Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

KHERSON REGION, Ukraine — On the screen of a thermal imaging camera, the Russian armored personnel carrier disappeared in a silent puff of smoke.

“What a beautiful explosion,” said First Lt. Serhiy, a Ukrainian drone pilot who watched as his weapon buzzed into a Russian-controlled village and picked off the armored vehicle, a blast that was audible seconds later at his position about four miles away.

“We used to cheer, we used to shout, ‘Hurray!’ but we’re used to it now,” he said.

The war in Ukraine has been fought primarily through the air, with artillery, rockets, missiles and drones. And for months, Russia had the upper hand, able to lob munitions at Ukrainian cities, towns and military targets from positions well beyond the reach of Ukrainian weapons.

But in recent months, the tide has turned along the front lines in southern Ukraine. With powerful Western weapons and deadly homemade drones, Ukraine now has artillery superiority in the area, commanders and military analysts say.

Ukraine now has an edge in both range and in precision-guided rockets and artillery shells, a class of weapons largely lacking in Russia’s arsenal. Ukrainian soldiers are taking out armored vehicles worth millions of dollars with cheap homemade drones, as well as with more advanced drones and other weapons provided by the United States and allies.

The Russian military remains a formidable force, with cruise missiles, a sizable army and millions of rounds of artillery shells, albeit imprecise ones. It has just completed a mobilization effort that will add 300,000 troops to the battlefield, Russian commanders say, though many of those will be ill trained and ill equipped. And President Vladimir V. Putin has made clear his determination to win the war at almost any cost.

Still, there is no mistaking the shifting fortunes on the southern front.

Ukraine’s growing advantage in artillery, a stark contrast to fighting throughout the country over the summer when Russia pummeled Ukrainian positions with mortar and artillery fire, has allowed slow if costly progress in the south toward the strategic port city of Kherson, the only provincial capital that Russia managed to occupy after invading in February.

The new capabilities were on display in the predawn hours Saturday when Ukrainian drones hit a Russian vessel docked in the Black Sea Fleet’s home port of Sevastopol, deep in the occupied territory of Crimea, once thought an impregnable bastion.

The contrast with the battlefield over the summer could not be starker. In the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, Russia fired roughly 10 artillery rounds for each answering shell from Ukrainian batteries. In Kherson now, Ukrainian commanders say the sides are firing about equal numbers of shells, but Ukraine’s strikes are not only longer range but more precise because of the satellite-guided rockets and artillery rounds provided by the West.

“We can reach them and they cannot reach us,” said Maj. Oleksandr, the commander of an artillery battery on the Kherson front, who like others interviewed for this article gave only his first name for security reasons. “They don’t have these weapons.”

Falling rates of Russian fire also speak to ammunition shortages, he said. “There is an idea the Russian army is infinite, but it is a myth,” he said. “The intensity of fire has fallen by three times. It’s realistic to fight them.”

A main highway approaching Kherson city from the west has become a thoroughfare for Ukrainian artillery, with towed howitzers, truck-mounted howitzers and trucks laden with grad rockets rumbling by continually through the day.

American-provided M777 howitzers firing precision-guided shells and striking up to 20 miles behind Russian lines have forced the Russians to stage heavy equipment farther from the front.

Ukrainian drones spot infantry but fewer tanks or armored vehicles near the front line, said First Lt. Oleh, the commander of a unit flying reconnaissance drones. “We hear a lot of rumors they are abandoning the first lines of defense.”

This firepower has tipped the balance in the south, raising expectations that a long-anticipated assault on Kherson is drawing near — though a swirl of apparent misdirection from military leaders on both sides has clouded the picture.

The terrain around the city — table-flat steppe with thin tree lines and little cover, and crisscrossed by irrigation canals that can be used as trenches — favors its Russian defenders. And Ukrainian commanders and officials have been dropping hints of an impending attack since the spring, only to have the fighting drag on.

