Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by bsnub

Everything I stated from the start is coming into fruition.

Putin blinked. He lost. His pile of money was more important.



Huge win for the west and NATO.

15-02-2022, 07:28 PM

#1430

bsnub


What does 'fruition' mean ?

Originally Posted by David48atTD

I wonder why that is still standing?

Out of range of the HIMARS?

Yes. Ukraine would need the long range version of HIMARS rockets. Not yet delivered by USA.

Kremlin claims victory in controversial Ukraine referendums set to pave way for annexation



Pro-Moscow officials say residents in four occupied areas of Ukraine have voted to join Russia in a Kremlin-orchestrated vote that has been dismissed by the US and its Western allies as illegitimate.

Key points:

• The votes look set to pave the way for the regions to be annexed into Russia
• Pro-Russian officials have been accused of forcing people to vote at gunpoint
• Western nations have dismissed the process as rigged amid fears it will prompt another escalation of the war

Pro-Moscow officials said all four occupied regions of Ukraine voted to join Russia
According to Russia-installed election officials, 93 per cent of the ballots cast in the Zaporizhzhia region supported annexation, as did 87 per cent in the Kherson region, 98 per cent in the Luhansk region and 99 per cent in Donetsk.

The annexation of the regions — which account for about 15 per cent of Ukraine's territory — could happen as soon as Friday, setting the stage for a dangerous new phase in the seven-month war in Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the ballot would "radically change from the legal viewpoint, from the point of view of international law, with all the corresponding consequences for protection of those areas and ensuring their security".

Displaced people from the four regions were able to cast votes in Russia, where state news agency RIA said early counts showed numbers in excess of 96 per cent in favour of coming under Moscow's rule.

HERE

Originally Posted by Iceman123

Any links for any of that? Or should we just take it as gospel from the forum alky?

You can wait until it is on "TV".

Originally Posted by helge

What does 'fruition' mean ?

Since English is your second language I will help you out...

fru·i·tion

/fro͞oˈiSH(ə)n/
Learn to pronounce





noun
noun: fruition; plural noun: fruitions


1.
the point at which a plan or project is realized.
"the plans have come to fruition sooner than expected"

The United States will more than double its commitment of long-range rocket artillery systems for Ukraine, the Pentagon said Wednesday, part of a long-term strategy by the United States and its partners to ramp up weapons production in response to Russia’s invasion.

The $1.1 billion package will include 18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, the weapons that have wreaked havoc on command posts and logistical hubs behind Russian lines. The United States already has delivered 16 of the systems, capable of delivering precision munitions from up to 50 miles away, from existing stocks.

This new tranche will take a “few years” to build and deliver, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters, underscoring efforts to provide for Ukraine’s long-term defense infrastructure while allies and partners speed tailored packages of equipment and ammunition for the most urgent needs. The HIMARS represents a “core component of Ukraine’s fighting force in the future,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon.

Separately, the Pentagon said Wednesday that the United States intends to increase production of “ground-based long range fires, air defense systems, air-to-ground munitions, and other capabilities” needed to sustain Ukraine’s military for the long haul. In a statement, defense officials said that nearly 20 other nations also agreed to expand their industrial base and accelerate the production of arms that can replace Ukraine’s Russian and Soviet-era equipment with modern systems used by NATO.

The announcements come as Russia presses as many as 300,000 conscripts into service to replace and reinforce beleaguered troops driven back by Ukrainian offensives in the east and south. Readying those new troops will be challenging for the Kremlin, a second U.S. official told reporters, given the logistics necessary to supply and train them. Many of the Russian troops who would train conscripts already “are in Ukraine,” the official said.

The most recent arms package includes weapons and equipment that will take between six months and two years to deliver and require defense contractors to restart or intensify manufacturing, the first defense official said.

Ukraine also will receive 150 additional armored Humvees, which will allow troops to transport foot soldiers and maneuver around the battlefield during offensive operations, and more than 200 vehicles that will help them haul heavy equipment, a logistical challenge that comes with supplying large amounts of heavy weapons.

The package also includes systems designed to mitigate weapons the Russians have used effectively, including radars that can detect incoming artillery and drones.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...imars-ukraine/

ISTANBUL — To escape fighting in Ukraine, the 42-year-old Russian construction worker flew through two countries in four days, spending so much on tickets, so quickly, he lost track of it all.

