Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Russian barrage leaves at least 11 dead, Ukraine emergency officials say

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces fired another rash of missiles and self-exploding drones in nearly a dozen provinces of Ukraine early Thursday, causing the first attack-related death of the year in Kyiv and killing at least 11 people in all, according to Ukrainian authorities.


The attacks adhered to Russia’s recent pattern of striking power plants and other critical infrastructure about every two weeks. However, the latest onslaught came after Germany and the United States upped the ante in Russia’s 11-month war by promising Wednesday to send high-tech battle tanks to Ukraine and green-lighting other allies to do the same.

The spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, Oleksandr Khorunzhyi, said that in addition to the dead the casualties included at least 11 people who were wounded .


Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said one person was killed during the attacks, the city’s first such death since New Year’s Eve. Two others were injured, he said. The head of the Kyiv city administration, Serhii Popko, said Ukrainian air defenses shot down 15 cruise missiles heading to the area.


The regional prosecutor’s office in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia province said three people were killed and seven injured in a strike on an energy facility. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, said Thursday’s volley involved a total of 55 missiles, of which 47 were intercepted.


Self-exploding drones swept in overnight before the missile strikes. As air raid sirens echoed across the country, civilians, some tugging pet dogs on leashes, poured into subway stations, underground parking lots and basements to seek shelter.


It was the first such barrage of Russian firepower across the country since Jan. 14.


Russia has carried out massive strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities since early October, part of a strategy to try to hamper Ukrainian forces and to keep civilians in the cold and dark this winter before what many experts predict could be a springtime offensive as more conscripts reach the battlefields.


Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko acknowledged that some sites were hit, resulting in emergency power outages.


In Kyiv’s southern Holosiivsky district, Arkadii Kuritsyn, 53, said he heard a loud explosion that blew out windows of several trucks parked next to his scrap metal business and snapped several trees in a nearby wooded area in half.


But the strikes did not reach what appeared to be the intended target: a nearby district power plant. The industrial area has witnessed several missile attacks already, due to its proximity to the power station, said Andrii Tarasenko, 36, who works in a factory nearby.


“I am not surprised it was targeted again,” he said. “We’ve gotten used to it.”


In Hlevakha, an urban area about 35 kilometers (about 22 miles) southwest of the capital, a barrage of missiles followed a drone attack that damaged the two-story home of Halyna Panasian. The damage included a deep crater in the courtyard, a large hole in the roof and pieces of debris scattered about the house.


“I was in my bedroom when the house was hit. I had to crawl out through the destroyed walls,” Panasian, 59, said of the blast at about 2 a.m. “Such grief: What can I say? How can I have a happy life now? I can’t. I’m so sad. My life is broken.”


The attacks came a day after Germany said it would supply 14 high-tech Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine and authorize other European countries to send up to 88 more. The U.S. said it planned to ship 31 Abrams M1 tanks to Ukrainian forces.


Along with Germany and the U.S., Britain, Poland, the Netherlands and Sweden are among the nations that have sent or announced plans to supply hundreds of tanks and heavy armored vehicles to fortify Ukraine as it enters a new phase of the war and tries to break through entrenched Russian lines.


Gian Gentile, a U.S. Army veteran and senior historian with the Rand think tank, said the M1 Abrams and the Leopards would give Ukraine a “mechanized armored punching force.”


The British government said Thursday it would start training Ukrainian troops next week on how to use and fix Challenger 2 tanks. The U.K. is giving 14 of the tanks to Ukraine’s forces, and Defense Minister Alex Chalk said they should arrive in Ukraine by the end of March.


German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Ukrainian crews will start their training in Germany in coming days on German-made Marders, which are infantry fighting vehicles, while training on the heavier Leopard 2 tanks would start “a little later.”


“In any case, the aim with the Leopards is to have the first company in Ukraine by the end of March, beginning of April,” he added. “I can’t say the precise day.”


NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg declined to speculate on the timing of the tanks’ arrival but told Britain’s Sky News the “allies are extremely focused on the importance of speed.”


Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the move to provide Ukraine with modern tanks reflected the West’s growing involvement in the conflict.


“Both European capitals and Washington keep saying that the delivery of various kinds of weapons systems, including tanks, to Ukraine, absolutely does not mean the involvement of these countries or the alliance in the hostilities ongoing in Ukraine,” Peskov told reporters. “We categorically disagree with that.”


“Moscow views everything that has been done by the alliance and the capitals I have mentioned as direct involvement in the conflict,” he added. “We can see it growing.”


French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, who happened to be in Ukraine’s Black Sea port city of Odesa on Thursday, in part to meet with Ukraine’s foreign minister. told France’s LCI television that Thursday’s attacks went beyond retaliation.


“What we saw this morning — that is, new strikes on civilian installations — that is not making war. It is making war crimes.”


Russian barrage leaves at least 11 dead, Ukraine emergency officials say | PBS NewsHour

Escalation is mutual, much like an arms race. I think it gets us nowhere, and has much possible downside.

Originally Posted by sabang

Escalation is mutual, much like an arms race. I think it gets us nowhere, and has much possible downside.

Of coase it is. Always the case in war. At some point the war will end but only when one side destroys the other sides will and means to carry on.

Originally Posted by sabang

Escalation is mutual, much like an arms race. I think it gets us nowhere, and has much possible downside.

Escalation is something Putin does every time he thinks he's going to lose.

Then when you see the Defence Dept HQ, Parliament building, international Airport and other such things being targeted in Kiev by Russian hypersonic missiles, console yourself with the fact he is worried he might lose, and after all- they are only Ukrainian lives.

Russia has left itself much space for escalation. Do you think this is by accident?

Originally Posted by sabang

Russia has left itself much space for escalation

Do you mean nukes? I don't hink you do.

It would require a massive mobilization of troops and workers for the armament factories.

Originally Posted by sabang

Do you think this is by accident?

It's no accident. Putin knows it would be his downfall.

Day 338 of the 3 day "special military operation".

Ukraine is expected to begin receiving deliveries of Western-made tanks in the coming months after the U.S., U.K. and Germany decided to step up their support for the country amid its war with Russia.

The U.S. and Germany announced this week that they would be sending highly coveted M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Poland is also sending the Leopard 2 combat vehicles, while the U.K. announced this month that Challenger 2 tanks would be provided to Ukraine. Additional countries have committed to or at least expressed openness to delivering even more tanks to Ukraine.

In theory, Russian President Vladimir Putin has a stockpile large enough that it should allow him to deploy additional tanks to the battlefield as Ukraine's own tank supplies are bolstered by the West. The Military Balance 2021 database said that Russian storage facilities had around 10,200 tanks, The Kyiv Independent reported in September 2022. Newsweek was not able to independently verify the database figure and reached out to Russia's Defense Ministry for confirmation.

But Putin's regime would be faced with several major challenges if it actually looked to deploy tanks from his stockpile to Ukraine, according to experts.

Dan Soller, former U.S. Army intelligence colonel, told Newsweek that any tanks Russia does have in storage need trained crews to operate them. Assuming that all of Russia's estimated 10,000 tanks are operational—and they likely aren't—tens of thousands of personnel could be required to operate them, since each tank requires several people.

Soller said that he suspects many Russian tanks in storage haven't been "maintained effectively," and that some are used for spare parts. He believes that the "overwhelming majority" of them are likely not even operational.

David Silbey, associate professor of history at Cornell University and director of teaching and learning at Cornell in Washington, told Newsweek that it's "very unclear" how many tanks Russia can pull out of its stockpile and put back into action in Ukraine. He also said that the Russian tanks in storage have likely not been maintained very well, so there's a "pretty strong indication that they're not in great shape."

"It's not like a vending machine where you put in your money and get a working T-72," Silbey said, referring to a type of Russian tank.

On top of any issues with getting enough trained crews to operate the tanks, the tanks themselves would have to be made operational again. So while Russia's estimated stockpile could seem daunting to Ukrainians, "I can't imagine that they could get those on the battlefield all that quickly," Silbey said.

The Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks are predicted to begin arriving in Ukraine in the coming weeks or months, while the Abrams deliveries are expected to take longer.

Once Ukraine does deploy the tanks on the battlefield, the impact they will have in the war depends on how effectively they are put to use alongside other elements like artillery, other armored fighting vehicles, missiles, intelligence and communications.

"The numbers are potentially the least important aspect of this," Soller said. "What is most important is the orchestration. Think of it as a symphony, of bringing all the different parts of combined arms maneuver together to create intended effects on the battlefield."

https://www.newsweek.com/putins-stoc...d-east-1776944

Originally Posted by David48atTD

Note, this vid is from 3 years ago

whilst Stephen Hawking was still alive

Originally Posted by sabang

Then when you see the Defence Dept HQ, Parliament building, international Airport and other such things being targeted in Kiev by Russian hypersonic missiles, console yourself with the fact he is worried he might lose, and after all- they are only Ukrainian lives.

What makes you think that these hypersonic missiles (must be expensive) are the big break through. I wouldn't be surprised if they are a complete failure and are uncontrollable. Might hit a nuclear plant or the Red Square . Licking Ayatollahs asses for drones is enough prove that Russia is just a hyped up military.
I think history will show that this was the most dilettante and amateurish war ever fought. Just simply: "Made in Russia"

What makes you think that these hypersonic missiles (must be expensive) are the big break through.

No such thing as 'The big break through' imo. This wunderwaffen talk holds no sway with me, and hasn't since the US had a monopoly of nuclear weapons. What is true is that they cannot be intercepted by contemporary missile defence systems. They are also surprisingly accurate, and can even alter their trajectory in flight. In this regard, Russia and China definitely hold a technological edge over the US/ West at the moment. Do not expect it to last.

Originally Posted by sabang

This wunderwaffen talk holds no sway with me, and hasn't since the US had a monopoly of nuclear weapons.

I was just in the first day of my 9th year when the monopoly ended. Shortly thereafter I learned not to worry. Survival was assured if I got under my sturdy Canadian pine and steel desk.

Originally Posted by HermantheGerman

What makes you think that these hypersonic missiles (must be expensive) are the big break through.

Russia's hypersonic weapons. Part of the phantom forces. Like the T-14 Armata tanks, Su-57 and all the other fantasy kit. Russia is a paper tiger and a gas station, nothing more. As far from a superpower as it gets.

The US still has preppers ya know.

^ Another piece of hilarity from prof snubski.

Originally Posted by sabang

Another piece of hilarity from prof snubski.

So where are they? None of that junk has been used in Ukraine, even though Russia is clearly losing the war. The Armata tanks are junk, the Su-57 is as well, and the rest is just fantasy land crap.

None of that junk has been used in Ukraine

Untrue- do yer homework. But it is true that only a fraction of the Russian military is in Ukraine.

Originally Posted by sabang

Untrue- do yer homework.

I do not need to, as I already have. I am not talking about the propaganda crap you read. I am talking about reality. Armata tanks and Su-57s have not been used in Ukraine because they are fantasy land junk.

Originally Posted by sabang

In this regard, Russia and China definitely hold a technological edge over the US/ West at the moment.

on paper and as yet unproven in a conflict, i'm surprised Russia hasn't sent a couple into Ukr to demonstrate their effectiveness.

Originally Posted by malmomike77

i'm surprised Russia hasn't sent a couple into Ukr to demonstrate their effectiveness.

They did, and they were completely ineffective.

Pentagon: Russian hypersonic weapon use in Ukraine not a game-changer | The Hill

^ & ^^ clearly my MI5/6/7 contacts missed that

F-16s next

Ukraine aims for F-16 fighter jets after winning battle for tanks

Tactical nukes?

back on track

Poland to send 74 battle tanks to Kyiv

Poland will send 74 main battle tanks to Ukraine in a bid to further bolster the defences of Ukraine ahead of an expected Russian offensive, writes Joe Barnes.

