Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Fuck Erdogan

"Fuck the EU"

A certain someone.

Originally Posted by pickel

Vetoing an applicant would not be considered a material breach though. It is their right. A deal will be made.

The article explains what could constitute a material breach in more detail.

Aiding and abetting a cancer-stricken madman with a death wish might fall into this category.

Russia has lost ‘a third of ground forces’ in Ukraine attack


London/Kyiv: Russia has probably lost around a third of the ground forces it deployed to Ukraine and its offensive in the Donbas region “has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule”, British military intelligence said.


“Despite small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month whilst sustaining consistently high levels of attrition,” the British defence ministry said on Twitter.

“Russia has now likely suffered losses of one third of the ground combat force it committed in February.”


It said Russia was unlikely to dramatically accelerate its rate of advance over the next 30 days.

MORE Russia-Ukraine war: Ukraine wages counter offensive against Russian forces in east

Russia guilty of food, energy crisis, but sanctions not to affect food exports to developing countries - G7 statement

Sanctions against Russia will not affect Russian exports of agricultural resources to developing countries, and Ukraine will continue to receive assistance in the "production, transportation, processing of food," the G7 foreign ministers said in a statement on Saturday.


"We underscore that our sanctions and export controls against Russia do not and will not target essential exports of food and agricultural inputs to developing countries and to this end include measures to avoid any negative consequences for the production and distribution of food," the statement said.


It also emphasizes that Russia's war against Ukraine "has given rise to one of the most serious food and energy crises in recent history, which now threatens the most vulnerable populations around the world."


"We reaffirm our commitment to protect the most vulnerable countries and people suffering from Russia’s war against Ukraine and its global repercussions," the G7 foreign ministers said.


In addition, they promise to help Ukraine "continue the production, transportation, processing of food." Also, the authors of the document intend to assist Kyiv in the issue of exporting agricultural products.


Russia guilty of food, energy crisis, but sanctions not to affect food exports to developing countries - G7 statement

A gathering storm of renewed energy price-spikes, surging food costs and corresponding social and economic dangers is focusing the minds of Brussels officials who worry of multiple shocks cascading through the European Union from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Viewed from the Berlaymont headquarters and nearby buildings that house the European Commission in the Belgian capital, the conflict raging just over the bloc’s frontier presents a unique combination of threats looming large for the second half of the year.

A common assumption of how that could transpire is first as a summer of worry, then a winter of woe. Concerns focus on how energy rationing and a worsening cost-of-living squeeze may test voters whose patience is already thin, and on the vulnerability of Germany’s industrial machine to shutdowns if gas supplies stop.

The officials from across the EU bureaucracy who spoke to Bloomberg for this story, often on condition of anonymity, represent a generation of policy practitioners attuned to crises from the region’s sovereign-debt turmoil to Brexit and the pandemic, giving them the perspective to judge this one isn’t yet existential.

Even so, the security realignment gripping Europe -- inflicting new pressure on public finances -- and the intensifying energy crunch is unfamiliar ground whose full consequences, according to two insiders, haven’t sunk in among decision makers and advisers pivoting from two years of the Covid-19 emergency.

An initial crystallization of views on the economy emerged on Monday, as the commission cut its forecast for growth this year and next.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“The impact of the war in Ukraine could still be significantly bigger than either markets or the ECB expect and there remains scope for escalation. Severe energy disruption could easily tip the eurozone into recession.”
--Jamie Rush, David Powell and Maeva Cousin. For full report, click here

That will be followed this week by EU measures to counter the energy crunch. Later this month, a new judgment on national fiscal policies is expected to lead to a prolongation of the suspension of limits on deficits that the bloc agreed when the pandemic struck.
Among the dangers commission officials see looming, the potential of further destabilization in the market for foodstuffs has been shared between institutions. Officials worry Russian President Vladimir Putin might weaponize supplies of agri-food products, fertilizers and energy exports to inflict economic pain on the bloc.

Associated is the possibility that the coming winter might be more severe than the relatively mild one just passed. That would stoke gas demand just as Russia turns the screws, driving competition for alternative sources while potentially mobilizing discontent, particularly in countries dependent on energy imports such as Bulgaria.

Meanwhile officials are also cognizant of an influx of Ukrainian refugees now totaling more than 5 million, a tally dwarfing the refugee crisis in 2015-2016 and one causing strain especially in neighboring countries.

