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  1. #2826
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    Ukraine to receive 120-140 tanks in 'first wave' of deliveries: Minister

    That is more Leopard 2's than most individual EU nations possess. Combined with the Bradley's and Marder IFV's that is going to be a massively potent force.

    KYIV: Ukraine will receive 120 to 140 Western tanks in a "first wave" of deliveries from a coalition of 12 countries, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday (Jan 31).

    Kyiv secured pledges from the West this month to supply main battle tanks to help fend off Russia's full-scale invasion, with Moscow mounting huge efforts to make incremental advances in eastern Ukraine.

    "The tank coalition now has 12 members. I can note that in the first wave of contributions, the Ukrainian armed forces will receive between 120 and 140 Western-model tanks," Kuleba said during an online briefing.

    He said those tanks would include the German Leopard 2, the British Challenger 2 and the US M1 Abrams, and thatSUkraine was also "really counting" on supplies of French Leclerc tanks being agreed.

    Kuleba gave no timeline for any of the deliveries. Time will also be needed for training with the tanks.

    Kuleba said Kyiv was working behind the scenes to win over more countries to supply tanks at what officials say is a critical time in the war.

    "... We continue to work on both expanding the membership of the tank coalition and increasing the contributions of those already pledged," he said.

    Kyiv plans to launch a major counteroffensive to recapture swathes of territory taken by Russia in the south and east of the country.

    The United States has told Kyiv to hold off on those plans until Western military assistance has arrived in Ukraine.

    Ukraine is also concerned that Russia could launch its own major offensive in the coming weeks or months.

    Ukraine to receive 120-140 tanks in 'first wave' of deliveries: Minister - CNA

  2. #2827
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    Russia’s Ukraine War Effort Fueled by Turkish Exports

    Time to toss Turkey out of NATO...

    ISTANBUL—Turkish companies last year exported tens of millions of dollars worth of machinery, electronics, spare parts and other items that Russia needs for its military, according to a survey of trade data, showing how Moscow can fuel its war effort despite international sanctions.

    At least 13 Turkish firms exported a total of at least $18.5 million worth of items, including plastics, rubber items and vehicles, to at least 10 Russian companies sanctioned by the U.S. for their role in Russia’s assault on Ukraine, the data show. The Turkish companies sent at least three shipments of American-made goods, according to the data reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

    Turkish firms also sent another $15 million in American-made elevators, electric generators, circuit boards and other items to Russia in violation of U.S. export controls designed to starve Russia of vital military equipment from March to October 2022, the data show.

    The U.S. and more than 30 other countries imposed sanctions on Russia last year in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, attempting to deprive the Kremlin of funds, weapons and technologies it needs to wage war. Turkey, which is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally, is among a number of countries that have said they won’t enforce those sanctions.

    Now nearly a year after the invasion, the U.S. is pressuring third countries like Turkey to cooperate with key aspects of the sanctions. Senior U.S. Treasury officials this week visited Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Oman to clamp down on Russian military-procurement networks in the region.

    The visit comes after top U.S. officials warned Turkey late last year that Turkish individuals could face fines and jail time for servicing U.S.-made aircraft flying to and from Russia in violation of export controls, the Journal reported.

    The warnings are a test of whether the U.S. and its allies can succeed in isolating Russia over the long term, or whether Moscow can ease the impact of sanctions by trading with major economies like Turkey, China, India and Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf region.

    “Treasury will continue to aggressively enforce its sanctions, and individuals and institutions operating in permissive jurisdictions risk potentially losing access to G7 markets,” the Treasury department said in a statement about the Middle East visits this week.

    Turkey’s foreign ministry and Russia’s Ministry for Industry and Trade and Federal Customs office didn’t respond to requests for comment on the exports.

    Turkish officials say the country only enforces sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council, not those imposed by countries like the U.S. The Turkish foreign ministry also says it doesn’t condone attempts to evade sanctions on Russia.

    The longer a regime like this is in place, it’s a bit of a game of whack-a-mole. We’ve never had a sanctions regime of this magnitude on such a big economy,” said Tobias Gehrke, a Berlin-based expert on geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

    “Being able to show in the first wave that some of these key hubs can be persuaded or can be forced to close a little bit, that could be quite a powerful sign,” he said of U.S. pressure on Turkey.

