Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

The Ukrainian military has recaptured nearly 300 square miles of territory in a lightning dual counteroffensive in the south and the east of the country, a top Ukrainian general said Thursday, marking perhaps the most significant advance in the war in months.

After weeks of stalled fighting in and around the eastern Donbas region, Ukrainian troops began pushing Russian forces back from the country’s second-largest city of Kharkiv six days ago, threatening to cut vital supply lines for the Kremlin’s assault. And videos posted to social media showed that the snap offensive wasn’t just racking up Russian casualties but rows of prisoners.

The Ukrainian push on two fronts, striking both east toward Kharkiv and south toward Kherson, has put Russian forces on the back foot. Russia moved troops south when the big punch came in the east.

“My understanding is that they are pushing everywhere,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

But the quick succession of military advances by Ukraine in the past several days, including into Balakliya and Shevchenkove—perhaps the largest of the war since Russian troops were pushed out of the Kyiv suburbs in late spring—has surprised some of the higher-ups in Kyiv, who expected the lighting offensive to move more slowly. On Wednesday, Colin Kahl, the U.S. Defense Department’s policy chief, referred to the Ukrainian moves as an “offensive,” the first time the Biden administration has used that word.

“They’ve done a lot of damage to the Russian forces” near Kherson, Kahl said at a defense conference near Washington. Ukraine’s armed forces said on Thursday that they had recaptured 20 settlements in the Kharkiv region from Russia. The push was made possible, in part, by long-range U.S. artillery.

“This is Ukraine cleverly spotting thin Russian lines with bad opportunities for redeployment, coupled with new, longer-range capabilities that can impact Russian forces,” said Oscar Jonsson, a researcher at the Swedish Defence University. The attacks also gave Ukrainian forces hope of retaking Izyum, captured by Russia in the early days of the April offensive in the Donbas region, and of cutting off the major supply junction at Kupyansk.

Yet just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to mobilize 137,000 more troops by January—likely in a bid to stem troop losses in Ukraine—Ukrainian officials believe that the defenders have been able to take advantage by seizing on a moment to attack thinner Russian forces in Kharkiv just as they have shuttled in more reinforcements toward Kherson, which has been effectively ranged with U.S.- and European-provided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.

“It seems like the Russians can’t hold the defense for the whole theater,” said Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker from Odesa. “They need to increase their presence somewhere. They need to take forces from somewhere.”

Goncharenko, a member of the opposition in Ukraine’s parliament, said Russia has also backfilled its ranks near Kharkiv with less experienced troops, such as those in Rosgvardia, Russia’s rough equivalent to the U.S. National Guard. But others said the Russian manpower shortages may be even more dire. “There are villages in eastern Ukraine where they have recruited everyone,” said Mylovanov, the advisor to Zelensky. “No one is left.”

The advances also show Ukraine’s increasing urgency to reconquer ground ceded to the Russians after Putin launched his full-scale invasion in February before a brutal winter sets in that is likely to bring heavy snowfall throughout the country and send temperatures below zero. Ukrainian officials told Foreign Policy that they are not eager to leave the liberation of Kherson, one of Russia’s biggest strategic prizes so far in the war, until after the winter. Oleksandra Ustinova, a Ukrainian parliamentarian, said Ukrainian forces are likely to be knocking on the door of the city within the week.

“They are literally running away,” Ustinova said.

But even with $675 million more in U.S. military aid heading to Ukraine starting Thursday, including more artillery and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems that have pounded Russian lines in the south, top Ukrainian officials are still complaining about shortages in ammunition. Officials said artillery shortages are most acute with 152 mm Soviet-era artillery, which has become impossible to source and which the United States and other Western allies are trying to backfill with NATO-standard 155 mm artillery.

But Ukrainian military officials still worry that they are vastly outranged by Russian weapons, despite Ukrainian attacks on Crimean supply hubs last month. In a blog post published on Wednesday, Ukraine’s top general, Valeriy Zaluzhny, and parliamentarian Mykhailo Zabrodsky urged the United States and other powers to more quickly provide long-range weapons such as the Army Tactical Missile System, which the Biden administration has yet to send to Ukraine for fear of provoking Russia into further escalating the war.

Despite the Ukrainian gains, Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky said they expect the war to drag into 2023 and that Russia could try to push on Izyum and Bakhmut in the east or advance farther toward Zaporizhzhia in the south. “Success in the south, provided it is used quickly and correctly, can have a double effect,” they wrote. “The prospects for capturing Mykolaiv and Odesa are quite real.”

Yet there also appears to be a consistent theme of Ukraine’s offensive: using long-range attacks to make it difficult for Russian troops to resupply themselves. Zaluzhny confirmed that the August attack on a Russian air base in Crimea was carried out by missiles and that it could mark a target for a later Ukrainian offensive. And other Ukrainian officials see the current pattern as building up to that.

“It’s a consistent strategy of weakening the supply lines and degrading the military capacity of Russia,” Mylovanov said. “So I think if they keep doing it, they’re going to make the Russian force collapse.”

Ukraine Goes on the Offensive

Originally Posted by bsnub

The attacks also gave Ukrainian forces hope of retaking Izyum, captured by Russia in the early days of the April offensive in the Donbas region, and of cutting off the major supply junction at Kupyansk.

The target is Kupyansk. A railroad and road hub. Ukraine troops are just 10km from the town. If they can take Kupyansk it cripples Russian resupply in the region almost as efficient as taking out the bridges around Kherson.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

The target is Kupyansk.

I mentioned that on the previous page. They are getting close to it. Also, it would appear that the Ukrainians have captured a general...

There is information that, in fact, in the uniform of a lieutenant colonel was Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoi, commander of the Zapad grouping of the RF Armed Forces

https://twitter.com/War2022ua/status...60165437284353

^^Ukrainian forces will likely recapture the town of Kupyansk within 72 hours as part of their counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Friday.


