Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Poland intends to transfer a company of German-developed Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Polish President Andrzej Duda told reporters Wednesday during a visit to western Ukraine, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda.

But Warsaw wants the tanks to be sent as part of a broader package of military aid backed by an international coalition, Duda said, suggesting that Poland will not unilaterally or immediately ship the advanced tanks to Ukraine. British officials also said this week that the country could send “game-changing” tanks to join the fight, though no specific plan or timeline was announced.

Duda made the remarks ahead of a meeting next week of the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany, where defense ministers from dozens of countries will gather to discuss Kyiv’s most urgent needs. Top U.S. officials and allies are expected to discuss next steps in military support, including the question of tanks.

The United States and Germany last week joined France in pledging armored combat vehicles to Ukraine, answering Kyiv’s call for new weapons at a moment when Ukrainian forces are trying to push back Russian forces in the south and east. The decisions were seen as a new phase in support for Ukraine, although armored combat vehicles fall short of Kyiv’s desire for Western main battle tanks, which countries backing the Ukrainian war effort have been reluctant to send.

Germany must approve the reexport of the Leopard tanks from Poland to Ukraine because they were manufactured in Germany. Steffen Hebestreit, a spokesman for the German Defense Ministry, said Berlin was not aware of such a request. The latest versions of the Leopards would probably outmatch most of Russia’s tanks in Ukraine, such as the T-72s.

A typical Polish tank company has 14 tanks, according to the Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform.

Zelensky said Kyiv expects a joint decision from European countries. A single country “cannot help us with ‘Leopards,’ because we are fighting against thousands of tanks of the Russian Federation,” he said in a statement after the meeting.

Although more than a dozen countries near Ukraine possess Leopard tanks, not all of the vehicles are in operable condition, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank. “The more that countries donate tanks, the easier it will be to share the burden of giving them away,” it said in a column last year.

Last week, Poland’s deputy foreign minister told Polish radio that Warsaw wants European countries to send more modern tanks to Ukraine like the Leopard. German lawmaker Sara Nanni, a member of a party in Germany’s ruling coalition, expressed support for Poland’s offer, tweeting a news story in which she was quoted as supporting plans to ship Leopards to Ukraine.

Finnish lawmaker Atte Harjanne, who has repeatedly demanded that Europe send Leopards to Ukraine, launched a “free the Leopards” campaign that aims to pressure Berlin to permit the shipments of the Leopards.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has also repeatedly asked for more advanced tanks. “To win faster we need tanks,” it tweeted on Jan. 6.

Two days later, it tweeted a more cryptic message. “Abrams or Leopard? What’s your bet?” the ministry said, in reference to the U.S.-designed M1 Abrams tank, which serves as the U.S. military’s main battle tank.

Ukraine’s supporters have shipped Soviet-era tanks to Kyiv since Russia’s invasion last year, but they have been hesitant to provide more modern armored vehicles until this month, when the United States pledged to send Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Germany promised a batch of Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles. France also announced a shipment of an unspecified number of its AMX-10 RC “light tanks,” a wheeled armored vehicle with a 105mm cannon that is also called a “tank destroyer.”

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last February,Poland and other NATO countries close to Russia have led the push to provide Ukraine with modern military gear. In March, less than a month after the start of the Russian invasion, Poland offered to send MiG-29 fighters to Kyiv, using a U.S. base in Germany — a move that Washington opposed out of fear it could provoke Moscow.

U.S. officials have expressed sympathy for Ukraine’s need for tanks. Last week, Laura Cooper, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense, told reporters that “we absolutely agree that Ukraine does need tanks.” She said that was partially why the United States has partnered with the Netherlands to provide Ukraine with refurbished Soviet-designed T-72 tanks.

Cooper said the United States and allies wanted to be sure that Ukraine could maintain modern Western tanks before agreeing to supply them. “We have to be cognizant of maintenance and sustainment considerations with tanks, and certainly we know that the Abrams tank, in addition to being a gas guzzler, is quite challenging to maintain,” she said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...mpany-ukraine/

It seems that the west are upping the anti with regard to weaponry which, if Ukraine falls, they will never see a return payment.

Like Putin, they will also pass the point of no return and must continue to supply the Ukraine with weapons until the bitter end.

Originally Posted by Loy Toy

Like Putin, they will also pass the point of no return and must continue to supply the Ukraine with weapons until the bitter end.