Finally, he ended up in Turkey, where it was safe. As he stopped to breathe Tuesday, on plastic seats in the airport arrival hall, he conceded he had no idea where to go next.

But maybe it didn’t matter. “The main task is to save your life,” he said, as he picked at peanuts from a plastic dish. The avalanche of men fleeing Russia “don’t know what to do next,” he said.

President Vladimir Putin’s announcement last week of a “partial” military mobilization of Russian reservists for his war in Ukraine set off a frenzied dash for the country’s borders by tens of thousands of men affected by the order — but also many who simply assumed that their government, desperate for troops, would conscript any man who could carry a gun.

The mobilization is a risky and unpopular decision, bringing home the grim reality of the war to many Russians who were previously apathetic supporters of the invasion, or quiet opponents.

Putin, normally cautious about stirring dissent, promised in March not to mobilize Russians to fight. But after major setbacks in Ukraine, including the humiliating Russian retreat in the Kharkiv region, he has broken that promise.

The emerging scale of the exodus — more than 180,000 Russians have fled just to three neighboring countries, with the full tally likely much higher — has raised questions about the Kremlin’s ability to sustain its war effort. As more Russians cross the border, escaping the restrictions imposed by Putin’s government, they are providinga glimpse of alienation and unease spreading back home.

Many have fled to Kazakhstan, according to the country’s Interior Ministry, which said nearly 100,000 Russians had entered the country since Putin announced the call-up on Sept. 21. At least 10,000 have crossed into Georgia each day — double the amount before the mobilization, according to authorities there.

And thousands have flown to Turkey, always a popular tourist destination for Russians and now a hub for its exiles, who have arrived on packed commercial flights over the past week and even on chartered planes, with some paying thousands of dollars to secure a seat, according to passengers.

The construction worker, who like others interviewed spoke on the condition of anonymity out of concern for family members still in Russia, took the long way out. He flew from the Russian city of Sochi to Tajikistan on Sept. 23, and then to Uzbekistan. Early Tuesday morning, he flew to Istanbul, from where he was planning on traveling on to the southern Turkish resort city of Antalya, long a favorite among Russian visitors.

Back home, he had not waited to receive a letter summoning him for military service. And, in any case, his complaints ran deeper than the mobilization.

“I do not support my government, but I cannot do anything to change the situation. If you have another view from them and if you protest or write about this, you go to jail,” he said.

Like other men who had fled, he fretted for family members left behind. His mother, he said, “is nervous and stressed for me.” His visa in Turkey only allows him to stay for two months, but that was a problem for later.

A 32-year-old man who arrived in Istanbul on Tuesday said he left behind his wife and 1-year-old son. “Of course it was a very difficult decision,” said the man, an ethnic Ukrainian who said he was born and has lived his entire life in Russia.

The government, he said, was enlisting men “en masse.” Neighbors and friends had been called up. “I had no choice. I can’t go to war and kill people in Ukraine. And if I stayed, there was no other option.” He and his wife decided he should leave on the day Putin announced the mobilization.

“In one day, I quit my job, took the money from the bank, took my wife and the baby to my parents. My entire life is breaking apart,” he said.

For most of the Russians traveling to Kazakhstan, the first stop is the Kazakh city of Oral,160 miles south of Samara, the nearest Russian city with an airport. Lukpan Akhmedyarov, a local investigative journalist, said he took a Russian woman and her 19-year-old son into his apartment, with hotels and rental apartments fully booked.

The city is full of thousands of young Russian men of military age wandering around with their cellphones in their hands, dragging or carrying their bags, he said. “They all look very confused and lost. They look like a person who did something very unexpected for himself and he doesn’t know what to do next. They don’t look happy. And they are very, very quiet.”

Volunteers have set up a welcome tent near the central railway station, he said, offering newly arrived Russians free SIM cards, meals, water and hot drinks. Several local cafes, now open all night, allow Russians to stay if they have nowhere else to go.

The movie theater in town did the same, and 200 people are sleeping there each night, Akhmedyarov said. Others are sleeping at the local mosque, he added.

Many of the new arrivals had to spend three days in a queue of cars on the border, compared with just a few hours on the first two days after the mobilization was announced. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said Tuesday that his country would welcome Russians on the run, calling their situation “hopeless” and saying they were “forced to leave.”

