forces were “ready” and that a large-scale assault could come “tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week.”

Ukraine has spent months amassing a powerful arsenal of Western-supplied weapons and training tens of thousands of soldiers in sophisticated offensive maneuvers for the campaign, which military analysts have suggested will most likely focus on Russian-occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine.

There were no public indications of large-scale troop movements along the vast front line on Saturday morning. Both Ukraine and Russia have engaged in robust informational campaigns using videos and social media throughout the war.

But the statements from General Zaluzhnyi and Mr. Danilov come as a growing number of senior Ukrainian officials — including the head of military intelligence — have said in recent days that Ukraine now has what it needs to go on the attack.

In many ways, military analysts have noted, the counteroffensive may already have begun.

For weeks, Ukraine has apparently been seeking to set the stage for the campaign and “shape” the battlefield through a series of coordinated strikes deep behind enemy lines aimed at undermining critical Russian logistical operations, degrading Russia’s combat abilities and compromising Moscow’s capacity to move its forces around the battlefield.

In recent days, the tempo and range of attacks deep inside Russian-held territory have increased. While Ukraine’s military has not explicitly claimed responsibility, local Russian proxy officials in occupied areas have reported strikes.

Adding to speculation that the start of a counteroffensive was near, internet and telecommunications went down in some Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine late Friday.

NetBlocks, which tracks internet outages around the world, said internet service was disrupted on the Crimean Peninsula and in parts of the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine — including in the town of Enerhodar, where Russian forces are occupying Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Internet service also went down in Berdiansk and Melitopol, two strategically important cities that Russia has turned into military strongholds, according to Netblocks.

“The reason for the internet outage is interruptions in the work of the Russian internet provider Miranda Media, which operates in Crimea,” the organization reported.

The outage came as Russia and Ukraine accused each other of preparing a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is not far from the front line. On Saturday, the morning after Ukrainian military intelligence warned that Russia was preparing to “simulate an accident” at the plant, Ukrainian officials said the night had passed without incident.

Ukrainian officials have been deliberately vague in outlining their military plans, most likely in hopes of maintaining an element of surprise in what has become a widely telegraphed campaign. They have said that the counteroffensive would not be marked by a single event and would probably feature feints and deceptions at the outset.

At the same time, Ukrainian officials also have sought to temper expectations, warning of a long and bloody fight in the months to come.

Russia still controls more than 40,000 square miles of land across southern and eastern Ukraine, which amounts to about 17 percent of the country, and have had months to fortify their defensive positions.

While Kyiv continues to seek more advanced weapons for its forces, senior Ukrainian and Western officials have said in recent days that Ukrainian forces have what they need to launch the counteroffensive.

And the arsenal will continue to grow. A week after President Biden told U.S. allies that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on American-made F-16 fighter jets, a step toward eventually letting other countries give the planes to Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers started training in Germany on how to operate and maintain American M1 Abrams tanks, according to the Pentagon.

About 200 of the troops — roughly one armored battalion — on Friday began conducting what the military calls combined arms instruction at training ranges in Grafenwoehr and Hohenfels, Germany, Lt. Col. Garron Garn, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement.

That instruction includes basic soldiering tasks like marksmanship and medical skills, along with training at platoon and company levels, and eventually larger exercises involving battalion-size units facing off against one another.

The other 200 Ukrainian soldiers began training on how to fuel and maintain the tanks, Colonel Garn said.

Defense Department officials had previously said that about 31 tanks would be sent to Germany to be used in a training program for Ukrainian troops that is expected to take 10 to 12 weeks. Combat-ready tanks could reach the battlefields in Ukraine by the fall, the officials have said.

Initially, American defense officials had said that the M1 Abrams tanks would not arrive in Ukraine until next year. But since January, when the Biden administration reversed its longstanding resistance and announced that it would send the tanks, senior defense officials have said that they wanted to speed up the timeline.

As with the fighter jets, the delivery of the M1 Abrams tanks and trained crews would be months away, perhaps too late to have any impact on a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian forces have received dozens of advanced Leopard II tanks as well as scores of Bradley fighting vehicles and other armor.

While the timing of the counteroffensive remained unclear, the statement from General Zaluzhnyi was the most direct indication that the hour was drawing near.

The video that accompanied his statement was broadcast on national television and quickly spread across social media platforms.