“We are fully aware of the social pressure,” Maros Sefcovic, the commission’s vice president for interinstitutional relations and foresight, told Bloomberg. “National governments have their hands full because of high inflation, energy prices, the huge wave of refugees. And all this brings higher costs of living.”

Against that backdrop, officials judge the multiple economic policy responses being deployed as hard to calibrate.

On the one hand, to combat inflation, the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates in July, maybe moving above zero later this year. Such tightening could bear down on growth and possibly further squeeze indebted families.

The ECB faces a “very complicated dilemma,” Governing Council member Olli Rehn, a former EU commissioner for economic affairs, told reporters in Salzburg earlier this month. “We are facing a very challenging economic environment.”

Meanwhile at national level, the level of budgetary support is mixed. Some pandemic-era fiscal stimulus is filtering through, and governments are offering varying support to insulate families and businesses from the energy shock. New military spending is a competing priority too.

At the EU level, officials have greater license than before to offer help, with full coffers of funds and no austerity dogma constraining them as in prior crises.

But their 2 trillion euros ($2.1 trillion) of funds are largely already committed to farmers, infrastructure projects, national recovery plans and a growing list of new priorities ranging from energy independence to joint defense projects.

The commission has granted flexibility to countries to offer subsidies to companies in the aftermath of the invasion, and is discussing how to redirect spending to energy independence and other critical areas. That could include reprogramming some of the 220 billion euros remaining in their Recovery Fund.

The energy package due this week may include measures to address the increasing household costs and energy poverty.
Meanwhile the commission’s bleaker economic view on Monday showed a major cut in its growth forecast for this year from 4% to 2.7%. A severe scenario of a Russian gas shutoff would shave expansion down to only 0.2%, the outlook shows.

Officials worry how the wider consequences of weaker growth could influence voters, cognizant of how so-called “yellow vest” protests impacted the first term of French President Emmanuel Macron, who faces parliamentary elections in June.

Italy and Spain, the weakest among Europe’s largest economies, also have national ballots next year.

EU Braces for Storm as Ukraine Fallout Cascades in Economy

The war exacerbates the post pandemic world, but the west remains striponger in real GDP terms than the train crash that disrupts Russian intentions.

Puti may be sick, but he is now required to win with one hand tied behind his back. If Putin weilded real power, this war would be over now. Those in authority have removed the options Putin needs to try and end it.

If Putin had his way, Russia would be crippled militarily and politically. A few senior hoods have told him to wind his neck in, and use what he has left. How else can his tactical withdrawal be explained?

striponger

Love it!! TD word of the month.

Originally Posted by sabang

A total of 53 injured servicemen were evacuated to a hospital in Novoazovsk, east of Mariupol, on Monday and a further 211 were taken to another point, Ukraine's deputy defence minister said.

Reuters saw five buses carrying troops from Azovstal arrive in Novoazovsk late on Monday. Some of the evacuated troops were wounded and carried out of the buses on stretchers. Some 600 troops were believed to have been inside the steel plant.

Soooooooooooo happy about this news (seriously) ... I though those guys were destined to die.

Former Russian colonel criticizes the country's invasion of Ukraine on state television


In rare public criticism of the conduct of Russia's military operations in Ukraine, a former senior Russian officer has warned on state television that the situation will get worse.


"Let's not drink 'information tranquilizers,' because sometimes information is spread about some moral or psychological breakdown of Ukraine's armed forces, as if they are nearing a crisis of morale or a fracture," retired Col. Mikhail Khodarenok said on Monday’s edition of Rossiya One’s 60 Minutes show. "None of this is close to reality."
Despite pushback from the show’s presenter, Khodarenok said that Ukraine could arm one million people.


"Considering that European aid will come into full effect and one million armed Ukrainian soldiers can join the fight, we need to see this reality of the near future, and we need to consider that in our operational and strategic calculations. The situation for us will frankly get worse," he said.
Khodarenok, a regular commentator in Russian media, also commented on Russia's broader isolation.


"Let's look at this situation as a whole from our overall strategic position," he said. "Let’s not swing missiles in Finland's direction – this just looks ridiculous. The biggest problem with our military and political situation is that we are in total geopolitical isolation. And the whole world is against us — even if we don’t want to admit it."


