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  1. #1926
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    It is and what I raised earlier. Putin can order but military is the button pushers. I believe they will ignore the order and Putin will be done.
    At this point we should possibly be praying that this is true.

  2. #1927
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Like your steadfast belief that Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine? You, sabang, have the least to crow about regarding pronouncements.
    Maybe it's time for an evaluation on ....who predicted/called the invasion.

    I think I saw Troy being worried some weeks before the 24th.

    I didn't believe it until Putin started talking genocide in Donbas.

    Then I knew

    So please step forward you oracles.

    Backspin doesn't have to; he called it many moons ago

  3. #1928
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Russian Troops Face Imminent Defeat in Eastern Ukraine Supply Hub

    Russian forces face “imminent defeat” to advancing Ukrainian soldiers in a key supply hub in eastern Ukraine, threatening Russian positions elsewhere and potentially undermining morale further, observers said Thursday.


    Russian military bloggers said Ukrainian troops advanced west, north and northeast of the Donetsk region town of Lyman on Wednesday. Russian troops captured Lyman, which had a pre-war population of 20,000, in the third month of the invasion in May.


    “From a staging point on the right bank of the Oskil River, the Ukrainian command continues the offensive aimed at reaching Svatove and encircling Lyman,” said Rybar, a pro-war Telegram channel that shares daily reports to 800,000 of its followers, in an English-language update.

    A key railway juncture, Lyman could be used as a gateway for Ukrainian forces' counteroffensive to continue advancing further east without losing momentum before winter.


    “The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk and western Luhansk,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a daily update.


    The Russian Defense Ministry’s failure to address these losses “will likely further reduce already-low Russian morale,” it added.


    In a daily briefing Wednesday, the Defense Ministry's spokesman claimed that Ukraine’s offensive on Lyman had failed and that 70 Ukrainian soldiers were killed.


    Rybar, however, noted that the Ukrainian forces’ manpower “allows the enemy to suffer heavy losses without reducing the onslaught” on Russian and pro-Russian positions.


    Lyman’s capture would also likely complicate Russia’s imminent annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south, following referendums that Kyiv and its Western allies denounce as a sham.


    The Kremlin said this week that the goal of the Russian offensive in Ukraine was to “at least” capture eastern Ukraine.

    Russian Troops Face ‘Imminent Defeat’ in East Ukraine Supply Hub - The Moscow Times

  4. #1929
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    President Putin signs a decree recognizing the independence of Zaporozhy and Kherson

    Urgent.. The Kremlin: President Putin signs a decree recognizing the independence of Zaporozhye and Kherson provinces

    9/30/2022, 7:41:45 AM Urgent.. The Kremlin: President Putin signs a decree recognizing the independence of Zaporozhye and Kherson provinces

    Urgent.. The Kremlin: President Putin signs a decree recognizing the independence of Zaporozhye and Kherson provinces - Teller Report

    As expected. Next step?

  5. #1930
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    As expected. Next step?
    It makes not one shred of a difference. Ukraine is going to take those territories back anyway. A waste of time even discussing it. Russia is on the brink of a major strategic collapse in the Donbass as we speak.

    The desperation is palpable.

  6. #1931
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    It makes not one shred of a difference. Ukraine is going to take those territories back anyway. A waste of time even discussing it. Russia is on the brink of a major strategic collapse in the Donbass as we speak.

    The desperation is palpable.
    What else did you talk about? Was the pub busy?

  7. #1932
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    ^^ Just like they were about to in Kherson, a few weeks ago? Your answers will be provided by what actually happens on the ground child. Seeing as we already know what you think anyway, there is really no need to repeat it ad infinitum on a daily basis. Tedious and boring.

  8. #1933
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Just like they were about to in Kherson, a few weeks ago?
    The ruse worked, and they are still taking more ground than Russia in Kherson.

    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Seeing as we already know what you think anyway, there is really no need to repeat it ad infinitum on a daily basis. Tedious and boring.
    If it weren't for ohoh, you'd take the gold in that department.

  9. #1934
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Just like they were about to in Kherson, a few weeks ago?
    I never said that, as usual you are trying to put words in my mouth. A few weeks ago, the Ukrainians were kicking the Russians teeth in up in Kharkiv oblast. Now they are on to Donetsk oblast. I have already seen plenty of drone footage showing the Russians attempting to retreat out of the Lyman pocket and getting blown to smithereens in a turkey shoot. Early in the morning in Ukraine, but I expect there will be some news updates coming out today.