Entitled “Prayer for the Liberation of Ukraine” — a nod to a nationalist poem from the 1920s — it featured Ukrainian soldiers preparing for battle and vowing to “destroy” their enemies.
“Bless our decisive offensive!” the soldiers chant.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/27/w...offensive.html

Russia launched ‘largest drone attack’ on Ukrainian capital before Kyiv Day; 1 killed


Ukraine’s capital was subjected to the largest drone attack since the start of Russia’s war, local officials said, as Kyiv prepared to mark the anniversary of its founding on Sunday. At least one person was killed.


Russia launched the “most massive attack” on the city overnight Saturday with Iranian-made Shahed drones, said Serhii Popko, a senior Kyiv military official. The attack lasted more than five hours, with air defense reportedly shooting down more than 40 drones.


A 41-year-old man was killed and a 35-year-old woman was hospitalized when debris fell on a seven-story nonresidential building and started a fire, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.


Ukraine’s air force said that Saturday night was also record-breaking in terms of Shahed drone attacks across the country. Of the 54 drones launched, 52 were shot down by air defense systems.


In the northeastern Kharkiv province, regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said a 61-year-old woman and a 60-year-old man were killed in two separate shelling attacks.


Kyiv Day marks the anniversary of Kyiv’s official founding. The day is usually celebrated with live concerts, street fairs, exhibitions and fireworks. Scaled-back festivities were planned for this year, the city’s 1,541st anniversary.


The timing of the drone attacks was likely not coincidental, Ukrainian officials said.


“The history of Ukraine is a long-standing irritant for the insecure Russians,” Ukraine’s chief presidential aide, Andriy Yermak, said on Telegram.


“Today, the enemy decided to ‘congratulate’ the people of Kyiv on Kyiv Day with the help of their deadly UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles),” Popko also wrote on the messaging app.


Local officials in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region said that air defense systems destroyed several drones as they approached the Ilsky oil refinery.


Russia’s southern Belgorod region, bordering Ukraine, also came under attack from Ukrainian forces on Saturday, local officials said. Regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov reported Sunday that a 15-year-old girl and a 17-year-old boy were wounded in the shelling.


Drone attacks against Russian border regions have been a regular occurrence since the start of the invasion in February 2022, with attacks increasing last month. Earlier this month, an oil refinery in Krasnodar was attacked by drones on two straight days.


Ukrainian air defenses, bolstered by sophisticated Western-supplied systems, have been adept at thwarting Russian air attacks — both drones and aircraft missiles.


Earlier in May, Ukraine prevented an intense Russian air attack on Kyiv, shooting down all missiles aimed at the capital. The bombardment, which additionally targeted locations across Ukraine, included six Russian Kinzhal aero-ballistic hypersonic missiles, repeatedly touted by Russian President Vladimir Putin as providing a key strategic competitive advantage and among the most advanced weapons in his country’s arsenal.


Sophisticated Western air defense systems, including American-made Patriot missiles, have helped spare Kyiv from the kind of destruction witnessed along the main front line in the country’s east and south. While most of the ground fighting is stalemated along that front line, both sides are targeting other territory with long-range weapons.


Against the backdrop of Saturday night’s drone attacks, Russia’s ambassador to the U.K., Andrei Kelin, warned of an escalation in Ukraine. He told the BBC on Sunday his country had “enormous resources” and it was yet to “act very seriously,” cautioning that Western supplies of weapons to Ukraine risked escalating the war to a “new dimension.” The length of the conflict, he said, “depends on the efforts in escalation of war that is being undertaken by NATO countries, especially by the U.K.”


Kelin’s comments are typical of Russian officials’ rhetoric with regard to Moscow’s military might, but contradict regular reports from the battlefield of Russian troops being poorly equipped and trained.


Also on Sunday, the death toll from Friday’s missile attack on the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, the regional capital of the Dnipropetrovsk province, rose to four. Regional. Gov. Serhii Lysak said that three people who were considered missing were confirmed dead. There were 32 people, including two children, wounded in the attack, which struck a building containing psychology and veterinary clinics.


Russia launched 'largest drone attack' on Ukrainian capital before Kyiv Day; 1 killed | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

Dnipro hospital strike: death toll rises to 4

The death toll of the Dnipro hospital strike has risen to four, says local governor Serhiy Lysak.


“The fate of the three people who went missing in the Dnipro missile attack is now known. Sadly, they are dead. The fragments of their bodies have been examined,” he said.


The victims are a doctor, 56, a hospital employee, 64, and a worker of the nearby animal clinic, 57.


Yesterday, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service reported finishing the rescue operation in Dnipro where a Russian missile hit a hospital on 26 May. It was reported yesterday that two people had been killed. A total of 32 people were injured in the attack, and a total of 30 apartment blocks and over 20 detached houses were damaged, as well as a stadium, four schools, and three kindergartens.