"Ukrainian forces’ relatively quick speed of advance, proximity to Kupyansk, and ability to shell the city are prompting panic in Russian rear areas," the U.S. thinktank said in its latest update.


Pro-Kremlin commentators had speculated that control of Kupyansk would allow Ukrainian troops to encircle Izyum, which Russian forces captured in mid-March, further south.


The ISW assessed that the loss of Kupyansk and other rear areas would “hinder” Russian offensive and defensive operations, but it would “not completely sever” communications with Izyum.

Ukraine War: As It's Happening - The Moscow Times

Originally Posted by misskit

Ukrainian forces will likely recapture the town of Kupyansk within 72 hours

Then that means that the Russian troops in Izyum are cut off from resupply and encircled. That is 10-20k troops. This is looking like a complete collapse of the Russian army in the east.

Good Lord, here we go again . . .

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

Again the EU has failed on Russian tourists

How so? Do you think the EU is one country that has no differing opinions? Doesn't have the sovereign right to issue visas or not?


Have a look at some facts about countries ceasing issuance of visas to Russians::

Worldwide/Russia: Update on Visa Suspensions for Russian Citizens | Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen & Loewy LLP

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

leaving the heavy lifting to the USA and UK yet again.

This'll be good. How are the US and UK doing the 'heavy lifting'? Are Russian tourists banned from coming to the UK?
The US? Perhaps you'd like to try again.

Originally Posted by bsnub

This is looking like a complete collapse of the Russian army in the east.

Perhaps we should temper the enthusiasm about any imminent collapse . . . Russia is quite capable of unleashing hell on the country if they decide to empty their depots . . . but being paranoid Russians they'd sooner drop the bomb

Originally Posted by panama hat

Perhaps we should temper the enthusiasm about any imminent collapse . .

Perhaps, but the writing on the wall is getting more and more clear by the hour.

Originally Posted by panama hat

Russia is quite capable of unleashing hell on the country if they decide to empty their depots

They have been doing that for months. The depots are running dry, and they are desperately buying weapons from North Korea. What we are seeing in Kharkiv oblast is an actual proper lightning strike advance that is working, unlike the disaster the Kremlin attempted at the start of the war that resulted in humiliation and defeat.

Russians Killed Two Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Staff, Abused Others

Russian forces controlling Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have killed two staff at the facility and detained and abused dozens of others, the head of Ukraine's nuclear energy agency told AFP on Friday.


The Zaporizhzhia plant — the largest in Europe — was captured by Russian troops in March. An uptick in fighting around it in recent weeks has raised fears of a nuclear disaster with both Moscow and Kyiv blaming the other for the escalation.


"A regime of harassment of personnel was gradually established," following the Russian takeover, Petro Kotin said.


"Two people were beaten to death. We do not know where about ten people are now, they were taken [by the Russians] and after that we have no information about their whereabouts," Kotin said, adding about 200 people had been detained.


He described the current situation at the plant as "very difficult," citing "torture" of staff and "beatings of personnel."


"The Russians look for pro-Ukrainian people and persecute them. People are psychologically broken," he said in an interview with AFP reporters in his office in Kyiv.


Frequent shelling of the plant — including the town of Energodar where the facility is located — means staff have been trying to secure safe passage for family members to leave the area, Kotin said.


"Two people on the territory of the plant were wounded during shelling — a woman and a man — on separate occasions," Kotin, clad in a military-style jacket, said.


"But people understand that the nuclear safety of the plant depends on them, so the employees return to Energodar and continue working at the facility," he added.


Demilitarisation zone needed
The UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) dispatched a 14-strong mission last week to the plant and released a report following the inspection.


Kotin said it described difficult psychological working conditions at the plant that ultimately amounted to "a violation of nuclear radiation safety."


"This situation must be corrected as soon as possible," he told AFP.


The IAEA in its report called for "the immediate establishment of a nuclear safety and security protection zone" around the plant as it faces an "untenable" situation.


But Kotin said there was room for interpretation there.


"If this is the demilitarization of the nuclear plant, we fully support it. If it is...the creation of some security zones with joint control along with the Russians, then this is of course an unacceptable decision for us," Kotin said.


"We will insist on creating a demilitarized zone around the plant, including with the participation of peacekeeping groups," he added.


Kotin also said Ukraine insists that Russia remove military hardware from the plant and that staff from Russian nuclear agency Rosatom also leave the area.


"For this, international partners need to put a lot of pressure on Russia to meet conditions that the Ukrainian authorities and the IAEA have made."


Kotin added all power lines connected to the plant have been severed as a result of shelling and the only reactor still on "is operating at a very low power level."


If these power lines are not restored, Kotin said, the station will go into blackout mode and will be able to rely only on diesel engines "to cool the nuclear material."


The head of the IAEA meanwhile on Friday echoed the point, saying nearby shelling had caused a blackout in Energodar and compromised safe operation of the plant.


Director General Rafael Grossi in a statement on social media described the recent shelling as a "dramatic development."


"This is completely unacceptable. It cannot stand," he added.


"It is necessary to renew the communication line with the Ukrainian power system as soon as possible and supply it with power from external sources of energy supply," Kotin stressed.

Russians Killed Two Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Staff, Abused Others - Ukraine - The Moscow Times

Russias 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment no longer exists: soldiers either dead or wounded Ukrainian Intelligence

Ukrainian Intelligence reports that due to successful counteroffensive of Ukrainian forces on several fronts, Russian occupiers are looking for a way to escape, calling their wives and asking the Russian Ministry of Defence to get them out of Ukraine.


Source: Ukrainian Chief Intelligence Directorate


Quote: "The 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment of the Russian Federation no longer exists due to either death or injury of all soldiers. A large part of those who survived are in extremely serious condition."


Details: It is noted that the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops forces the occupiers to ask the Red Cross for help and flee on stolen bicycles.