    Among the sanctioned Russian companies that received items from Turkey were a subsidiary of Russia’s Tactical Missiles Corp., which makes weapons systems for the Russian navy and Promtekhnologiya, which was sanctioned for making rifles for the Russian armed forces. The missile corporation didn’t respond to a request for comment. Promtekhnologiya couldn’t be reached for comment.

    In addition to trying to starve Russia of weapons, U.S. officials are also attempting to cut off Russia’s sources of essential items used to make military hardware. Rubber, for example, is used to make plates that protect Russia’s T-80 battle tanks. U.S. sanctions and export controls also take aim at plastics which Russia needs to build tanks, ships, helmets and body armor.

    The items that Russia acquired from Turkey also included steering wheels for trucks and U.S.-made filters for engines, the data show. Russia imported nearly $8 million in American-made conveyors and elevators in violation of U.S. export controls.

    U.S. efforts to shut down Russia’s military procurement networks comes amid warnings from senior Ukrainian and Western officials that Russia is preparing for a major new assault on Ukraine comparable to its initial full-scale attack on the country in February 2022. The head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council said this week that such an attack could come within weeks.

    The Turkish government led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has played all sides of the Russia-Ukraine war, selling armed drones and armored vehicles to the Ukrainian military while also deepening economic ties with Russia.

    https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/rus...ts-11675447477

  3. #2828
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    No foul in taking advantage of others idiocy. I'm afraid the 'International community' does not mean most of the world, and the Russian economy this year will do better than the German and UK economies, according to the IMF. All hail the Neocons for their latest bright idea! Turkey will do better though.

  4. #2829
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    I know the UK is having real problems but I understand so now is Russia. What I see on youtube suggests Russia is in deep shit. When you come across reasonable sources saying Russia will be fine sabang, I'm interested.

    I see the sanctions as decades long sanctions. They are needed to make it more difficult for Russia to invade other countries. The sanctions need to keep being tweaked to shrink the Russian economy a little each year for the next 20 plus years. They will be devastating. Countries such as Turkey also need their arse kicked.

  5. #2830
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    Beaten Twice In Ukraine, Russia’s Elite 1st Guards Tank Army Is Poised To Attack Yet

    Beaten Twice In Ukraine, Russia’s Elite 1st Guards Tank Army Is Poised To Attack Yet Again

    Looking for a third beat down...

    The Russian army apparently is repositioning heavy forces in advance of a widely-anticipated winter offensive in Luhansk Oblast in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

    The forces include elements of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, which has spent months in Belarus, recovering from its near-destruction by Ukrainian brigades during two previous, large-scale operations.

    A Luhansk offensive would be the 1st Guards Tank Army’s third chance to prove itself in Ukraine. Or, alternatively, a third chance for Ukrainian forces to wreck the formation.

    “Ukrainian intelligence relatedly noted that elements of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District have withdrawn from Belarus and partially deployed to Luhansk Oblast,” the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War noted on Wednesday.

    The 1st Guard Tank Army oversees two front-line divisions—the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and the 4th Guards Tank Division—plus a few separate brigades. Perhaps 25,000 or 30,000 troops, in all.

    With its hundreds of T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks and BMP-2 and BMP-3 fighting vehicles, the Moscow-based army on paper is one of the most powerful ground-combat formations in the world.
    In reality, it has suffered from the same poor leadership and logistical shortfalls that have vexed all Russian forces in Ukraine.

    The 1st Guards Tank Army’s initial embarrassment came in the first few weeks of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, as Russian troops rolled south from Belarus and southern Russia, aiming to capture Kyiv and bring the war to a swift end.

    The tank army met stiff resistance around Chernihiv, 60 miles north of Kyiv. The Ukrainian 1st Tank Brigade deployed its 100 T-64 tanks into the forests around Chernihiv and engaged the passing Russians at point-blank range.

    The Russians outnumbered the Ukrainians around Chernihiv. But the Ukrainians fought harder and smarter, analysts Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained in a study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

    “Better crew training combined with short-ranged engagements where their armament was competitive, and the faster autoloader on the T-64, allowed Ukrainian tank crews to achieve significant damage against surprised Russian units,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds wrote.