Dnipro hospital strike: death toll rises to 4

Not all of them were shot down, the ruzzians are as usual lying through their teeth.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Ukraine launched one of its biggest drone attacks on Moscow on Tuesday, according to Russia, whose defence ministry said all were destroyed approaching the city.
There were no reports of deaths.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said two people were injured, one of whom was hospitalised, in the early morning attack. The residents of several parts of two apartment blocks had been evacuated but later returned.

"Early this morning, as a result of the drone attack, minor damage occurred in several buildings," Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. "No one has been seriously injured."

Video posted on social media showed what appeared to be a drone being shot down and a plume of smoke rising over the Moscow skyline.

Moscow's airports remained open.

Russia's defence ministry said the drones were sent by Kyiv but were all destroyed, according to Russian news agencies.

Russian lawmaker Maxim Ivanov said it was the most serious attack on Moscow since Nazi attacks during World War Two, saying no citizen could now avoid what he said was "the new reality".
"You will either defeat the enemy as a single fist with our Motherland, or the indelible shame of cowardice, collaboration and betrayal will engulf your family," he said.

Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia have been growing in intensity in recent weeks. The New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence believes Ukraine was behind a drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month.

Ukraine has not publicly acknowledged launching attacks against targets inside Russia.

Russia's investigative committee said a number of drones were shot down and that there was minor damage due to the falling wreckage, but did not say how many drones attacked.

The Telegram channel Baza, which has good sources among Russia's security services, said around 25 drones attacked Moscow. Russia's RBK cited an unidentified interior ministry source as saying that more than 10 drones were shot down.

Andrei Vorobyov, governor of the Moscow region, said on the Telegram channel that several drones were shot down on their approach to Moscow.

Ukrainian Special Operators Are Fighting Russia With Logistical Limits

Scumbag terrorist ruzzians bomb civilians...

https://twitter.com/GwarWorin/status...91705180389376

I find it hard to believe Ukraine would launch an attack of such little military value.

Russia says it can take 'severe measures' after drone attack

Moscow has threatened it could take the "harshest possible measures" in response to a drone attack on the Russian capital today.
In a statement, Russia's Foreign Ministry said it reserved the right to take the most "severe measures".
"Assurances by NATO officials that the Kyiv regime will not launch strikes deep into Russian territory prove to be completely hypocritical," it said.
"Russia reserves the right to take the harshest possible measures in response to the terrorist attacks by the Kyiv regime."

Ukraine war latest: Russia says Ukraine has attacked Moscow with drones; Kyiv has 'a lot to lose' if it's responsible | World News | Sky News

^ I'm sure Russia will provide information on the drones used in the attack if they can pin them on coming from Ukraine.

Political value rather than military value. Get the Moscow population against Putin. Not sure if it would have the reverse effect though.

Originally Posted by Troy

^ I'm sure Russia will provide information on the drones used in the attack if they can pin them on coming from Ukraine.

And I'm also sure they've got bits of drones used in Ukraine already.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I find it hard to believe Ukraine would launch an attack of such little military value.

Of course, it has military value, the Ukrainians now know that the ruzzian air defense network has more holes than a piece of Swiss cheese. The real value is the psychological one, the ruzzian telegram talking heads are in full meltdown mode over this and the blowback internally will be substantial. It was another brilliant strategic attack by the Ukrainians.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

t did little damage and Putin controls the media in Russia so if they hear about it at all it will be about how ineffective it was and what a nasty bunch of terrorists the Ukrainians are.

Umm, ok...

What are today's Russian papers saying about yesterday’s drone attack? One concludes: “Moscow's becoming a city on the frontline…it’s a real possibility now that you’ll be woken up by a contraption with several kilograms of explosives flying through your window.” #ReadingRussia

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status...88959170985985

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

It's a bit like your enthusiasm over this "counteroffensive" that always seems to be starting tomorrow.

Noted.

Emmanuel Macron is to make a diplomatic push to reassure central and eastern European countries that France understands that the continent’s security environment has been permanently changed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Macron has often been viewed with suspicion across eastern Europe, especially in Poland, as someone who sees Russia as ultimately part of Europe’s security architecture and wants to use the war in Ukraine to boost European defence autonomy in a way that loosens Europe’s security ties to the US.

In a speech to a security forum in the Slovakian capital, Bratislava, on Wednesday, Macron will call for a “strategic awakening” and highlight the work France has done to protect Nato’s eastern flank, including posting 1,250 French troops in Romania and 300 in Estonia. He will also stress the French role in unlocking the supply of battle tanks to Ukraine.

