Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Ukrainian forces continued their advance against the Russian military in the southern Kherson region Tuesday, pushed back Russian mercenaries from Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk, and gained new momentum in Luhansk, where they seized a key highway between the towns of Kreminna and Svatove.

On a day of heavy fighting and fast-moving developments across multiple combat zones, the Ukrainians appeared to extend their recent successes in recapturing occupied territories and pushing Moscow’s troops into retreat in areas that President Vladimir Putin has claimed now belong to Russia.

Away from the battlefield, the Kremlin continued to push a claim, asserted repeatedly without evidence, that Kyiv was preparing to use a “dirty bomb,” a weapon that combines conventional explosives with radioactive material — an accusation that was dismissed by the United States and other Western nations.

U.S. officials said that Moscow’s allegations raised a risk that Russia itself was planning to carry out a radiation attack, potentially as a pretext to justify further escalation of the war amid its continuing territorial setbacks.

In a statement Tuesday, Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator, Energoatom, issued a similar warning, citing the Russian military’s control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar.

“Energoatom assumes that such actions of the occupiers may indicate that they are preparing a terrorist act using nuclear materials and radioactive waste stored at the ZNPP site,” the statement said.

The renewed fears of some kind of radiation attack added to the ominous sense that Putin’s war in Ukraine is growing even more deadly and dangerous as each side seeks to redraw facts on the ground before winter.

Ukraine has been pushing hard for further territorial gains, while Russia this month began a relentless bombing campaign against Ukraine’s energy system, using missiles and attack drones in an apparent bid to plunge the country into cold and darkness, and potentially compensate for battlefield losses.

As Ukraine continued to make gains, pro-Kremlin military bloggers and analysts confirmed new setbacks for Russia’s forces Tuesday, including in Luhansk, the easternmost occupied region of Ukraine, where Russia has had its firmest grip.

“The Ukrainian army has resumed its counteroffensive in the Luhansk direction,” the pro-Russian WarGonzo project said in its daily military update, adding that Ukrainian forces took control of a key highway between the Luhansk towns of Svatove and Kreminna.

“The Russian artillery is actively working on the left bank of Zherebets river and is trying to stop the transfer of reinforcements to the enemy but the situation is very difficult,” WarGonzo said.

In the Donetsk region, the Wagner paramilitary force, controlled by St. Petersburg businessman Yevgeniy Prigozhin, appeared to be getting pushed back from Bakhmut, where the mercenaries had spent weeks pummeling the city but making small gains. Military experts said there was little strategic value in seizing Bakhmut, but Prigozhin seems to see a chance to claim a political prize, while regular Russian military units lose ground in other combat zones.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured a concrete factory on Bakhmut’s eastern outskirts, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War reported Monday. On Sunday, Prigozhin acknowledged the slow pace of Wagner’s effort, saying the mercenaries were gaining only “100-200 meters a day.”

“Our units are constantly meeting with the most fierce enemy resistance, and I note that the enemy is well prepared, motivated, and works confidently and harmoniously,” Prigozhin said in a statement published by his catering company’s press service. “This does not prevent our fighters from moving forward, but I cannot comment on how long it will take.”

In the southern Kherson region, one of the four Moscow claimed to have annexed, Russian forces appeared to be preparing to defend the city of Kherson, amid speculation they would pull back to the eastern side of the Dnieper River, ceding crucial ground.

The Ukrainian military said in its Tuesday operational update that Russian troops were setting up “defensive positions” along the east bank of the Dnieper and leaving small passages for a potential retreat from the west bank.

Speculation on whether Moscow is preparing to abandon Kherson has been circulating for weeks after Ukrainian forces made steady breakthroughs in the southern direction.

“I don’t know all the nuances and plans of the command, but I don’t exclude the surrender of Kherson as from a military point of view its defense at the moment could turn into a rout,” a popular Russian military blogger, who writes under the moniker Zapiski Veterana, wrote in a Telegram post. “But I think that if a decision was made in Moscow to fight until victory, then there is nothing tragic in the surrender of Kherson because this war is here for a long time.”

Moscow may not have a choice. “The Russian position in upper Kherson Oblast is, nevertheless, likely untenable,” the Institute for the Study of War said.

Kremlin-installed officials have been forcing residents to evacuate from the west bank of the Dnieper while claiming without evidence that Kyiv is preparing attacks on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as well as the “dirty bomb” allegations.

The United States, France and Britain accused Moscow of using allegations of a dirty bomb as a pretext for escalation, and they warned that Putin’s government would face additional punitive action by the West.

On Tuesday, the Kremlin called Washington’s distrust of Russia’s claims “an impermissible and frivolous approach.”

