Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by David48atTD

I wonder what military target was in the village of Solokhi?

Have the Russians had valid military targets when they flattened towns in cities in Ukraine? The Russians are in retreat in that area, so hard to say what is going on.

Let's not forget the Russians are big fans of fake attacks to justify their war crimes. And congenital liars.

They would think nothing of killing their own people to be able to say "Look, they're doing it too!"

Kyiv Mayor Klitschko Says He Can’t Guarantee The Safety Of Returning Residents


The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, tells CNN’s Erin Burnett that he is worried about the possibility that the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, might use a tactical nuclear weapon on Kyiv.

“Safety right now is the number one priority … Yes of course we are worried, and we hope that our warriors will protect us, but the risk remains, and without our partners, without the United States and the European countries, we cannot survive,” Klitschko stated.


Likewise, he said there is no doubt that the Ukrainian capital is still Russia’s “main target.”


“AS MAYOR OF KYIV, I TELL ANYONE COMING BACK TO KYIV, SORRY, IT’S YOUR PERSONAL RISK, BUT WE CANNOT GUARANTEE ANYTHING … SO LONG AS THERE IS WAR IN UKRAINE, WE CANNOT GUARANTEE ANYTHING.”


Russian attacks could happen at any moment, Vitali Klitschko said.


Klitschko stated war “changes everyone’s lives” and that his fingers are crossed for a quick end to this “senseless war.”

Kyiv Mayor Klitschko Says He Can't Guarantee The Safety Of Returning Residents

Russia warns the West over risk of ‘direct and open’ conflict




Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, has warned the West that military assistance for Ukraine risks creating a conflict between Russia and NATO.


Medvedev, who is now deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, said such a conflict could easily escalate.


“The pumping of Ukraine by NATO countries with weapons, the training of its troops to use Western equipment, the dispatch of mercenaries and the conduct of exercises by the countries of the alliance near our borders increase the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia instead of their ‘war by proxy,’” Medvedev claimed in a Telegram post.


“Such a conflict always has the risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war,” Medvedev said. “This will be a catastrophic scenario for everyone.”


Medvedev’s comments come as tensions between Russia and NATO are likely to rise even further after Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced that the country should apply to join NATO “without delay.” Sweden could also be set to announce its intention to apply to join the military alliance.

Live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

Finland Says It Will Apply to Join NATO, Doubling Length of Russia’s Border With the Bloc


One of the most surprising fallout effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the speed at which Sweden and Finland are now interested in joining NATO. The two Scandinavian nations had always expressed a more pacifist approach to the trans-Atlantic military alliance. “Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was,” Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin said after the invasion, which prompted a process to join NATO that is predicted to be formally announced Sunday. Sweden, which does not share a land border with Russia like Finland’s 810-mile frontier, also expressed concern. “When Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden’s security position changed fundamentally,” the Swedish government said at the time of the invasion. Finland had previously stayed out of NATO to avoid antagonizing Russia.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/finlan...=home?ref=home

Russian troops have been forced to retreat behind their own borders, Kyiv officials said, as Ukraine launched counter-attacks aimed at halting Moscow’s main advance in the east.

Ukrainian military officials said their units operating in the region around Kharkiv - the country’s second-largest city - and Izyum, to the south-east, had forced Russian troops to switch from attack to defence.

In their intelligence update, the officials said Russian units had sustained “significant losses” and were “withdrawn from Ukraine to the Belgorod region”, 25 miles inside Russia’s territory.

As Ukrainian troops advanced north towards the Russian border, they liberated four towns to the north and north-east of Kharkiv, the Ukrainian General Staff said.

In a report, the Institute of War, a US-based think-tank, cited a Russian source who claimed Ukrainian fighters had moved within six miles of the Russian border.

Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said: “The enemy switched to defence after an unsuccessful assault around Kharkiv. In the Kharkiv direction, the Ukrainian armed forces see some success and are liberating settlements.”