At a meeting the following day in Moldova that he has largely engineered with fellow European leaders from inside and outside the EU – including Britain’s Rishi Sunak – he will stress France’s commitment to Ukraine’s victory and say he will not tolerate a frozen conflict.

An Élysée official said: “What is striking is that it’s not the first, this is the third war that Russia has been waging in 15 years, with Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, Ukraine again in 2022.”

The official accused Russia of “laying down its abusive demands in the draft treaties of late 2021, where Russia proposed nothing short of the full decoupling of European American security, the neutralisation of Ukraine and organising the vulnerability of the states neighbouring Russia – all claims which cannot be accepted.”

The Élysée pointed out that Macron had already sanctioned an increase of more than a third in France’s planned defence spending for 2024-30 compared with 2019-25. Macron sees the increase as part of a sea change in defence spending under way with no prospect of an end to the new cold war any time soon.

The president will argue that Europe, backed by EU funding, needs to do more to support its own armament production capacity and explore defence partnerships between member states.

Macron is expected to warn of a deep and steady erosion of European strategic stability due to Russia’s successive withdrawals from nuclear arms control treaties, as well as the recent stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in defiance of the bargain struck in 1997.

As part of the response, France and Germany will host a military conference on 19 June focused on a German proposal for a European “sky shield” initiative. France will contend that Europe and Nato need not just stronger air defence but a new deep precision strike capability. The Élysée said: “It is not enough to have shields, you also need swords.”

The proposal for developing this long-range capability for Nato was recently discussed at a Franco-British summit in Paris in March. French sources said this showed how Macron does not insist that stronger European defence capabilities are solely structured around the EU.

The meeting in Moldova of the new European Political Community (EPC), a Macron brainchild, will gather 47 European leaders from inside and outside the EU including Turkey. It will be the second such meeting of this fledgling group.

The Élysée predicted that the family photo of so many European leaders showing their solidarity with two EU accession applicants – Ukraine and Moldova – would send a clear message to Russia.

The re-elected Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is expected to attend the summit where he will be pressed to clarify his terms for lifting his veto on Sweden’s membership of Nato. France would like Sweden to be able to join Nato at the organisation’s Vilnius summit in July. The summit will also consider the next stage of Ukraine’s application to join Nato, something France does not favour for some time.

The EPC, due to meet twice a year, is still in its infancy and will focus on European security, connectivity, energy and cyberdefence. The next EPC will be hosted by Spain later this year and another next year by the UK.

Macron to call for European ‘strategic awakening’ after Ukraine invasion | Europe | The Guardian

Russian children evacuate as shelling increases in several areas along border. Here's what to know


Several countries are reacting to Tuesday’s drone attacks in Moscow that injured two people and damaged several buildings, according to Russian state media.


Ukraine has denied involvement, even as one top official made it clear that Russia was getting a taste of its own medicine after months of bombarding Ukrainian cities.


Here's what to know:


Countries react to attacks in Russia: The Biden administration has “been clear, privately and publicly, with the Ukrainians that we don't support attacks on Russian soil,” the White House said, adding that Ukrainian officials have assured the US they will not use equipment from the United States to strike inside Russia. German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said Ukraine has a "legitimate" right to defend itself against Russian attacks under international law. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly also acknowledged that Ukraine has the right to “project force” beyond its own borders for self-defense.

Russia's air defense and weapons: Russia has pledged to continue to improve its air defense system after the drone attack on Moscow. President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday the city's air defenses worked normally, but there was still “work to be done to make it better.” Russia is also ramping up the production of weapons and other military equipment, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said Wednesday, according to state news agency TASS.

Other strikes on the border: Several areas in Russia near the border with Ukraine have come under more persistent mortar and artillery fire in recent days. Russian children were evacuated from areas of the Belgorod region, according to Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov
Fighting in Bakhmut: There has been a significant drop in hostilities on the ground around the city of Bakhmut as Russian forces rotate in and out of the area, but shelling continues incessantly, Ukrainian officials say. Wagner units are still being replaced with Russian regular forces, a spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of the Ukrainian military said.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: The head of the UN nuclear watchdog said he believes Russia and Ukraine are “committing” to the organization’s five principles for averting a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant. The principles include “no attacks of any kind from or against the plant," and a commitment against using it as a storage base for heavy weaponry, Rafael Grossi said.

