Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

We don’t know how exactly this war will end, but we do know that Russia will not win. Even if Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strained mobilization of hundreds of thousands of inexperienced new troops leads to some tactical wins, his invasion of Ukraine is already a strategic loss. Russia is weakened economically, politically, and militarily. Putin has ensured a painful winter in Europe but hastened Europe’s energy diversification and transition. The Russian military’s failures and resort to widespread atrocities have exposed Moscow’s conventional military capabilities as a Potemkin force. We can only imagine what the Chinese are thinking today about their de facto ally—or how the Turkish general staff is now recalculating Ankara’s strategic options in the Black Sea region and beyond. If Putin were to follow through on his threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it would only compound his strategic defeat.

Therefore, even as Western analysts and officials warn against placing too much hope on a quick Ukrainian victory, Russian power and influence is already visibly weakened. Russia is not withdrawing so much as it is deflating. Consequently, there is a kind of giant geopolitical sucking sound all around Russia’s periphery—from Eastern Europe to Central Asia—as a diminished Russia creates a vacuum that could unsettle an already fragile status quo.

Russia’s self-inflicted diminishment is, in many ways, a continuation of a process that began with the collapse of the Soviet empire. When the Soviet Union ceased to exist more than three decades ago, the ripple effects of evaporated Soviet power included wars in the Caucasus, the consolidation of power by strongmen in Central Asia, and two brutal wars in Chechnya. In essence, these were postcolonial conflicts, just as Russia is attempting to restore imperial control over Ukraine today. In a different way, the breakup of the former Yugoslavia and the conflicts that followed were also related to the collapse of the Soviet Union—if less directly. As the Cold War ended, Yugoslavia’s importance on the strategic chessboard declined. It was, at least in part, this vacuum and resulting lack of Western interest that allowed Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic to exploit domestic divisions for ethnic conflict.

Since Putin came to power, his progressively authoritarian regime has attempted to project Russian power all throughout the former Soviet space. His policies have been fueled by a combination of a desire to reassert control over the Soviet Union’s former territories, which he doesn’t see as legitimate or fully sovereign states, and his deeply held fear that democratic awakenings in any of them might be contagious. In Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, Russia has created—or maintained—so-called frozen conflicts to use as leverage points and bargaining chips. Putin’s war against Ukraine, from its start in 2014 with the invasion of Crimea through its massive escalation in February, shares many elements of this approach, hypercharged by a genocidal denial that a Ukrainian nation, language, and culture even exists.

Putin’s strategic loss in Ukraine may now loosen Russia’s grip. The lost war in Ukraine has put Russia’s future political development and security arrangements into focus. With the diminishment of Russian prestige and power, the geopolitical landscape across Eurasia could prove dynamic.

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Take Azerbaijan and Armenia. Putin’s use of natural gas supplies as a political weapon against Europe has been a boon for Azerbaijan and its own authoritarian leader, Ilham Aliyev. Putin’s war has raised the price of Azerbaijan’s key export even as European leaders have courted the country in their rush to diversify supplies. Thus emboldened—and sensing Russia’s distraction with the war in Ukraine—Azerbaijan attacked Armenia last month in the most significant outbreak of violence since the two countries’ 2020 war. As of late September, Armenian officials reported more than 200 of its soldiers as killed and nearly 300 soldiers injured.

The 2020 war ended with a Moscow-brokered agreement and Russian peacekeepers deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh, the long-contested majority-Armenian territory in Azerbaijan. The latest fighting, however, didn’t end at a Russian negotiating table, even though Armenia had appealed to Russia, its traditional patron, to intercede. As Armenian Security Council chair Armen Grigoryan confirmed during his visit to Washington on Sept. 26, it was U.S. diplomacy that took the place of Moscow’s this time. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Grigoryan said, was “personally involved and on the phone with both sides.” U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi traveled to Yerevan, the Armenian capital, to demonstrate support.

Even though much of the West’s attention has focused on Aliyev apparently seizing the moment, even to the point of potentially overplaying his hand, that is not what’s remarkable about Russia’s loss of influence. More significant in the long term is that Armenia seems to have given up, at least for now, on Russia as a security guarantor and is looking to the West for political support—and receiving it. That could have profound influences on the region’s post-Russian future. If it comes to a stable Armenian-Azerbaijani border deal—as some reports indicate—it will be brokered at the Western table. Russia, at this point, is in no position to be either a broker or guarantor.

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Or look at Georgia to calibrate the potential effects of waning Russian influence. After the 2003 Rose Revolution, and especially at the time of the 2008 Russo-Georgian war, Georgia had the hopes and sympathy of many in the West who saw the small country on the Black Sea as emblematic of the potential for democratic progress in the Caucasus—and Russia’s determination to squelch it. In many ways, the Kremlin’s puppet republics in Ukraine’s Donbas region derived from its Georgia playbook. Russia has occupied Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions since the 2008 war and is adept at using the occupation as a way to exert political leverage over—and deny progress to—the Georgian government.

Now that Moscow has wrapped itself around the axle of its disastrous war in Ukraine, Georgia might have the opportunity to press forward with democratic reforms and further orient itself toward the West. Unfortunately, the country’s democracy has receded significantly in recent years. The government is largely controlled by a billionaire with significant ties to Russia and a moderate view toward Moscow: former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, whose Georgian Dream party has dominated the political scene since 2012. Virulent polarization has gripped the country, corruption is on the rise, and the space for civil society and independent media is shrinking. The Georgian government has lashed out at the U.S. ambassador despite the United States’ role as Georgia’s most important security partner. Against this background, Georgia was not on the list when Ukraine and Moldova were made European Union candidate countries in June.