Warsaw will be sending 14 German-made Leopard 2s, as well as 60 modernised Soviet-era tanks from its stocks.

“If we don't want Ukraine to to be defeated, we have to be very much open and brave in supporting Ukraine,” Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister, told Canada’s CTV News.

“These were the arguments and also if Ukraine, God forbid, fails in defending their sovereignty and freedom, it would mean only the first step in the Kremlin's mad strategy to rebuild the Russian Empire from the past. “

The latest donation was announced after the UK, US and Germany said they would send Nato-standard main battle tanks to Kyiv, which are expected to arrive before an expected Russian offensive this coming spring.

Poland to send 74 battle tanks to Kyiv

Russia Seeks Gains in Ukraine Before Western Tanks Arrive


Moscow’s forces press into Bakhmut while tanks pledged to Kyiv remain months away

Russian forces have advanced deeper into Bakhmut in recent days, according to Ukrainian soldiers there, moving house by house and threatening Ukraine’s hold on the eastern city, which Russia has made its main immediate target.


The Russian advance has been incremental and comes with heavy losses, Ukrainian commanders say. Ukrainian military and civilian leaders have said they would stand and fight for the city, and seek to whittle down Russian forces engaged in costly assaults.


Deeper Russian penetration into the city leaves Kyiv facing the choice of whether to pursue bloody street fighting or to withdraw to preserve troops. Ukrainian forces hold higher ground to the west of Bakhmut that is more easily defensible, and commanders have said the city holds little strategic value.


But Bakhmut has taken on a symbolic significance in recent months, as Russia seeks to expand its hold on the eastern Donbas region. Moscow has dispatched thousands of fighters from the paramilitary Wagner Group, many of them convicted criminals, in an effort to retake the city. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the city in December and called it “Fortress Bakhmut.”

He has suggested that Ukraine will stand firm and seek to bleed Russian forces.


“The more Russia loses in this battle for Donbas, the less its overall potential will be,” Mr. Zelensky said in his nightly address Thursday. “We know what the occupiers are planning. We are countering it.”


The Russian push comes as the war, approaching its first anniversary, has turned into a series of grinding battles along relatively static front lines, with neither side holding a clear upper hand.

Ukraine had taken the initiative last fall with a lightning assault in the northeast and an offensive in the south that reclaimed swaths of territory. But Moscow rushed tens of thousands of draftees and paramilitaries to shore up the front lines.


Russia is seeking a breakthrough here before the arrival of tanks pledged by Kyiv’s Western allies, which Ukraine says will help it slice through Russian lines and take back more territory.


The U.S. and European allies promised dozens of armored vehicles to Ukraine, including main battle tanks more powerful than the older models fielded by Russia.


A soldier from a tank unit operating Soviet-era T-72s in Bakhmut said Ukraine urgently needed that help. “They’ve seized a lot of positions, so the fight has become much harder,” he said. “We can hold the city, but only if we have help.”

Russia, meanwhile, appears to be banking on the brute force of waves of troops.


Ukrainian Lt. Oleksandr Matviyenko, the commander of a unit operating reconnaissance drones in Bakhmut, says that since Russia mobilized some 300,000 people and contracted thousands of criminals into Wagner, it has a seemingly endless supply of troops. “We mow down one group, then another comes, then another,” said Lt. Matviyenko.


He said Ukrainian forces could hold on in Bakhmut as long as their supply lines from the west remain intact. The bridges and roads in Chasiv Yar to the west, he said, are so far not being hit by Russian artillery.

The commander of a Ukrainian artillery unit positioned on a hill overlooking the city said he has had to replace the barrel of the Soviet-era gun he uses after firing 1,500 shells toward Russian positions in the past month. If they advance further into Bakhmut, he said, “the Russians will grind against it like cheese against a grater.”


Russia has in recent weeks taken Klishchiivka to the south and Soledar to the north, and is trying to surround Bakhmut from three directions. The city is being pounded daily by rockets, artillery and mortar fire, and small arms exchanges can be heard from the eastern side where Ukrainian and Russian units face off on two parallel streets.