  10. #1935
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Putin Declares Russias Annexation of Occupied Ukraine, Lashes Out at West


    Russian President Vladimir Putin signed off on the annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian regions on Friday in a major escalation of Moscow’s seven-month war with its pro-Western neighbor.


    Putin confirmed the annexation of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions as well as the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in a televised ceremony in the Kremlin's St. George's Hall.


    Ukraine and its allies in the West have vowed never to recognize the annexation, calling it a blatant violation of Kyiv’s sovereignty.


    “People living in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are becoming our citizens forever,” Putin said in a combative 30-minute speech that was marked by fierce attacks on the West.


    “We will defend our land with all the means we have available to us,” Putin told the room filled with hundreds of lawmakers and officials, including the occupied regions’ Moscow-installed leaders.


    Putin called on Ukraine to lay down its arms and return to peace talks with Russia, which Kyiv abandoned after widespread evidence of Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians surfaced in the early months of the war.


    “We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately stop hostilities and sit at the negotiating table,” he said.


    After signing the annexation accords, Putin and the four Moscow-installed proxies joined hands and chanted "Russia! Russia! Russia!"


    Russia’s parliament is expected to ratify the treaties next week, after which the four regions will formally become part of Russia.


    In his speech, filled with unprecedented anti-American rhetoric, Putin railed against Western colonialism and imperialism, claiming that the West wanted to turn Russia into a colony.


    “The dictatorship of the Western elite is directed against all societies, including against the peoples of those Western countries themselves. It’s a challenge for all. This means the total negation of the human, the overthrow of religion and traditional values as the crushing of freedom becomes to look like the opposite of religion – open Satanism,” he said.


    “The West is prepared to cross every boundary in order to preserve its neo-colonial system,” he said. “They want to see us as a colony… they don’t want to see us as a free society but as a crowd of slaves.”


    Putin blamed the United States for this week’s unexplained explosions at the Nord Stream pipelines that have left the damaged pipelines leaking huge amounts of natural gas into the Baltic Sea.


    “It’s obvious to everyone who did it,” he said.


    He alleged that Washington is "still, in effect, occupying” countries like Germany, Japan and South Korea.


    "What sort of alliance is that? The whole world knows that the leaders of those countries are spied upon, that espionage devices are installed not only in the offices of their leaders, but also in their homes. It’s a total humiliation. It’s a humiliation not only for those who do it, but also for those who, silently, like slaves swallow this loutishness without a murmur.”


    He also slammed Washington's past use of nuclear weapons, comments that follow his warning last week that he “wasn’t bluffing” about resorting to “any means necessary” in Ukraine.


    “The U.S. is the only country in the world to have used nuclear weapons,” Putin said. “Creating a precedent.”


    Putin's announcement of the land grab caps a whirlwind 10 days during which the Kremlin launched a “partial” mobilization and staged referendums in the four annexed regions — condemned by the international community — that delivered large majorities in favor of unification with Russia.


    And it takes place seven months into Moscow’s invasion of its pro-Western neighbor, a campaign that has been marked by repeated military setbacks including the failure to take Kyiv in the first months of the war and a rapid retreat from northeastern Ukraine earlier this month.


    For Putin, the annexation is a last-gasp attempt to portray the war as a success, according to political analyst Abbas Gallyamov.


    “By annexing the areas, Putin will try to portray that he is unbeaten. But the Kremlin is just going with the flow — it’s no longer a leader but a follower,” said Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin.


    Combined with Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Kyiv in 2014, Russia now lays claim to roughly 20% of Ukraine.


    Yet Russia does not control the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson or Zaporizhzhia regions, and Ukraine has continued to regain ground in its ongoing counteroffensive.


    Kyiv’s imminent encirclement Friday of Lyman, a strategic town just north of the Donetsk region, apparently defended by thousands of Russian troops, threatened to undermine the choreographed annexation celebrations.


    “The Russian Federation as we know it will enter into a new phase of its existence,” political scientist Yekaterina Schulmann wrote on Telegram on Thursday about the consequences of the annexation.