“This is a political and humanitarian issue,” he said.

Some Russians who fled after the mobilization announcement said they considered leaving earlier but decided to save up first, hoping the situation might improve. Others simply delayed a decision that would result in an indefinite separation from family and home.

A 33-year-old filmmaker said he and his wife had actually decided to get out before the war, as Russia’s economy worsened and the threat of conflict loomed. After Russia invaded Ukraine, their conviction hardened: The wife’s relatives lived near Kyiv, under Russian bombardment, and the couple recoiled at Moscow’s propaganda about routing what it called “Nazis” from Ukraine, he said.

In the spring, the couple started the process of applying to travel to the United States on a talent visa for artists, but still hoped they could take their time leaving Moscow, he said.

Then the mobilization announcement came. The filmmaker was not among those slated to be called up, but “we understood they will take everyone who they can catch,” he said, referring to the government.

“We understood, me and all my guy friends, this is it, the moment. If you hoped to save your business or career in Russia, it’s all gone. Now you have to think about your life.”

His mother sent him a text message on Sept. 21, he said. “You have to go now,” she wrote. “You can’t wait.”

He and his wife discussed what to do for about half an hour, and then he started trying to book his ticketout of Russia. “It was a legendary process,” he said. “You enter the dates, you choose where to go, you push the button to buy and you can’t. At this moment another 20 people are trying to buy the same ticket.” He finally found a seat on Monday and flew to Istanbul.

“I am not sad at this moment,” he said. “Maybe I have some feelings — not for the country, for some places, for some people. For my family, for my grandparents — I will not see them again. I am not sad about the country. Now the country is in a horrible condition.”

On the day of the mobilization announcement, Sergei, a 26-year-old technician from Moscow, threw his passport and essential clothes into a bag, borrowed money from friends, bought a plane ticket and headed straight to the Moscow airport. He was on one of the first flights out.

“I was in complete shock,” he said, speaking in a telephone interview from the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, where he was searching for work.

“Of course I knew our government is unpredictable, but I hoped that mobilization would not happen. I had a feeling of sadness and confusion. I was at a loss. Now I hope that none of my friends who are still in Russia will be drafted. I’m really scared for them,” he said.

Although he left behind his parents, grandmother and family pets, he has no plans to return, and is trying to decide where he may eventually settle.

“The problem is that an old, weird generation is at the top in our country,” he said. “They think differently from us and we can’t do anything about them. We went to protest, but nothing happened, and now people are very afraid.”

Few of the men who are fleeing Russia now will ever go back, he predicted, and the exodus would affect the country for years to come.

“Of course, the best people are leaving,” he said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ation-ukraine/

How does puffy think he's going to hide all these kids he's sending to their deaths?

Is he that confident that he's got a vice-like grip on all information sources?

US Embassy warns Americans to leave Russia

The US Embassy in Moscow issued a security alert overnight that again urged US citizens to leave Russia immediately while there are still options for departing the country.


The alert comes in the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order for partial mobilization of Russian men to fight in his war in Ukraine.


“Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ US citizenship, deny their access to US consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service,” the alert said.


The embassy has consistently warned Americans not to travel to Russia and to depart the country immediately if there.


The embassy alert urged US citizens to “avoid all political or social protests and do not photograph security personnel at these events,” noting that “the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are not guaranteed in Russia.”


The alert added, “Russian authorities have arrested US citizens who have participated in demonstrations.”

Later on Wednesday a State Department official clarified that the alert referred to arrests in previous demonstrations and “we are not aware of any arrests of US citizens participating in demonstrations since the mobilization.”


The security alert said the embassy “has severe limitations on its ability to assist US citizens, and conditions, including transportation options, may suddenly become even more limited.”


“If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible,” it said.


US Embassy warns Americans to leave Russia | CNN Politics

I doubt that will work with Ed Snowden.

Originally Posted by sabang

I doubt that will work with Ed Snowden.

That's if he stays a dual citizen.

‘No Training’: Putin’s Army Just Got Sloppier Than Ever Before

Men that are being conscripted into Russia’s war in Ukraine during Moscow’s “partial mobilization” are allegedly being sent to the front without any training in some cases.


“Mobilized Russians are immediately taken to the front—without any preparation,” human rights group Perviy Otdel warned in a Telegram post. “We were officially told there would be no training before we are sent to the war zone,” one mobilized Russian said in a video shared by Perviy Otdel.