    For six weeks the Ukrainian brigade and its supporting territorials held out in Chernihiv. Critically, the Russian battalions rolling past Chernihiv never fully cut off the city.

    In late March, the Kremlin ordered its battered forces around Kyiv to retreat. That’s when the 1st Tank Brigade, still holding out in Chernihiv, counterattacked.

    By the time the Russian army retreated back to Belarus and southern Russia, the 1st Guards Tank Army’s 2nd Motor Rifle Division had suffered “major losses,” according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.

    The 1st Guards Tank Army’s other division, the 4th Tanks Guards Division, suffered its own disaster six months later around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city just 25 miles from the Russian border in northeastern Ukraine.

    In late August and early September, Ukrainian brigades based in free Kharkiv launched a major counteroffensive that, in a heady few weeks of fast fighting, routed Russian troops in the northeast—including the 4th Guards Tank Division.

    The Ukrainian 4th Tank Brigade’s T-72s and T-64s hit the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division hard outside Izium.

    By the time the Russian division retreated north toward the Russian border, it had lost around 90 T-80U tanks that independent analysts could confirm. That’s half the tanks the division should possess at full strength.

    Beaten twice, the 1st Guards Tank Army settled into garrison in Belarus for a long winter reset. But heavy ongoing losses in Ukraine prevented the Kremlin from sending the tank army the best people and equipment.

    The army’s 2nd Motor Rifle Division “is now primarily made up of mobilized personnel operating older equipment taken from storage,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated. “Its combat effectiveness will likely be limited despite several weeks of training.”

    Ready or not, the 1st Guards Tank Army units that have redeployed to Luhansk apparently are poised for a major attack. “The array of conventional forces across the Luhansk Oblast front line suggests that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in this sector,” ISW explained.

    The timing probably is no accident. Ukraine’s allies in recent weeks have pledged hundreds of high-end tanks and fighting vehicles to the Ukrainian war effort. They include American M-1 tanks, German Leopard 2 tanks, British Challenger 2 tanks and some of Sweden’s best fighting vehicles and mobile howitzers.

    The Ukrainian army could form around these vehicles several powerful new tank and mechanized brigades. But the Russians’ Luhansk offensive might begin before those new forces are ready for combat.

    It’s now or never for the 1st Guard Tank Army. The army’s prospects at best are uncertain in this, its possible third major operation in Ukraine. But they’ll be even less certain once the Ukrainians have deployed their new tanks.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=37630fa91055

  6. #2831
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    Russian Marines Just Attempted Another Frontal Assault On Ukrainian Positions Around

    Russian Marines Just Attempted Another Frontal Assault On Ukrainian Positions Around Pavlivka. The Result Was Predictably Bloody.


    Three months after it got wrecked trying and failing to punch through Ukrainian defenses, the Russian navy’s unhappiest marine brigade is back in action. And apparently getting beaten, again.

    The bewildering and tragic plight of the 155th Marine Brigade is a reminder of one of the fundamental flaws in Russia’s war effort, nearly a year into the wider invasion of Ukraine.

    Russian planners and commanders seem to be incapable of learning even the simplest battlefield lessons. For example: support your infantry with artillery. Don’t attack uphill. Try flanking the enemy.

    The 155th Marine Brigade back in November suffered devastating losses in sloppy, frontal attacks against entrenched Ukrainians around Pavlivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Last week, the brigade tried the same dumb tactics against an even more fortified foe in nearby Vuhledar—and seemingly suffered yet another horrific defeat.

    “Another—there have been several dozen of them in 11 months—attempt to ram the long-term defense of the armed forces of Ukraine on the Donetsk front with frontal strikes resulted only in local tactical successes with very serious losses,” Igor Strelkov, a former colonel in Russia's FSB intelligence agency and a prominent Russian ultranationalist, lamented on his Telegram channel.

    The Russian Pacific Fleet’s 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade—a.k.a., the 155th Marine Brigade—has been one of the main Russian formations around Russian-occupied Pavlivka, 28 miles southwest of Donetsk, since last summer.