    Russia will be “a state with a delegitimized border, including fragments that not only will not be recognized by any other country or international organization de jure but are also not controlled by the central administration de facto,” Schulmann said.


    Ukraine said the only appropriate response from the West was to hit Russia with more sanctions and to supply Ukrainian forces with more weapons so they could keep reclaiming territory.


    U.S. President Joe Biden said Thursday that "the United States will never, never, never" recognize Russia's claims on Ukraine's sovereign territory.


    UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also rejected the annexation plans, condemning them as "a dangerous escalation."


    As Putin spoke in the Kremlin, hundreds of Russians gathered in Red Square in front of a stage emblazoned with the words "Donetsk. Luhansk. Zaporizhzhia. Kherson. Russia!"


    Putin is expected to address the crowds later today.

    Russia's Patriarch Kirill Ill With Covid – Church - The Moscow Times

  11. #1936
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    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Ukraine is making an "accelerated" bid to join NATO.

    Driving the news: The announcement comes on the same day Russia annexed four Ukrainian territories after a series of referendums that most western governments have labeled a "sham."


    • At the outset of the invasion, Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s aim to join the defensive alliance, which Finland and Sweden began the process of joining earlier this year.


    What he's saying: "We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO," Zelensky said on his Telegram channel.


    • "De facto, we have already proven compatibility with alliance standards. They are real for Ukraine — real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction," Zelensky said. "We trust each other, we help each other, and we protect each other. This is the alliance."


    What's happening: On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally annexed four Moscow-occupied areas of Ukraine on Friday: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.


    • Most western governments — including the U.S. and the European Union — say they won't recognize the annexed territory as Russian.
    • Zelensky's announcement in the response followed his previous warnings that annexation would cease diplomatic negotiations between the countries.


    Our thought bubble via Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath: A speedy accession for Ukraine into NATO is unlikely.


    • It would not only need unanimous support from all 30 NATO members, upon accession, it would also immediately thrust the alliance directly into a conventional conflict with a nuclear power.
    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

  12. #1937
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    Quote Originally Posted by S Landreth View Post
    A speedy accession for Ukraine into NATO is unlikely.
    If it's not speedy, it's pointless. I personally don't think all 30 countries will agree.



    Quote Originally Posted by S Landreth View Post
    it would also immediately thrust the alliance directly into a conventional conflict with a nuclear power.
    Too many armchair generals involved. Do it now or forget it.

  13. #1938
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    Putin Suffers Most Humiliating Ukraine Defeat Yet

    Moscow celebrated the annexation of huge swathes of Eastern Ukraine Friday but President Vladimir Putin’s party was wrecked by a lightning counter-attack that may have trapped thousands of his men in a key city supposedly now part of Russia.

    “This is the will of millions of people,” Putin said at a glitzy ceremony in front of high-ranking Russian diplomats still in the country. “People living in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson region and Zaporizhzhia region are becoming our compatriots forever.”

    But as he gloated,Ukrainian sources claimed that the strategic city of Lyman, which has served as a Russian military hub in Donetsk, has been encircled and supply lines cut. “Lyman! The operation to encircle the Russian group is at the stage of completion,” said Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko on Friday. The claim could not be independently verified but, if confirmed, it would be one of the most serious Russian military losses of the war so far.

    Pro-Kremlin forces have conceded that the Ukrainians have made major gains in the region and are close to cutting off the Russian staging post in northern Donetsk, which has been under Russian control since July. An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky tweeted that Russian forces would have to “ask for an exit from Lyman” if they want to surrender, adding, “Only if, of course, those in the Kremlin are concerned for their soldiers.”

    Ukraine said earlier in the week they had made deep gains in the stronghold region and were close to taking back the territory—despite Putin’s claims that the region now belonged to an enlarged Russia.

    Speaking after Putin’s formally announced that four enclaves partially controlled by Russia would be subsumed into the country against all international law, Zelensky vowed to win them back.

    “The entire territory of our country will be liberated from this enemy—the enemy not only of Ukraine, but also of life itself, humanity, law and truth,” he said.

    The latest military humiliation for Moscow will continue to raise speculation that Putin could decide to lash out in new, more brutal ways.

    Russian state television political editor Maxim Yusin warned that Putin intended to push the button on a nuclear attack in the “coming days or weeks,” adding that people should “have fun because it would be a shame to live out the remaining time with pessimism.”