Counter-attack could signal new phase in war

The Ukrainian counter-attack in the north-west of the country could signal a new phase in the war, with resistance fighters attempting to starve Russia of troops and supplies in the eastern Donbas region.

By pushing back Russian troops who had occupied the outskirts of Kharkiv since the start of the invasion on February 24, Kyiv’s forces are moving into striking distance of key supply lines, fuelling Moscow’s offensives further south.

Neil Melvin, of the Royal United Services Institute, said: “Ukrainians are getting close to the Russian border. So all the gains that the Russians made in the early days in the north-east of Ukraine are increasingly slipping away.”

But as they were driven out of the Kharkiv region, Russians left a host of “deadly traps”, as well as murdered civilians and destroyed homes.

Oleg Synegubov, Kharkiv’s regional governor, said: “Thanks to the successful actions of the armed forces and the liberation of a number of settlements in Kharkiv, it is now relatively quiet."

“It is dangerous to return to the recently liberated settlements”, he added in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

“The enemy has completely mined everything, including schools, kindergartens and private homes.”

In his overnight address late on Tuesday, Volodomyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, praised the efforts by his fighters to push Russian troops away from Kharkiv.

“The occupiers are gradually being pushed away,” he said. “I am grateful to all our defenders who are holding the line and demonstrating truly superhuman strength to drive out the army of invaders.”

Ukraine also finds success in Izyum

Ukrainian fighters have also had success in Izyum, which lies 77 miles from Kharkiv in north Ukraine, and is considered vital to Russian chances of seizing control of the Donbas region.

“In Izyum direction, the enemy has also switched to defence and constraining actions,” Brig Gen Hromov said.

Controlling the Kharkiv and Izyum regions is considered of vital strategic importance to Moscow’s offensive in the Donbas.

The main highway from Belgorod, used as Russia’s main logistics hub in the war, runs directly through both areas.

A Ukrainian soldier involved in the liberations on the outskirts of Kharkiv said Kyiv’s forces would be able to make more progress if given more Western weapons.

The fighter, who goes by the name “Uncle Roma”, told DW TV: “The weapons are helping us a lot, especially the anti-tank one.

“I wish that we could get more of them. We use the weapons for specific targets and here you see the results. If we had more weapons, we would get more results.”

Buoyed on by recent successes, Kyiv has seemingly upgraded its ambitions to push Russia fully out of Ukraine.

Dmytro Kuleba, its foreign minister, said Ukraine could move to liberate Crimea if its forces can defeat Russia in the Donbas.

“In the first months of the war, the victory for us looked like withdrawal of Russian forces to the positions they occupied before February 24 and payment for inflicted damage,” he told the Financial Times.

“Now, if we are strong enough on the military front and we win the battle for Donbas, which will be crucial for the following dynamics of war, of course, the victory for us in this war will be the liberation of the rest of our territories.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ehind-borders/

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 11

Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City has forced Russian troops onto the defensive and necessitated reinforcement and replenishment efforts intended to prevent further Ukrainian advances towards the Russian border. Russian efforts along the Southern Axis and in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts remain similarly stalled, and Russian forces have not made any significant gains in the face of continued successful Ukrainian defenses.

MORE Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11 | Institute for the Study of War

^From the same source on May 9th.

Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian mobilization” and that members of the private military company Wagner Group “urgently” requested hundreds of thousands of additional troops to reinforce Russian efforts in Donbas. The official noted that Russia currently has 97 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in Ukraine, but that BTGs have been moving in and out of Ukraine to refit and resupply, suggesting that Russian troops continue to sustain substantial damage in combat. ISW has previously assessed that most Russian BTGs are heavily degraded and counting BTGs is not a useful metric of Russian combat power. The Main Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed that under-trained, ill-equipped Russian conscripts are still being sent into active combat despite the Kremlin denying this practice. A prisoner of war from the BARS-7 detachment of the Wagner Group claimed that a ”covert mobilization” is underway in Russian to send conscripts to clean damage caused by combat in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

Originally Posted by misskit

A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian mobilization”

They have to hold back some of the archaic soviet era equipment they have left to defend their own borders. They are getting hollowed out by the day and will lose this war of attrition.

