Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

I'm not sure F16's will be enough to gain air superiority, although it could, for limited area and time, to inflict tactical advantages.

Much will depend on the weapons and ew protection supplied. I hope they will, for instance, be able to detect an incoming r37 and suppress that threat. Also the Russian SAM sites are a real threat and need to be neutralised.

Unfortunately an effective campaign will see substantial losses. That has to happen if Ukraine seek an effective counter using combined air and heavy armour strikes. At least in the early stages.

Originally Posted by Norton

Partially. America's focus, if you can call it that, is all over the map resulting in a major impact on the Ukraine war effort, uncertainty and morale of the country.

Internal politics in the US has taken over. Biden has moved from 100% support of the Ukraine to "doing what we can" which means fuck all. Taiwan, Japan and Korea watch with concern regarding America's 100% support of them should they be attacked.

America's support of it's allies can no longer be relied on and the BRIC's just sit back and reap the gains to their global influence.

Merry Christmas Vlad.

Sadly I believe you may well be right. One only has to look at Bidens hesitation and drip feeding of weapons to see why one of the reasons the Ukrainian offensive has been less successful than it could've been. God only knows if the cretinous carrot top gets in. The F16s are a case in point. An American plane but how many will actually be supplied by America and we are two years down the track.

When planes were mentioned at the start of the war, Putin was threatening nuclear bomb retaliation.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

The F16s are a case in point. An American plane but how many will actually be supplied by America and we are two years down the track.

Europeans have heaps of those, that they can send ukranian way.

Problem, if you'll call it that, is pilot training and maintenance crews.

Infrastructure takes time.


Sensitive upgrades might also have to be removed, like it was in the Leopards.

As always; I don't know

What does that Recep loon want now?

Turkey blocks Royal Navy minehunters going to Ukraine


The two ships, donated to Kyiv, have been stopped passing through Bosphorus and Gallipoli straits to reach the Black Sea


Tim Sigsworth
2 January 2024 • 5:30pm
Two Sandown Class minehunters were pledged to Kyiv in December to help its navy in the battle against Russia
Two Sandown Class minehunters were pledged to Kyiv in December to help its navy in the battle against Russia CREDIT: Lt Nicholas Stevenson RN
Turkey has refused to allow Royal Navy minehunters donated to Ukraine to pass through its waters, blocking them from reaching the Black Sea.


The two ships were pledged to Kyiv in December to help its navy in the battle against Russia.


But on Tuesday, the office of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the transfer would violate the 1936 Montreux Convention which stops warships passing through its Bosphorus and Gallipoli straits during conflicts.


The straits are the only sea route to the Black Sea and Nato member Turkey insists it has implemented the ban impartially since the war in Ukraine began.


Russia has no need to use the straits to access the Ukrainian coast.


“Our pertinent allies have been duly apprised that the minehunting ships donated to Ukraine by the United Kingdom will not be allowed to pass through the Turkish Straits to the Black Sea as long as the war continues,” Turkey said in a statement posted on Twitter.


Britain is yet to comment.


The two ships were the leading parts of a new naval coalition formed with Norway to strengthen Ukraine’s capabilities in the mine-ridden Black Sea.


The Maritime Capability Coalition aimed to counter the threat of Russian sea explosives to help restore Ukraine’s grain exports and make importing supplies easier.




The Telegraph understands that the Ministry of Defence expected the ships to be banned from passing through Turkish waters when it donated them.


It is understood the vessels are part of a longer-term British commitment to Ukraine’s naval presence in the Black Sea that extends beyond the war with Russia. Ukrainian troops can still be trained on the vessels.


The blockage of the two minehunters, which use sonar to scour the depths for explosives and sea drones to destroy them, is set to be a serious setback.


“These minehunters will deliver vital capability to Ukraine which will help save lives at sea and open up vital export routes, which have been severely limited since Putin launched his illegal full-scale invasion,” Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, said at the time.


Turkey has struck a delicate balance between Ukraine and Russia during the war, maintaining good ties with both.


Britain has previously accused Russia of considering laying sea mines in the humanitarian corridor established in the Black Sea to facilitate grain exports.


On Wednesday last week, a cargo ship hit a Russian mine on its way to a port on the river Danube, injuring two crew members.


Ukraine has previously said that Russian attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure have increased since mid-July when Moscow quit a United Nations-brokered deal allowing Ukrainian grain shipments to pass safely through the Black Sea.


Kyiv has since established an alternative route which hugs the western shores of the Black Sea.