Ukraine is going to have to be supplied with NATO weapons going forward. There will simply be no other option, as it surely will not be able to buy arms from Russia.

Leopard 2s From Poland. Challenger 2s From The United Kingdom. All Of The Sudden, Ukraine Could Get Tanks From All Over Europe.

A dozen Leopard 2s from Poland. Potentially 10 Challenger 2s from the United Kingdom. As Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 11 months, Ukraine’s allies finally are beginning to pledge some of their heavy tanks to the Ukrainian war effort—but in tiny numbers, so far.

Expect those numbers to grow. Possibly by a lot.

The Ukrainian government for months has been pleading for its allies to provide modern, Western-made tanks to complement its arsenal of increasingly war-weary ex-Soviet tanks.

Polish president Andrzej Duda was the first to heed the call. During a visit to Lviv in western Ukraine on Wednesday, Duda announced Poland would donate a company of Leopard 2 tanks. A company might include a dozen or 14 vehicles.

“We have taken the decision to contribute a first package of tanks, a company of Leopard tanks, which, I hope, together with other companies of Leopard and other tanks that will be offered by other countries will .... be able to strengthen Ukraine’s defense,” Duda said.

The Leopard 2 is a German-made tank and Berlin holds the export license. Germany’s reluctance to involve itself with Ukraine’s offensive operations previously functioned as a virtual veto on any country—Poland, Spain, Finland, The Netherlands—donating its surplus Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

Duda’s announcement seems to imply that Germany’s resistance has softened. It’s perhaps no coincidence that the U.K. government this week signaled increasing willingness to donate around 10 Challenger 2 tanks—enough for a small company. Europe is coming around to being Ukraine’s tank-supplier.

The Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 are not new tanks. The Leopard 2 entered service with the German army in 1979. The Challenger 2 debuted in U.K. service in 1998. German manufacturer Rheinmetall steadily has upgraded the Leopard 2. British firm BAE Systems’ upgrades to the newer Challenger 2 have been somewhat less ambitious.

But both tanks still are among the best in the world. The 69-ton Leopard 2 with its 120-millimeter smoothbore gun perfectly balances speed, armor and firepower—like its cousin the American M-1 does.

The 71-ton Challenger 2 with its 120-millimeter rifled gun by contrast emphasizes armor protection and long-range firepower—somewhat at the expense of speed. The Leopard 2 can reach 43 miles per hour on road. The Challenger 2’s top road speed is just 37 miles per hour.

Both tanks have four crew and sophisticated day and night optics.

If the Ukrainians take to their new tanks—and there’s no reason to believe they won’t—expect more of each type to follow, perhaps as early as this spring.

Rheinmetall built more than 3,000 Leopard 2s, and many hundreds of them are in storage across Europe. Poland alone has around 250 Leopard 2s and, as it also is acquiring American-made M-1s, could give away its German-made tanks without jeopardizing its own national defense.

The British Army once possessed nearly 400 Challenger 2s but, after repeated cutbacks, now is upgrading just 150 or so of the tanks for future use. The United Kingdom could give away hundreds of Challenger 2s without making a dent in its own diminished armored corps.

It’s fair to ask why Poland and the United Kingdom don’t just donate all their surplus tanks, all at once.

Ukraine’s allies clearly believe it’s more efficient, and less disruptive to Ukrainian operations, gradually to dial up the supply of new weapons. Recall that, when the United States began supplying Ukraine with world-class High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems last spring, it also initially did so in small quantities.

Four, initially. Then another 20 in dribs and drabs. Then a big batch of 18.

There are good reasons for a ramp-up. First you hand over just enough new rocket-launchers or tanks to train a core contingent of Ukrainian crews and logisticians who then can train additional operators. At the same time, you help the Ukrainians to establish processes for supporting the new weapons.

“They need to know not just how to use the systems, but of course how to maintain the system,” Colin Kahl, U.S. the under-secretary of defense for policy, told reporters in June. “So, think of logistics, maintenance, things like that.”

The Ukrainian army’s logistics corps in particular faces a difficult winter and spring as begins supporting not just one or two new tanks types, but also American-made M-2 fighting vehicles, ex-German Marder fighting vehicles and AMX-10RC reconnaissance vehicles from France.

This eclectic mix of vehicles could get even more eclectic if the United States offers up some of the thousands of older M-1s it has in storage.

U.S. officials so far are being coy. “As has been the case since the beginning of this campaign, we maintain a very robust and ongoing dialogue with our Ukrainian partners and the international community to look at what Ukraine security assistance needs are based on the conditions on the battlefield,” Air Force brigadier general Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, told reporters on Tuesday.