Similarly, Russians from the 202nd Detached Motorised Rifle Regiment, which is deployed in Kharkiv Oblast, left their positions and moved to the nearest forest strip.


The unit has no commanders and communications left. Currently, servicemen of the regiment are calling their relatives, asking to contact the command and find out where they should retreat. Some of them ask their wives to contact the hotlines of the Ministry of Defence of Russia and the Red Cross with the demand to remove them from the territory of Ukraine.


The occupiers tried to resist the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, attacking the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from tanks and a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower system.


Nevertheless, the Russian detachments suffered serious losses, left their positions and retreated in small groups. The occupiers complain about the powerful offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as the lack of ammunition and equipment. Due to the lack of logistics, they are retreating chaotically. Bicycles and scooters seized from the local population are used to leave combat positions. Many of the Russian soldiers are on foot.


On the Dnipropetrovsk front, the Russian army is trying to hold its positions. However, the upset with the new replenishments is growing, most of the "recruits" are 55-60 years old.


In order to maintain their positions in the Kherson Oblast, the occupiers brought reinforcements from the territory of the Russian Federation. However, the recruits flatly refuse to participate in offensive combat operations.


At the same time, Russian-aligned news outlets spread the information that the Ukrainian counter-offensive operation is a fake PR-action.


Kremlin propaganda tries to convince its citizens that all reports of a Ukrainian counter-offensive are a "show performance" for Europe and the civilised world. They claim that all Western-supplied weapons and military equipment were sold to unknown clients.

Russias 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment no longer exists: soldiers either dead or wounded Ukrainian Intelligence

Originally Posted by misskit

Currently, servicemen of the regiment are calling their relatives, asking to contact the command and find out where they should retreat. Some of them ask their wives to contact the hotlines of the Ministry of Defence of Russia and the Red Cross with the demand to remove them from the territory of Ukraine.

They are caught in what has become the Izium cauldron. It could be as many as 20k troops caught there. Not many good options for them to be honest.

The press is way behind this war, which is why I have been posting on the other thread and providing twitter links. Russia is on the brink of total collapse in Ukraine. Some posters may be hesitant to post in the other thread because they are not hearing or reading this via conventional news sources. Trust me, it will all come out in the next couple of days. This article is two hours old...

Ukrainian forces kept surging forward in the country's east Saturday after punching through Russian defenses in a surprise counteroffensive that could prove a decisive turning point in the war.

Kyiv said its military had recaptured swaths of territory in a thrust centered on the region around Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.

Officials shared a flood of images and videos from the northeastern region, with some verified by NBC News showing soldiers raising Ukrainian flags over once-occupied towns and villages or posing victoriously next to road signs. Others appeared to show troops being met by residents who offered soldiers everything from heartfelt thanks to pancakes.

“As of now, the armed forces liberated and took control of more than 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address Friday.
NBC News has not verified the claims.

But the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based military think tank, said in its latest update Saturday that Ukrainian forces "have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers (about 1,000 square miles) in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of September 9."

Russia's defense ministry shared video Friday showing military vehicles that it said were rushing to the aid of its forces in the east, while a Moscow-installed official in the region conceded that Ukrainian troops had made gains.

“The very fact of the breakthrough is a significant victory for them,” Vitaly Ganchev, who leads the Kremlin-controlled government in the occupied territory in Kharkiv province, said Friday in an appearance on Russian state TV. He said battles were ongoing for some strategic areas.

Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Vladimir Putin, refused to comment on Ukraine’s advances but said that the Russian president would hold a closed security council meeting.

Putin promised earlier this week topush on with Moscow's military efforts in Ukraine, saying that his country was gaining rather than losing from the conflict.

Events on the battlefield appeared to paint a bleaker picture for the Kremlin, however.

The United States expressed cautious optimism about Ukraine’s counteroffensive, with the Pentagon saying Kyiv’s forces were putting Western-supplied weapons to good use.

“We see success in Kherson now, we see some success in Kharkiv and so that is very, very encouraging,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a news conference Friday during a visit to Prague.

Sasha Baker, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, told reporters in Washington it was “probably too soon to have a definitive assessment,” but added that “I think we’ve seen some encouraging signs.

But she added that Russia represented “a formidable adversary” and that there was “a long fight ahead.”

A senior U.S. military official told NBC News it was clear Ukrainian forces were “making progress,” adding: “They’ve advanced significantly in the last few days.”

Ukraine initially launched a counteroffensive in the country's south late last month after weeks of public buildup and preparation, as it aimed to push toward the crucial coastal city of Kherson.

Then this week, after Russia redeployed large numbers of its own forces to the south to combat that effort, reports began to emerge of Kyiv's forces launching another counteroffensive further north — a move that appeared to catch both the broader world and Moscow's military off guard.

"Either the Russians were too incompetent to see it, or they were so incompetent they saw it and couldn’t do anything,” Phillips O’Brien, chairman of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, said earlier this week. “And neither of those are comforting for them.”

Some Western military analysts said the advance appeared aimed at shutting off supply and communication lines Russia has relied on to sustain its forces in eastern Ukraine, and could potentially leave thousands of Russian troops encircled around the city of Izyum.

The industrial Donbas region has long been the focal point of Putin's war effort, with such sweeping advances on either side largely unheard of in a grinding, attritional conflict.

Glen Grant, a retired British officer who worked as a defense reform expert in Ukraine before the war, said there remained some questions about the success of the counteroffensive. For instance, had Ukraine beaten back Russian forces or were they "driving into fresh air?"

"In other words, there's nobody there," he said, adding that he wanted to know if Ukraine was laying down strong supply lines and artillery support as it moved forward.

Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday that Ukraine was taking advantage of the Western-made weapons now in its arsenal, including U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems.

“Russian strategic objectives have been defeated,” he told reporters at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. . “The war is not over. But so far, the Russian strategic objectives have been defeated.”