    Military analysts say the recapture of Lyman could bolster morale and push the Ukrainian military to move to Luhansk province, which is the heart of the industrial region of the Donbas. Putin planned to annex Donbas after the bogus ballot referendum, which Western intelligence sources say was mostly held at gunpoint.

    Ukraine’s military outlined a large-scale counter attack. “If Lyman falls, our forces can… cut the main supply corridor to Russian troops in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk [in Luhansk],” Ukraine’s military General Staff said on Telegram.

    The British Ministry of Defense (MoD) said the gains came at the same time as a monumental supply issue for the Russians. “Medical provision for Russian combat troops in Ukraine is probably growing worse,” the MoD said Friday in its weekly war assessment bulletin. “Some newly mobilized Russian reservists have been ordered to source their own combat first aid supplies, with the advice that female sanitary products are a cost-effective solution.”

    Among the other issues appears to be theft, with some new soldiers using zip ties to secure tourniquet supplies, rather than the standard Velcro attachments, which make them easier to steal.

    “This is almost certain to hamper or render impossible the timely application of tourniquet care in the case of catastrophic bleeding on the battlefield,” the MoD statement claims. “Russian troops’ lack of confidence in sufficient medical provision is almost certainly contributing to a declining state of morale and a lack of willingness to undertake offensive operations in many units in Ukraine.”

    The British military also suggests that more Russians have escaped across the border than actually fought in the war so far after a mandatory draft was instated. “The better off and well educated are over-represented among those attempting to leave Russia,” they said. “When combined with those reservists who are being mobilized, the domestic economic impact of reduced availability of labor and the acceleration of ‘brain drain’ is likely to become increasingly significant.”

    Meanwhile in Moscow, plans for an annexation ceremony continue for Friday.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-...man-in-donetsk

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    A Russian Regiment, Currently Surrounded In Eastern Ukraine, Has A Tragic History Of

    A Russian Regiment, Currently Surrounded In Eastern Ukraine, Has A Tragic History Of Defeat

    The Ukrainian army reportedly has nearly completed its envelopment of the Russian garrison in Lyman, a transport hub in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region—and a top objective of Ukraine’s month-old counteroffensive in the east.

    Among the thousands of Russians reportedly trapped in Lyman are members of the 752nd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment. It’s a regiment with a tragic tradition of getting cut off, surrounded and all but destroyed. The 752nd GMRR was one of two regiment-size units that, on New Year’s Eve in 1994, got enveloped in Grozny during the first of Russia’s two bloody wars in Chechnya.

    The 752nd GMRR barely survived the First Chechen War. Its chances in Ukraine aren’t much better.

    Lyman has been in the Ukrainian army’s sights since the Russians captured the railway hub back in late May. But it wasn’t until the Ukrainians’ eastern counteroffensive gained momentum a couple of weeks ago that liberating the town became possible.

    First, the Ukrainians punched through Russian lines east of the free city of Kharkiv, exploiting weaknesses in Russian defenses that appeared as the Kremlin began shifting forces to the south in an effort to slow another Ukrainian counteroffensive along the Inhulets River.

    It didn’t help the Russians that the Ukrainians since late spring had been targeting Russia’s supply dumps and command centers, steadily starving Russian battalions and disrupting their leadership. The Russians east of Kharkiv abandoned their tanks and fighting vehicles and fled into separatist Luhansk Oblast.

    Barreling across the Oskil River, the Ukrainian army split. While some troops secured their Oskil bridgeheads, others turned south. They liberated Izium and its vital highway intersections. Then, coordinating with battalions advancing from the west and south, they began encircling Lyman last week.

    There reportedly were as many as 5,000 Russians in the town at the time. Some lightly-armed reservists from two Russian battalions. Two regiments from the separatist Luhansk People’s Republic. And the 752nd GMRR, arguably the best of the units in the Lyman garrison.

    The 752nd on paper is a powerful formation, although it like much of the Russian army has suffered steep losses as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its eighth month. Before the war, the 752nd GMRR possessed 41 T-72 tanks, 120 BMP-2 fighting vehicles, 36 2S3 howitzers and scores of other vehicles. It’s unclear how many vehicles remain. The Russian army in total has written off 6,600 vehicles that analysts can confirm.