“And so, we'll continue to have those conversations.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=6bd24e51d2f8

NATO to send surveillance planes to Romania to monitor Russian activity

BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) — NATO said Friday it plans to deploy three surveillance planes to Romania next week to perform reconnaissance missions and to “monitor Russian military activity ” within the 30-nation military alliance’s territory.


The Airborne Warning and Control System surveillance planes, or AWACS, belong to a fleet of 14 usually based in Germany. Three of the aircraft will be sent Tuesday to an airbase near Romania’s capital, Bucharest, on a mission expected to last several weeks, the 30-nation alliance said in a statement.


The planes “can detect aircraft hundreds of kilometers away, making them a key capability for NATO’s deterrence and defense posture,” NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said in a statement.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, NATO has bolstered its presence on Europe’s eastern flank, including by sending additional battlegroups to Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia.


AWACS have conducted “regular patrols over eastern Europe and the Baltic Sea region to track Russian warplanes near NATO borders” throughout the Russia-Ukraine war, the statement said.


The NATO planes, Boeing E-3s, were jointly purchased at a cost of almost $8 billion in 1977 at the height of the Cold War, when Jimmy Carter became U.S. president and as a missile crisis with the Soviet Union was beginning to fester in Europe.


Along with a small drone fleet in Italy, the planes are among the few military assets that NATO owns as an alliance. They’ve been routinely refurbished to ensure that they can keep flying until 2035.


Some of the planes were deployed in U.S. skies 24 hours after the September 11, 2001 attacks to help protect cities and nuclear power plants. Beyond their role as NATO’s eye in the sky, the planes can be used for air-policing, support in counter-terrorism or evacuation operations, and provide help during natural disasters.

NATO to send surveillance planes to Romania to monitor Russian activity | PBS NewsHour

Originally Posted by sabang

Thank you. But doesn't the milky bar kid kinda beg for it?

That is utter nonsense- the Donbas, indeed the whole of Luhansk and Donetsk are strongly pro-Russian. To say nothing of Crimea.

No doubt, when this debacle that should have been avoided is sorted out, both sides will claim victory. But neither side wins actually. "Oh but.... Yeh, right".

Whether they are pro russian or not is totally beside the point which you seem to fail to grasp.
Any change of sovereign borders will require a vote by the whole countries population. In Ukraines case, the Russian migrant population installed after the death of millions of ukrainians caused by Stalin, do have the option of migrating to Russia if that is their wish. Minority migrant populations do not have the right to join another country by annexing the territory they have moved to, otherwise their would be utter chaos.
We only have to look to places where borders are redrawn causing permanent instability, be it Pakistan, Bangla desh (remember the east and west pakistan war) let alone the legacy of partition. Then there is Kosovo and Serbia another picture of instability that will only manifest permanently in Ukraine for years to come if borders are not restored. Oh and have a look at the stability of Lebanon where Beirut was once considered the Paris of the M.E, before and after they allowed millions of migrants to enter. There are many more examples in Africa, too many to mention. Throw in Southern Thailand for good measure.
History shows repeatedly the option you so obviously champion is a recipe for permanent chaos, instability and disaster yet you persist in a doomed and historically proven unworkable cause.

Well no, England didn't get to vote on the Scottish & N.Ireland referendums, similarly not the rest of Canada on the Quebec Referendum.

Let the People decide. Get the UN to independently monitor a Referendum in Donetsk, Luhansk, maybe Zapo- and respect the outcome.

The Russian missile that wiped out an apartment block was designed to sink aircraft carriers and can't be shot down by Ukraine, says its airforce

At least 23 people have died after a Russian missile strike destroyed an apartment block in Dnipro, central Ukraine.


The building was hit by a Russian Kh-22 missile, a Soviet-era anti-ship missile, which Ukraine has described as an "aircraft carrier killer."


Confirming the death toll on Telegram, Mykola Lukashuk, head of the Dnipro regional council, said "Burn in hell, Russian murderers."


At least 72 people were wounded and 43 people were reported missing, according to the city government, per The Independent.


"This missile with a 950 kg (2,000-pound) warhead, which is called an 'aircraft carrier killer,' is designed to destroy aircraft carrier groups at sea. It can be equipped with a nuclear element. And such a missile was used to hit a densely populated city. There is no explanation or justification for this terrorist act," said Yuriy Ihnat, Spokesperson for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, per Ukrinform.