President Joe Biden this week approved an additional $675 million in military aid for Ukraine, including more artillery ammunition, armored vehicles and anti-tank systems.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Brussels after Blinken's trip to Kyiv, said the war was “entering a critical phase," requiring the West to remain clear eyed about what's at stake.

"If Russia stops fighting, there will be peace," he said. "If Ukraine stops fighting, it will cease to exist as an independent nation. So we must stay the course, for Ukraine’s sake and for ours.”

Ukraine retakes Russian-occupied land near Kharkiv with surprise counteroffensive

In some liberated villages the Russians had occupied and trashed one in every three houses according to western news sources. The Ukrainian forces are being followed by police who are attempting to restore some normality as well as war crimes officials to document the trail of torture, abuse and murder committed by the Russians that they find in many towns they liberate. News sources are unsure of how much territory has been gained as the Ukraine army progress is faster than what can be reported. This has been a catastrophic intelligence failure by the Russian military intelligence who had been expecting a push further south and a masterstroke of disinformation by the Ukrainians that not only fooled the Russians but many analysts. Phone calls have been intercepted from desperate Russian soldiers to relatives asking them to make representations to the government to get them withdrawn from Ukraine territory, unfortunately that is a forlorn hope.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

This has been a catastrophic intelligence failure by the Russian military intelligence who had been expecting a push further south and a masterstroke of disinformation by the Ukrainians that not only fooled the Russians but many analysts.

It is one of the most daring offensives in recent memory, and the Ukrainians pulled it off brilliantly, and now they are pressing on to Lysychansk. Nothing short of remarkable.

Ukrainian military is on the outskirts of Lysychansk Head of Luhansk Oblast Military Administration

Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine’s Kharkiv area

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Saturday that it was pulling back troops from two areas in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region where a Ukrainian counteroffensive has made significant advances in the past week.


The news came after days of apparent advances by Ukraine south of Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, in what could become the biggest battlefield success for Ukrainian forces since they thwarted a Russian attempt to seize the capital, Kyiv, at the start of the nearly seven-month war.


“The Russian army in these days is demonstrating the best that it can do — showing its back,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video released by his office Saturday night. “And, of course, it’s a good decision for them to run.”

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said troops would be regrouped from the Balakliya and Izyum areas to the eastern Donetsk region. Izyum was a major base for Russian forces in the Kharkiv region, and earlier this week social media videos showed residents of Balakliya joyfully cheering as Ukrainian troops moved in.

Konashenkov said the Russian move was being made “in order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbas,’” an eastern area home to two separatist regions that Russia has declared sovereign.


The claim of a withdrawal to concentrate on Donetsk is similar to the justification Russia gave for pulling back its forces from the Kyiv region earlier this year when they failed to take the capital.


Igor Girkin, a Russian who was an early leader of a Moscow-backed separatist uprising in Donetsk in 2014, sneered at the portrayal of the pullback being strategic. On the messaging app Telegram, he acidly called it “the brilliant (clearly within the framework of the plan and even ahead of schedule) operation to transfer the cities of Izyum, Balakliya and Kupiansk to respected Ukrainian partners.”


Earlier Saturday, Ukrainian officials claimed major gains in the Kharkiv region, saying their troops had cut off vital supplies to Izyum.


Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko also suggested troops had retaken Kupiansk, a town along the main supply route to Izyum, long a focus on the Russian front line and the site of heavy artillery and other fighting. Nikolenko tweeted a photo showing soldiers in front of what he said was a government building in Kupiansk, 73 kilometers (45 miles) north of Izyum.

The Ukrainian Security Service posted a message hours later saying troops were in Kupiansk, further suggesting it had been seized. The military did not immediately confirm entering the town, a railway hub that Russia seized in February.


Videos on social media appeared to show Ukrainian forces on the outskirts of Izyum at a roadside checkpoint. A large statue with the city’s name could be seen in the images. Ukrainian forces did not acknowledge holding the city.


Britain’s Defense Ministry said Saturday that it believed Ukrainian troops had advanced as much as 50 kilometers (30 miles) south of Kharkiv, and described Russian forces around Izyum as “increasingly isolated.”

“Russian forces were likely taken by surprise. The sector was only lightly held and Ukrainian units have captured or surrounded several towns,” the British military said, adding that the loss of Kupiansk would greatly affect Russian supply lines.


The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, likewise referenced sweeping Ukrainian gains, estimating that Kyiv has seized around 2,500 square kilometers (965 square miles) in its eastern breakthrough. The institute said it appeared that “disorganized Russian forces (were) caught in the rapid Ukrainian advance,” and cited social media images of apparent Russian prisoners seized around Izyum and surrounding towns.

The same report said Ukrainian forces “may collapse Russian positions around Izyum if they sever Russian ground lines of communication” north and south of the town.


Vladislav Sokolov, head of the Russian-appointed local administration, said on social media that authorities in Izyum had started evacuating residents to Russia.

The fighting in eastern Ukraine comes amid an ongoing offensive around Kherson in the south. Analysts suggest Russia may have taken soldiers from the east to reinforce the latter area, offering the Ukrainians the opportunity to strike a weakened front line.


Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the television channel Ukraina that the Russians had no food or fuel for their troops in the area as Kyiv had cut off their supply lines.


“It will be like an avalanche,” he said, predicting a Russian fallback. “One line of defense will shake, and it will fall.”


The Ukrainian military was more circumspect, claiming to have taken “more than 1,000 square kilometers” (386 square miles) from pro-Kremlin forces this week. It said that “in some areas, units of the Defense Forces have penetrated the enemy’s defenses to a depth of 50 kilometers,” matching the British assessment, but did not disclose geographical details.

Officials in Kyiv have for weeks been tight-lipped about plans for a counteroffensive, urging residents to refrain from sharing information on social media.


However, Zelenskyy said Friday that troops had reclaimed more than 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region since the start of the counteroffensive.