    The Vladivostok-based unit, with its 3,000 troops and hundreds of T-80 tanks, BMP-3 and BTR-82 fighting vehicles, has been in Ukraine since Russia widened its eight-year war on Ukraine back in late February.

    The 155th Marine Brigade reportedly lost 63 troops in a doomed, two-day frontal assault on Ukrainian positions around Pavlivka on or before Nov. 4. It apparently was one of the worst single-operation losses for the small Russian marine corps since before the Chechen wars in the 1990s.

    A local artillery mismatch helps to explain the marines’ heavy casualties. Without enough 122-millimeter shells of its own, the 155th Marine Brigade couldn’t suppress Ukraine’s big guns. Its troopers were defenseless against Ukrainian barrages.

    “Either the country will mass-produce 122-millimeter shells, or it will mass-produce coffins,” a Russian officer told one blogger in reference to the earlier Pavlivka fight.

    Russian forces claim succes in Vuhledar.

    They got annihilated by UA artillery. Russian naval inf. from the 155th (who got decimated in Pavlivka) and the 40th took big losses inflicted by the AFU 72th mech.

    RU is pinned down in Mykil's'ke. 47.762435494562475, 37.317802925249566

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...00853964402688

    The Ukrainian army’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade—one of Kyiv’s better heavy units—inflicted most of the casualties in that November bloodbath. The same Ukrainian brigade then spent the next three months digging in even deeper around Pavlivka and surrounding settlements, including Vuhledar.

    Strelkov described Vuhledar, which straddles the local high ground, as a “fortress.”

    The 72nd Mechanized Brigade, along with the Ukrainian 68th Jaeger Brigade, was ready when the 155th Marine Brigade and supporting paratroopers attacked uphill on or around Thursday.

    The assault was in trouble from the start. Having apparently failed, once again, to source adequate supplies of 122- and 152-millimeter artillery shells, the brigade deployed its T-80 tanks to fire their 125-millimeter main guns at high angles—effectively functioning as artillery, albeit inaccurate, short-range artillery.

    Both the Ukrainian and Russian armies train their tankers, in an emergency, to function as artillery crews. But indirect tank-fire is no replacement for dedicated artillery. Thus the 155th Marine Brigade’s doomed troopers advanced on Vuhledar at a dangerous disadvantage against the 72nd Mechanized Brigade with its ex-Norwegian M-109 mobile howitzers.

    “After initial successes and breaking through the front lines of the enemy's defenses, the offensive stuck due to heavy losses in the infantry assault units, lack of artillery ammunition and—in general—poor technical support for the attacking units and their low staffing,” Strelkov wrote.

    Ukrainian missile teams lay in wait for the Russian marines who managed to get through the artillery fire. One video from the 72nd Mechanized Brigade depicts Javelin missile strikes on two T-80 tanks and a BMP-3 fighting vehicle from the 155th Marine Brigade. A photo that appeared on Telegram purports to depict a trench filled with dead Russian marines.

    Several days later the fog of war still is thick around Vuhledar, but it appears the Ukrainians have held on. Whether and when the 155th Marine Brigade attempts a third, unsupported frontal assault around Pavlivka depends on whether its leaders can learn anything from past defeat.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=468f65a561c4

  7. #2832
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    Ukraine will fight to hold on to its "fortress" of Bakhmut, Zelensky says

    Ukraine will fight to hold on to the eastern city of Bakhmut for as long as it can, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday.


    "No one will surrender Bakhmut. We will fight as long as we can. We consider Bakhmut our fortress," Zelensky said at a news conference in Kyiv alongside top European Union officials following a Ukraine-EU summit.
    Zelensky also urged the West to supply long-range weapons to help Kyiv stay in Bakhmut and push Russian troops out of the Donbas region.


    The Ukrainian president said that Russia wants revenge for its military failures.


    "Russia wants revenge. Revenge in the east where they didn't succeed. They want to take the east. Our task is not to give them this chance by strengthening our army with necessary weapons. I think we have every chance," Zelensky said.


    Ukrainian officials have said in recent weeks they believe Russia is preparing for a spring offensive.


    What else happened at the summit: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that a 10th round of EU sanctions against Russia is "on its way."