But the city lies on the west bank of the Dnipro River, making its defenders reliant on bridges to Russian territory on the eastern bank that now lie within easy range of Ukrainian rocket artillery and, for the most part, are now unusable. That has made the Russian grip precarious. But President Putin has reportedly overruled his generals’ recommendations of a retreat to safer and more easily defended ground on the east bank.

“Russia is unable to maintain logistics supplies” to the west bank of the Dnipro, said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst and the director of Rochan Consulting, based in Gdansk, Poland. He added that the Ukrainian military’s claim to have achieved the upper hand in artillery and frontline drone strikes in the south was “highly plausible.”

After a recent Ukrainian assault using American M777 howitzers and High Mobility Artillery Rockets, Slovak Zuzana self-propelled artillery and Polish Krab self-propelled artillery, Mr. Muzyka said, citing Ukrainian military sources, heavily battered Russian artillery positions on one section of the Kherson front went silent for more than 48 hours.
A recent drone attack led by Lieutenant Serhiy provided another example of the Russian forces’ vulnerabilities.

Equipped with night-vison goggles — an essential item of modern warfare that the Russian forces generally lack — the soldiers drove to the front line in an SUV with the headlights off, passing the jagged ruins of houses in a destroyed village silhouetted by a thin sliver of the moon.

Rattling under the driver’s seat were eight small bombs, each packed with a pound and a half of high explosives, enough to obliterate an armored vehicle. In the rear storage area sat a high-end, commercially available drone.

From a rooftop position, two former computer programmers turned tank hunters directed drone strikes that took out two Russian armored vehicles in the space of about three hours, destroying more than a million dollars of Russian weaponry with a weapon that cost about $20,000.

After each flight, the drone buzzed back a few minutes later, unscathed.

This drone system, called Perun, one of dozens used by the Ukrainian military, swoops in at an altitude of about 500 feet, hovers directly over a target and releases its bombs.

The drones are audible from the ground but still effective, Lieutenant Serhiy said, as the Russian forces “don’t have much time” to shoot them down. It cannot be flown in all weather, and sometimes misses. “The technology is not perfect,” he said, “but it works when it works.”

Farther from the front line, out of drone range, American-provided, satellite-guided artillery shells have forced the Russian military to carefully camouflage or pull back heavy equipment, said Lieutenant Oleh, the commander of a drone surveillance unit.

“Russia’s advantage was only one thing: quantity,” Lieutenant Oleh said in an interview at his base, a house along a muddy lane in a village. The inside was crammed with screens, laptops, cables and batteries. A strip of flypaper dangled from the ceiling.

Sitting in front of his screens, he pinpoints tanks, barracks or other military objects and relays coordinates to artillery teams firing satellite guided shells, which hit within a yard or two of their intended targets.

“From a typical howitzer, you create a sniper rifle,” he said of the combination of drone surveillance and satellite guided artillery shells, something Russia lacks. “One shot, one kill.”

The partial destruction of bridges over the broad Dnipro River through the summer slowed Russia’s movement of heavy equipment to the river’s western bank, even as Western weaponry helped Ukraine whittle away at what was already there. The combination cost Russia its artillery advantage on the river’s western bank.

“Think of the orcs in their trenches,” Lieutenant Oleh said, using a derisive term for Russian soldiers. “They have no heavy weaponry, no supplies, it’s cold and raining. It’s a really difficult state for morale.”

If they try to hold out in Kherson city, he said, referring to a protracted battle with the Nazis in World War II, “it will be Stalingrad in winter for them.”

While the messaging and movement of forces around Kherson on both sides have been hard to decipher, by design, there is no mistaking which side has the momentum.

Major Oleksandr, the commander of the Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer battery, said he had the sense of the Russian lines that “if we shake them, they will disintegrate.” But he was also aware of the possibility of deception, with the Russians trying to lure Ukraine into a premature advance by falsely signaling a willingness to withdraw.

Ukraine’s buildup of forces could also be a trick, he said.

“The plans of our leadership are always unpredictable,” Major Oleksandr said, “and I like it that way.”

nytimes.com

Russia Says Crimea Attack Drones Used Grain Corridor ‘Safe Zone’

Russia said Sunday it recovered debris from drones that attacked its fleet in Sevastopol, exploiting the "safe zone" of a grain corridor, and could have been launched from a civilian ship.