Elsewhere, Ukrainian emergency services reported that a 62-year-old woman was killed in a Russian missile strike in the Kharkiv region when her home was flattened overnight.


The Ukrainian governor of Kharkiv, Oleh Syniehubov, accused Moscow of pummeling retaken settlements. He said via Telegram that five civilians were hospitalized in the Izyum district, while nine others suffered injuries elsewhere in the region.


In the embattled Donbas, the Ukrainian governor said civilians were killed and wounded overnight by Russian shelling near the city of Bakhmut, a key target of the stalled Russian offensive. Pavlo Kyrylenko said on Telegram that two people died and two were injured in Bakhmut and the neighboring village of Yahidne.


In the Russian-held city of Enerhodar, home to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, electricity and water were restored after a four-day outage due to an explosion, the city’s Ukrainian mayor, Dmytro Orlov, said.


Enerhodar and its Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have come under repeated shelling in recent weeks, which Russia and Ukraine accused each other of committing. The shelling has raised fears of a radiation leak at the plant, which has been cut off from outside power sources; the facility has been forced to rely on power from its only working reactor for systems cooling and other safety measures.


Orlov said workers from the plant assisted in restoring Enerhodar’s power, but it was not clear if the electricity was coming from the plant or from a nearby thermal generating station.


Also Saturday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock paid an unannounced visit to Kyiv and said Europe would not tire of helping Ukraine, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to raise the pressure by withholding energy supplies.


Baerbock said Germany will assist Ukraine in finding and removing mines and other unexploded ordnance left by Russian troops in areas where they have been pushed back.


Despite Ukraine’s gains, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the head of NATO warned Friday that the war would likely drag on for months. Blinken said the conflict was entering a critical period and urged Ukraine’s Western backers to keep up their support through what could be a difficult winter.

Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine'''s Kharkiv area | AP News

“The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia,” Igor Girkin, a far-right nationalist, grumbled in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. “We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time.”

Girkin, a former Russian intelligence colonel who became a commander of the pro-Russian separatist forces in 2014, is arguably the most prominent voice within an increasingly loud and angry group of ultra-nationalist and pro-war bloggers who have taken to berating the Kremlin for its failure to achieve its tactical objectives as the fighting in Ukraine has entered its seventh month.

After Ukraine’s latest counter-offensive in the south and the north-east of the country, these bloggers – who have so far been granted a public platform denied to many – have intensified their criticism of the Kremlin, slamming the army’s inadequate performance in the war and urging Vladimir Putin to declare a full-scale mobilisation.

“They are certainly getting angrier, and with good and obvious reason, especially as the gap between the official line and the reality on the ground widens,” said Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian security affairs.

On Wednesday, Ukraine launched a surprise counterattack near the country’s second biggest city of Kharkiv, encircling Balakliia, a strategically important town of 27,000 people, and recapturing several smaller settlements.

The military bloggers, who are often former veterans with contacts on the frontlines, also provide a rare insight into Russia’s real performance on the ground. “Some are very dubious sources but there are also those – like Girkin – who know what they’re talking about and clearly are in touch with people at the front or who otherwise are in the know,” said Galeotti.

The Russian government has not published its own losses since 25 March, when it gave a total of 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded. Western intelligence believes as many as 80,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of the war.

Instead, since the onset of the war, the Russian defence ministry has repeatedly issued improbable statements about its successes on the battlefield, boasting of having destroyed more than 40 western-made Himars rocket launchers and claiming to have decimated the Ukrainian air force.

State television, the most popular source of information in Russia, similarly continues to paint a rosy picture of Russian successes in Ukraine. In a combative speech on Wednesday, Putin reiterated that Russia had “lost nothing” in a war he said was going according to plan.

However, that optimism was not shared by others as Ukraine encircled Balakliia on Wednesday, pulling off what has already been labelled as one of the war’s most impressive strategic moves and hailed as “good news” by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Wednesday night.

“It must be stated that in Balakliia, the armed forces of Ukraine have completely outplayed our command,” Starshe Eddy, a popular pro-war Russian blogger, wrote on his Telegram channel.

Starshe Eddy’s audience on Telegram, like those of other war bloggers, has ballooned since the start of the invasion, from about 28,000 in January to 500,000, according to Tgstat, an analytics service for Telegram channels.

Pointing to Russia’s non-reaction to the Ukrainian offensive, Aleksandr Kots, a pro-Kremlin war journalist, accused the authorities on Wednesday of hiding “bad news” about the situation on the ground. “We need to start doing something about the system where our leadership doesn’t like to talk about bad news, and their subordinates don’t want to upset their bosses,” he said.

Ukraine’s latest offensive has also led to renewed calls from the far-right nationalist for a general mobilisation, a move Putin has so far opted against despite growing signs the Russian army is facing an acute lack of new soldiers.

“Mobilisation is, let’s put it bluntly, our only chance to avoid a crushing defeat,” wrote Andrei Morozov, another popular blogger.

For now, the Kremlin seems to be willing to accept the criticism coming its way from the band of pro-war bloggers. Girkin has repeatedly called for the firing of the defence minister and close Putin ally, Sergei Shoigu, urging in one post for the minister to be executed by firing squad.

The Kremlin’s tolerance of the bloggers’ comments is remarkable, experts say, given the newly introduced laws under which criticism of the war can be punished with up to 15 years in jail.

Pavel Luzhin, an independent Russian military expert, believes the bloggers are left “untouched” because they provide an outlet for a section of the Russian population to vent their anger about the failures in Ukraine. “The Kremlin is too scared to simply ignore the nationalist section of the population,” Luzhin said, adding that some of the bloggers were probably operating with the tacit approval of the security services.

Galeotti similarly said “many” of the bloggers were “connected to or protected by figures within the military or security agencies”.