After a two-week bombing campaign, in which Moscow systemically targeted energy infrastructure, Kyiv is increasingly concerned about civilians enduring a bitter winter. Ukrainian officials have spent the past few weeks pressing European officials for more sophisticated weapons, particularly the advanced air defense systems required to fend off Russia’s aerial assaults.

The country also faces an urgent cash crunch, with officials raising questions about how Ukraine will secure funding to keep services running through the brutal weeks and months ahead. An early October projection from the World Bank suggested Ukraine’s economy will contract by 35 percent this year.

On Tuesday, Germany and the European Union hosted a conference in Berlin about reconstruction, though the conversation seemed especially premature given Russian attacks that yield fresh destruction each day.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine needs about $38 billion in emergency economic aid for next year alone. But while top officials regularly trumpet the E.U.’s support for Ukraine, there are questions about short- and long-term follow-through.

Even as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has touted plans to help Ukraine through 2023, for instance, E.U. officials acknowledge delays in delivering to Kyiv the roughly $9 billion in loans pledged earlier this year.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen pressed European counterparts in recent weeks to step up financial assistance to Kyiv and has indirectly questioned the decision to offer loans rather than grants.

“We are calling on our partners and allies to join us by swiftly disbursing their existing commitments to Ukraine and by stepping up in doing more,” Yellen said this month. In a video address to a European Council summit in Brussels last week, Zelensky called out European leaders for failing to deliver much-needed economic assistance quickly enough.

“Thank you for the funds that have already been allocated,” Zelensky said. “But a decision has not yet been made on the remaining $6 billion from this package — which is critically needed this year.”

“It is in your power,” he continued, “to reach a principled agreement on the provision of this assistance to our state today already.”

With existing needs unmet, some wonder how seriously to take the E.U.’s promises of an effort of Marshall Plan proportions. A Q&A published by Germany’s Group of Seven presidency ahead of Tuesday’s conference noted that the event would not include a “pledging segment.” Instead, the purpose is to “underline that the international community is united and resolute in its support to Ukraine.”

In private conversations, some E.U. diplomats raised questions about whether the bloc ought to be allocating resources for the reconstruction of a country that is still very much at war, particularly given Europe’s own energy and economic crises.

As von der Leyen spoke in Berlin on Tuesday, the focus in Brussels was very much on efforts to find common ground among the E.U.’s own member states on emergency energy measures.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ne-war-russia/

Everyone should be doing this really.

The Polish Senate on Wednesday unanimously voted on a resolution recognizing Russia as a 'terrorist regime' over its deadly war in Ukraine.

The resolution – which passed with 85 votes – said the governing body "strongly condemns Russian aggression" and called on "all countries that support peace, democracy and human rights to recognize the authorities of the Russian Federation as a terrorist regime."

Polish lawmakers outlined accounts of torture, forced deportations, murder of civilians and intentional strikes on civilian locations to back their calls to characterize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Polish Senate recognizes Russia as '''terrorist state''' | Fox News

Kyiv official says wet weather and the terrain in the Kherson region have made Ukrainian offensive there more difficult than a previous offensive in Kharkiv.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces in the southern Kherson region is proving more difficult than it was in the northeast because of wet weather and the terrain, Ukraine’s defence minister has said.

Kyiv’s forces are piling pressure on Russian troops in the strategically important Kherson region, which has been partially occupied by Moscow since the start of its invasion, threatening Russian President Vladimir Putin with another big battlefield setback.

“First of all, the south of Ukraine is an agricultural region, and we have a lot of irrigation and water supply channels, and the Russians use them like trenches,” Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov told a news conference on Wednesday. “It’s more convenient for them.”

“The second reason is weather conditions. This is the rainy season, and it’s very difficult to use fighting carrier vehicles with wheels,” he said, adding that this reduced the options for Ukraine’s armed forces.

“The counteroffensive campaign in the Kherson direction is more difficult than in the Kharkiv direction,” he added.

Earlier, a Moscow-installed official in the region said at least 70,000 people have left their homes in the province in the space of a week, after residents were urged to leave by the pro-Russian authorities amid the Ukrainian offensive.

“I’m sure that more than 70,000 people left in a week since the crossings were organised,” Vladimir Saldo told a regional TV channel, referring to efforts to move residents to the Russian-controlled areas on the left bank of the Dniper River.

He added that this number may be larger as people could have used their own boats to cross the river instead of organised ferries.

FULL- Ukraine says southern offensive complicated by weather, terrain | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Originally Posted by sabang

Kyiv official says wet weather and the terrain in the Kherson region have made Ukrainian offensive there more difficult than a previous offensive in Kharkiv.

Yes, we know. Is this the first time you've looked at anything resembling a news site?

Putin Says Decade Ahead “Most Dangerous” Since WWII

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the coming decade will be the "most dangerous" since the end of World War II, while accusing the West of seeking to dominate the world.