    The sanctions on Russia should be targeted at stopping Moscow from rebuilding its military capability, Zelensky said.


    Von der Leyen also commended Zelensky on his domestic reform work in his country's bid for EU membership.


    “Your determination to forge ahead is impressive. You're taking important steps with all the reforms forward to meet the recommendations, and we should not forget you are doing this while you are fighting against an aggressor,” she said.


    “Rest assured that your progress will be reflected in our important enlargement report that is due in autumn for the member states," she added.

    Ukraine will fight to hold on to its "fortress" of Bakhmut, Zelensky says

  8. #2833
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    How many months now has Russia been trying to take Bakhmut?


  9. #2834
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    Former Israeli PM Bennett Says US ‘Blocked’ His Attempts at a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal

    Bennett says the US and its Western allies decided to 'keep striking Putin' and not negotiateby Dave DeCamp Posted onFebruary 5, 2023CategoriesNewsTagsIsrael, Russia, Ukraine

    Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett



    that the US and its Western allies “blocked” his efforts of mediating between Russia and Ukraine to bring an end to the war in its early days.

    On March 4, 2022, Bennett traveled to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin. In the interview, he detailed his mediation at the time between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which he said he coordinated with the US, France, Germany, and the UK.

    Bennett said that both sides agreed to major concessions during his mediation effort. For the Russian side, he said they dropped “denazification” as a requirement for a ceasefire. Bennett defined “denazification” as the removal of Zelensky. During his meeting in Moscow with Putin, Bennett said the Russian leader guaranteed that he wouldn’t try to kill Zelensky.

    The other concession Russia made, according to Bennett, is that it wouldn’t seek the disarmament of Ukraine. For the Ukrainian side, Zelensky “renounced” that he would seek NATO membership, which Bennett said was the “reason” for Russia’s invasion.

    Reports at the time reflect Bennet’s comments and said Russia and Ukraine were softening their positions. Citing Israeli officials, Axios reported on March 8 that Putin’s “proposal is difficult for Zelensky to accept but not as extreme as they anticipated. They said the proposal doesn’t include regime change in Kyiv and allows Ukraine to keep its sovereignty.”

    Discussing how Western leaders felt about his mediation efforts, Bennett said then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson took an “aggressive line” while French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were more “pragmatic.” Bennett said President Biden adopted “both” positions.

    But ultimately, the Western leaders opposed Bennet’s efforts. “I’ll say this in the broad sense. I think there was a legitimate decision by the West to keep striking Putin and not [negotiate],” Bennett said.

    When asked if the Western powers “blocked” the mediation efforts, Bennet said, “Basically, yes. They blocked it, and I thought they were wrong.”

    Explaining his decision to mediate, Bennett said that it was in Israel’s national interest not to pick a side in the war, citing Israel’s frequent airstrikes in Syria. Bennett said Russia has S-300 air defenses in Syria and that if “they press the button, Israeli pilots will fall.”

    Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine didn’t stop with Bennett’s efforts. Later in March, Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Istanbul, Turkey, and followed up with virtual consultations. According to the account of former US officials speaking to Foreign Affairs, the two sides agreed on the framework for a tentative deal. Russian officials, including Putin, have said publicly that a deal was close following the Istanbul talks.

    But the negotiations ultimately failed after more Western pressure. Boris Johnson visited Kyiv in April 2022, urging Zelensky not to negotiate with Russia. According to a report from Ukrainska Pravda, he said even if Ukraine was ready to sign a deal with Russia, Kyiv’s Western backers were not.

    Later in April, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said there were some NATO countries that wanted to prolong the war in Ukraine. “After the talks in Istanbul, we did not think that the war would take this long … But, following the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, it was the impression that… there are those within the NATO member states that want the war to continue, let the war continue and Russia gets weaker. They don’t care much about the situation in Ukraine,” Cavusoglu said.

    A few days after Cavusoglu’s comments, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin admitted that one of the US’s goals in supporting Ukraine is to see Russia “weakened.”

    https://news.antiwar.com/2023/02/05/former-israeli-pm-bennett-says-us-blocked-his-attempts-at-a-russia-ukraine-peace-deal/

  10. #2835
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    When asked if the Western powers “blocked” the mediation efforts, Bennet said, “Basically, yes. They blocked it, and I thought they were wrong.”
    Did ya Mr. Bennet. Putin keeps all invaded territories and gives up fuck all. Laughable!