The Ukrainian military does not currently have the advanced weaponary needed to shoot down the long-range Kh-22 missiles, with Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to a Newsweek report.


He said: "Since the beginning of Russian military aggression on Ukraine, more than 210 missiles of this type have been launched. None of them are knocked down by air defense equipment."

In his Facebook post, Oleshchuk said that only Western anti-aircraft missile systems, such as Patriot PAC-3s, are capable of taking down the supersonic Kh-22.


It has been reported that the US has agreed to supply a single Patriot battery to Ukraine. Upto 100 Ukrainian soldiers are due to undergo training on the missile systems at Fort Sill in Oklahoma, starting next week, reported the BBC.


The attack on the apartment block comes in a new surge of Russian violence over the last week, which has targeted civilians and energy infrastructure.


The Russian strikes have hit critical infrastructure across the country, with Ukraine's energy minister warning of "difficult" days ahead with damaged electricity, running water, and heating supplies, per Reuters.


Much of the fighting over the past few days has been focused in Soledar, where Russian troops have claimed they've captured the town.

The Russian missile that wiped out an apartment block was designed to sink aircraft carriers and can't be shot down by Ukraine, says its airforce

Russian Defense Ministry says missile strike that destroyed a Dnipro residential building ‘reached its target’

During its daily briefing, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian troops hit Ukrainian military command and energy targets during a massive strike on the country on January 14.


“All designated targets have been hit. The goal of the strike has been achieved,” said ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov.


The Ukrainian side reports that the massive strike damaged energy facilities in six regions. In Dnipro, a missile struck a nine-story apartment complex, killing over 20 people and injuring over 70.


News outlet Agentstvo writes that the January 14 attack was Russia’s deadliest strike on Ukraine since September, 2022, when a strike on a humanitarian aid convoy in Zaporizhzhia killed 32 people.

Russian Defense Ministry says missile strike that destroyed a Dnipro residential building ‘reached its target’ — Meduza

Originally Posted by sabang

Let the People decide. Get the UN to independently monitor a Referendum in Donetsk, Luhansk, maybe Zapo- and respect the outcome.

Russia would never allow that. Wonder why that is?

German tank manufacturer’s warning puts pressure on Ukraine’s allies

Defence firm dampens Kyiv hopes other European allies will follow UK’s lead in supplying heavy armour

Battle tanks from German industrial reserves wanted by Ukraine will not be ready to be delivered until 2024, the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has warned, increasing pressure on Nato allies to support Ukraine with armoured vehicles in active service instead, ahead of a key meeting this week.

“Even if the decision to send our Leopard tanks to Kyiv came tomorrow, the delivery would take until the start of next year,” Rheinmetall’s chief executive, Armin Papperger, told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

Rheinmetall, which manufactures the battle vehicle’s gun, has 22 Leopard 2 and 88 older Leopard 1 tanks in its stocks. Getting the Leopard tanks ready for battle, however, would take several months and cost hundreds of millions of euros the company could not put up until the order was confirmed, Papperger said.

“The vehicles must be completely dismantled and rebuilt,” he added.

While Rheinmetall’s admission limits the options of Ukraine’s western allies, it does not entirely quash Kyiv’s hopes that the UK’s promise to deliver Challenger 2 tanks would encourage other European nations to swiftly follow suit.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Sunday Ukraine could expect more heavy weapons following Kyiv’s requests for the vehicles, artillery and missiles it says are key to defending itself. “The recent pledges for heavy warfare equipment are important – and I expect more in the near future,” Stoltenberg told Germany’s Handelsblatt daily.

The question of whether countries such as Poland, Finland or Germany can spare Leopard tanks from their own reserves is likely to dominate the agenda at a meeting at the Ramstein airbase in south-western Germany on Friday.

The warning came as Russian rocket attacks across Ukraine ended a two-week lull in Moscow’s targeting of the country’s power infrastructure and urban centres, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, hailed a “positive dynamic” on the frontline.

more https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/15/german-battle-tanks-for-ukraine-wont-be-ready-until-2024

Originally Posted by bsnub

It’s fair to ask why Poland and the United Kingdom don’t just donate all their surplus tanks, all at once.

Why not donate modified/up to date tanks and not, as it would be in Poland's case, old Leopard 2A4s.