"Ahead is probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time important decade since the end of the Second World War," Putin told members of the annual Valdai Discussion Club, adding that the situation is "to a certain extent revolutionary."


The Ukraine offensive is only a part of the "tectonic shifts of the entire world order," Putin said.


"The historical period of undivided dominance of the West in world affairs is coming to an end. The unipolar world is becoming a thing of the past," he said.


"We are at a historical frontier," he added.


Putin added that the West is not able to "single-handedly govern humanity" but is "desperately trying to do it".


"Most peoples of the world no longer want to put up with it," he said.


Putin also said that Moscow is trying to "defend its right to exist" in the face of Western efforts to "destroy" his country.


"Russia is not challenging the elites of the West, Russia is just trying to defend its right to exist," he said.

‘There’s No Way Back’: Wagner Group Looks to Russia's Jails to Bolster Ukraine Force - The Moscow Times

Originally Posted by misskit

Putin Says Decade Ahead “Most Dangerous” Since WWII

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the coming decade will be the "most dangerous" since the end of World War II, while accusing the West of seeking to dominate the world.

Really. So the West invaded Ukraine did it?

Russia has acknowledged for the first time that it doesn't have enough equipment for mobilized soldiers in its war against Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that there are issues with equipment for the hundreds of thousands of men being sent to fight in Ukraine under President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization decree.

Peskov said a newly-formed council created by Putin is working on resolving problems with equipment. "Vigorous measures taken to rectify the situation are already yielding the first positive results," he said.

Regional authorities are working on providing "the missing gear," Peskov said, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov "is personally responsible for this" as part of Putin's new council.

Putin on Tuesday held the first official meeting of his "coordinating council" for military supply and logistics. It was created on October 21, and seeks to ensure that his military has adequate supplies in the war.

According to the Kremlin's website, the council was established "to meet any needs that arise during the course of the special military operation." That includes supplies and repair of armament, military and special equipment, materials, medical and sanitary services, maintenance and other activities, and logistics, according to Russian media.

Putin appointed Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin as the council's head, while Dmitry Grigorenko, a deputy prime minister and chief of the government staff, and Manturov, will act as Mishustin's deputies.

Mishustin said on Monday that the group would streamline and handle a number of issues to meet the needs of Russia's military amid the Ukraine war.
The council is expected to report to Putin weekly.

Putin said on October 14 that his "partial mobilization" was nearly complete, and that 222,000 had been drafted so far.

Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on September 21 that Russia would be targeting 300,000 reservists and ex-military personnel with "certain military specialties and relevant experience." However, the figure in Putin's decree has not been disclosed to the public, raising concern that the real number could be far higher.

Alexander Štupun, spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said on October 7 that Putin's troops are struggling to obtain equipment and armor.

"There are significant problems with the material support of the mobilization measures carried out by the military leadership of the Russian Federation. Thus, at the beginning of October, of the 8,000 [mobilized] persons staying at the base of the Novosibirsk Higher Command School, no more than half were provided with military uniforms," Štupun said in a translated briefing posted to Facebook.

"Only field uniforms and shoes are issued to the specified personnel. The rest of the equipment must be bought at your own expense or try to get it from the local authorities as humanitarian aid. The issue of providing the mobilized with helmets and body armor remains problematic," the spokesperson added.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) said last month that it intercepted a Russian soldier's phone conversation in which he complained about a lack of equipment and weapons, while videos on Russian social networks have shown conscripted men with rusty weapons.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-equi...kraine-1755057

Originally Posted by bsnub

Regional authorities are working on providing "the missing gear," Peskov said, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov "is personally responsible for this" as part of Putin's new council.

Amazing . . . but not really as Russia has always been a basket-case

Originally Posted by misskit

Putin also said that Moscow is trying to "defend its right to exist" in the face of Western efforts to "destroy" his country.

Dear Putler,

Why would we want to destroy "our" gas station? We are paying good money so Russians can have a good life and spend their money in "our" countries.
Great deal! Keep up the good work.

Sincerely
HtG


P.S.
Don't worry about our military! It's in sad shape.

Originally Posted by HermantheGerman

Don't worry about our military! It's in sad shape.

So is his . . . the solution . . . don't fucking invade anyone, Russian apes

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27
Oct 27, 2022 - Press ISW


Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject the idea of Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations. Putin continued to reject Ukrainian sovereignty during a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 27. Putin stated that the “single real guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty” can only be Russia, which “created” Ukraine. Putin reiterated that it is a “historical fact” that Ukrainians and Russians are fundamentally “one people” that were wrongly separated into “different states.” Putin stated on October 26 that Ukraine has “lost its sovereignty” and become a NATO vassal.