"The marine drones were moving in the safe zone of the 'grain corridor'," Russia's defense ministry said, adding it had "lifted" some of the drones' debris from the sea.


One of the drones may have been launched "from aboard one of the civilian ships chartered by Kyiv or its Western masters for the export of agricultural products from the seaports of Ukraine."


Moscow on Sunday pulled out of a UN-brokered grain deal after its Black Sea Fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea was targeted by a drone attack.


Russia also said some of the drones used in what it called a "terrorist attack" had Canadian-made parts.


The army said its specialists had "conducted an examination of Canadian-made navigation modules."


Russia has accused Kyiv of planning the Sevastopol attack with the help of British military specialists.


It said one of the drones' data from a "navigation receiver" showed that it was launched "from the coast near the city of Odesa."

Russia Says Crimea Attack Drones Used Grain Corridor ‘Safe Zone’ - The Moscow Times

Russian shelling attacks target critical infrastructure in Kyiv and beyond

On the morning of October 31, Ukrainian authorities declared an air raid alert throughout the entire country. Ukrainian news outlets have reported explosions in the Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad regions, among others.


Air defense systems were activated in the Kyiv, Poltava, and Vinnytsia regions. Local authorities reported strikes on critical infrastructure targets in the Zaporizhzhia and Cherkasy regions as well as in Kyiv and Kharkiv.


As a result of the strikes, part of Kyiv has lost power, and several of the city’s districts currently have no running water, according to the city’s mayor, Vitaly Klitschko. A journalist from the BBC reported that electricity and cell service were cut off in Kyiv after “many explosions” were heard. In Kharkiv, metro service has been suspended.


In addition, multiple lines of Ukraine’s railroad service lost power after energy infrastructure targets were shelled. Diesel locomotives have been brought out to replace the electric ones.


Commenting on the shelling, Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said that Russian forces “continue to wage war against peaceful facilities.” “We’ll withstand it, and their shame will be very costly for entire generations of Russians. We continue to work both on the home front and on the battlefield,” he added.


The Russian Defense Ministry has not commented on the shelling.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/31...yiv-and-beyond

The Pentagon announced a new $275 million shipment from American stockpiles to Kiev

by Kyle Anzalone Posted onOctober 28, 2022CategoriesNews

The Joe Biden administration said the Department of Defense will send $275 million in arms to Ukraine. The shipment is the twenty-fourth since Russian forces invaded in February. The White House has provided Kiev with tens of billions in military aid.


The Pentagon press release says the latest transfer will include ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 155mm Howitzers, and Remote Anti-Armor Mine Systems. Washington will also send Ukraine vehicles, small arms, and communications equipment.


The Department of Defense says Biden authorized the weapons transfer through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). The PDA allows the president to send weapons to foreign militaries directly from American stockpiles. The Pentagon says its supply of some weapons systems are now "uncomfortably low" due to the transfers to Ukraine.


The Pentagon claims American security assistance for Ukraine since the Russian invasion now stands at $17.9 billion. The Kiel Institute, a German think tank, reports Washington’s security assistance for Kiev totals $27.5 billion. The institute, which "is basically funded by the German Federal Government," says the US has also provided Ukraine with $15 billion in financial aid and nearly $10 billion in humanitarian assistance.


The White House announces a new weapons package for Kiev nearly every week. While this package did not include any new weapons platforms, the Pentagon pledged air defense systems in the future.


"Air defense capabilities have been, and will continue to be, a U.S. priority for Ukraine," the Pentagon press release says, adding, "[t]o meet Ukraine’s evolving battlefield requirements, the United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with key capabilities."

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/10/28/...er-to-ukraine/

^ Add that to the bill, along with the war crimes compensation.

Originally Posted by sabang

White House Approves 24th Weapons Transfer to Ukraine

Hopefully another 24 won't be required as the Russian ogres will slime their way back to Russia. Then it's a matter of preparation for the next time the fuckwits try it.