The 2A4 is an, in western terms, outdated tank, which is bought and scrapped for spare parts by several countries afaik


Very noble to ship them eastwards.


As this isn't a propaganda piece, I'd like to note that I have no idea whatsoever, how an 2A4 would perform against some russian tank.


Did they ever meet in the real world with real soldiers operating them ?

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has created the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II. While millions of Ukrainian refugees have since returned home, almost 2.9 million moved to Russia, according to October 2022 figures, and roughly 7.9 million were registered across Europe between February and December 27, 2022. Besides Russia, Poland (1.5 million), Germany (1 million), and the Czech Republic (474,731) have welcomed the largest numbers of Ukrainian refugees, while Italy, Spain, France, Romania, and the UK have also accepted more than 100,000 each.

There is little reason to suggest many Ukrainian refugees will return home soon. A June survey by polling group Rating, for example, found that 24 percent of Ukrainian refugees wanted to return but were waiting for a certain time, 48 percent said they would return after the end of the war, and 8 percent said they would not go back to Ukraine. A German government-backed survey from December 2022, meanwhile, found that around 37 percent of Ukrainian refugees wanted to settle in the country permanently or at least for the next few years.

As part of the Temporary Protection Directive that was invoked by the EU in March 2022, Ukrainians can now live, work, and study in EU countries for a period of three years. Many Ukrainian refugees have already found employment in host countries and may—like the temporary guest workers invited to Europe in the 1960s—choose to permanently settle in those countries eventually. Millions of Ukrainians also left their country before the 2022 Russian invasion, with 1.4 million Ukrainians having lived and worked in Poland in 2020 (most of whom came after the initial round of unrest in 2014) and another 250,000 having lived in Italy before the war alone.

The incentive for Ukrainian foreign workers and refugees to return home has been significantly reduced following the widespread destruction across the country since the war began in February 2022. Much of the country’s population has been suffering from limited and sporadic access to electricity, heat, and water, and Ukraine’s economy “shrank by 30 percent in 2022.” Ukraine is now Europe’s poorest country, and its entry into the EU will likely take years. Instability in the country’s Donbas region since 2014 coupled with almost a year of open conflict with Russia means that peace will likely continue to elude Ukraine.

While some Ukrainian refugees have returned, “‘unliveable’ conditions” during winters and the crumbling basic infrastructure will drive more Ukrainians to seek refuge in Europe, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council. Additionally, it is estimated that 90 percent of Ukrainian refugees are women and children, as conscription prevented most Ukrainian men from leaving the country. The men that remained in Ukraine may try to reunite with their families abroad, while those men that managed to leave may face the risk of being recruited into military service or being punished for evading it if they do return to Ukraine.

Other countries that have suffered from conflicts in recent decades demonstrate that the longer violence continues, the less likely refugees are to return home. “In the Kosovo war of 1999, when NATO bombed Yugoslavia to prevent the brutalization of ethnic Albanians who make up Kosovo’s majority, hundreds of thousands fled, or were forcibly moved, to neighboring Albania and Macedonia.” These refugees eventually returned to Kosovo since the war lasted only 78 days, explained an article in the Economist. During the war in nearby Bosnia, which took place from 1992 to 1995, however, many Bosnians left “and far fewer returned.”

More recently, the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, resulted in 6.8 million Syrian refugees fleeing mostly to neighboring states as well as to Europe until 2021. The conflict, soon to enter its 12th year, has reinforced the perception that both the desire of refugees to return, as well as the ability of host countries to deport them, is limited as long as violence is ongoing.

Between 2016 and 2022, for instance, just 336,496 Syrians returned to the country from neighboring host countries according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). And a UNHCR poll from June 2022 showed that more than 92.8 percent of Syrian refugees in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq do not plan to return to their country within the next year. As a new generation of Syrian children born outside the country emerges, the likelihood of Syrian families returning will continue to decline.

The Turkish government stated in May 2022 that it intends to relocate up to 1 million Syrian refugees back to northern Syria in regions controlled by Turkish-backed forces, and is increasingly using force to move them back across the border, even at gunpoint.

But the failed efforts by Turkey to return Syrian refugees suggest that European countries will struggle to do the same with Ukrainian refugees who refuse to turn home. Additionally, Ukrainian refugees have received a relatively warm welcome across Europe. While poorer EU countries bordering Ukraine, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, may seek to curtail future refugee intake, Ukrainian refugees may instead head further west into the continent.