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian ruble appears to be faltering in Ukraine's southern Kherson region, months after Kremlin-installed officials attempted to swap out Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia.

Amid an anticipated Ukrainian victory in the Kherson region as Kyiv conducts a counteroffensive to take back its territory, multiple videos are emerging on local Telegram channels that show employees at gas stations and pharmacies refusing to accept rubles and demanding customers pay only in hryvnia.

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Russian-appointed military-civilian regional administration, said in May that the region would transition to the ruble over a period of four to five months.

Kherson was the first major city seized by Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces after the war began in February.

Last month, Putin also proclaimed to have annexed Kherson, as well as Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, following sham referendums in the partly occupied regions that have been decried by international communities as illegal.

But statements from Russian officials and the Kremlin-installed authorities in recent days signal that Putin's troops are preparing to surrender in the region, while a number of companies are refusing to accept the Russian currency.

In one clip, an employee can be heard telling a customer that she was directed by a superior to only accept payment in hryvnia.

"Do you have rubles?" a customer asks a woman at the counter of a petrol station.

"We have hryvnia," she responds, before making a phone call, and passing the phone to the customer, who inquires about the move to refuse ruble payments.

Pharmacies in Kherson are also reportedly refusing to accept rubles. According to local residents, they still do not want to transition to the Russian currency, and the exchange rate for the Ukrainian hryvnia on the market has soared, local news outlet Stopcor reported.

It comes against the backdrop of a mass evacuation of citizens from Kherson.

Vladimir Saldo, head of the Russian-installed administration of the Kherson region, said on Russian state TV last week that authorities plan to transport about 50,000 to 60,000 people to the east bank of the Dnieper River within a week.

Stremousov also said that "the battle for Kherson will begin very soon" as he asked residents to "leave the area of the brutal fighting to come if possible."

On Monday, Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's defense ministry, told Ukrainska Pravda that Russian troops are simply creating the illusion that they are leaving Kherson, but in fact, they are shifting new military units there and preparing to defend the area.

Newsweek reached out to Russia's foreign ministry for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-rub...ryvnia-1754224

Originally Posted by misskit

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27
Oct 27, 2022 - Press ISW


Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject the idea of Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations. Putin continued to reject Ukrainian sovereignty during a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 27. Putin stated that the “single real guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty” can only be Russia, which “created” Ukraine. Putin reiterated that it is a “historical fact” that Ukrainians and Russians are fundamentally “one people” that were wrongly separated into “different states.” Putin stated on October 26 that Ukraine has “lost its sovereignty” and become a NATO vassal.

Institute for the Study of War

His cheese has completely fallen off his cracker.

One day they are going to meme the movie about him like they did Downfall.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

One day they are going to meme the movie about him like they did Downfall.

One day, after this war is over and Ukraine has won, many great stories will be told.

Russian Defense Minister Announces End of Mobilization

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that on Friday that the partial mobilization campaign declared to boost the Russian military campaign in Ukraine has come to an end.


"The dispatch of citizens called up during mobilization was completed today. The notification of citizens [to report for military duty] has ended," the state-run RIA Novosti quoted Shoigu as saying in a report to Russian President Vladimir Putin.


Russia had met the goal initially set by Putin and had mobilized a total of 300,000 reservists during the five week-long campaign, Shoigu said.


The total number of the mobilized reportedly includes 1,300 government employees of various levels and over 27,000 business owners.

"13,000 citizens expressed the desire to fulfill their duty … as volunteers. The average age of mobilized citizens was 35 years old," the minister said.


To date, 82,000 mobilized reservists have already been sent to the frontlines in Ukraine, while the remainder are still undergoing military training, according to Shoigu.


"I want to thank them for doing their duty [to the state], for their patriotism, for their steadfast determination to defend our country, our Russia, and therefore their home, their family, our citizens, our people,” RIA quoted Putin as saying in response to Shoigu’s report.


Russia began its partial mobilization campaign on Sept. 21. Though the initial presidential decree on mobilization did not specify the number of reservists the Kremlin sought to mobilize, Shoigu has previously put the number at 300,000 people.

Russian Defense Minister Announces End of Mobilization - The Moscow Times

Fighting Rages in Eastern Ukraine as Russia Eyes Bakhmut

The battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has intensified as Russian troops led by the murky Wagner mercenary group relentlessly exchange artillery fire with Ukrainian forces in their attempt to seize the small but strategically important city.


The fighting, which has grown increasingly deadly in recent days, underscores Russia’s desperation to declare a win in its eight-month-long war as Ukraine’s counterattacks have all but brought its gains to a halt in the past month.


“The continuing attacks around Bakhmut reflect the desire of both the Russian military and the Kremlin for some good news after months of morale-sapping retreats in the face of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives,” James Black, a defense analyst at the U.S. Rand Corporation, told The Moscow Times.