Basic combat training for American troops, by comparison, lasts approximately ten weeks, according to the U.S. army.


It’s not clear how, or if, Russia plans to arm and equip the new influx of manpower. Russian forces are already struggling with mounting equipment losses in Ukraine, including 1,190 tanks, since the beginning of the war, according to Oryx, a Dutch open source intelligence analysis group. By the Ukrainian military’s count, that number is closer to 2,312 tank losses, as well as 4,889 lost armored vehicles, 331 lost Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, and 224 lost helicopters, according to statistics shared Wednesday. Adding to that, Russia’s defense industry is struggling to replace equipment losses due to sanctions.


The quick deployment of Russian conscripts without training and adequate equipment is the latest sign of Russia’s slipshod approach to the war in Ukraine. Since the outset of the war, Russian troops have been encountering troubles with their equipment, training, morale, and preparation for conflict.

Their logistics and fueling preparation were so lacking in the early days of the war that the Russian military failed to capture Kyiv, the capital—one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key objectives in invading Ukraine in the first place.


Moscow announced the “partial mobilization” of 300,000 reservists last week after a series of blows to the Russian war effort in Ukraine—Ukrainian forces launched several counteroffensives in Ukraine that pushed Russian forces into retreat.


The mounting losses have given rise to a Putin under pressure and desperate—one willing to try withstanding domestic dissent, protests against the war, and citizens’ exodus of the country. But the haphazard deployment and lack of training the Kremlin has settled on for Russian conscripts will almost certainly continue the trend of failures, and could contribute to a dip in morale among Russian fighting groups, as well as casualties.


Technically, the mobilization is supposed to be reserved for those with some military experience, but fears are circulating that the Russian government may slash requirements in due time.


In an attempt to evade mobilization, Russians have been fleeing the country in recent days in large flocks. The exodus has been so massive that Russian authorities in North Ossetia, near the country of Georgia, have begun limiting car travel to Georgia as of Wednesday, according to The Moscow Times. Finland’s border authorities have proposed building a fence to prevent a mass-scale influx of Russians as they flee the mobilization. Over 100,000 fled to Georgia, Finland, and Kazakhstan in recent hours.


The disarray extends to the Kremlin itself. Rumors that Russian authorities will close the border to men of military age are circulating, but the Kremlin has not yet made a decision on the matter. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov suggested Tuesday that Russian authorities can’t keep track of how many people have been leaving the country since the mobilization announcement. Russian authorities set up mobile enlistment stations on the Georgia border in an attempt to catch those fleeing the country, the BBC reported.


Although the war effort is flagging, Putin still seems intent on sending his country’s citizens to war and trying to destroy Ukraine.


Russia is working to put up a more “substantive” defense and is working to advance near Bakhmut, according to a British intelligence brief published Wednesday. Russia’s main war effort now is focused on the Donbas, according to a Tuesday U.S. Defense Department briefing.


“We continue to see, particularly in the Donbas region, the Russians' attempt to conduct offensive operations in that area, with Ukraine successfully holding the line,” Pentagon Press Secretary Gen. Pat Ryder said Tuesday.


Russia is leaning on operatives from Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization, to fight in the Donbas, as well, Ryder said.


But Putin’s threats have escalated from sending more troops to nuclear saber-rattling in recent days. The Russian president suggested last week that the West was provoking Russia in a way that might force them to resort to nuclear weapons. Just Wednesday, Peskov said the Kremlin views the United States’ role as getting closer and closer to being a party to the conflict.


“The U.S. side is getting involved in this conflict ever more deeply,” Peskov said.


As of Tuesday, the Defense Department hasn’t seen any evidence from Russia that would cause the United States to “adjust” its nuclear posture.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...ining?ref=home

Originally Posted by sabang

Noted for posterity.

Like your steadfast belief that Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine? You, sabang, have the least to crow about regarding pronouncements.

Originally Posted by sabang

Noted for posterity.

Originally Posted by David48atTD

Drone footage taken on Monday shows massive queues of vehicles waiting at the Russian side of the Russian-Georgian border.

Some people were also seen on foot.

So much love for and belief in Putin and his murderous invasion

Originally Posted by sabang

I doubt that will work with Ed Snowden.