It says Russian forces have been repeatedly laying mines in the vicinity of the new route.

Turkey blocks Royal Navy minehunters going to Ukraine

Turkey stated that it would stop all military warships from entering the Black Sea some time ago.

This includes the Russians being unable to strengthen their Black Sea fleet. The article fails to mention this and, worse, implies otherwise by mentioning the Russians don't need to use the strait in order to attack the Ukraine coast. That's with the fleet it currently has, one that is being steadily depleted.

So Turkey is simply holding to its stated, and correct, decision.

Originally Posted by Troy

So Turkey is simply holding to its stated, and correct, decision

oh i understand that but they also provided drones to Ukr, they will become flexible on the MCMV issue to once they have extracted something

I wasn't aware Turkey 'extracted' anything before donating drones and cluster munitions to Ukraine.

Care to explain?

On Sunday night, Ukrainian air-defenses shot down one of the Russian air force’s very rare, and very valuable, A-50 radar early-warning planes, likely killing all 15 people aboard—potentially including high-ranking officers. A Russian Ilyushin Il-22 command plane was damaged in the same attack.

“Who did this?” the Ukrainian air force quipped. The answer, it seems, is the air arm’s 90-mile-range Patriot PAC-2 air-defense missiles. Less likely: shorter-range Patriot PAC-3s or S-300s.

Exactly how the Ukrainians shot down the four-engine A-50 with its top-mounted radar is unclear, but analyst Tom Cooper—who has written many books about Soviet and Russian warplanes—has a theory.

Ukrainian radar and missile crews lured the Russian crews into a trap.

If Cooper’s theory is correct, the Ukrainians set the trap on Saturday, when Ukrainian air force jets—presumably Sukhoi Su-24 bombers—struck Russian air force installations across the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. “A number of radars were knocked out,” Cooper reported.

The Saturday strikes, the latest in a long campaign of Ukrainian raids on Russian defenses in Crimea, suppressed the Russians’ ground-based radar coverage, leaving the surviving missile batteries on the peninsula partially blind—especially to the north, where the terrain could mask incoming Ukrainian planes, drones and missiles.

So Russian commanders did the obvious, but stupid, thing. They ordered one of their few remaining A-50U radar planes, which normally fly far to the south over the Sea of Azov, to push farther north in order to extend radar coverage over most of Crimea. An A-50’s rotating radar can see airplane-size targets nearly 200 miles away.

A four-prop Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post with around 10 crew aboard accompanied the A-50. The Il-22 is a radio-relay platform; its crew assists the A-50’s crew by handling communications and data-transfer for which the A-50 lacks the power and processing.

Satellite imagery and radar data seem to place the A-50’s northernmost flight path over occupied Berdyansk, just 75 miles from the front line. That’s within range of the single Patriot surface-to-air missile battery, out of three in the arsenal, that the Ukrainian air force has deployed along the southern front.

The trick was for the Ukrainians to target the A-50 and its accompanying Il-22 without giving the Russian crews too much advance notice of the attack—and without sacrificing their precious Patriot system.

“All Ukrainians had to do was to secretly deploy a suitable SAM system to target the two aircraft from long range,” Cooper wrote. “Perhaps this was one of [air force’s] S-300 SAM systems. Perhaps one of [the air force’s] PAC-2/3 SAM systems.”

“It is also possible that Ukrainians have deployed a launcher and a radar, plus power-supply equipment, from one of their three PAC-2/3 SAM systems ... in combination with one of their S-300 radars.”

There’s some evidence of an S-300-Patriot team-up. A Russian air force Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber reportedly detected a previously unknown Ukrainian S-300 battery switching on its radar in the minutes before the A-50 and Il-22 were hit.

If the S-300 battery did the initial illumination, it must have passes along target tracks to a nearby hidden Patriot battery. “The latter powered up its radar for only a few seconds: long enough to obtain its own targeting data, but too short for the Russians to dependably detect its emissions and assess them as a threat,” Cooper surmised.

“And then the Ukrainians started firing their missiles.”

A minute later, the missiles exploded—destroying the A-50 and damaging the Il-22. “With their fire-action over,” Cooper wrote, “the Ukrainian S-300 and PAC-2/3 crews promptly ceased emitting, and started packing [up] their systems to move them away and thus avoid any possible Russian retaliation.”

Down one A-50, the Russian air force may have just two of the jets left; the other six A-50s reportedly are in need of upgrade and overhaul. Unless the air force is willing to risk the last two flyable A-50s, it must make peace with its new inability to provide radar coverage over all of Crimea.