Capturing Bakhmut, a salt mining city in the Donetsk region with a pre-war population of 70,000 people, would give Russia a key foothold to launch offensives toward major cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — and vindicate Moscow’s decision to throw thousands of men at the fight in the past month.


“Bakhmut is one of the few places where Russia has been going forward rather than backward since the summer,” Black said.


Ukraine’s forces have this week repelled two Russian offensives in the direction of Bakhmut from the city of Soledar 10 kilometers northeast of the city, as well as from the south near Ivanhrad, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.

The Wagner group, which has taken a central role in Russia’s offensives in recent months, is apparently spearheading Russia’s moves toward the city.


“Wagner’s units are moving forward every day,” said Yevgeny Prighozin, Wagner’s Kremlin-linked founder, in a press release published by his Concord catering firm.


The heavy fighting has knocked out water, gas and electricity supplies to Bakhmut, where scores of citizens remain despite an estimated 90% of the population fleeing in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion.


“Regrettably, my parents stayed there, and there has been no contact with them for more than two weeks,” one Bakhmut resident who wished to remain anonymous told The Moscow Times.


According to Russian pro-war bloggers, Moscow’s forces on Wednesday gained control of Zaitseve, a key settlement south of Bakhmut that is located on a major highway running to the city center.


But Russian forces are paying a heavy price for every meter gained.


“It’s a meat grinder,” Jakub Janovsky, a contributor to defense analysis website Oryx, which uses open-source intelligence to track Russian losses, told The Moscow Times.


In recent days, unverified video footage has shown scorched earth and volleys of Ukrainian artillery being unleashed across Russian positions northeast of Bakhmut. In another video, a captured Wagner mercenary is seen claiming that of the 50 men in his unit, just 12 remain.


Among those losses are men recently sent to Ukraine as part of Moscow’s “partial” mobilization, as well as Russian convicts recruited from prisons by Wagner — both efforts aimed at solving Moscow's manpower shortage in Ukraine.


“I’m a trained actor, I’ve done over 20 films,” said one Wagner soldier on the outskirts of Bakhmut in a report aired on Russian state broadcaster Channel One on Thursday. “I probably ended up here because I’m a warrior…[These] are people who chose to become warriors.”

However, reports suggest that Russia is deploying its glut of new personnel recklessly in many cases. One Ukrainian soldier claimed that Russian recruits are ordered to approach Kyiv’s positions in a deliberate tactic to engage Ukrainian troops and to scope out their positions.


"Their job is to advance towards us, forcing us to fire on them, to reveal our positions," Sergiy, a major in the 53rd brigade, told AFP.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said these tactics reflect the “craziness” of Russia’s command in their unrelenting efforts to take Bakhmut.


“Day after day, for months, they are driving people to their deaths there, concentrating the highest level of artillery strikes," Zelensky said in his nightly address Thursday.


And with winter looming, Russia needs to act quickly if it is to deliver a domestic morale boost by taking Bakhmut, said Rand Corporation analyst Black.


“Historical experience suggests that the onset of winter is also likely to have a significant impact on military operations in the coming weeks and months, as a combination of mud, freezing temperatures and snow settles in.”

Is It Possible to Plan for Life After Putin? - The Moscow Times

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28
Oct 28, 2022 - Press ISW


Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines. A Russian information operation is advancing the narrative that Russian forces are making significant progress in Bakhmut, likely to improve morale among Russian forces and possibly to improve the personal standing of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces are largely responsible for the minimal gains in the area. Russian forces have made limited advances towards the Ukrainian strongpoint in Bakhmut but at a very slow speed and at great cost. Prigozhin acknowledged the slow pace of Wagner Group ground operations around Bakhmut on October 23 and stated that Wagner forces advance only 100-200m per day, which he absurdly claimed was a normal rate for modern advances. Ukrainian forces recaptured a concrete factory on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut around October 24. Ukrainian military officials stated on October 16 that Russian forces had falsely claimed to have captured several towns near Bakhmut within the past several days, but Ukrainian forces held their lines against those Russian attacks. Russian forces are likely falsifying claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine. Even the claimed rate of advance would be failure for a main effort in mechanized war--and the claims are, in fact, exaggerated.

Institute for the Study of War

Russia suspends Grain deal due to alleged attacks in Sevastopol by british and ukrainian forces

Originally Posted by helge

Russia suspends Grain deal due to alleged attacks in Sevastopol by british and ukrainian forces

A different take on the facts ...

What causes armies to lose the will to fight? Here’s what history tells us – and what Putin may soon find out

It was one of the strangest episodes in military history, an event so unusual that it was first treated as a myth.