Ukrainians are staying in Kyiv despite Putin's warning. Here's why

A recent barrage of Russian airstrikes in Kyiv, Ukraine, caused an 80% water loss in the city. Despite the attacks and Putin's warning of more airstrikes, residents told CNN's Nic Robertson they plan on staying and are "ready for this."

VIDEO Video: Ukrainians are staying in Kyiv despite Putin'''s warning. Here'''s why | CNN

It's good to know the Russian scum are only attacking military infrastructure

Originally Posted by panama hat

It's good to know the Russian scum are only attacking military infrastructure

Yet the Ukrainians are attacking the underbelly of the Russian army every day with HIMARS constantly striking command posts, ammo dumps, artillery emplacements etc. Russia could be doing the same thing to Ukraine's army, instead they choose to commit acts of terrorism on civilians. They really are not very bright.

There's been a lack of oversight for the tens of billions in weapons being sent to Ukraine

by Dave DeCamp Posted onOctober 31, 2022CategoriesNewsTagsFinland, Ukraine

Finland’s national law enforcement agency, the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), has warned that weapons being shipped to Ukraine are ending up in the hands of criminal gangs.

The Finnish broadcaster YLE reported Sunday that a preliminary investigation conducted by the NBI found that criminals in Finland may have captured military arms sent to Ukraine.

“We’ve seen signs of these weapons already finding their way to Finland,” Christer Ahlgren, the NBI’s detective superintendent, told YLE. Ahlgren said that weapons shipped to Ukraine have also been found in Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands.

Ahlgren didn’t specify what type of weapons criminals were getting hold of, and the Yle report only mentioned rifles. He said that the routes for trafficking the weapons from Ukraine were already in place and said motorcycle gangs were involved in the activity.

“Three of the world’s largest motorcycle gangs—that are part of larger international organizations—are active in Finland. One of these is Bandidos MC, which has a unit in every major Ukrainian city,” Ahlgren said.

There’s been virtually no oversight of the tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons that the US and its NATO allies have been pouring into Ukraine. Back in April, one source briefed on US intelligence told CNN that sending weapons into Ukraine was like dropping the arms into a “big black hole.”

In August, CBS released a short documentary that quoted the head of an NGO that helps get military equipment to Ukraine, who estimated only 30%-40% of the arms are making it to the frontlines. The documentary was quickly retracted after pressure from the Ukrainian government, and CBS said that the 30% estimation was based on figures in April.

Ahlgren said that officials in the region will have to deal with the influx of arms for years to come. “Ukraine has received a large volume of weapons and that’s good, but we’re going to be dealing with these arms for decades and pay the price here,” he said.

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/10/31/...-of-criminals/

Oh noes! A few guns fell off the truck while passing through Finland. I guess we better stop all the shipments now.



Nice source. Antiwar shills repackaging a Zero hedge article. More crap.

Russian occupation authorities in southern Ukraine said Tuesday that tens of thousands more people would be evacuated from the Kherson region amid Kyiv's counteroffensive.


The Russian-installed leader of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, said some 70,000 people along a 15-kilometer stretch of the left bank of the Dnipro River would be moved deeper into the region or to Russia.


"We have already begun this work," he said in an interview with the Solovyov Live YouTube channel.


He said the resettlement was being carried out because of the risk of a "massive missile attack" by Ukrainian forces on a local dam.


Russia's occupation authorities last week said that 70,000 civilians left their homes located on the right bank of the Dnipro River.

Ukraine War: Power Restored in Kyiv as Putin Declares Mobilization Over - The Moscow Times

Originally Posted by sabang

Finnish Law Enforcement: Arms Sent to Ukraine Ending Up in Hands of Criminals

Better headline:

Originally Posted by The World

World News: Arms brought to Ukraine by criminals in Russian uniforms.

Originally Posted by misskit

He said the resettlement was being carried out because of the risk of a "massive missile attack" by Ukrainian forces on a local dam.