  11. #2836
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    Not got better since though, has it? I think some early Russian stuff-ups gave the NATO/ State Dept brains trust a false sense of optimism, and stoked confirmation bias.

  12. #2837
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    I think some early Russian stuff-ups
    Yep. Invading Ukraine near a year ago tops the list of stuff ups.

  13. #2838
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    I have to agree- although this was not just a Russian stuff-up. Whatever Russia 'wins' from this will be Pyrrhic- but what Ukraine is losing, is catastrophic (and I don't just mean some territory in the east). It should have been avoided.

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    Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Tactics

    WASHINGTON — The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials.

    While the officials caution that casualties are notoriously difficult to estimate, particularly because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, they say the slaughter from fighting in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and the town of Soledar has ballooned what was already a heavy toll.

    With Moscow desperate for a major battlefield victory and viewing Bakhmut as the key to seizing the entire eastern Donbas area, the Russian military has sent poorly trained recruits and former convicts to the front lines, straight into the path of Ukrainian shelling and machine guns. The result, American officials say, has been hundreds of troops killed or injured a day.

    Russia analysts say that the loss of life is unlikely to be a deterrent to Mr. Putin’s war aims. He has no political opposition at home and has framed the war as the kind of struggle the country faced in World War II, when more than 8 million Soviet troops died. U.S. officials have said that they believe that Mr. Putin can sustain hundreds of thousands of casualties in Ukraine, although higher numbers could cut into his political support.

    Ukraine’s casualty figures are also difficult to ascertain, given Kyiv’s reluctance to disclose its own wartime losses. But in Bakhmut, hundreds of Ukrainian troops have been wounded and killed daily at times as well, officials said. Better trained infantry formations are kept in reserve to safeguard them, while lesser prepared troops, such as those in the territorial defense units, are kept on the front line and bear the brunt of shelling.

    The last public Biden administration estimate of casualties came last November, when Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that more than 100,000 troops on each side had been killed and wounded since the war began. At the time, officials said privately that the numbers were closer to 120,000.

    “I would say it’s significantly well over 100,000 now,” General Milley said at a news conference last month in Germany, adding that the Russian toll included “regular military, and also their mercenaries in the Wagner Group.”

    At two meetings last month between senior military and defense officials from NATO and partner countries, officials said the fighting in the Donbas had turned into, as one of them put it, a meat grinder.

    On Norwegian TV on Jan. 22, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, Norway’s defense chief, said estimates were that Russia had suffered 180,000 dead and wounded, while Ukraine had 100,000 killed or wounded in action along with 30,000 civilian deaths. General Kristoffersen, in an email to The New York Times through his spokesman, said that there is “much uncertainty regarding these numbers, as no one at the moment are able to give a good overview. They could be both lower or even higher.”

    Senior U.S. officials said this week that they believe the number for Russia is closer to 200,000. That toll, in just 11 months, is eight times higher than American casualties in two decades of war in Afghanistan.

    The figures for Ukraine and Russia are estimates based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reports, as well as official reporting from both governments. Establishing precise numbers is extremely difficult, and estimates vary, even within the U.S. government.

    A senior U.S. military official last month described the combat around Bakhmut as savage. The two sides exchanged several thousand rounds of artillery fire each day, while the Wagner private military company, which has been central to Russia’s efforts there, had essentially begun using recruited convicts as cannon fodder, the official told reporters. He spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details.

    The convicts took the brunt of the Ukrainian response while the group’s more seasoned fighters moved in behind them to claim ground, the official said. Wagner has recruited some 50,000 troops to fight in Ukraine, according to senior American military and defense officials.

    Thousands of the convicts have been killed, a loss of life that has shocked American officials, who say the strategic value of Bakhmut simply is not in line with the price Russia has paid.

    In an interview on Tuesday, a senior Defense Department official pointed to myriad military supply and tactical problems to explain the Russian tactics. The Russian military is running low on critical supplies and replenishment, said Colin H. Kahl, the under secretary of defense for policy. “They’re running low on artillery. They’re running low on standoff munitions, and they are substituting by sending convicts in human waves into places like Bakhmut and Soledar.”