At 8:30 pm on Christmas Eve of 1914 in the dank and muddy battlefields of northern Europe during World War I, a British soldier dispatched a report to headquarters: German soldiers have illuminated their trenches and are singing carols while wishing British soldiers a merry Christmas.

British officers ordered their men to be silent, but it was too late. A British soldier responded with his own chorus of “The First Noel.” A German soldier called out across No Man’s Land – the barbed wire-strewn, deadly middle ground separating the armies – “Come out, English soldier; come out there to us.”

The soldiers climbed out of their trenches and met in the middle. So did others, gathering to exchange chocolate, wine and souvenirs. They even organized a soccer game, which the Germans won 3-2.

Most of the soldiers who shook hands on that fog-shrouded Christmas Eve would be dead before the war ended four years later. But letters from survivors and grainy black-and-white photographs prove it was no myth. An estimated 100,000 soldiers on both sides simply refused to fight because they were too exhausted and jaded. The Christmas Truce even lasted until New Year’s in some places.

“By December 1914, the men in the trenches were veterans, familiar enough with the realities of combat to have lost much of the idealism that they had carried into war in August, and most longed for an end to bloodshed,” according to an account of the Christmas Truce in Smithsonian Magazine.

More than a century later, there’s little chance that Russian and Ukrainian soldiers will shower each other with gifts this winter. But the Christmas Truce story is an example of a peculiar feature of war that offers a warning to the beleaguered Russian army in Ukraine:

There are moments throughout history where entire armies suddenly stop fighting, though they are evenly matched or even numerically superior to their enemy.

What causes armies to lose the will to fight? And how might that play out with the Russian army in Ukraine?

This is the question that CNN asked combat veterans and military historians. While history is full of embattled armies like the Imperial Japanese Army in World War II, which fought with ferocious intensity even though they knew they would not win, it also records other armies that “quiet quit” — stopped attacking the enemy or did the bare minimum to stay alive.

Russia’s troops may be approaching that precipice, says Jeff McCausland, a combat veteran of the Gulf War and a visiting professor of international security studies at Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

He says it’s become clear that the Russian army is poorly trained and supplied, and that its soldiers in many cases have lost their will to fight.

“Fear and panic are more infectious than Covid” for an army, says McCausland, co-author of “Battle Tested! Gettysburg Leadership Lessons for 21st Century Leaders.”

The sources for both fear and panic are varied. But McCausland and other historians say that throughout the history of warfare, there are at least three reasons why armies lose the will to fight.

They lose faith in their cause

McCausland has seen a broken army lose the will to fight up close.

He says he commanded a battalion during the Gulf War in 1990-1991 and saw so many Iraqi soldiers surrender that his unit had trouble accommodating the prisoners. They ended up giving water to the captured soldiers and pointing them toward the rear.

The war started when the Iraqi Army under Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. But many Iraqi soldiers simply didn’t think Kuwait or Iraq’s brutal leader were worth dying for.

“There was one instance where Iraqi soldiers surrendered to a drone that was circling over them,” McCausland says.

A more recent example of an army losing the will to fight came in Afghanistan.

Amid the US military’s withdrawal from the country in 2021, the Afghan National Army collapsed. They allowed the Taliban to quickly take control, even though the US had invested years and billions of dollars in training them. It was a low point for President Biden’s administration.

The reason for the Afghan army’s complex surrender could be distilled in one question, McCausland says.

“If you asked a Taliban soldier, ‘What the hell are you fighting for?’ he would say I’m fighting to free my country from the crusaders, just like my grandfather freed the country from the Soviets and my great-great grandfather freed the country from the British. And I’m fighting for my religion, my country and my home,” McCausland says.

And if the same question was asked of an Afghan army soldier?

“He would say I’m fighting for a paycheck—if the company commander doesn’t steal it.”

The Taliban believed in their cause; the Afghan army didn’t, says McCausland.

They lose faith in their leaders

Every war has its defining images. The Ukraine war has already yielded some unforgettable ones showing the contrast in leadership styles of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Recent photos of Putin typically show him attired in a suit, alone at the head of an absurdly long conference table, in a large, sterile room, with a general or bureaucrat cowering at the other end. The caption could well read: “paranoid and isolated dictator in action.”

Contrast those images of Putin with those of Zelensky. One shows him standing resolute with his circle of advisors at night in Kiev after vowing not to abandon the city even though he and his family were in danger. Other photographs show him in fatigues, buffed and bearded, swapping hugs with soldiers on the front lines.

McCausland, who is also a national security consultant for CBS radio and television, says the images offer a lesson in leadership.

“Just look at both photos in terms of who would you like to work for,” says McCausland, who offers leadership workshops to companies, non-profits and government institutions through his company, Diamond6. “I don’t care whether you’re in the military or you’re working for a corporation. It’s pretty easy to decide.”