It must, in other words, accept the risk of continuing—indeed, escalating—Ukrainian missile raids on Russian forces on the peninsula.

If there’s any comfort for the Russians, it might be that the Ukrainian air force does not have a limitless supply of PAC-2 missiles. Unless and until pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress approve the $61 billion in fresh aid to Ukraine that U.S. president Joe Biden has proposed, the Ukrainians may need to begin rationing their missiles—and taking fewer chances on ambitious missile traps.

Ukrainian Crews Set A Missile Trap For Russia’s Best Radar Plane

Originally Posted by bsnub

Down one A-50, the Russian air force may have just two of the jets left; the other six A-50s reportedly are in need of upgrade and overhaul. Unless the air force is willing to risk the last two flyable A-50s, it must make peace with its new inability to provide radar coverage over all of Crimea.

It must, in other words, accept the risk of continuing—indeed, escalating—Ukrainian missile raids on Russian forces on the peninsula.

France announced on Tuesday that it was sending Ukraine roughly 40 more long-range Storm Shadow missiles, which have become a key weapon in Ukraine's arsenal.

President Emmanuel Macron said that around 40 SCALP missiles — also known as Storm Shadow missiles — as well as hundreds of other bombs would be delivered to Ukraine in the next few weeks, as part of a new deal to give the beleaguered country more sophisticated weapons.

Macron added that a Russian victory in Ukraine would go against international law, and said that "we cannot let Russia win and we must not do that," the Associated Press reported.

He also said that he will travel to Ukraine next month to sign a security agreement.

Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles have allowed Ukraine to strike far behind Russia's lines, and have enabled it to hit key military targets. The missiles are launched from planes and have a range of over 155 miles.
Ukraine has already received an undisclosed number of the missiles from the UK, and around 50 from France, following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The new missiles are a boost to Ukraine's military, coming at a time when further military backing from many of its closest allies is in doubt.

In the US, Senate Republicans have blocked requests from President Joe Biden for further funding, saying their demands for US southern border funding must be met first.

And Hungary, an EU member state with ties to Russia, has held up around $52 billion in support from the bloc.

Despite Hungary's actions, individual European countries like France can, and still are, giving additional weaponry to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been increasing its own domestic weapons production in order to try to reduce its reliance on other countries.

But a drop in support from the US is a major concern for Ukraine.

Macron said on Tuesday that he would find a way to work with Donald Trump if he was reelected president, and that Europe needs to plan for a scenario where the US does not prioritize Ukraine.

"This is also why I want a stronger Europe, that knows how to protect itself and isn't dependent on others," he said. "This is how I am preparing for the American election, regardless of its outcome."

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...-russia-2024-1

Looks like Ukraine shot down a cargo plane.

The Ukrainians say it was carrying missiles.

The Russians say it was carrying Ukrainian POW's.

A video of alleged IL-76 plane crash posted online / The New Voice of Ukraine

• Turkey’s President Erdogan signs off on Sweden’s NATO membership ratification

Hungary now remains the only NATO ally not to have ratified Sweden’s accession.

Turkey’s parliament endorsed Sweden’s accession in a vote Tuesday. The ruling party said the Nordic country’s tougher stance on Kurdish militants was key to winning approval.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also has linked the ratification to Turkey’s desire to buy fighter jets from the United States.

NATO-member Turkey had delayed Sweden’s membership for more than a year, accusing the country of being too lenient toward groups that Ankara regards as security threats. It sought concessions from Stockholm, including moves to counter militants.

Turkey also had been angered by a series of demonstrations by supporters of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, in Sweden as well as Quran-burning protests that roiled Muslim countries.

Erdogan has linked ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership to the U.S. Congress’ approval of a Turkish request to purchase 40 new F-16 fighter jets and kits to modernize Turkey’s existing fleet. He has also urged Canada and other NATO allies to lift arms embargoes on Turkey.

U.S. administration officials have said they expect relatively quick action on the F-16 sale after the ratification.

The EU will sabotage Hungary’s economy if Budapest blocks fresh aid to Ukraine at a summit this week, under a confidential plan drawn up by Brussels that marks a significant escalation in the battle between the EU and its most pro-Russian member state.

In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv.

Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s premier, has vowed to block the use of the EU budget to provide €50bn in financial aid to Ukraine at an emergency summit of leaders on Thursday.