Khodarenok warned before the invasion started that it would be more difficult than many anticipated to wage war in Ukraine.


In an article in February, he said, "the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic towards Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine."


Expert claims that Russian forces will defeat Ukraine in a short period of time "have no serious grounds," he had said.

Former Russian colonel criticizes the country'''s invasion of Ukraine on state television

Russian Defense Spending Surges to $300M Per Day Amid Ukraine War


Russia spent more than $300 million per day on defense last month as its invasion of Ukraine continued to drag on, according to Finance Ministry data, more than doubling its pre-war defense spending.


Defense spending has increased every month since President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine in late February as Russia’s Armed Forces failed to secure a quick victory and settled for a strategy of capturing eastern territories.


If Russia’s defense spending in February totaled 369 billion rubles ($5.4 billion), March saw an uptick to 450 billion rubles ($6.6 billion), according to the ministry data first reported by The Moscow Times’ Russian service.

April was by far the most expensive month with 628 billion rubles ($9.2 billion) spent on defense.


That breaks down to about 21 billion rubles, or $308 million, per day.

Russia’s defense spending in April was more than double that of the pre-war period, with 233.7 billion rubles ($3.4 billion) spent in January 2022. In April 2021, defense spending totaled 275 billion rubles.


Between January and the end of April 2022, 1.681 trillion rubles ($24.6 billion) of the Russian budget was allocated toward military expenditures.


That figure is triple the amount spent on education, more than double the amount spent on health and 10 times the amount spent on environmental conservation and management.


Russian Defense Spending Surges to $300M Per Day Amid Ukraine War - The Moscow Times

Attacks by Russian commando forces in the centre of Kharkiv were meant to lead to the capture of the city and pave the way for Vladimir Putin’s dismemberment of Ukraine.It was expected that the Kremlin would seek to take over the country’s second-biggest city, which lies just 30 miles from the Russian border with 74 per cent of its 1.4 million inhabitants Russian-speaking, and supposedly with divided loyalties.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, predicted before the war began that the city would be seized under the pretext of “protecting” these people. And in 2014, pro-Moscow leader Viktor Yanukovych briefly planned to set up a base in Kharkiv after fleeing Kyiv following the Maidan protests. The city’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, even acknowledged that “Kharkiv has always been considered more or less loyal to Russia”.

But 82 days after the 24 February invasion, Russian forces have been driven away from the city, changing the course of the invasion. It is one of the tragic ironies of Mr Putin’s “war of liberation” that two largely Russian-speaking cities, Mariupol and Kharkiv, have taken the worst pounding. And while Mariupol is likely to fall now that the last stand of Ukrainian forces at the Azovstal steelworks are being evacuated, what happened at Kharkiv is seen as a major strategic and symbolic blow for the Kremlin.

On Monday, Ukrainian forces reached the Russian border, where they sent a video of themselves gathered around a border post in the national blue and yellow colours telling President Zelensky: “We are here! We are at the border!”

And US officials have declared that Ukraine has “won the Battle of Kharkiv”. What is now unfolding in the city, said Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, adds to the growing belief that “Ukraine can win this war”. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the British military, believes Ukraine’s independence is now guaranteed.

But some in the Ukrainian security forces caution against overconfidence. They have said Kharkiv and surrounding areas are still experiencing shelling, and lives are still being lost. There are also reports of Russian troop build-ups across the border in Belgograd. Some of those I met in Kharkiv during the long siege told me what had gone right and wrong during the campaign and what may follow.

Flawed intelligence

Shortcomings in Russian operations were exposed in the intial attacks into the city, on consecutive days, at the start of the war.

The first was by paratroopers flying in on helicopters. They came under heavy fire and were eventually forced to withdraw, taking the wounded, leaving dead bodies and losing at least one of aircraft.

The second, by a commando force of marines and Chechens, had been sent to take officials at the City Hall captive. But they arrived to find the building empty, and were themselves were caught in an ambush. The Russians retreated under fire, taking casualties on the way, before holing up in a school. A relief column was sent to rescue them, but was forced back, most of the troops at the school were killed or captured.

“What we discovered was that the intelligence the Russians had been given was faulty,” recalls Oleg Posohov, master sergeant of the volunteer Cossack Battalion, the 226th who took part in the fight on the day. “Those we captured said their orders were to grab officials, which had become standard Russian practice in this war, but they have been working from other locations as soon as the bombing began.