Armies lose the will to fight when they lose faith in their leaders, McCausland and others say.

They say soldiers don’t expect generals or other leaders to hunker down in frontline trenches with them. But they want to know if their leaders care for them and respect their sacrifice.
If you want to know how a leader can inspire an army to superhuman levels of endurance, consider this popular story from one of the greatest commanders in history: Alexander the Great.

Alexander was leading his parched army through an unforgiving desert in pursuit of an enemy when scouts returned to him with a scoop of precious water in a helmet. They handed him the helmet in front of his army.

Alexander thanked the soldiers and then, in full view of his troops, poured the water on the ground. He announced he would not take any water unless all his men had the same. His troops cheered.

Alexander the Great never lost a battle.

“So extraordinary was the effect of this action that the water wasted by Alexander was as good as a drink for every man in the army,” one chronicler would write later.

They lose the backing of their country

We hear commentators warn about the dangers of hyper-polarization in American politics, the corrupting power of unregulated and virtually untraceable “dark money” and the breakdown of civic norms.

What many don’t say is that these trends can become a national security issue in times of war. Put simply, an army can quit when their country becomes too corrupt or divided to support them.

A classic example is the mass collapse of the South Vietnamese Army in the spring of 1975. The US military had been South Vietnam’s big brother and benefactor for a decade as both countries fought the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese army.

But the South Vietnamese government was riddled with corruption. Its leaders and their cronies siphoned off military aid to enrich themselves, and never built popular support among the populace they purportedly served.

After the US military withdrew combat troops in 1973, the North Vietnamese army launched its final offensive on Saigon two years later. The South Vietnamese army refused to fight. News photos from that period show the army’s equipment littering roadways as soldiers abandoned their units and attempted to hide among the civilian population, says Derek Frisby, a historian at Middle Tennessee State University.

“Once it looked like North was going to take over the South, there was nothing the South Vietnamese army could do about it,” Frisby says. “Once the Americans left, it [the loss of South Vietnam) seemed inevitable.”

Wars aren’t just fought by soldiers. They are fought by a country, and its people and its institutions. They are what historian Michael Butler calls “social endeavors.”

The health of a country’s institutions - its government, military and media outlets – matter just as much as a soldier’s will to fight, says Butler, author of “Selling a ‘Just’ War: Framing Legitimacy and U.S. Military Intervention.”

Butler pointed to “On War,” the pioneering work by the 19th century Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz, who wrote that the “forces of passion” are every bit as critical to a successful war effort as the military and the government.”

If a government is corrupt and does not have the trust of the people, its armies can lose the will to fight, Butler says. He says that appears to be taking place in Russia, where society has long been afflicted by a “societal malaise.”

Its citizens have experienced the traumatic breakup of the Soviet Union, rampant corruption, political apathy, and the crushing of independent media and dissenting voices, he says. Political apathy has grown.

The malaise afflicting civic Russia may be spreading to its military, he says, adding that the signs are already there in the thousands of men fleeing Russia to escape conscription.

“That’s pretty compelling evidence that that the forces of passion are not really effectively locked into this war,” says Butler, a political science professor at Clark University in Massachusetts. “It’s not surprising to see that playing out on the battlefield with troops who are deserting or disengaging.”

The forces of passion now, though, seem to favor Ukraine. Its army’s men and women (women soldiers serve in combat units in the Ukrainian military) know what they’re fighting for.

“Ukrainians are motivated by perhaps the strongest force a soldier can have – defense of their country, families and homes,” McCausland says.

The big question for Russian troops this winter

The US military faced a crisis of morale half a century ago in Vietnam.

American troops never surrendered during the Vietnam War. They never lost a major battle during the war. The 1968 Tet Offensive, a failed campaign by North Vietnam’s army and the Viet Cong, was a military victory for the US.

And yet it was also a devastating political loss. The American public turned against the war. Antiwar protests rocked the country. The American public grew enraged when they learned their country’s political and military leaders had lied to them about the purpose and success of the war.

Many American combat soldiers simply lost the will to fight. The US’ abrupt withdrawal from Vietnam was one of the most humiliating chapters in our history.

The political context of the US’s war in Vietnam was different than the current war in Ukraine. In Russia, war protests have been crushed and the media has largely been uncritical of Putin’s conduct.

But on the battlefield, many Russian soldiers are discovering what some American soldiers realized in Vietnam — that they are fighting for a lie.

As John Kerry, a Vietnam combat veteran and future Senator who turned against the war, put it during a 1971 congressional hearing:

“How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?’

This is the question that may haunt Russian soldiers in Ukraine this winter. If Putin doesn’t give them an answer that makes their hardships worthwhile, the mass migration of men fleeing Russia after conscription may spread to the battlefield.