Apologies if previously posted.

^



Russia lost an entire battalion when trying to cross a river in eastern Ukraine - Defence View

Its amazing that Russia are in such state where their focus is solely Putin's mad crusade they couldn't foresee the Ukrainian response, the effect on NATO cohesiveness and the reaction by other bordering countries viz NATO membership - except i fail to believe that. I think the Kremlin will have seen all this and as a sign of how power is centralised with Putin and his close circle they have been either unable to make him see these outcomes or are too afraid of raising it. Either way its a serious worry for NATO to have the second major nuclear power acting so irrationally.

A couple of Sabang and spittys mates helping to liberate the poor Ukrainians.

Russian President Vladimir Putin decreed on May 3 that no Russian entity will be allowed to make deals with those on the sanctions list, or even fulfil its obligations under existing deals.
The decree forbids the export of products and raw materials to people and entities on the sanctions list.
Putin said the decree was in response to the illegal actions of the US and its allies meant to deprive Russia and its citizens and legal entities of property rights or to restrict their property rights.
The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline passes through Russia, Belarus, Poland, and Germany. Russia supplies nearly 40% of Europe’s overall gas demand, and this route accounts for nearly 15% of the country’s westbound deliveries. The pipeline has been operating in reverse mode recently, sending gas from Germany to Poland after Warsaw refused to accept Moscow’s demand to pay in rubles.

FULL- https://www.rt.com/business/555379-russia-stops-gas-transit-poland/

Originally Posted by sabang

Moscow’s view on the accession of Ukraine into EU is now aligned to its position on the country joining NATO

Russia has altered its stance on Ukraine’s prospects of EU membership, Moscow's Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Dmitry Polyanskiy, has revealed. Such a goal now cannot be a part of any peace deal with Kiev, the diplomat told Unherd News in an interview on Thursday.

Previously, Moscow was not concerned about the prospects of Ukraine eventually joining the organisation, he indicated, but the position has since shifted.
Polyanskiy explained that the catalyst was Brussels' behavior since Russia launched its offensive, in February. Moscow feels that the EU has become completely aligned with the US-led NATO.

Funnily Russia doesnt get to tell other countries what they should join

He particularly pointed to a recent statement from the bloc's chief diplomat Josep Borrell, in which the Spanish-born official openly expressed a preference for a military solution to the present conflict.

“We were at this point not very worrying about the European Union, but the situation has changed after Mr. Borrell’s statement that ‘this war should be won on the battleground’ and after the fact that the European Union is the leader in deliveries of arms [to Ukraine]. I think that our position on the European Union now is more similar to NATO because we don’t see a big difference,” Polyanskiy stated.

The conflict has already escalated to the point that there’s little to no place for diplomacy left, he admitted. Polyanskiy blamed, what he described as, the lack of constructive dialogue, the inability of Kiev to keep its promises, and Western efforts to prolong the hostilities for the situation.

“At this point, frankly, I see no diplomatic possibilities given the position of Ukraine, given the fuelling of this conflict by the West. Being a diplomat, I have to acknowledge that there’s no way for diplomacy right now,” he insisted.

Of course russia has not fueled th conflict by invading Ukraine bombing their cities and killing women children and un armed civilians.

Polyanskiy refused to provide any estimates on for how long the conflict could go on. “I don’t have a crystal ball to predict such things,” he said.
Russia changes position on Ukraine’s EU membership bid — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union




Ruble named world’s best-performing currency

Bloomberg says the Russian currency topped 31 major peers in growth this year.