“We chased them and they ended up at the school. They really had no way out of there. There was another attack by helicopters, the helicopters came in with their guns firing. They landed and tried to take over buildings, it was a struggle, but we drove them off.”

Flawed intelligence has been consistent in this war. Before hostilities began, the British government announced that Yevhen Murayev, a former Ukrainian MP, had been picked by the Kremlin to be the leader of a puppet regime following an invasion. London got the “intelligence” on this from Washington.

The suggestion was met with widespread scepticism in Ukraine. As Mr Murayev delighted in pointing out, he was under sanctions from the Russian government after falling out with Viktor Medvedchuk, a businessman and politician close to Moscow, and whose daughter’s godfather is Mr Putin. Mr Medvechuk is currently under arrest in Ukraine.

“There’s evidence that some people were making a lot of money by selling information. They were telling people what they wanted to hear. That’s one of the reasons we think the Russians thought they had a lot of support in Ukraine”, said Colonel Oleg Rozghov, an intelligence officer. “There were also infiltrators giving information on military positions, we rounded them up pretty quickly, we are still doing that.”

There is also some circumstantial evidence that Russian intelligence agencies may have been competing against each other in backing pro-Moscow factions, claimed Captain Aleksandr Osadchy of the Cossack battalion. “We see the changes Putin is carrying out currently in the intelligence agencies running their Ukraine operation. That kind of rivalry helps us,” he said.

Relentless bombardment

After the failure of attempted surgical strikes, the Russians sent heavy armour into the city on 27 February. But again they were pushed back, with Javelin rocket systems provided by the US and NLAWs from the UK proving highly effective in close-quarter combat, according to Ukrainians who claimed six Russian tanks were destroyed in 24 hours. Charred remains of tanks and personnel carriers remain dotted around the city as a reminder of the strife.

There was another airborne assault on 2 March, when Russian paratroopers shelled buildings including the military hospital. But they were forced out having failed to hold ground; 21 people were killed and another 110 wounded on that day.

Having failed to make inroads, Russians began missile strikes, killing a dozen more civilians. Emergency services reported that 87 homes were destroyed, along with an electricity substation, cutting off power to much of the city.

Valentina Panchenka shuddered as she remembered the bombing. The 46-year-old teacher lived with her two sons and a daughter in Saltivka, which was to take a relentless hammering in the weeks to come.

“Everything shook when the rocket hit our buildings,” she said. “I thought the floor would collapse and we would just sink four floors. I could hear people screaming; the children were crying. I just gathered them and rushed out, and all the time rockets were hitting the buildings. One lady died and quite a few were wounded in our block. I saw one man with both his legs cut off.”

Ms Panchenka and her family managed to get to the Heroiv Pratsi metro station that became her home for the next nine weeks. Over time, a routine was established there. A clinic was set up, food was provided by welfare groups and religious organisations, and there were online lessons for children. There were even makeshift beauty parlours. With trains no longer running, tracks were used by those seeking shelter to walk between stations.

“It was still very frightening; we could hear the explosions every day, even underground. An old lady who went out to queue for food was killed when a supermarket got bombed,” said Oksana Kovaleva, who had sought refuge with her four children. Her husband, Anton, had joined the army.

Corruption and inefficiency

Captain Osadchy paused as he recalled the high number of civilian casualties, and spoke quietly of his mother’s death. Maria Osadchy, 85, was killed during the shelling of the village of Kamianka, at the home where her family had lived for generations. “She was a very determined woman and she wouldn’t change her mind. Like so many people of that generation, she had a tough life; it is such a pity it ended so sadly, so unnecessarily”, he said.

For the captain and his troops, the main aim was to keep defending Kharkiv while other forces were readied for a counteroffensive. But the death toll in the city continued to climb, with hundreds reportedly killed there by the end of the first month of the war.

At the underground headquarters of one of the busiest Ukrainian units in Kharkiv, soldiers hurriedly ate lunch before a mission behind enemy lines. Their commander, Oleg Supareka, had experience serving with Soviet forces, as he was deployed in the first Nagorno-Karabakh war in the Nineties.

“Judging by their poor performance in this war, not a lot has changed – there is a lot of corruption and inefficiency,” he said. “I maintained contact in the Russian military for a while, and they spent more time on ceremonial duties than on fighting practice and that shows in this war.”