For now, Girkin and other military bloggers are likely to keep up their daily criticism as Putin’s bloody military offensive has stalled in Ukraine. “Don’t EXPECT ANY BIG WINS in the next 2–3 months,” he wrote in a post this week. “If our Kremlin elders do not change their tactics, we will be seeing catastrophic defeats by then.”

Girkin declined to comment for this article, saying he considered the western media “his enemy”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-army-response

Originally Posted by S Landreth

But to run away like that, to lose yourself on the way, and eventually be stopped by a pro-Ukrainian tree?!: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1568675893131845634

Some backstory to that video...

I’m surprised a tank can move so fast! That is downright comical looking. It needs the Benny Hill theme song playing.


Otherwise, I do home the Ukrainians are able to care for Russian prisoners well and will call for international help, like the Red Cross, if they are not able to.

From the above sources . . . Feb 24 - Sep 10





And ending in:





Wouldn't it be great if it were all true . . . and then Russians would fuck off out of Ukraine . . . reparations are required by the butchers

Originally Posted by misskit

It needs the Benny Hill theme song playing.

There is a version with it.

As Russia’s full-scale reinvasion of Ukraine approached the half-year mark, Volodymyr Zelensky had victory on his mind.

“We can and should think only about how to win,” the Ukrainian president said in his Aug. 18 address to the nation.

And on the six-month anniversary of the invasion on Aug. 24, a date that coincided with Ukraine’s Independence Day, Zelensky spoke even more forcefully about victory—and spelling out exactly what that would mean.

“For us, the most terrible iron is not missiles, aircraft, and tanks, but shackles. Not trenches, but fetters. And we will put our hands up only once—when we will celebrate our victory,” Zelensky said that day.

“Donbas is Ukraine. And we will return it, whatever the path may be. Crimea is Ukraine. And we will return it. Whatever the path may be.”

Throughout August, in the weeks prior to Zelensky’s remarks, Ukraine’s armed forces conducted multiple attacks against targets on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia forcefully and illegally seized in 2014. These have included a series of strikes against an airstrip and munitions depots that Ukrainian authorities say were orchestrated by elite military units operating behind enemy lines. They also included drone attacks on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.

The strikes marked the first time that Ukraine seriously challenged Russia’s dominance of the peninsula in more than eight years and shifted the narrative of the war in Ukraine’s favor.

Combined with the recent victories in Kherson and Kharkiv, they suggest that a Ukrainian victory—rather than a defensive stalemate—is genuinely possible, if still a long way off.

Ukrainian victory is not an assured possibility. But if it happens, it would be a paradigm-shifting event for European security, on the scale of the events of 1989, when the countries of the old Warsaw Pact liberated themselves from Soviet domination. Officials in Washington and other Western capitals need to be prepared for the possibility.

At the beginning of the war, the prospect of a Ukrainian victory against the fifth-largest standing army in the world appeared beyond absurd. The assumption at that time was that Russian troops would take Kyiv in a matter of weeks, if not days.

But Russia’s initial blitzkrieg aimed at decapitating Zelensky’s government failed miserably. Fighting in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region is deadlocked. And on Aug. 29, Ukraine launched a long-anticipated counteroffensive in the south that aims to liberate the occupied—and strategically vital—Kherson region, followed by a quick, strikingly successful offensive in Kharkiv.

Russia has already suffered up to an estimated 80,000 war casualties including dead and wounded, more than the Soviet Union in a decade of war in Afghanistan, where the Soviets lost 14,500 troops and approximately 54,000 were wounded. Morale is low, and troop shortages so acute that the Kremlin-connected Wagner Group is recruiting potential mercenaries from prisons. Western sanctions are beginning to take a toll on the Russian economy, and, as importantly, hobbling Russia’s ability to acquire the microchip and semiconductor technology necessary to replenish its depleted weapons stock.

To be sure, Ukraine is also sustaining high combat losses as well. But in contrast to Russia, its forces are highly motivated and equipped by the West with state-of-the-art military hardware like the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. They are also benefiting from Western intelligence sharing.

We aren’t there yet, but the once-fanciful prospect of a Ukrainian victory looks increasingly realistic. Such an outcome could be something of a 1989 redux. Just as a weakening of Soviet power in the late 1980s led to the fall of pro-Soviet regimes across the former Warsaw Pact, today, the weakening of Russian power would likely have repercussions across the former Soviet space.
The fallout would be felt in Russian clients like Belarus, where Aleksandr Lukashenko’s grip on power might not survive the defeat of his patron in Moscow.

In the aftermath of the deeply flawed August 2020 presidential election, the ensuing protests, and the brutal crackdown on dissent, Lukashenko has lost most—if not all—of his domestic legitimacy. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, widely seen as the legitimate victor in the 2020 election, is being treated in the West as something akin to the leader of a Belarusian government in exile. Public opinion polls show a sharp rise in pro-Western attitudes among Belarusians and a sharp drop in pro-Moscow sentiments.

Lukashenko’s decision to allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for his invasion of Ukraine has proved deeply unpopular. It has also sparked resistance among Belarusians, including sabotage of rail lines to prevent Russian troops from getting to the front and a hacking campaign by a group calling itself the Cyber Partisans.

Meanwhile, hundreds of Belarusian volunteers have joined Ukraine’s struggle to defend itself against Russia by signing up for a paramilitary group called the Kastus Kalinouski Battalion, named for the leader of a 19th-century Belarusian uprising against the Russian Empire.

Given Lukashenko’s decision to go all in on Putin and his war, a Ukrainian victory could very well lead to a free Belarus. But the knock-on effects for the European security order would be felt beyond Belarus.

The fallout would also be felt in countries struggling to free themselves from Moscow’s influence such as Georgia and Moldova, weakening the influence Moscow is able to wield through oligarchic structures.

In Georgia, the population has long been strongly pro-Western, with large majorities favoring the country joining NATO and the European Union. But the ruling Georgian Dream party, which is financed by the reportedly Russia-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, has stealthily and steadily steered the country away from the West and back into Moscow’s de facto orbit.