Hopefully he gets mobilized.

Originally Posted by David48atTD

governments opting to slim down very expensive manufacturing and only producing weapons as needed.

Erm, so now weapons are needed. If they did not want to retain large stockpiles, which is understandable, then surely to goodness someone with with a threat and risk planning role would have devised a plan to ramp up production very quickly when the need arose? No?

Ukrainian troops are encircling Russian forces in Lyman, an occupied town in the northeast of the country, as Kyiv presses on with its counteroffensive to recapture seized territory.

Maps detailing Ukrainian advance in the region amid a continued counteroffensive show its forces moving north across the Siverskyi Donets river from areas east and west of town, and east across the Oskil river from positions north of Lyman.

The British Defense Ministry assessed on Wednesday that over the last few days, Ukraine has pressed its offensive operations in the northeast of the country. Its units advanced on at least two axes east from the line of the Oskil and Siverskyy Donets rivers, where forces had consolidated following their previous advance earlier in the month.

Mike Martin, a fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College in London, said on Twitter that Ukrainian forces may eventually trap Russian forces in Lyman.

"Drive flanks north and east of Lyman, causing the Russians to reinforce this critical railroad junction," he tweeted. "Then drive a much bigger encircling movement to trap the whole lot."

It comes after a successful lightning counteroffensive by Ukraine earlier this month, which saw Kyiv recapture large swathes of its territory from Russia.

Ukrainian forces say they took back more than 3,000 square miles from Russian forces in less than two weeks, recapturing towns and cities and cutting off Russian supply lines.

Putin responded on September 21 by announcing a partial military mobilization of up to 300,000 citizens, while Russian-installed officials held sham referendums on joining Russia in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

According to Russia's state-owned RIA Novosti, the reported results included 99.23 percent in favor in Donetsk and 98.42 percent in favor in Luhansk—two regions partially under pro-Moscow separatist control since 2014—as well as 93.11 percent in favor in Zaporizhzhia and 87.05 percent in favor in Kherson.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry referred to the referendums as a "propaganda show" in a statement shared with Newsweek.

"Forcing people in these territories to fill out some papers at the barrel of a gun is yet another Russian crime in the course of its aggression against Ukraine," Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said.

Ukraine is pressing on with its counteroffensive, and according to military officials, Ukrainian troops have only 6 percent of Kharkiv left to liberate.

Liberating Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine, near its eastern border with Russia, has been "quite difficult" because Russia "does not retreat," Oleg Synegubov, the head of Ukraine's Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, was cited by Ukrainska Pravda as saying.

Newsweek reached out to Russia's foreign ministry for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-tro...ensive-1747189

Originally Posted by Shutree

would have devised a plan to ramp up production very quickly when the need arose? No?

All private companies, they will ramp up but will expect the Govts to chip in on any capital costs.

US lend lease starts in just a few days. I believe this will cue a major ramp up in production. That is after all what lend-lease is all about.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

The bottom line is that MAD is still assured:

Pretty much the bottom line. However, in this case, if Russia is stupid enough to use nucs against Ukraine NATO will not retaliate with nucs. They will move NATO military assets into Ukraine and within weeks push Russia completely back to Russia where they should have stayed in the first place.

Originally Posted by Norton

However, in this case, if Russia is stupid enough to use nucs against Ukraine NATO will not retaliate with nucs. They will move NATO military assets into Ukraine and within weeks push Russia completely back to Russia where they should have stayed in the first place.

They will do more than that. I strongly suggest that you watch the video I posted over in the Ukraine war mega thread featuring Gen. David Petraeus. Well worth the twenty minute watch.

Originally Posted by Norton

They will move NATO military assets into Ukraine and within weeks push Russia completely back to Russia where they should have stayed in the first place.

That's a fair bet, almost the best of all the worst case scenarios.
The question then is what happens if Russia use a second tactical nuclear weapon with NATO troops on the battlefield. It's a nightmare. I'm sure the allies have people gaming all the scenarios. Putin might be increasingly unhinged. He is committed to his vision of a greater Russia at any price because his vision of the alternative is no Russia at all, IMHO. Will his generals keep it going is another question.

Originally Posted by Shutree

Will his generals keep it going is another question.

It is and what I raised earlier. Putin can order but military is the button pushers. I believe they will ignore the order and Putin will be done.