Across the road, a building lies partly demolished by missiles. “That was meant to be us,” he said. “They have been trying for a while to hit our position; they are getting closer, we may have to move.” But even so, Russians have had some successes in hitting military targets, including two missile hits on the headquarters of the city’s territorial defence forces.

‘Such a great feeling’

Ukrainians also proved able to carry out targeted hits, including on Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, one of the highest-ranking Russian officers to be declared dead in the war. A Ukrainian officer said the general’s killing by a sniper took place with help from western intelligence. He later contacted me to insist he had made a mistake and there was no western involvement in the killing.

The tide really began turning at the end of April. The Russians had begun planning an assault on the Donbas now that Mr Putin’s total conquest of Ukraine was no longer feasible. Moscow maintained that taking the eastern territory had always been the real aim of the campaign.

On 29 April, the village of Ruska Lozova was retaken. On 6 May, Ukrainians launched a broad counteroffensive, recapturing Tsyrkuny, Peremoha and Cherkasi Tyshky.

“The main gain was that we pushed most of their artillery out of the range of hitting Kharkiv; that was a big relief,” said Major Nicolai Pavluyk, who serves in a volunteer brigade. “It was also such a great feeling to be on the front foot and making them retreat, getting back territory. In the past, we were blowing bridges to slow the Russians, now they are blowing bridges to try and delay us.”

“Expectations are very high now,” Captain Osadchy said. “If talks are held then Mr Zelensky needs to be careful what he offers the Russians, I don’t think the army will accept concessions, I don’t think the people will accept concessions.”

Destroyed legacy

With Kharkiv relatively safe for now, some people are raising questions about why the city was not prepared earlier. There are accusations that routes were left unsecured, and corners cut. Inquiries need to be held, some said.

“People have lost members of their families, they have risked their lives, there are questions, they’ll want answers”, said Captain Osadchy.

Fighting continues in Izium, a nearby town that Russians want to take for the Donbas offensive. Many villages that have been under Russian occupation have been smashed in the ensuing combat. There have even been reports of executions and sexual abuse in these areas.

As well as the loss of life, the scale of destruction in Kharkiv is huge. But Kharkiv is standing and its people are, for now at least, united. Kiril Semenov, a Russian speaker, said on a previous visit that he would “never take up arms against our Russian brothers”. Instead, the 48-year-old engineer became a volunteer, ferrying supplies and food to Ukrainian forces. “Putin bombed us into realising how Ukrainian we are,” he said.

The Battle for Kharkiv: How Ukraine reclaimed its second city | The Independent

Originally Posted by misskit

Russian Defense Spending Surges to $300M Per Day Amid Ukraine War

This is going to be 1991 all over again. No way they can afford that.

“Russian Defense Spending Surges to $300M Per Day Amid Ukraine War“

A bit of a misnomer to call the increased spending ‘defence’.

Strange how Kharkiv has been 'reclaimed' when it was never in fact taken. This is the current state of play (sorry, I don't do TikTok)-




Ukraine-Russia maps: Where is the invasion taking place? (msn.com)

^ pfffttt You call that a map?

Compare the pair.

Significant Russian loss of ground around the City. April 18 -> May 17

https://www.understandingwar.org/sit...8%2C2022_0.png

https://www.understandingwar.org/sit...017%2C2022.png


Immediate items to watch

Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum. It is unclear if they will succeed.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17 | Institute for the Study of War

Originally Posted by sabang

Strange how Kharkiv has been 'reclaimed' when it was never in fact taken.

You are pushing the Kremlin talking points as usual. Russia tried from the outset of this war to take Kharkiv. They are now about two suffer the second major defeat of this war.

• Russian soldier on trial asks victim's widow to forgive him

A Russian soldier facing the first war crimes trial since the start of the war in Ukraine testified Thursday that he shot a civilian on orders from two officers and pleaded for his victim's widow to forgive him.

Sgt. Vadim Shishimarin told the court that the officer insisted that the Ukrainian man, who was speaking on his cellphone, could pinpoint their location to the Ukrainian forces.

The 21-year-old sergeant could get life in prison if convicted of shooting the Ukrainian man in the head through an open car window in a village in the northeastern Sumy region on Feb. 28, four days into the Russian invasion.