The Russian ruble has eclipsed 31 major currencies in growth since the start of 2022, becoming the globe’s best-performing currency, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

According to the publication, the ruble has strengthened against the US dollar by more than 11% since the beginning of the year. On the international currency market, the ruble exchange rate has shown even greater growth of about 12% so far.

https://www.rt.com/business/555354-ruble-named-worlds-best-performing-currency/

RT banned from most countries due to it being just a Putin propaganda tool.
The Rouble will not be able to be artificially propped up by the Russians forever. It's already cost them a fair bit. Eventually the economy will hit a wall. Its inability to trade with most of the west with a combined GDP of around 40 trillion cannot be made up by the others. The currency does not reflect the strength of the economy. Another two years and the Russian economy will struggle to be in the G20.

Given a pragmatic look at the recent additions to this thread, it seems that the tide is turning against Russia and Putin.

Unless individuals accept the total propaganda from all participants, the war will continue and Russia will be considerably weakened.

Time for Vlad to eat some humble pie, lash out, or undermine what’s left of his future. Right now, he still has choices. That will not be the case much longer.

Accept that there is disinformation on both sides, and read between the lines. This conflict has reached the stage where the things left unsaid behind the bravado, are more important than any claims to be winning the war. Those in positions of power and authority are now hedging their bets, being very careful what they do say, and what they don’t admit to.

Originally Posted by David48atTD

Russia threatens ‘retaliatory steps’ if Finland joins NATO

Isn't Puffy funny.

It's his fault they're joining it!

It's already cost them a fair bit.

If this were indeed the case, then why would they have riven the ruble up by 20% so far this year? Nope, it's because they have rejected the petrodollar and are pricing their gas exports in Rubles. Simple supply and demand.

one fooking screwed up system the yanks have

Senator Rand Paul single-handedly holds up $40bn US aid for Ukraine

Senator Rand Paul single-handedly holds up $40bn US aid for Ukraine
Democratic and Republican Senate leaders both supported package but Paul objected to scale of spending

Senator Rand Paul: ‘This is the second spending bill for Ukraine in two months. And this bill is three times larger than the first. Congress just wants to keep on spending, and spending.’

The top Democrat and Republican in the US Senate joined forces in a rare moment of unity on Thursday in an attempt to pass $40bn in aid for Ukraine, only to be stymied by a single Republican lawmaker: the Kentucky libertarian Rand Paul.

Faced with the prospect of an extended delay for the package that passed the House of Representatives on Tuesday, the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, and his Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell, sought to move forward on the aid package only to be blocked by Paul, a fiscal hawk who objects to the amount of spending proposed.

Avril Haines in Washington on Tuesday: ‘There are a lot of things that he would do in the context of escalation before he would get to nuclear weapons.’

The stalemate delayed passage of the measure into next week.

The Senate has scheduled an initial procedural vote on the bill for late Monday afternoon.

It was unclear whether that vote would then speed passage of the Ukraine aid. Alternatively, passage could come around the middle of next week if any senator wants to force a series of legislative steps before a final vote.

As the Ukraine aid bill became caught in the Senate’s procedural gears, Schumer pleaded for fast action: “The package is ready to go, the vast majority of senators on both sides of the aisle want it.”

He added: “If Senator Paul persists in his reckless demands … all he will accomplish is to single-handedly delay desperately needed Ukraine aid.”

But Paul was not moved.

more

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/12/us-ukraine-aid-rand-paul-senate

That bloke is an utter fucking prick.

Then again he gets elected by Kentuckians, which as we know are more than "family friendly"....

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

That bloke is an utter fucking prick.

He is indeed a pathetic little shit who always eventually knuckles under. He is spineless.

Snake Island saw some dramatic action last weekend, including a high-speed, low-level bombing run by Ukrainian jets and a series of strikes by Bayraktar TB2 drones which sank two patrol boats and a landing craft carrying a surface-to air missile system, then destroyed an Mi-8 helicopter as it was dropping troops on to the island. But for Russia, the biggest concern may have been a number on one of the Bayraktar video displays: a registration showing it was a brand new drone straight off the production line.