The creation of millions of Ukrainian refugees has compounded the demographic crisis that Ukraine has faced since the 1990s. Falling birth rates, rising death rates, an aging population, and high emigration even before 2014 saw Ukraine’s population decline from 52 million in 1991 to about 42 million in 2020.

While other Eastern European countries, as well as Russia, have faced similar predicaments, Ukraine’s population decline has been far more acute. Due to low wages and high unemployment, Ukraine has been unable to attract immigrants, while the possible accession of Ukraine into the EU risks further emigration in the future. Furthermore, the large number of casualties of prime-aged men because of the conflict will also undermine Ukraine’s demographic position for decades.

French philosopher Auguste Comte is attributed with stating “Demography is destiny,” noting a link between a country’s future and the youthfulness of its population. A UN report from 2022 predicts that Ukraine’s population will likely never recover from the ongoing conflict and will continue to experience a significant population decline this century. A less populated Ukraine may be part of the Kremlin’s strategy of weakening the country, ominously hinted at by Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2022, who declared “If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood.”

Russia has of course played an active part in depopulating Ukraine. In addition to launching its destabilizing military operations, since 2014it has facilitated the migration of Ukrainian refugees into Russia, policies that seem to have continued with additional Ukrainian refugees making their way to Russia since the invasion in February 2022. And in May 2022, Putin signed a decree easing constraints on Russians seeking to adopt Ukrainian children in war-torn regions, while making it harder for relatives of these children in Ukraine to have them returned.

Many Ukrainians in Europe may never come back, including those who traveled to Russia. Thus, without enough Ukrainians to repopulate the country, the ability of the Ukrainian government to reestablish a strong state and national identity in some regions risks becoming increasingly limited as the war drags on.

This article was produced by Globetrotter.

John P. Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, D.C. He is a contributing editor to Strategic Policy and a contributor to several other foreign affairs publications. He is currently finishing a book on Russia to be published in 2022.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/01...l-return-home/

Yes

It'll probably turn out that way.

Maybe a future rebuilding Bonanza will persuade more to go home.

Former Wagner commander flees to Norway and seeks asylum

A former commander in Russia’s Wagner private military company has fled to Norway and is seeking asylum after crossing that country’s arctic border, according to Norwegian police and a Russian activist.


Andrei Medvedev, in an interview with a Russian activist who helps people seek asylum abroad, said that he feared for his life after refusing to renew his service with Wagner.


Medvedev said that after completing his contract, and refusing to serve another, he was afraid of being executed in the same manner of Yevgeny Nuzhin – a defector from Wagner who was killed on camera with a sledgehammer.


“We were just thrown to fight like cannon fodder,” he told Vladimir Osechkin, head of Gulagu.net, a human rights advocacy group, in a conversation published on YouTube.


A spokesperson for Norway’s Police Security Service confirmed to CNN Monday that Medvedev was in Norway and seeking asylum.


“This is so far a local police investigation,” Eirik Veum told CNN. “But the Security Service, we are informed, and follow the investigation of course.”

The mercenary group, headed by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, has emerged as a key player in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – recently doing much of the fighting in the small eastern town of Soledar.


The group is often described as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s off-the-books troops. It has expanded its footprint globally since its creation in 2014, and has been accused of war crimes in Africa, Syria and Ukraine.


Medvedev said that he crossed the border near the Russian town of Nikel, in a phone call from Norway with Osechkin, which was published online.


The account aligns with that of the Finnmark Police District, who without naming Medvedev, said that it made an “undramatic” arrest of a man in Pasvik on the Norwegian side of the border at 1.58 a.m. on Friday, January 13.


In his own account, Medvedev said that he crossed the border and approached the first house he could find.

“I told a local woman in broken English about my situation and asked for help,” he told Osechkin in the phone call. “While I was on the road, I was approached by the border force and police. I was taken to a department, where I was questioned and charged with illegal crossing. I explained to them everything and told them why I did it.”


“It was a miracle I managed to get here,” he said.


Medvedev had previously tried to cross into Finland twice and failed, Osechkin told CNN Monday.


The head of Wagner, Prigozhin, confirmed on Telegram Monday that Medvedev had served in his company, and said that he “should have been prosecuted for attempting to mistreat prisoners.”

In a December conversation with Osechkin, which was published on YouTube, Medvedev denied that he had committed any crimes in Ukraine.