The city center has become a ghost town. The only vehicles navigating the streets are dusty cars ferrying troops. Stray animals scavenge on heaps of trash left to rot by municipal workers who fled the city. Writing scrawled on the sides of buildings reads “Bakhmut is Ukraine” and “Russian pigs will die!”


At a children’s hospital on the western side of the city that now handles wounded Ukrainian soldiers, an arrow outside the entrance points left to a section marked “concussions,” and another points right toward a ward specializing in shrapnel wounds and serious injuries.


A paramedic at the hospital said earlier this week that he sleeps two hours a day and is reaching a breaking point. Two days later, Russia shelled the hospital, forcing the doctors and patients to move for the second time in the space of a month.


To the south, Ukrainian forces said on Friday they had repelled Russian attacks on Vuhledar and several other villages in the eastern Donetsk region over the preceding 24 hours. Serhiy Cherevatiy, spokesman for the armed forces in eastern Ukraine, said there was fierce fighting in Vuhledar but that Russia had failed to break through Ukrainian defenses.

Russia also launched 148 attacks along the front line with Ukrainian forces in the southern Zaporizhzhia region over the past day using tanks, rockets and artillery, the regional military administration said.


Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had undertaken more offensive maneuvers over the past 24 hours both in Zaporizhzhia and Vuhledar, where it said it had launched strikes on Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade and had downed a Ukrainian Su-25 warplane.


The European Union on Friday, meanwhile, extended its economic sanctions on Russia for the next six months. The decision affects a swath of sanctions imposed last year, from financial sanctions on Russian banks and its central bank to export and import bans.

There had been concerns that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban could push to weaken the sanctions package. In recent months, he has attacked the EU’s sanctions, especially the oil-import embargo on Moscow, saying they are more costly for Europe than for Russia. Decisions on sanctions are made by consensus among the EU’s 27 member states.


While Hungary stepped back from objecting to renewing the economic sanctions, it is pushing for the EU to drop sanctions on several Russian executives who have been blacklisted by the EU, according to several EU diplomats. A decision is due in March on rolling over these sanctions.


Russia’s Defense Ministry said Friday that its forces had launched a series of strikes over the past day on Ukrainian military and infrastructure targets that had disrupted the transfer of weapons, including those from countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, being delivered to the front.

Kyiv’s allies are rushing to assemble two battalions’ worth of Leopard 2 tanks from a range of European countries after Germany and the U.S. committed to provide their own tanks. The initial battalion is expected to arrive in Ukraine within three months.


Poland, which has been at the forefront of pushing for increased military support for Ukraine, on Friday said it would send 60 upgraded T-72 tanks—half of them Polish-made PT-91 Twardy tanks—in addition to its contribution of 14 Leopards.


The U.S. has also pledged 31 M1 Abrams tanks, but those will take much longer to arrive in Ukraine because they are being procured through the defense industry instead of being pulled from existing American defense stocks.

Mr. Zelensky has urged Western countries to speed up the delivery of tanks and the training of Ukrainian forces to use them as Russia regains initiative.


Russian officials have said the tanks won’t alter dynamics on the battlefield and will only lead to escalation in the war.


Stefano Sannino, secretary-general of the EU’s European External Action Service, said during a visit to Japan that German and U.S. tank provisions weren’t escalatory and were meant to help Ukrainians defend themselves, rather than making them attackers. The decision to supply them is in response to Russian escalation, Mr. Sannino said, accusing Moscow of carrying out indiscriminate attacks on civilians and cities.


The tanks will enable Ukraine to destroy enemy tanks, offer greater protection and support combined operations, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense said. Assessing recent Russian claims of advances, the ministry said Russian forces had likely conducted local, probing attacks near Vuhledar in the east and Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region but that Russia hadn’t achieved substantial gains.


Russian military sources are deliberately spreading misinformation in an effort to imply that the Russian operation is sustaining momentum, the ministry said.

Russia Seeks Gains in Ukraine Before Western Tanks Arrive - WSJ