He is forecasting a massive missile attack by Russia? That'll get him into trouble.

Hun Sen speaks to Zelensky, agrees to send Cambodian deminers to Ukraine

Prime Minister Hun Sen said that Cambodia would send deminers to Ukraine to provide training in mine and unexploded ordnance (UXO) clearance, while also accepting his Ukrainian counterpart’s invitation to visit the country at a “suitable time”.


Hun Sen made the pledge during a phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on November 1.


According to a press statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Cambodia will provide the demining training in collaboration with Japan, though it did not specify the timeline for the dispatch to the country at war with Russia.


Hun Sen also expressed concern over the recent attacks by the Russian military on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other regions, which had caused heavy casualties, damage to civilian infrastructure, power outages and water shortages.


He shared the suffering that Cambodia had gone through, and urged all parties to the conflict to strive for a “comprehensive” compromise so that Ukraine can regain peace, stability, territorial integrity and development.


Zelensky thanked Cambodia for co-sponsoring the UN General Assembly resolutions against Russia’s invasion and annexation of Ukrainian regions.


On the diplomatic front, Zelensky agreed to Hun Sen’s proposal to appoint ambassadors between the two countries.

Hun Sen speaks to Zelensky, agrees to send Cambodian deminers to Ukraine

Ukraine’s nuclear agency: Russian military are building something at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

The Russian military are building a new object at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, reports the Ukrainian Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate. It isn’t clear what exactly the occupying army is constructing.


According to the nuclear agency, construction is taking place on the site of the spent fuel storage facility, which is one of the seven nuclear objects at the power plant. This violates nuclear and radiation safety standards.


The inspectorate points out that the NPP’s regular staff are not permitted near the construction site.


On November 1, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (GUR) reported that the Russian military had placed equipment for preventing aerial reconnaissance on the rooftop of Zaporizhzhia NPP’s fifth power unit.

The Russian military occupied the Zaporizhzhia NPP shortly after the start of the invasion. Since then, the plant has been shelled multiple times, both Russia and Ukraine blaming it on the other side. Russia’s alleged storage of military equipment at the NPP has also caused concern. After visiting the plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called for establishing a safety zone around the plant.


The Ukrainian GUR believes that the Russians are planning to cancel the current employees’ passes to the NPP. Operational shift workers have to sign or cancel their contracts with the Russian nuclear agency, Rosatom, by November 2; other staff have until December 1 to do the same. Only the operational shift workers have access to the station at the moment. Engineering staff are not allowed into the workplace.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/11/02...ar-power-plant

Originally Posted by misskit

After visiting the plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called for establishing a safety zone around the plant.

What the IAEA should be doing is calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russians from the site.
Too bad they have no power to make it happen.

Russia Threatens Norway With Ugly Fall Out

Russia announced Wednesday that it views Norway’s work with other countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as provocative, warning that Norway’s efforts to bolster its military in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year will likely be the death knell for Oslo-Moscow relations moving forward.


“Oslo is now among the most active supporters of NATO's involvement in the Arctic,” Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Wednesday, according to TASS. “We consider such developments near Russian borders as Oslo's deliberate pursuit of a destructive course toward escalation of tensions in the Euro-Arctic region and the final destruction of Russian-Norwegian relations.”


In her statement, Zakharova also warned that any further “unfriendly actions will be followed by a timely and adequate response.”


The news of Russia’s complaints about Norway comes just a day after Norway raised its military alert level in response to suspicious drone sightings. Norway has arrested several Russians, including one son of an associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s, and accused them of illegally flying drones in Norwegian airspace or taking photos in restricted areas as concerns abound about potential Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre warned Russia to cut it out, according to Norwegian broadcaster NRK.


NATO countries ought to be on alert to Russia’s aggression in light of the war in Ukraine, Støre warned Monday.


“Today, we have no reason to believe that Russia will want to involve Norway or any other country directly in the war,” Støre said. “But the war in Ukraine makes it necessary for all NATO countries to be more vigilant.”