The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 is the most celebrated drone of the age. While the New Yorker’s headline Monday of The Turkish Drone That Changed the Nature of Warfare has set some eyeballs rolling, its previous success in Libya and Syria and most especially Nagorno-Karabakh, where it ripped through hundreds of Armenia’s Russian-supplied armored vehicles, suggested that the Bayraktar could be a key element of Ukraine’s defense. Many experts (myself included) were doubtful that the Bayraktar could prevail against Russian air superiority and integrated surface-to-air systems, but we were rapidly proved wrong – by Feb. 28, I was noting how Russia’s inability to stop Bayraktars signified larger problems with their military machine.

Certainly Russia seems to hate the Turkish-supplied drones and posts inflated claims of the number of Bayraktars shot down, even faking extra kills by re-arranging wreckage for new pictures.

But some Bayraktars are getting shot down, and Ukraine’s original fleet of an estimated 36 drones is steadily being depleted with at least seven losses according to Oryx’s definitive tally. Turkey has remained avowedly neutral in this conflict, being highly dependent on Russian gas and wheat, and has positioned itself as a mediator, and the Turkish government, unlike many other NATO members, is not supplying Ukraine with arms. Ankara has refused to comment on whether private arms sales were permitted, so it was assume that no more Bayraktars would be delivered. Hence proposals for the U.S. to supply Ukraine with MQ-9 Reapers or other drones to augment its fleet.

But an open source intelligence analyst with the Twitter handle @ameliaairheart noted an interesting feature of one of the Snake Island strikes: the Bayraktar video feed, which is normally sanitized to crop out digital identifying information, was left intact. This shows that the attack was carried out from Ground Control Station 13, operating a Bayraktar with the registration T253.

The analyst then matched this registration with open source flight data from Turkey, which showed that TB2 T253 carried out a test flight south of Baykar’s flight test facility near Keşan in Turkey on March 21, just six weeks ago.

“This strongly suggests that Ukraine is getting TB2s quickly off the production line,” they conclude.

Another analyst, @Intelassess, notes that a Bayraktar with registration T261 has also been spotted in Ukraine, and that T258-T262 went through testing together at Keşan. As the drones are normally supplied in batches of six, this suggests that Ukraine may have received at least two such batches since the start of the war. Others have tracked recent flights seemingly from the Baykar factory to Poland.

Of course the video data may be faked, or Ukraine may simply be tweaking the registration numbers displayed to confuse Russia about how may Bayraktars they have left.

Even before the war this was a sensitive topic for Turkey. In October, Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu asked Ukraine to stop mentioning Turkey in connection with drone imports: “If a country has purchased a weapon from us or another country, then that weapon cannot be labeled as Turkish or Russian or Ukrainian."

Since the war, the Turkish government has stressed that pre-war sales to Ukraine were a private deal and nothing to do with them.

“These are private companies and these drone purchases had been done before the war as well," stated a high-ranking official quoted by Reuters.

Until now we have had no indication that Turkey continued to supply Bayraktars to Ukraine. But if the new analysis is correct, then Baykar is supplying Ukraine with new drones as fast as they can make them, presumably with the tacit approval of the government.

President Zelensky has noted that Bayraktars are not decisive on their own and that missiles and artillery are also vital, but the drones provide an important capability when the Ukrainian air forces jets can only carry out a handful of sorties each day. If Ukraine really has received 12 or more, then they may now have more Bayraktars than when they started the conflict. Now they are setting ablaze oil storage depots across the border in Russia, making history by being the first armed drones to sink military vessels, helping sink Russia’s Black Sea flagship and destroying the air defense systems that are supposed to shoot them down.

It seems like Russia’s Bayraktar problem is only going to get worse.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidha...h=42891a9a685b