Ivanishvili accumulated his wealth during Russia’s privatizations of the 1990s and maintains close ties with Moscow, according to an April report by Transparency International. He returned to Georgia from Russia in 2012, when he formed and financed the Georgian Dream party, which then defeated Mikheil Saakashvili’s pro-Western United National Movement and has held power ever since.

In addition to backsliding on democracy and seeking to imprison political opponents, including Saakashvili, Georgian Dream has also ended the country’s previously staunchly pro-Western foreign policy. The most recent manifestation of this trend came in July when Georgian Dream’s party chair Irakli Kobakhidze assailed the U.S. and EU ambassadors, suggesting they were trying to force Georgia into a war with Russia.

Georgian Dream’s vice grip on power is entirely dependent upon Ivanishvili’s wealth. And Ivanishvili’s wealth is entirely dependent on his financial ties with Russia. A Russian defeat in Ukraine and a hobbling of the Russian economy would weaken Ivanishvili’s hold on Georgian politics and open the door for the country’s pro-Western electorate to choose a government that is more in line with their values. A weakened postwar Russia would also have a more difficult time continuing to control and subsidize the occupied Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, possibly facilitating the country’s reunification.

The effects of a Russian defeat in Ukraine would also be felt in Moldova. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu has been in office since December 2020, and her Party of Action and Solidarity holds a large parliamentary majority. But recently, pro-Russian parties have been resurgent. This is due in part to the war in Ukraine, which has cut off Moldovan agriculture from the Russian and Belarusian markets.

Moreover, there are an estimated 1,200 Russian troops occupying Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region. There are palpable fears that if Russian forces are able to advance westward along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and capture the Ukrainian city of Odesa, they could link up with troops in Transnistria and potentially threaten Moldova.

But a Russian defeat in Ukraine would effectively foreclose on this possibility, diminish Moscow’s ability to influence Moldova’s domestic politics, and undermine the Kremlin’s ability to maintain its de facto protectorate in Transnistria.

Ukrainians are fighting not just for their own sovereignty and independence but also for the second liberation of Eastern Europe, finishing the process that began in 1989. The West needs to prepare itself to manage this potential contingency.

This year marks the centenary of the founding of the Soviet Union. And as 2022 commenced, it looked like Putin was poised to begin its restoration, first with what has been dubbed a soft annexation of Belarus, then with the subjugation of Ukraine by force.

Now, it appears that 2022 may end up marking the final stage of the Soviet breakup.

How Moscow would react to a new liberation of Eastern Europe would depend on how a defeat in Ukraine changes the internal political dynamics inside Russia. But in any scenario, Russia would be weakened militarily, economically, and politically. Its capacity to resist the new reality would be diminished. Inevitably, there would be calls in some Western capitals not to “humiliate” Moscow. But such appeals should be resisted.

Victory is a long way off, and it’s certainly not guaranteed. But the United States and its European allies should not succumb to a failure of imagination about what a Ukrainian victory would mean. A free Belarus combined with a truly independent, sovereign, and whole Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova would be a game-changer.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/10...astern-europe/

but of course the ruskies are only giniving up strategically unimportant farmland.

Ukraine war: Russians 'outnumbered 8-1' in counter-attack

Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russians by eight to one in last week's counter-attack in the Kharkiv region, Russia's top occupation official there says.

Vitaly Ganchev told Russian TV that Ukraine's army had taken villages in the north and broken through to the Russian border.

Ukraine says it has regained control over 3,000 sq km (1,158 sq miles) of territory in a potential breakthrough in the six-month war.

The BBC cannot verify these figures.

The Ukrainian army says it took back 20 villages in the past 24 hours alone, in its continued counter-offensive in the north-east of the country.

It also said its forces have taken control of around 500 sq km in the southern Kherson region of the country.

UK defence officials say the Ukrainian army's successes will have "significant implications" for Russia's overall operational design.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was however undeterred, saying operations in Ukraine would continue "until all the tasks that were initially set" had been fulfilled.

President Vladimir Putin is constantly being updated with the latest developments, he added.

Russia said its forces were carrying out strikes in those areas that Ukraine had retaken recently.

This included targets in Izyum and Kupiansk which were taken by Ukraine on Saturday. Russia confirmed its forces' retreat from both towns, which it said would allow them to "regroup".

Russia has been accused of targeting civilian infrastructure in revenge for setbacks on the battlefield.

A wave of missile strikes on Sunday caused power cuts across the region.

Ukraine war: Russians '''outnumbered 8-1''' in counter-attack - BBC News

Amid Ukraine’s startling gains, liberated villages describe Russian troops dropping rifles and fleeing

ZALIZNYCHNE, Ukraine — In the end, the Russians fled any way they could on Friday, on stolen bicycles, disguised as locals. Hours after Ukrainian soldiers poured into the area, hundreds of Russian soldiers encamped in this village were gone, many after their units abandoned them, leaving behind stunned residents to face the ruins of 28 weeks of occupation.

“They just dropped rifles on the ground,” Olena Matvienko said Sunday as she stood, still disoriented, in a village littered with ammo crates and torched vehicles, including a Russian tank loaded on a flatbed. The first investigators from Kharkiv had just pulled in to collect the bodies of civilians shot by Russians, some that have been lying exposed for months.


“I can’t believe that we went through something like this in the 21st century,” Matvienko said, tears welling.


The hasty flight of Russians from the village was part of a stunning new reality that took the world by surprise over the weekend: The invaders of February are on the run in some parts of Ukraine they seized early in the conflict.


The Russian Defense Ministry’s own daily briefing Sunday featured a map showing Russian forces retreating behind the Oskil river on the eastern edge of the Kharkiv region — a day after the ministry confirmed its troops had left the Balakliya and Izyum area in the Kharkiv region, following a decision to “regroup.”