And one frigid winter night, when the only sounds may not be of Christmas carols but of men dying on the battlefield, Russian soldiers may ask one another:

How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/29/europ...cec/index.html

Commander of Russias Central Military District dismissed

Colonel General Alexander Lapin, the Commander of the Russian Armed Forces’ Central Military District, has been dismissed from his post.


Source: Chechen state television and radio; the Russian business channel, RBK: Meduza, the Russian Latvia-based media outlet


Details: On Saturday, a number of Russian media sources, including Chechen state television and radio and an RBK source familiar with the personnel decision, reported Lapin's dismissal.


As Meduza noted, Lapin has recently been actively criticised by Ramzan Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic: in early October, he accused the general of surrendering Lyman and called him "talentless". According to Kadyrov, Lapin, in charge of this area, did not provide the mobilised occupiers in Luhansk Oblast with the necessary resources, and he allegedly "was hiding" in Luhansk.


Two days ago, Kadyrov entrusted the colonel-general with responsibility for the defence of the area in the north of Donetsk Oblast, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have recently broken through. The Head of the Chechen Republic also has questions about Lapin receiving the title of Hero of Russia for the capture of Lysychansk, "in which he was not even present."

MORE Commander of Russias Central Military District dismissed

Largest drone strike on Russia since the start of the war 16 drones attack Black Sea Fleet at the Port of Sevastopol

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported an attack by unmanned aircraft on the Port of Sevastopol. In the morning of October 29, nine flying unmanned craft and seven “autonomous marine unmanned devices” attacked Black Sea Fleet ships at anchor in the city. Seven of the 16 drones were shot down. The defense ministry reports that the marine minesweeper Ivan Golubets and a floating barrier sustained “minor damage.”

The ministry called the attack terrorism. It also says that fighters from the 73rd Special Naval Center of the Ukrainian navy carried out the attack, allegedly under the guidance of “British specialists” located in the city of Ochakiv, in the Mykolaiv region.

In response to the attack, Russia indefinitely suspended its participation in a deal concerning the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. The Ministry of Defense justified the decision, claiming that war ships and civilian boats involved in ensuring the security of the “grain corridor” were affected by the attack. Russian president Vladimir Putin has previously repeatedly claimed that the exports protected by the deal did not reach the world’s poorest countries, contrary to the original agreement.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister, said that “Moscow is using a false pretext to block the grain corridor, which ensures food security for millions of people.”

Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhaev called today’s drone attack the largest such attack on Russia since the start of the war. After the incident, Razvozhaev also threatened people who posted videos of similar incidents on the Internet. According to him, Ukrainian Armed Forces can obtain information about Sevastopol’s defense systems from the clips. “Special services will deal with the individual clips that allow the enemy to detect the city’s defense systems,” he said. He also said that residents will no longer be able to receive broadcasts from the city’s surveillance cameras.

Commenting on events in Sevastopol, the Ukrainian army recalled recent remarks by Russia’s permanent representative to the UN about “combat mosquitoes.” Natalia Gumenyuk, head of the press office for Ukraine’s southern command, said “While there’s no official confirmation, there’s a clear understanding that fear of ‘combat insects’ and the use of aggressive air defense systems against them might produce a backlash.” Her comments refer to Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, who said yesterday that Moscow had information about US-patented drones capable of spreading mosquitoes infected with dangerous viruses.

One of the official Telegram channels of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also commented on events in Sevastopol. The post seemed to assume that the frigate Admiral Makarov, which became the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship after the loss of the Moskva, had been damaged. “But the information needs additional confirmation,” it said.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, UK naval forces helped organize the attack. The ministry alleges that the UK is also involved in the Nord Stream explosions, which happened in September. According to the ministry, “representatives” of a British naval unit located in the city of Ochakiv, Ukraine “took part in planning, supplying, and implementing a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26, to blow up the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines.”

Russian president Vladimir Putin has previously blamed damage to the pipelines on “Anglo-saxons.” “It’s clear to everyone whom this benefits. Whoever benefits from it, did it, of course” Putin said. He also said that someone who was “technically capable of making such an explosion, and who had already resorted to sabotage, been caught, and gone unpunished” could be responsible for the explosion. According to him, the beneficiaries are Poland and Ukraine (Russia’s remaining gas lines to Europe run through their territory), and also the US “which can now supply energy at high prices.”

The British Minister of Defense tweeted that its Russian counterpart is “peddling false statements of epic proportions.”

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/10...art-of-the-war

Originally Posted by David48atTD

Without providing evidence, Russia accused British troops of being involved in Saturday's attack - and in blowing up gas pipelines last month.

Those dastardly Brits . . . and how dare Ukraine defend itself. Putin is clearly gone with the fairies