    The Russian military has been following the Wagner playbook and deliberately using the poorly trained troops to draw, and deplete, Ukrainian fire, senior American military and defense officials said.
    Kusti Salm, Estonia’s deputy defense minister, in a briefing with reporters in Washington last week, said that Russia was better able to stand its losses than Ukraine.

    “In this particular area, the Russians have employed around 40,000 to 50,000 inmates or prisoners,” Mr. Salm said. “They are going up against regular soldiers, people with families, people with regular training, valuable people for the Ukrainian military.”

    “So the exchange rate is unfair,” he added. “It’s not one to one because for Russia, inmates are expendable. From an operational perspective, this is a very unfair deal for the Ukrainians and a clever tactical move from the Russian side.”

    Moscow has thrown people it sees as expendable into battles for decades, if not centuries. During World War II, Joseph Stalin sent close to one million prisoners to the front. Boris Sokolov, a Russia historian, describes in a piece called “Gulag Reserves” in the Russian opposition magazine Grani.ru that an additional one million “special settlers”— deportees and others viewed by the Soviet government as second-class citizens — were also forced to fight during World War II.

    “In essence, it does not matter how big the Russian losses are, since their overall human resource is much greater than Ukraine’s,” Mr. Salm, the Estonian official, said in a follow-up email. “In Russia the life of a soldier is worth nothing. A dead soldier, on the other hand, is a hero, regardless of how he died. All lost soldiers can be replaced, and the number of losses will not shift the public opinion against the war.”

    nytimes.com

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    I think some early Russian stuff-ups gave the NATO/ State Dept brains trust a false sense of optimism, and stoked confirmation bias.
    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    It should have been avoided.
    You really are a clown who lives on another planet for from reality.

  16. #2841
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    Yada yada. Good luck with your backpedalling.

  17. #2842
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Good luck with your backpedalling.
    Something you have been doing since this war started. Constantly wrong about basically everything. You have been caught out numerous times, and it has been pointed out to you by several posters.

  18. #2843
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    Yawwn. Is the Winter 'thunder run' a tad late snubski? Is the fact that the Russians were not driven out of Ukraine by Xmas a tad inconvenient? Is the fact that someone who has been caught spruiking so many falsehoods, to now accuse all other viewpoints as being liars just a wee bit, excruciatingly embarrassing?

  19. #2844
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    It's taken the world's second largest army 6 months to capture about 60 Sq. kms. That's got to be a tad embarrassing.

    Day 347 of the 3 day "special military operation".

  20. #2845
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    so many falsehoods, to now accuse all other viewpoints as being liars just a wee bit, excruciatingly embarrassing?
    What viewpoints? The Russian propaganda you post is not a 'viewpoint' it is propaganda. Sadly you do not seem capable of noticing the difference which would explain why you swallow so much of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Is the fact that the Russians were not driven out of Ukraine by Xmas a tad inconvenient?
    So now you are fabricating statements I never made. You will stop at nothing to push your nonsensical false narrative.

  21. #2846
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Did ya Mr. Bennet. Putin keeps all invaded territories and gives up fuck all. Laughable!
    What a fucking douchebag.

    Probably getting backhanders from the high-heeled midget.

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    Ukraine army discipline crackdown sparks fear and fury on the front

    Critics say new legislation that punishes deserters and rule-breakers more harshly contravenes human rights and demotivates military personnel.

    KYIV — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy refused to veto a new law that strengthens punishment for wayward military personnel on Thursday, rejecting a petition signed by over 25,000 Ukrainians who argue it’s too harsh.

    “The key to the combat capability of military units and ultimately of Ukraine’s victory, is compliance with military discipline,” Zelenskyy said in his written response to the petition.

    Ukrainian soldiers have stunned the world with their resilience and battlefield successes, withstanding a year-long onslaught from Russian troops. But among Kyiv’s forces, made up largely of fresh recruits lacking previous military experience or training, some are struggling to cope. There are those who have rebelled against commanders’orders, gotten drunk or misbehaved; others, running low on ammunition and morale, have fled for their lives, abandoning their positions.