    As the Ukrainian noose tightened around Lyman on Thursday and Friday, Russian troops began pulling out of surrounding settlements and concentrating in Lyman itself. “This is significant,” tweeted Malcolm Davis, an analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. “Another major setback for Russia in Ukraine.”

    By Friday there was no road out of Lyman that the Ukrainians couldn’t bring under intensive fire. Whether the 752nd GMRR and other units in Lyman surrender, attempt a breakout or fight to the last man will determine how many casualties the Ukrainians inflict as they inevitably liberate Lyman in the coming days.

    In Grozny 28 years ago, Chechen fighters killed and wounded hundreds, maybe thousands, of 752nd GMRR troopers. The regiment’s losses in Lyman could be just as severe.

    All that is to say, it’s nearly time to add the 752nd GMRR to the growing list of major Russian formations that Ukrainians have dismantled just in the last month. The elite 1st Guards Tanks Army and its supporting 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division, the reserve 3rd Army Corps, the 559th Bomber Aviation Regiment with its Su-34 fighters.

    What happens next depends on three factors. How much reserve combat power the Ukrainian army possesses after a month of intensive operations. How quickly the coming winter turns eastern Ukraine into a sea of mud. How quickly the 300,000 men the Kremlin is drafting begin reaching the front in meaningful numbers—and whether they’re in any condition to fight.

    It’s possible Lyman falls and the Ukrainians keep advancing. It’s also possible Lyman represents the culmination of the current counteroffensive in the east. Either scenario is a loss for the Russians. And likely signals the end of the 752nd GMRR as an effective fighting force, at least for a while.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=13c1ad007cf1

  15. #1940
    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    with the advice that female sanitary products are a cost-effective solution.”
    Nurses swear by this. It's amazing how much blood these will soak up.

  16. #1941
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    U.S. Announces Severe Sanctions on Russia Over Annexations

    The United States on Friday announced "severe" new sanctions on Russia in response to what President Joe Biden called Moscow's "fraudulent" claim to have annexed four Ukrainian regions.


    "The United States is imposing swift and severe costs on Russia," the White House said in a statement. It also announced that G7 allies support imposing "costs" on any country that backs the Kremlin's attempt to incorporate the Ukrainian regions.


    In a statement, Biden said "the United States condemns Russia's fraudulent attempt today to annex sovereign Ukrainian territory. Russia is violating international law, trampling on the United Nations Charter, and showing its contempt for peaceful nations everywhere."


    "The United States will always honor Ukraine's internationally recognized borders. We will continue to support Ukraine's efforts to regain control of its territory by strengthening its hand militarily and diplomatically, including through the $1.1 billion in additional security assistance the United States announced this week," he continued.


    Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, "the United States unequivocally rejects Russia's fraudulent attempt to change Ukraine's internationally recognized borders."


    "In response, the United States and our allies and partners are imposing swift and severe costs," he said.

    The Biden administration said the sanctions will target scores of Russian parliament members, government officials, family members and also industries supplying the Russian military, "including international suppliers."


    In a warning to the small number of countries potentially willing to recognize Russia's self-declared sovereignty over the four invaded regions, the administration said the G7 – Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States – had agreed to punish any such support.


    "We are also issuing a clear warning supported by G7 Leaders: We will hold to account any individual, entity, or country that provides political or economic support for Russia’s illegal attempts to change the status of Ukrainian territory," Blinken said.


    The sanctions announcement – which comes after multiple rounds of earlier measures designed to isolate Russia's economy and cripple its ability to maintain the military – followed Putin's speech earlier Friday in which he declared Russian annexation of four territories.


    The regions – Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia – are currently under partial Russian occupation, with Ukraine's Western-armed military pushing hard to recapture the land.


    In 2014, Putin annexed another region, Crimea, where Russian troops faced almost no opposition from the then badly organized Ukrainian military.


    This February, he launched a full-scale invasion of eastern, southern and northern Ukraine in a bid to topple the pro-Western government, but the revamped Ukrainian military has since partly repelled the invaders and continues to push Russian lines back.

    EU Unveils Stricter Visa Scrutiny for Russians - The Moscow Times

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    Even more severe than the last severe sanctions I tell ya, which followed the most severe sanctions ever- or so we were told. But Russia has turned it's back on you, and looks east. The SCO is now more important than the G7.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    The SCO is now more important than the G7.