On Sunday, Ukraine’s commander in chief, Valery Zaluzhny, said Ukrainian forces had retaken more than 3,000 square kilometers (more than 1,100 square miles) of territory, a claim that could not be independently verified, adding that they were advancing to the east, south and north.


“Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places,” reported the Institute for the Study of War, which closely tracks the conflict. They have captured more territory in the past five days “than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April,” its campaign assessment posted Sunday said.


The apparent collapse of the Russian forces has caused shock waves in Moscow. The leader of the Chechen republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, who sent his own fighters to Ukraine, said if there are not immediate changes in Russia’s conduct of the invasion, “he would have to contact the leadership of the country to explain to them the real situation on the ground.”


Evidence of the Ukrainian gains continued to emerge Sunday, with images of Ukrainian soldiers raising a flag in central Izyum, after it was abandoned by Russian forces, and similar images from other towns and villages such as Kindrashivka, Chkalovske and Velyki Komyshuvakha.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined to elaborate on his army’s next moves, except to say in a CNN interview, “We will not be standing still. We will be slowly, gradually moving forward.”


In a forceful statement to Russia on Sunday night, Zelensky insisted the invaders would be expelled. “Read my lips,” he said. “Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you? Without you. Without food or without you? Without you. Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your ‘friendship and brotherhood.’ ”


Ukrainians emerged into the string of just-liberated villages southeast of Kharkiv hailing the end of their ordeal, and wondering whether it is truly over. “Only God knows if they will be back,” said Tamara Kozinska, 75, whose husband was killed by a mortar blast soon after the Russians arrived.


It is not over by any means, military experts warned. Russia still holds about a fifth of Ukraine and continued heavy shelling over the weekend across several regions. And nothing guarantees that Ukraine can keep recaptured areas secure. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov cautioned in an interview with the Financial Times.


But as Ukrainian soldiers continued Sunday to sweep deeper into territory that had been held by Russia, more of them were willing to see the campaign as a possible turning point.

In Zaliznychne, a tiny agricultural village 37 miles east of Kharkiv, residents were feeling their way back to normality Sunday, sleeping in bedrooms rather than basements for the first time in months and trying to make contact with family on the outside.

Kozinska hasn’t seen her daughter since February — even though she lives 12 miles away — but had just received word that she will come to pick her up as soon as officials open access to the village, just as the weather turns cold.


“I have been so scared about winter,” said the woman with lung problems, clutching a just-distributed paper giving her a number to call if she finds a land mine. “We have no power and it’s hard for me to collect firewood.”


The first Russian soldiers who set up in the village, turning the sawmill into their base and launching rocket attacks at Ukrainian troops in the next town, had at first not harassed the residents, she said. When they shot pigs on an abandoned farm, they sometimes let residents butcher some of the meat.

But as the occupation ground on, with the Russians rotating out every month, the troops became more aggressive. One of them asked to borrow Kozinska’s phone.

“I gave it to him so he could call his mother, but he took my SIM card,” she said.


One of the medics treated Halyna Noskova’s back after she was hit by mortar shrapnel in her front yard in June. Her 87-year mother pulled out the metal shard. “It was still hot,” she said. The Russian bandaged her up.


“They helped me, but I’m glad we are liberated,” said Noskova, 66.


The residents, all of whom are Russian speaking in this region adjacent to the Russian border, described treatment generally more humane than that experienced by occupied communities farther to the west. The discovery of more than 450 bodies in Bucha, near Kyiv — many showing signs of torture — set off international outrage over atrocities.


“They were not monsters, they were kids,” said Matvienko, who once asked Russian troops to move the tank they parked in front of her house. “I asked what they wanted from us and they said, ‘We can either be here or we can be in jail.’ ”


Others told the villagers they weren’t there to fight Ukraine, but to “protect us from America.”

The Russians’ biggest rule for residents was to get inside by 6 p.m. and stay there, quiet and in the dark, several said. Violating that order could be fatal, as two men on the street learned early on. The friends were drinking and had a light on, said Maria Grygorova, who lives in the attached house next door. The next morning she found them on the floor.


“Konstiantyn had two bullet holes in his head,” she said.


She and two friends buried them in the side yard. The same two friends dug them up Sunday, with Ukrainian war crimes investigators looking on.


The team from Kharkiv collected two other bodies during their visit, including a security guard whose remains have been rotting on the floor of a gravel elevator at an asphalt plant for months, even as the Russians used it as a sniper tower. One investigator vomited over a guardrail repeatedly as officers collected the remains.


“We’re here looking into war crimes,” said Serhii Bolvinov, chief investigator of the Kharkiv Regional Police, as his crew waited on demining techs to clear one area of explosives before they could recover some of the bodies.

The residents were scared of the Russians, several village residents said. But they almost pitied them in their scramble to escape the recent Ukrainian onslaught.


Half of the soldiers fled in their vehicles in the first hours of the offensive, they said. Those stranded grew desperate. Some residents overheard their radio pleas to unit commanders for someone to come get them.


“They said, ‘You’re on your own,’ ” Matvienko recounted. “They came into our houses to take clothes so the drones wouldn’t see them in uniforms. They took our bicycles. Two of them pointed guns at my ex-husband until he handed them his car keys.”

Buoyant Ukrainian officials said they would no longer negotiate a peace deal that would let Russia keep an occupying presence in any territory, even in Crimea and part of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by Russia or Russian-backed separatists for years.


“The point of no return has passed,” Reznikov, the defense minister, said at the Yalta European Strategy summit in Kyiv on Saturday.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday seemed to backtrack on his previous assertion that the time wasn’t right for peace negotiations, as Russia was preparing to stage a round of sham referendums meant to annex occupied territories.


“We are not against the talks; we are not refusing the talks,” Lavrov said on the state TV program, “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin.” Rather, “Those who refuse should understand that the longer they delay this process, the more difficult it will be to negotiate.”

MSN