If he does not back down, other EU leaders should publicly vow to permanently shut off all EU funding to Budapest with the intention of spooking the markets, precipitating a run on the country’s forint currency and a surge in the cost of its borrowing, Brussels stated in the document.

“This is Europe telling Viktor Orbán ‘enough is enough; it’s time to get in line. You may have a pistol, but we have the bazooka’,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at Eurasia Group, a consultancy.

The document declares that “in the case of no agreement in the February 1 [summit], other heads of state and government would publicly declare that in the light of the unconstructive behaviour of the Hungarian PM . . . they cannot imagine that” EU funds would be provided to Budapest.

Without that funding, “financial markets and European and international companies might be less interested to invest in Hungary”, the document stated. Such punishment “could quickly trigger a further increase of the cost of funding of the public deficit and a drop in the currency”.

János Bóka, Hungary’s EU minister, told the FT that Budapest was not aware of the financial threat, but that his country “does not give in to pressure”.

“Hungary does not establish a connection between support for Ukraine and access to EU funds, and rejects other parties doing so,” he said. “Hungary has and will continue to participate constructively in the negotiations.”

But in a sign of the rising pressure on Budapest to strike a compromise, Bóka said Budapest sent a new proposal to Brussels on Saturday, specifying it was now open to using the EU budget for the Ukraine package and even issuing common debt to finance it, if other caveats were added that gave Budapest the opportunity to change its mind at a later date.

The document, produced by an official in the Council of the EU, the Brussels body that represents member states, lays out Hungary’s economic vulnerabilities — including its “very high public deficit”, “very high inflation”, weak currency and the EU’s highest level of debt servicing payments as a proportion of gross domestic product.

It lays outs how “jobs and growth . . . depend to a large extent” on overseas finance that is predicated on high levels of EU funding.

A spokesperson for the Council of the EU said they did not comment on leaks.

Brussels has wielded its financial leverage against member states before, such as with Poland and Hungary over rule of law concerns and Greece during the eurozone crisis, but a strategy to explicitly seek to undermine a member state’s economy would mark a major new step for the bloc.

Three EU diplomats told the FT that many countries backed the plan. “The mood has got harsher,” said one. “What kind of union do we have if we allow this kind of behaviour?”

Another said: “The stakes are high. It is blackmail.”

Bóka told the FT that Budapest wanted “to explore the possibility of a more constructive and European solution” and has proposed it could support the €50bn plan if it was given an annual veto on the payments. Other EU countries have already refused this suggestion as they fear Orbán would seek to block it every year and extract further concessions.

But one of the diplomats added there was “no way” Orbán would get a veto over funding. Bóka said “the political pressure on Hungary is continuous and strong” but that it did not influence his government’s negotiations.

“We had to take a step, and we trust that the other party will be similarly flexible,” he added.

While 26 member states have a plan B to send money to Kyiv outside the EU budget, that would require national parliaments’ ratification, causing delays and uncertainty.

Several capitals have considered whether it is feasible to use Article 7 of the Treaty on the European Union, which would allow Brussels to strip Budapest of its voting rights or, one diplomat said, block disbursement of money. But others have rebuffed the notion given that it requires unanimous support and many countries are reluctant to deploy such a serious sanction.

Bóka said it was important that EU unity was “preserved”, adding: “That is why we are willing to make compromises so long as they do not affect our vital interests.”

He added, however, that if the compromise effort failed, Hungary’s original proposal of a separate Ukraine fund outside the EU budget would be Budapest’s preference.

Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orban vetoes Ukraine aid

The Pentagon has successfully tested a new long-range precision bomb for Ukraine that is expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as Wednesday, according to two U.S. officials and two other people with knowledge of the talks.

Ukraine will receive its first batch of Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, a brand new long-range weapon made by Boeing that even the U.S. doesn’t have in its inventory, according to the four people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss matters ahead of an announcement.

The new bomb, which can travel about 90 miles, is expected to be “a significant capability for Ukraine,” said one of the U.S. officials.

“It gives them a deeper strike capability they haven’t had, it complements their long-range fire arsenal,” the U.S. official said. “It’s just an extra arrow in the quiver that’s gonna allow them to do more.”

An Army spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to comment on timing “due to operational security.”

“I will refer to Ukraine to talk about any delivery,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “But we do, as I mentioned, continue to work closely with Ukraine and with our industry partners to ensure that Ukraine receives and is ready to use the capabilities that we’re delivering to them, and as quickly as possible.”