    Buffoonery.

  19. #1944
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    In a warning to the small number of countries potentially willing to recognize Russia's self-declared sovereignty over the four invaded regions
    Unfortunately China, India and Brazil plus others may fall into this category. All of these countries have refused to comdemn, outright, the Russian action.

    Biden has a fair number of balls bouncing about at the same time. We'll soon find out whether he is up to the challenge. I find it all a tad scary.

    A true diplomat is a person who can tell you to go to hell in such a manner that you will be asking for directions.

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    Arrow Ukraine's Lyman Offensive Could Deal Another Major Blow to Putin's Invasion

    A Russian-installed official in Ukraine acknowledged Friday that President Vladimir Putin's forces in the occupied city of Lyman were partially encircled, potentially leading to what some believe could be a strategic Ukrainian victory in the eastern Donetsk region.

    "Our guys are fighting, we are pulling up reserves, we must hold out, but the enemy has also thrown serious forces. Very unpleasant news, but we must look soberly at the situation and draw conclusions from our mistakes," Denis Pushilin, the Russian-appointed governor of Donetsk, wrote on Telegram.

    Before this admission, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its September 28 campaign assessment that Russian military bloggers had been discussing Ukrainian advances in the Lyman area with "increased concern," as well as suggesting that a Russian defeat in the city could be "imminent."

    Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry had not been addressing Ukrainian advances around Lyman or preparing for the potential loss of the city, which could further deteriorate low Russian morale, the ISW said.

    If Ukraine reclaims Lyman, it would be the newest high-profile loss for Putin after several recent defeats for his troops in the eastern Kharkiv and southern Kherson region. To make matters worse, Putin on Friday formally announced the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, a move that Western nations have decried as illegal and illegitimate, and vowed that Russia will defeat Ukraine.

    Donetsk is one of those four regions, so Ukraine recapturing Lyman as Russia touts the "sham" annexation will be "psychologically humiliating for the Kremlin," Ben Hodges, former commanding general of United States Army Europe, told Newsweek.

    "This will shine a bright light on the ridiculousness of this whole sham of the referendum and then the annexation," Hodges said. "He can't enforce it. It's not theirs."

    Operationally, Ukraine recapturing Lyman means that several thousand Russian soldiers could be killed or captured, while most of their equipment there could be destroyed or captured as well, according to Hodges. He added that while he cannot predict how Russia will respond to such a loss, there can be a psychological effect and a "potential for panic" with this type of breakthrough.

    Following the potential capture of Lyman, the outside world may not know what Ukraine would do next, but Ukrainian troops have been clever in knowing how to exploit Russian weaknesses and seize opportunities, Hodges said.

    "I believe that they're going to push the Russians back to the 23 February line before the end of the year and that they will be in Crimea about the middle of next summer," Hodges said, referencing the day before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine.

    And when the approaching winter arrives, Hodges believes that Ukrainians will fare better and look to "maintain pressure" on the Russian army, which is allegedly already receiving new soldiers on the frontlines with "minimal" preparation after being conscripted in Putin's partial draft.

    William Reno, a professor of political science at Northwestern University, told Newsweek that Lyman and another Donetsk city, Bakhmut, "might be transport hubs of a sort." Logistically, Lyman and Bakhmut aren't fully without strategic importance on the ground, but their "significance is more political," Reno said.

    "This part of the conflict is a piece of the larger Russian strategy, which is to show Ukrainians and the rest of the world that Russia won't go away," he said.

    Ukraine still currently controls Bakhmut despite the city facing months of Russian shelling. The battle for both cities shows "the extent to which Russian forces still attempt to grind down Ukrainian forces," Reno said.

    "The value to the Russians is to deprive Ukrainian forces of the strategic initiative they gained from operations earlier this month to take Russian-held territory," he continued. "Though some territory changes hands, both battles present a picture of a stalled Ukrainian advance. This contributed to the political space for Putin to announce the sham referendums."

    Reno said that Russia is guessing that Ukraine's supporters around the world may back off in a year or two amid fears over the future of Europe's energy supply–Russia reportedly typically supplies about 40 percent of Europe's natural gas–and divisions in Western countries over Ukraine aid.