Looking subdued, Shishimarin said he at first disobeyed his immediate commanding officer's order to shoot the unarmed civilian but had no other choice but to follow the order when it was repeated forcefully by another officer.

Shishimarin pleaded guilty to the charges during Wednesday's hearing.

On Thursday, he asked the victim’s widow, who also appeared in the trial, to forgive him for what he did.

“I realize that you can't forgive me, but I'm pleading you for forgiveness,” Shishimarin said.

The woman, Kateryna Shelipova, said her 62-year-old husband, Oleksandr Shelipov, got out to check what was going on when gunshots rang just outside their home. When the shooting ceased shortly after, she walked out and found her husband shot dead just outside their home.

“He was all to me. He was my defender,” she said.

Shelipova told the court that Shishimarin deserves a life sentence for killing her husband but added that she wouldn’t mind if he’s exchanged as part of a possible prisoner swap with Russia for the surrendered Ukrainian defenders of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.

The prosecutor asked for a life sentence for Shishimarin and the trial adjourned until Friday.

Shishimarin, a captured member of a Russian tank unit, is being prosecuted under a section of the Ukrainian criminal code that addresses the laws and customs of war.

Ukrainian Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova previously said her office was readying war crimes cases against 41 Russian soldiers for offenses that included bombing civilian infrastructure, killing civilians, rape and looting. It was not immediately clear how many of the suspects are in Ukrainian hands and how many would be tried in absentia.

As the inaugural war-crimes case in Ukraine, Shishimarin’s prosecution was being watched closely. Investigators have been collecting evidence of possible war crimes to bring before the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

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• Biden says Finland and Sweden have 'full, total, complete backing' of US as they seek to join NATO

President Joe Biden on Thursday welcomed the leaders of Finland and Sweden to the White House and said both countries have the "full, total, complete backing" of the US after the two nations submitted their formal applications to become NATO members.

"Today, I am proud to welcome and offer the strong support of the United States for the applications of two great democracies and two close, highly capable partners to join the strongest, most powerful defensive alliance in the history of the world," Biden said while standing alongside Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.

The US President said, "The bottom line is simple, quite straightforward: Finland and Sweden make NATO stronger. Not just because of their capacity but because of their strong, strong democracies."

Sweden and Finland's bids to join NATO come in response to Russia's war on Ukraine, which sparked security concerns across the region. The historically neutral nations' bids to join the alliance mark a dramatic evolution in European security and geopolitics, and the moves have been met with resistance from Russia and Turkey, a NATO member.

"Let me be clear: New members joining NATO is not a threat to any nation. It never has been. NATO's purpose is to defend against aggression. That's its purpose, to defend," Biden said.

The President argued Russia's war on Ukraine has made the military alliance "stronger" and "more united," and said, "Today, there is no question, NATO is relevant. It is effective. And it is more needed now than ever."

Biden said his administration was submitting reports on NATO accession for both Finland and Sweden so the Senate "can efficiently and quickly move on advising and consenting to the treaty."

He said Finland and Sweden requesting to join NATO is a "victory for democracy in action," and said both nations meet all the requirements to join the alliance.

Both Finland and Sweden already meet many of the requirements to be a NATO member, which include having a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; treating minority populations fairly; committing to resolve conflicts peacefully; the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and committing to democratic civil-military relations and institutions.

_________________

• Senate passes $40 billion Ukraine aid package

The Senate voted 86-11 Thursday to approve a $40 billion Ukraine aid package that would replenish U.S. stockpiles of weapons transferred to Ukraine and provide billions of dollars to help the Ukrainian government continue operating and for humanitarian assistance.

President Biden is expected to sign the legislation, which exceeds his $33 billion request to Congress, immediately. The House passed the legislation overwhelmingly earlier this month in a 368-57 vote.

Biden on Thursday applauded Congress “for sending a clear bipartisan message to the world that the people of the United States stand together with the brave people of Ukraine.”

“The resources that I requested will allow is to send even more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, replenish our own stockpile, and support U.S. troops stationed on NATO territory,” he said in a statement.

Biden announced that he would immediately provide another security package of artillery, radars and other equipment.

Democratic and Republican leaders hailed the vote as a crucial step to halting Russian aggression and firmly within U.S. national security interests.