The weapon, co-developed by Boeing and Saab, is made up of a precision-guided 250-pound bomb strapped to a rocket motor and fired from various ground launchers. The U.S. military has a similar version of the bomb that is air-launched, but a ground-launched version does not yet exist in U.S. inventory.

The extended range will put a new capability in Kyiv’s arsenal at a time when fighting along the front is in a stalemate, and as Ukraine looks for new ways to hit Russian forces and infrastructure behind the front lines.

The bomb will join other long-range weapons given to Ukraine over the past year that have allowed its troops to hit Russian logistics and naval sites in Crimea. While the new bombs don’t have the range of the British Storm Shadow or the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System, it is arriving as Ukraine’s stockpiles of artillery and munitions are running low.

New funding for Ukraine is part of the $111 billion emergency supplemental that’s been stalled on Capitol Hill. Despite the fact that the U.S. has no new money to authorize weapons transfers from existing stocks, the U.S. signed a contract with Boeing last year to provide the weapon to Kyiv.

Ukraine will be the first country to use the bomb in combat, making it a critical test case for other countries that have been snapping up long-range munitions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Pentagon announced last February that the Biden administration was providing the new bomb to Ukraine. But before sending the new version, the U.S. military needed to test the weapon — and that took many months.

The Army oversaw the testing of the new precision-guided bomb before providing its stamp of approval to send the weapon to Ukraine, according to an industry source.

The air-launched version was created in 2019, but despite successful tests, Boeing and Saab did not make a sale until the U.S. decided to donate it to Ukraine as part of an aid package.

New US-made longer-range bomb expected to arrive as soon as Wednesday in Ukraine - POLITICO

Ukraine fights on in ruined Avdiivka despite severe weapons shortage - BBC News

Ukraine needs help now and the US is tightening the purse strings unfortunately.

This new weapon would be a game changer for Ukraine ...

Advanced future military laser achieves UK first - GOV.UK

^ There have been multiple "game changers" in the last 2 years, Joe. None have led to a victory.

• Hungary vouches for Swedish NATO membership

Hungary’s Parliament voted to ratify Sweden as NATO’s 32nd member on Monday, clearing the way for the Scandinavian country's historic move to abandon its legacy of neutrality in international military conflicts. The vote was 188 in favor to six against.

“Today is a historic day. The parliaments of all NATO member states have now voted in favor of Swedish accession to NATO. Sweden stands ready to shoulder its responsibility for Euro-Atlantic security,” said Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on X, previously Twitter, shortly after the vote.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also cheered the prospect of a new ally in the organization.

“I welcome the Hungarian Parliament’s vote to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO. Now that all allies have approved, Sweden will become the 32nd NATO ally. Sweden’s membership will make us all stronger and safer,” he wrote on X.

The approval had been expected since last week when the vote was first announced. Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government began the process of ratification in July 2022, but the matter stalled over opposition by governing party lawmakers.

Despite lamenting Swedish politicians' criticism of Hungary, Orban sounded a positive note as he addressed lawmakers before the vote.

“Sweden and Hungary’s military cooperation and Sweden’s NATO accession strengthen Hungary’s security,” Orban said.

With Sweden joining the alliance, a significant geographical gap in Northern Europe will close between NATO members and neighbors Finland, Norway and Denmark.

A large chunk of the Baltic Sea, shared with Russia, will also fall in favor of NATO, especially with the Swedish island of Gotland serving as a military bastion in the region. With the Scandinavian country comes valuable naval experience and material that are crucial for the alliance to hold Russia at bay, if necessary.

Sweden’s NATO bid came along with that of neighboring Finland, which became a full-fledged member in April 2023, expanding the allies’ border with Russia by 1,340 km (830 miles). Finland moved ahead of its neighbor when it became clear that NATO allies Turkey, and later Hungary, were seeking guarantees from Sweden.

Since the start of Sweden’s NATO application, Ankara insisted that the Nordic country should take action against harboring groups and people it claimed were associated with terrorism. The Scandinavian country met this worry with a constitutional amendment introducing “limitations on freedom of association for groups engaged in terrorism.”

After the Turkish ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership last month, Hungary stood as the last remaining obstacle. All members of the military alliance must vote in favor of a new country's entrance.

The Hungarian green light comes just days after a bilateral agreement with Sweden that will sell Hungary four Swedish-made JAS 39 Gripen jets. The agreement has most likely paved the way for Hungary to ratify Sweden’s NATO bid, according to the AP.

NATO urges all its members to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense — an amount many European countries neglected prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to Swedish broadcaster SVT, the Scandinavian country will meet the requirement later this year.