    But if Russia is not able to hold Lyman and seize control of Bakhmut, this would mean that Ukraine still has a "strategic initiative," Reno said. When Ukraine was able to reclaim territory from Russia earlier this month in rapid counteroffensives–the commander of Ukraine's military said on September 11 that his forces had regained 3,000 square kilometers of territory from Russia since the start of September–this wasn't a large percentage of what Russia occupied.

    "But it was significant because it signaled to Ukraine's backers that all the weapons, all the training, all the political support has a payoff," Reno said.

    Russia being able to hold its current lines in the conflict could signal to the world that the Ukrainian advance wasn't actually a turning point in the monthslong war, he added.

    https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-lym...-putin-1748043

  21. #1946
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    Russia blindfolds, detains Ukraine nuclear plant chief

    KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces blindfolded and detained the head of Europe’s largest nuclear plant, Ukraine’s nuclear power provider said Saturday, reigniting long-simmering fears over the plant’s security.


    The alleged kidnapping on Friday apparently took place shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated his war in Ukraine and pushed it into a new, dangerous phase by annexing four Ukrainian regions that Moscow fully or partially controls and heightening threats of nuclear force.


    In a possible attempt to secure Moscow’s hold on the newly annexed territory, Russian forces seized the director-general of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ihor Murashov, around 4 p.m. Friday, the Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom said.


    Putin on Friday signed treaties to absorb the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, including the area around the nuclear plant.

    Energoatom said Russian troops stopped Murashov’s car, blindfolded him and then took him to an undisclosed location.


    “His detention by (Russia) jeopardizes the safety of Ukraine and Europe’s largest nuclear power plant,” said Energoatom President Petro Kotin, demanding the director’s immediate release.

    Russia did not immediately acknowledge seizing the plant director.


    The International Atomic Energy Agency said Saturday that Russia told it that “the director-general of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was temporarily detained to answer questions.”


    The Vienna-based IAEA said, “in line with its nuclear safety mandate,” it “has been actively seeking clarifications and hopes for a prompt and satisfactory resolution of this matter.”


    The power plant repeatedly has been caught in the crossfire of the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian technicians continued running the power station after Russian troops seized it. Its last reactor was shut down in September as a precautionary measure as constant shelling nearby damaged electric transmission lines to the plant.


    The plant is a strategic trophy for Russia and has triggered worldwide concern as the only nuclear plant caught up in modern warfare. Active fighting nearby means it’s unlikely to start producing electricity again soon even if Russia installs its own management.

    It is like a town unto itself, with some 11,000 workers before the war. While many have fled amid the fighting, others have stayed to ensure the safety of its radioactive material and structures.


    Energoatom spokespeople told The Associated Press on Saturday that employees of the Zaporizhzhia power plant are being forced to submit applications to report to Rosatom, Russia’s state-run nuclear energy giant that operates Russian nuclear plants.


    Murashov was against handing the Zaporizhzhia plant over to Rosatom, but Energoatom’s spokespeople couldn’t confirm that this was the reason for his kidnapping.


    Murashov had access to security codes, coordinated all the work at the plant, made sure protocols were being followed and reported to Kyiv, according to Energoatom’s spokespeople. Ukrainian authorities appointed him to run the plant several days before Russian troops rolled into Ukraine.

    Nevertheless, Energoatom said it hasn’t lost connections with the plant and all important parameters of its work are still being reported to Kyiv.

    Russia blindfolds, detains Ukraine nuclear plant chief | AP News

  22. #1947
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    Russian Invasion of Ukraine Russian Forces Retreat From Lyman

    RIVNE, Ukraine — Russian forces withdrew from the strategic eastern city of Lyman on Saturday, a significant setback for Moscow just a day after President Vladimir V. Putin declared that the region where it lies was now part of Russia.

    The battle for Lyman, a city in Donetsk Province with a prewar population of 20,000, is particularly poorly timed for the Kremlin, coming shortly after Mr. Putin illegally declared the annexation of four regions in Ukraine where battles are still raging and a month after Kyiv’s victories in the country’s northeast.

    The loss of the rail hub puts additional pressure on the Kremlin, which has been facing blowback at home over its losses on the battlefield and over the conscription of hundreds of thousands of men to fight in Ukraine.