“This is a large package, and it will meet the large needs of the Ukrainian people as they fight for their survival. As President Zelensky has said, the Ukrainians are caught up in a fight for democracy, the very democracy we love itself,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the Senate floor before the vote, referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“It’s a fight we should not and cannot turn away from,” he warned.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) also hailed the vote and pushed back on fellow Republicans, such as former President Trump, who have complained about the cost of the package.

“The future of America’s security and core strategic interests will be shaped by the outcome of this fight. Anyone concerned about the cost of supporting a Ukrainian victory should consider the much larger cost should Ukraine lose,” he said.

The legislation would authorize the transfer of American weapons and equipment to Ukraine and provide $9 billion to replenish depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles. It would also provide nearly $9 billion for continued operations of the Ukrainian government and $4 billion in international disaster assistance.

Eleven Republican senators led by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) voted against the measure.

Republican Sens. Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.), John Boozman (Ark.), Mike Braun (Ind.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Bill Hagerty (Tenn.), Josh Hawley (Mo.), Mike Lee (Utah), Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.), Roger Marshall (Kan.), and Tommy Tuberville (Ala.) also voted against the measure.

_________________

• US announces $215 million in new food aid to Ukraine

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that Ukraine will be getting $215 million in emergency food assistance, with more aid expected in the future.

During a United Nations meeting on global food security, Blinken noted the “greatest global food security crisis of our time” caused by factors such as the pandemic and climate, adding that the war in Ukraine has exacerbated the issue.

“Today, given the urgency of the crisis, we’re announcing another $215 million in new emergency food assistance. And we’ll do much more,” Blinken said.

“We expect our Congress very soon to approve approximately $5.5 billion in additional funding for humanitarian assistance and food security,” he added.

The $5 billion for food assistance to Ukraine comes from the $40 billion Ukraine aid bill that passed the House last week.

The aid package to Ukraine advanced in the Senate on Monday, with a vote on final passage expected later this week, before it goes to President Biden’s desk.

The World Bank said Wednesday it will give $30 billion to combat food insecurity around the globe.

The Russia-Ukraine war has impacted food supply in certain regions of the world, as exports from Ukraine have stalled during the conflict.

Ukraine exported more than $6 billion worth of agricultural products in 2020 to the European Union alone.

A United Nations official said earlier this month that there is reason to believe Russian is stealing Ukraine’s grain supply during the war.

“There is anecdotal evidence that Russian troops have destroyed storage capacity and that they are looting the storage grain that is available,” United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization senior official Josef Schmidhuber said. “But that’s all anecdotal evidence. There is no statistical data for that.”

Russian Debt Default Odds Jump to 90% As US Seen Blocking Bond Payments

Russian debt default odds jump to 90% while Yellen confirms a report the US will likely block bond payments

A spike in the cost of insurance on Russian debt implied a 90% probability Wednesday the Kremlin will miss bond payments within a year.

That's up from 77% on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported, citing ICE Data Services, which tracks insurance on debt meant to protect investors.

The surge comes as investors contemplate the likelihood of the Biden administration blocking bond payments from Russia to US holders, putting Moscow closer to its first sovereign debt default in nearly 100 years.

The increased default risk is tied to a sanctions waiver from the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Asset Control that has thus far allowed the Kremlin to pay off dollar-debt obligations.

But on Tuesday, sources told Bloomberg that the Treasury Department is expected to let the waiver lapse once it expires on May 25.

"I think it's reasonably likely that the license will be allowed to expire. There has not been a final decision on that, but I think it's unlikely that it would continue," US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters Wednesday in Germany before meeting G7 finance ministers.

She added that Russia is already cut off from global capital, and the country missing its debt obligations doesn't really represent "a significant change in Russia's situation."

The Kremlin has struggled to navigate payment channels essentially blocked by Western sanctions, making it difficult for money to reach bond holders.

Still, Russia has until now been able to use US banks as key conduits for delivering sovereign bond payments, although the country nearly missed a deadline earlier this month.

But an end to the Treasury Department's waiver next week would come just before the Kremlin's next payment is due on May 27 for bonds that mature in 2026 and 2036.

Russia can not fund this war. They are done. Stick a fork in them.

It is not by definition a Default if another party blocks any means of payment. That is just a boycott.

Originally Posted by sabang

It is not by definition a Default if another party blocks any means of payment. That is just a boycott.

Paying debts in Ukrainian blood is equally unacceptable!