    Seeking to bring his forces into line, Zelenskyy in January signed into force a punitive law that introduces harsher punishment for deserters and wayward soldiers, and strips them of their right to appeal. The law aims to standardize and toughen the repercussions for rule-breaking, improving discipline and the combat readiness of military units. Disobedience will be punishable by five to eight years in prison, rather than the previous two to seven; desertion or failure to appear for duty without a valid reason by up to 10 years. Threatening commanders, consuming alcohol, questioning orders and many other violations will also be dealt with more harshly, potentially with prison time; those who broke these rules in the past may have gotten away with a probation period or the docking of their combat pay.

    Those who lobbied in favor of the new law, such as the Ukrainian Army General Staff, argue it will make discipline fairer: Previously, because courts adjudicated infractions on a case-by-case basis, some perpetrators were able to escape punishment for serious rule-breaking entirely, while others received harsher sentences for less significant violations, according to an explanatory note that accompanied the new law.

    But soldiers, lawyers and human rights watchdogs have slammed the measures as an inappropriate and blunt instrument that won’t deal with the root causes of military indiscipline — and over 25,000 Ukrainians called on the president to veto the law altogether in a petition submitted to the president late last year.

    The new punitive rules remove discretion and turn courts into a “calculator” for doling out punishment to soldiers, regardless of the reasons for their offenses, lawyer Anton Didenko argued in a column on Ukraine’s Interfax news agency.

    “This law will have negative consequences for the protection of the rights of military personnel who are accused of committing a crime and will reduce the level of motivation during service,” an NGO, called the Reanimation Package of Reforms Coalition, said in a statement. “This can carry risks both for the protection of human rights and for the defense capability of the state.”

    Zelenskyy’s military commanders disagree, arguing the measures are necessary to hold firm in the face of Russia’s assault.

    FULL-
    Ukraine army discipline crackdown sparks fear and fury on the front – POLITICO

  23. #2848
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Uncle Sam says,

    "Desertion carries a maximum punishment of dishonorable discharge, forfeiture of all pay, and confinement of five years. For desertion during a time of war, however, the death penalty may be applied (at the discretion of the court-martial)."

    Failure to Report for Duty: Desertion, AWOL, and Other Charges - FindLaw).
    "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect,"

  24. #2849
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    No australian soldier has been executed for desertion through the 1st world war onwards. Although executions were carried out on Commonwealth soldiers, the Australian govt refused the british to have jurisdiction over Australian soldiers. Many of those who were shot would now be diagnosed with PTSD. It was felt that as the australian forces in WW1 were volunteers, they should not be subjected to the death penalty however offenders were listed in Australian newspapers as deserters.
    The death penalty has been removed in both military and civil law in Australia now for around 50 years.
    Last edited by Hugh Cow; 08-02-2023 at 04:07 AM.

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    The EU’s energy war with Russia has entered a new phase — and there are signs that the Kremlin is starting to feel the pain.

    As of Sunday, it is illegal to import petroleum products — those refined from crude oil, such as diesel, gasoline and naphtha — from Russia into the EU. That comes hot on the heels of the EU’s December ban on Russian seaborne crude oil.

    Both measures are also linked to price caps imposed by the G7 club of rich democracies aimed at driving down the price that Russia gets for its oil and refined products without disrupting global energy markets.

    Those actions appear to have bitten into the Kremlin’s budget in a way other economic penalties levied in retaliation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine have not.

    The Kremlin’s tax income from oil and gas in January was among its lowest monthly totals since the depths of COVID in 2020, according to Janis Kluge, senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    Kluge noted that while Russia’s 2023 budget anticipates 9 trillion rubles (€120 billion) in fossil fuel income, in January it earned only 425 billion rubles from oil and gas taxes, around half compared to the same month last year.

    It's only one month's figures and the income does fluctuate, but Kluge called it "a bad start."

    Russia’s gas sales to Europe have also collapsed — in part as a result of Moscow's own energy blackmail — with its share of imports declining from around 40 percent throughout 2021 to 13 percent for November 2022, according to the latest confirmed European Commission monthly figure.
    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

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