    Hours after Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said its forces were entering the city, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said it had made the decision to pull out of Lyman. The withdrawal staved off a potential worst-case scenario for the Kremlin in which Russian troops were trapped.

    “Due to the risk to be encircled, the allied forces were withdrawn” from the city to “more advantageous” locations, the ministry said in a statement posted on Telegram.

    Earlier, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry had posted a video on Twitter showing two soldiers unfurling the country’s yellow-and-blue flag at a sign marking the city limits. The army “will always have the decisive vote in today’s and any future ‘referendums,’” it added in a pointed reference to the discredited votes taken to justify the annexation.

    A senior Ukrainian military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Lyman was “already liberated.”

    “A mop-up is ongoing,” the official said. “The Russians have nowhere to run.”

    Last month’s sweeping and successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the country’s northeast sent Russian soldiers in full retreat, leaving Moscow’s troops in Lyman isolated and severed from their supply lines.

    Lyman, which fell to the Russians in May, serves as a rail hub that flows into Donbas, the mineral rich region in the Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk provinces that has long been the focus of Mr. Putin’s war aims.

    Ukraine’s ability to recapture Lyman is the most significant proof yet that Russia’s ability to control the Donbas is anything but certain.

    With Lyman under Ukrainian control, the battle for the Donbas enters a new phase. The city’s recapture means that Ukraine’s troops have gained a new foothold in the region and are positioned to claw back territory before winter sets in.

    The next target, if the Ukrainian military continues its advance, would likely be Svatove, a city northeast of Lyman where Russians have retrenched, according to analysts.

    Russia’s military, depleted and losing ground, is likely to be faced with a decision that involves shuttling resources from other parts of the front to slow Ukraine’s advance or continuing to lose chunks of the Donbas.

    Some of the nearest Russian reinforcements are roughly 25 miles to the southeast, around the city of Bakhmut. Wagner Group, an infamous paramilitary unit that reports directly to the Kremlin, has battered the Ukrainian defenders there but has failed to seize significant parts of the city.

    Ukraine’s slow-moving offensive in the south toward the port city of Kherson has largely been overshadowed by events in the east. But fighting there remains fierce as better-trained Russian forces have put up staunch resistance against advancing Ukrainian troops.

    nytimes.com

  23. #1948
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    European Heads Condemn Russian Annexations in Ukraine

    The presidents of nine NATO countries in central and eastern Europe declared on Sunday they would never recognise the annexation by Russia of Ukrainian territory.


    Their reaction comes two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed treaties to annex four Moscow-occupied regions of Ukraine -- Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia -- following "referendums" the West has dismissed as "sham".


    The presidents issued a joint statement saying they could not "stay silent in the face of the blatant violation of international law by the Russian Federation".


    "We reiterate our support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine," they said.


    "We do not recognise and will never recognise Russian attempts to annex any Ukrainian territory."


    The statement was issued by the presidents of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.


    Four of the signatories -- Poland, and the three Baltic states -- are on NATO's eastern flank with Russia.


    Two others -- Romania and Slovakia -- have borders with Ukraine.


    Hungary, which also borders Ukraine, was notably absent from the list. Its nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orban, has sought close ties with Putin in recent years and railed against European Union sanctions on the Kremlin.


    Also absent were Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia.


    The statement, published on the website of the Polish president's office, said the leaders of the signatory countries had "visited Kyiv during the war and witnessed with their own eyes the effects of Russian aggression".


    "We support Ukraine in its defence against Russia's invasion, demand Russia to immediately withdraw from all the occupied territories and encourage all (NATO) Allies to substantially increase their military aid to Ukraine," it said.


    "All those who commit crimes of aggression must be held accountable and brought to justice."


    The presidents said they stood by a decision NATO made 14 years ago, supporting Ukraine's wish to join the trans-atlantic military alliance at a future date.


    They did not comment on Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula in 2014, or on Ukraine's request last Friday for fast-track NATO membership following Russia's annexation manoeuvre.


    NATO members have hesitated at accepting a country at war -- which, by treaty, would oblige the alliance to come to its defence.


    NATO's Article 5 says an attack on one member is tantamount to attack on all.

    European Heads Condemn Russian Annexations in Ukraine - The Moscow Times

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    the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

  25. #1950
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
    All the countries with previous experience on imperial Russia. They know first hand.

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