“I signed a contract with the group on the 6th of July 2022. I had been appointed commander of the first squad of the 4th platoon of the 7th assault detachment,” he recalled. “When the prisoners started arriving, the situation in Wagner really changed. They stopped treating us like humans. We were just thrown to fight like cannon fodder.”


“Every week they sent more prisoners to us. We lost a lot of men. Casualties were high. We would lose 15 to 20 men just in our platoon. As far as I know, a majority of them were buried in LPR [Luhansk People’s Republic] and declared missing. If you are declared missing, there is no insurance pay-out to the relatives.”


He claimed that prisoners were “shot dead for refusing to fight, or betrayal.”


“I am afraid for my life,” he said in December. “I did not commit any crime. I have refused to participate in maneuvers of Yevgeny Prigozhin.”

Osechkin told CNN Monday that he began helping Medvedev after being approached by a friend at the end of November.


Prigozhin, he explained, had ordered all contracts to be automatically renewed starting in November. When Medvedev refused to renew, he was beaten, Osechkin claimed.


“Andrei decided to leave Wagner,” Osechkin told CNN. “Once this happened, he became wanted by security services of Wagner and Russian special services. There was a threat to his life.”


“He was afraid he will be executed in the same manner as Yevgeny Nuzhin – with a sledgehammer. We, as human-rights defenders, decided to help him and protect his life.”


Osechkin said that he helped Medvedev with groceries, clothes, and a telephone.


“We are not trying to justify his actions in relation to his participation in Wagner Group. But it should be understood that he decided to flee Wagner Group as terrorist organization which kills both Russians and Ukrainians.”

Former Wagner commander flees to Norway | CNN

Originally Posted by sabang

There is little reason to suggest many Ukrainian refugees will return home soon

The operative word here is 'soon'.
Ukrainian refugees are not necessarily going to stay or even be allowed to stay past a certain point. Immigration laws in New Zealand, for example, only allow Ukrainian refugees in if they have family here who would vouch and take care of them, that includes medical, living etc...
It is a time-limited exercise . . . and NZ isn't the only one.

Ukraine wasn't a third world/developing nation with poverty and despots, comparing them to Syrians, Iraqis etc... is as far from reality as one can get

A move by the German government to supply tanks to Ukraine is a “very, very, very, very needed decision,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Tuesday in Davos, arguing that German public opinion is now shifting toward supplying more military aid to Kyiv.

Speaking on a panel on Europe’s defense at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Duda and his Lithuanian counterpart Gitanas Nausėda applied sustained pressure on Berlin to send the heavy military kit.

“The attitude in Germany is changing,” said Nausėda, but he bemoaned the delay from Berlin in allowing the release of German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine — which he called a “very strategic factor in this war.”

“I have to tell you honestly, it’s a pity because every day of this war costs a lot,” he said. “We don’t have the luxury for such delays, and decision-making must be decisive, fast.”

Over the weekend, the U.K. announced that it would send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, turning the screws on other NATO allies to follow suit.

“Germany is part of the NATO alliance, and if there’s a situation where a few allies are ready to give their tanks to Ukraine, it is an important moment,” said Duda.

Duda announced last week that Poland intended to send a company of 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, but needed permission from Germany to re-export them. German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck responded that Berlin would not block such a move, but that Warsaw first needed to make a formal request.

“We hope that the producer of those tanks, Germany, will also participate — in my opinion, a very good idea,” said Duda. “I was asked by [Ukraine’s President] Volodymyr Zelenskyy for that military support a few times. He said to me, ‘Andrzej, we need those modern tanks because it is the only way to stop Russian invasion.'”

Duda said the goal was for NATO countries equipped with the Leopard 2 to band together and each send enough tanks to create an armored brigade for Ukraine.

When asked if Poland had formally requested German permission to export the tanks, Poland’s defense ministry said: “Poland has declared the transfer of a company of Leopard tanks to Ukraine as part of an international coalition. Consultations with allies are underway.”

Western defense ministers will meet on Friday at the Ramstein military base in Germany to discuss further military support for Kyiv.

Poland and Lithuania pile pressure on Germany to supply tanks to Ukraine – POLITICO

Russia to Boost Troops in West, Expanding Army to 1.5 Million People

Russia will create new commands near Europe as it expands its military to 1.5 million people amid deepening tensions with the US and its allies over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

New structures in the regions around Moscow, St. Petersburg and Karelia on the border with Finland will be created under the program, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told commanders Tuesday, saying the major changes will start this year and continue through 2026. In addition, he said, “self-sufficient” units will be set up on the Ukrainian territories that Russia has illegally annexed.


Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the military expansion came in response to the “proxy war” he claimed the US and its allies are waging against Russia in Ukraine, Interfax reported. Kyiv and its allies are fighting to fend off Russia’s invasion of its neighbor.


Russian President Vladimir Putin last month approved Shoigu’s plan to boost the size of his military from the current target level of 1.15 million but the Kremlin hasn’t said how fast that will take place.

Shoigu said the expansion will be spread across all branches of Russia’s military and will be coordinated with the delivery of new weapons to equip them, the Defense Ministry said in a statement, according to Interfax.


Russia will create three new motorized-infantry divisions and two airborne divisions, combining a number of brigades, Shoigu said in comments posted on the ministry’s Telegram channel. He also called for special attention to the recruitment of contract soldiers to fill out the ranks of the expanded military.


Since ordering the invasion nearly a year ago, Putin has laid plans to reverse years of reductions in the ranks of Russia’s military. The Kremlin hasn’t said how it will recruit all the new troops, but has proposed raising the draft age, which may increase the number of men eligible for conscription.


How Russia Pushed Finland and Sweden Toward NATO: QuickTake


Russia has repeatedly said it plans to boost deployments in the northwest in response to a pending expansion of NATO, where Finland and Sweden are in the process of joining, with their applications ratified by 28 of 30 alliance members. The Nordic countries’ entry into the military bloc would double its land border with Russia.

Russia to Boost Troops in West, Expanding Army to 1.5 Million People

Almost half of Europeans favor an immediate end to the war launched by Russia, even at the cost of Ukraine losing some of its territories, a poll of residents in nine countries in the European Union revealed.

Euroskopia, an alliance of social research and media companies in the E.U., asked 1,000 adult residents in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland and Portugal regarding their vision of the end of Russia's military offensive against Ukraine.

In all the countries surveyed, 48% of Europeans are in favor of a quick resolution to the war, even if Ukraine gives up some of its occupied territories to Russia, according to Euroskopia.

According to the poll, 64% of Austrians, 60% of Germans, 54% of Greeks, 50% of Italians and 50% of Spaniards support the rapid cessation of hostilities even if it means territorial loss for Ukraine.

In Spain, the majority of voters supporting the left-wing government prefer an early end to the war to achieve peace over a complete victory by Ukraine and its allies, European Pravda reported.

But 48% of citizens in the Netherlands, 45% of Portuguese and 42% of Polish residents opposed the idea of Kyiv giving up its territories to Moscow in order to end the war quickly.

The result also revealed that 32% of surveyed Europeans rejected making sacrifices to end the war quickly.

Despite different visions on how they see an end to the war in Ukraine, 56% of Europeans said they want to continue arms shipments to support the Ukrainian military, with 61% of Spaniards supporting the idea.

But 60% of citizens in Greece and 50% of Italians reject the continuation of military support to Ukraine.

When asked about maintaining the sanctions imposed on Russia, a razor-thin majority of 51.8% of Europeans support the continuation of imposing economic sanctions on all Russian companies.

But most residents in Germany, Greece, Austria and Italy want their countries to resume buying Russian gas in the future if the war ends through a peace agreement. Overall, 35.1% of Europeans support the idea of bringing back Russian gas to their energy consumption.

The E.U.-wide survey came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged allies to speed up their shipment of military aid, warning that Russia could be preparing a fresh offensive almost a year after it invaded Ukraine.

Zelensky cited the Russian strike on an apartment building in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, which killed at least 44 people, as a sign that Russia is planning to turn the tide of the war in their favor.

"[The] fact that Russia is preparing a new attempt to seize the initiative in the war, the fact that the nature of hostilities at the front requires new decisions in the defense supply — all this only emphasizes how important it is to coordinate our efforts," Zelensky said, the New York Times reported.

48% Of EU Respondents Want Quick End To War Even If Ukraine Loses Territories: Poll

Originally Posted by sabang

In all the countries surveyed, 48% of Europeans are in favor of a quick resolution to the war, even if Ukraine gives up some of its occupied territories to Russia

Wonder what the poll would look like if the war was in their country after a Russian invasion?
Just askin'.

In the Ukraine, your answer would be largely dependant upon where you asked that very question. Very clear east/ west divide here, and by appearances the more west you get, the more 'west' the answer- and ditto for the east.

Interesting how the Poles are the attack dogs of Nato now.