Norway has previously hosted exercises and has long hosted rotational deployments of U.S. troops for arctic training. Russia’s announcement comes weeks after the U.S. Air Force participated in a combat arctic integration training exercise with NATO allies and the Royal Norwegian Air Force at Norway’s Ørland Main Air Station, according to the U.S. Defense Department. The allies worked to operate quickly across weapons platforms and systems to try to deter Russia along NATO’s eastern flank.


“The sum is that together, we can better defend not only Norway and the Nordic countries, but also Europe should the need arise,” Col. Martin Tesli, the 132nd Luftving Base commander, said in a statement.


The U.S. Air Force’s 90th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron deployed for the exercise was also able to work with the Air Force from Finland, which is in the process of joining NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.


Moscow’s warning appeared to be just the latest Russian attempt to assert its own narrative as its relationships with countries across Europe and the West continue to deteriorate.


It’s not the first time Russia has tried to raise red flags over what it sees as provocative action from European countries and NATO cooperation. Moscow warned before it invaded Ukraine this year that it views the expansion of members in NATO—which was established to counter threats from the Soviet Union—as a threat to Russia. The Kremlin has maintained that Ukraine’s interest in joining the military alliance poses a threat to Russia, a claim it had repeated in recent days.

Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and European nations is “the most serious security policy situation we have experienced in several decades,” Støre emphasized.


Norway has been working to help Ukraine defend against Russia’s invasion since the outset of the war. The country has sanctioned the Russian government in an attempt to get Moscow to back off from the war and had provided Ukraine with military assistance. The assistance includes an air defense system, Mistral surface-to-air missiles, thousands of anti-tank missiles, protective gear such as bulletproof vests and helmets, and armored vehicles.


Oslo has also sought to ramp up its military budget. Just last month, Norway proposed boosting its defense budget for next year by nearly 10 percent, according to Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram. A chunk of the increase is dedicated to weapons for Ukraine’s defense against Russia.


“Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is a threat to Norwegian and European security. The war has already had major security political, economic, and humanitarian consequences,” Gram said. “The need for military support to Ukraine is necessary, extensive, and time-critical. This budget strengthens the Armed Forces and stands up for Ukraine.”


Norway is also helping to train Ukrainian soldiers alongside the U.K. and has promised to provide Ukraine over $1.1 billion (in USD) in financial assistance over the next two years.


Norway isn’t the only nation Russia has protested in recent days. Late last month Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Moscow sees no point in maintaining diplomatic relations with Western states writ large.


Lavrov noted that Russia would like to focus its world diplomacy on countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia, rather than work with the West.


“We will shift the ‘center of gravity’ to countries that are ready to cooperate with us on equal and mutually beneficial terms and look for promising joint projects,” Lavrov said.

‘Final Destruction’: Russia Threatens Norway With Ugly Fall Out

Jaysus . . . Russia really is Europe's China in the whingefest

Ukraine conflict, sanctions set to blow hole in Russia's finances

(Reuters) - The cost of Russia's military mobilisation and the impact of Western sanctions are set to blow a hole in the government's budget forecasts and drain Moscow's reserves to their lowest level in years, according to analysts' latest calculations.


That will put an ever greater strain on the Kremlin's resources as President Vladimir Putin seeks to fund a conflict with no end in sight and prepares for a possible re-election bid in 2024.

After eight months of what it calls a "special military operation", Moscow has drawn up a 2023 budget that takes no account of the cost of the recent call-up of 300,000 reservists, the declared annexation of four Ukrainian regions - the Kremlin says the four joined Russia freely - and Western efforts to cap Russian energy export prices, analysts say.


While Russia's economy initially held up relatively well to the waves of Western sanctions imposed on it, the impact is beginning to show - in analysts' assessments, if not in those of the government.


"The macroeconomic forecast, upon which the budget is based, was calculated before mobilisation," said Alexandra Suslina, an independent analyst. "It does not take into account new sanctions, and therefore is not reflecting reality."


Putin's current, fourth term as a president expires in 2024 and he is yet to say if he will run again - a process that, judging by past campaigns, would likely involve courting voters with promises to spend more on wages, welfare and pensions.


Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that Putin had not yet decided whether to run in 2024 but added: "The social obligations of the state are an absolute priority."


Russian official forecasts estimate that GDP will fall 0.8% next year, while a Reuters poll of analysts sees the economy shrinking 2.5%. The World Bank expects a 3.6% contraction.


BALLOONING DEFICIT


Russia's finance ministry expects the budget deficit next year to almost double from this year to 3 trillion roubles, or 2% of gross domestic product. Analysts at state bank VTB forecast the gap at an even wider 4-4.5 trillion roubles.


Moscow sees energy revenues at 9 trillion roubles next year, or a third of its total income - a projection analysts say is also too optimistic amid upcoming sanctions on Russian energy imports by the west.

"The finance ministry forecasts incredible things such as that energy income ... would remain as before, like Russia would continue to produce the same amount of oil with demand unchanged," an economist at a western financial company said.


As Europe cuts ties with Russia, Moscow risks losing a staggering 55% of its oil product exports, or over 80 million tonnes, next year, the government has estimated. Gazprom's gas exports already plunged 43% in January-October compared with the same period last year.


The finance ministry sees non-energy revenue, or that related to economic activity, at 11.5% of GDP in 2023, around 7% higher than this year and on par with pre-pandemic levels.


But analysts say that this, too, is hardly realistic.


"Consumer demand will be falling, people will be buying less, cheaper, lower in quality - and then the non-energy income forecast... will have to be revised," said Suslina.


While Russia this week officially ended what it calls its "partial" mobilisation, some 300,000 reservists called up by the Kremlin for its campaign in Ukraine since September remain in military units, which also hurts economic activity.


Lower economic activity and weak imports may see Moscow collecting around 1 trillion roubles less per year from value-added tax, its main non-energy income, according to a joint study by the Russian Presidential Academy Ranepa and the Gaidar Institute.


Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Moscow-based broker Locko Invest, estimates that payouts to those mobilised - including higher-than-average salaries and compensation in the event of injury or death - may come to between 900 billion roubles and 3 trillion roubles in the next half-year alone.


The finance ministry did not reply to a Reuters request for a comment.


Finance minister Anton Siluanov, without giving details, told Russian lawmakers last week that the budget "allows (us) to meet all social obligations without harming macroeconomic stability."


LIMITED OPTIONS


Russia has few options for plugging the budget deficit, analysts say, as sanctions and counter-sanctions have hit foreign investors' ability to invest in domestic rouble bonds, and the finance ministry is already depleting the resources of the National Wealth Fund (NWF).


As Russia has actively started spending NWF money on everything from economic support to social payments, the finance ministry sees the fund halving to 6.25 trillion roubles, or 4.2% of GDP - its lowest since 2018 - by the end of next year.


"The main budget risk amid significant sanctions pressure... is of a complete dry-out of the NWF, which could significantly undermine the federal budget's stability and the budget system as a whole," analysts at the Financial University said in a recent note.


If it falls to 5.95 trillion roubles, or 3.7% of GDP, by the end of 2024, the amount of cash left would be the smallest Russia has had in its reserves in the last two decades, according to the budget comments by the state Audit Chamber.


"Sources to finance the budget deficit are now scarcer than ever," Suslina said.


"I very much hope that the finance ministry will avoid outright money printing."


Ukraine conflict, sanctions set to blow hole in Russia's finances

Won't blow a hole in the Putin savings accounts I fancy.

Originally Posted by misskit

"I very much hope that the finance ministry will avoid outright money printing."

To be fair, everyone else has been doing it . . .

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Won't blow a hole in the Putin savings accounts I fancy.

Not his but I'm sure hid best friends won't be too happy with it

Please can I have 2.20 minutes of your time. When they captured the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, Russia celebrated. Russia celebrated doing this to a city of 450,00, largely Russian speaking residents. This is what Putin calls the liberation of #Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/sta...31291009007616


Click on twitter link for a drive through Mariupol. The City is devastated.