US aid for Ukraine: The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it will send an estimated $300 million worth of additional weaponry and equipment to Ukraine, focusing the latest military aid package on air defense systems to help Kyiv fend off Russian aerial attacks. Radar-guided, air-to-air AIM-7 missiles are included in the package for the first time along with additional missiles for Patriot air defense systems.

Latest news on Russia'''s war in Ukraine, drone attacks in Moscow

Recent news reports have touted Ukraine's successful use of air defense systems to intercept a Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile. While impressive, a more astonishing accomplishment is that the Ukrainians have likely limited the effectiveness of Russian air defense systems. Thus far in the war, both sides have employed such systems to protect their ground forces from incoming missiles and aircraft strikes. However, the Ukrainians have managed to systematically destroy Russian air defense assets, which the Russians have struggled to replace. This has the potential to play a large role in the forthcoming counter-offensive, allowing the Ukrainians to potentially control the airspace over Ukraine.

The Russian military has an impressive array of air defense systems with some of their newest systems capable of striking down very sophisticated missile systems. Doctrinally, a Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) contains one air defense platoon that includes 2 9A34M2 Strela-10 and 2 2S6M Tunguska anti-aircraft artillery systems (or comparable systems). The 91A34M2 Strela-10 ranges out to 10 km and carries 4 9M33 guided anti-aircraft missiles. The 2S6M Tunguska is more heavily armored and carries 8 9M311 guided anti-aircraft missiles along with a 30mm chain gun for low flying aircraft and helicopters.

It is unlikely that the Russians were able to outfit all of their units with these systems and had to rely on older Soviet systems for many of their BTGs; this trend has been seen across many of their equipment platforms. The older Soviet equipment is more susceptible to Ukranian jamming, which disrupts the radar system’s ability to detect and target aircraft. Additionally, they are less armored and less mobile, making them easier for the Ukrainians to locate and destroy.

Regardless, Russian air defense systems proved effective in 2014 in the War in Crimea. These systems quickly shut down the airspace in and around Crimea to Ukrainian forces, although the exact number of Ukrainian aircraft shot down is unknown. The Russians also reportedly gave anti-air assets to rebel groups in Donbas who proceeded to shoot down Malaysia Airline flight MH117.

Throughout the current war, neither side has been able to gain air superiority. Especially as the war concentrated itself to the Donbas region, both sides were able to establish a somewhat robust air defense network that limited aircraft operations. As such, ground forces were not able to get close-air support or other aviation aid. These systems, while effective against aircraft, were only partially effective against missiles and drones. While the Ukrainians were able to intercept some missiles and Shahed-136 drones, a large number of these still reached their targets. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians were able to perform a number of drone and missile strikes against Russian forces.

The Ukrainians have been systematically targeting Russian air defense systems since the start of the war. The below figure compiles the number of destroyed or captured Russian air defense systems throughout the war based on open-source imagery compiled by Oryxspioenkop.com. There was a large number of Russian losses early in the war during the failed initial invasion attempt.

Since the initial invasion, the destruction rate of Russian air defense systems has remained fairly constant. The 130 destroyed systems would comprise a significant portion of the Russian air defense assets in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Russia has the ability to replace these losses with modern air defense equipment, having to rely on outdated Soviet equipment.

The Ukrainians have taken significant losses as well in their air defense systems, having lost 103 systems. Almost all of these systems were Soviet-era, and the bulk of these were from early in the war. Further, they are running low on ammunition, much of which is produced by Russia. However, Ukrainian air defense capabilities are being augmented by NATO aid, including the Patriot missile system that reportedly shot down a Kinzhal missile.

A significant indicator of the decline of Russian air defense systems is the inclusion of Hydra-70 missiles in the recent military aid packet from the United States to Ukraine. The aid package comprises equipment expected to be utilized in the counter-offensive, notably a substantial quantity of ammunition such as small arms, artillery rounds, TOW missiles, and HIMAR missiles. The Hydra-70 rounds are air-to-surface missiles that are commonly used aboard American helicopters and airplanes for providing close-air support. Although there is some speculation that these missiles may be used on drones or ground vehicles, it is more probable that they will be utilized to support the resurgence of Ukrainian air units in providing close-air support.

The war in Ukraine is a case study on the role of technology on the modern battlefield. The air war was expected to factor in critically in the war; however, air defense equipment played a large role in denying both sides use of the airspace. As the war continues, new Ukrainian air defense capabilities from NATO coupled with the destruction of Russian air defense assets may lead to the Ukrainians opening their airspace as their counter-offensive looms.

Ukraine Is Neutralizing Russian Air Defense Systems Ahead Of The Counteroffensive