Although the recession of Russian power, precipitated by strategic defeat in Ukraine, creates space for Georgia to deepen its ties with the West, Georgia’s toxic political culture makes it more of a political island than it needs to be.

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For Moldova, Putin’s unraveling couldn’t come at a better time. After unexpectedly electing Maia Sandu, a charismatic, young reformer, as president in late 2020, Moldova now appears poised for progress. Its new status as an EU candidate means it has jumped the queue for Western integration despite having one of Russia’s frozen conflicts on its territory.

For three decades, Russia has stationed troops and stored weapons in Transnistria, the slice of Moldova that lies between the Dniester river and the Ukrainian border. There, Moscow has bankrolled and loosely controlled a puppet government with colorful, clownish leaders. In recent years, the Moldovan government has sought to remove barriers for Transnistrians to access the economy on the other side of the river on the theory that reintegration was more likely to come from engaging them than from trying to evict the Russians.

If Moldova—with EU and U.S. support—can really make progress on rule of law and economic development, its attractiveness to residents of Transnistria will be even better. Time will tell whether those elements of Moldova’s own political scene that have historically been underwritten by Russian corruption will find Moscow’s checkbook as generous as before the war. In any case, Putin’s focus on salvaging his lost war in Ukraine could create the space Moldova needs to move forward with less of Russia’s incessant sabotage. One should always temper optimism—after all, there are still Russian weapons and soldiers in Transnistria who would need to leave somehow—but of Russia’s frozen conflicts, Moldova is the most likely to find a resolution in the coming years. Motivated democratic actors are stepping up, whereas Putin is on the back foot.

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The Balkans, where Moscow has a long history of stoking conflict, have much to gain from a pullback of Russian influence. Putin has cultivated a relationship with Serbian leader Aleksander Vucic, and Russian public diplomacy has successfully engaged a significant part of the Serbian public. Vucic has played a successful game of balancing Russian, European, U.S., and Chinese interests in the country, playing them against one another to advance his own agenda. Russia’s decline as a result of the war may increase Vucic’s interest in economic ties with Beijing while also making his government more likely to work constructively with Brussels and Washington. Still, it’s far from clear that Vucic has the personal inclination or the political space to resolve Serbia’s outstanding issues related to Kosovo—a prerequisite for Serbia’s full European integration.

Putin’s long-standing habit of stoking conflict means the West must pay attention to the Balkans even as Russia is wrapped up in Ukraine. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia’s longtime support for Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik could be the fuse that Putin tries to light as a way of making problems for Europe. Dodik recently met with Putin and offered support for the sham referendums that Russia used to purportedly annex four Ukrainian oblasts last month. Bosnia and Herzegovina is notoriously politically fragile, in part because the country failed to adopt—and external partners failed to adequately support—a workable long-term constitutional framework. In another twist on his frozen conflict playbook, Putin could, for example, encourage Dodik to declare his intention to formally merge Republika Srpska, the majority-Serbian region within the country, with Serbia. There is plenty of competition for White House attention these days, but a presidential or vice presidential visit to Sarajevo, the capital, could send a valuable signal.

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Which of these or other dominoes will fall—and when and how? It is too soon to predict the ultimate fallout of Russia’s certain strategic defeat, partly because it is not clear how severe the defeat will be. And although dominoes certainly fall in geopolitics, they don’t always fall how one expects. International politics isn’t physics: The forces bringing about geopolitical outcomes are more varied and the rules less reliable.

What seems certain, though, is that a phase of geopolitical plasticity elevates the importance of diplomacy, which now has a greater opportunity to have an impact in how the dominoes will fall. Therefore, although the West is primarily focused on its response to Russia’s war against Ukraine and the war’s impacts on energy supplies and inflation, the United States and Europe should not miss the chance to quietly but energetically exploit Russia’s colossal strategic mistake to work toward a better status quo—and avoid a worse one—in the places where Russia’s now-receding power projection has proven so nefarious and calcifying in the past.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/14...-power-vacuum/

Originally Posted by panama hat

You don't know that, helge . . . it could well be under by tens of thousands. As I said, the mass graves being found in areas the murderous Russian scum occupied and the numerous ones in occupied territory.

My saying 10 if it's 9 or 11 isn't even remotely as bad as the Russian scum actually killing them.

No excuses. They invaded a sovereign country without being under threat and with ridiculous rationale - I hope the scum responsible simply die a painful death.

Yes I don't know

But I took the liberty of looking it up.

UN says 6 thousand something.

I don't see any reason to sex up such a horrific number.

But if you have a link, then I would like to have a look.


Massgraves; Have the forensics had a look yet ?

Would be nice to see a report

Originally Posted by helge

Massgraves; Have the forensics had a look yet ?

They have been unearthed . . . and more will be. Sadly, the murderous Russians seem to enjoy murdering civilians

Putin Tells Reporters Russia Has No Plan to ‘Destroy’ Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin shed some light on his current state of mind regarding the war in Ukraine at a press conference in the Kazakh capital Astana on Friday.


Among the takeaways from the president's rare Q&A session was the announcement that Russia's "partial" mobilization campaign would be coming to an end in a matter of weeks, and that the Kremlin had already managed to draft 222,000 reservists of an expected 300,000.


"Nothing additional is planned. No proposals have been received from the defense ministry and I don't see any additional need in the foreseeable future," Putin added.


Speaking just days after the Kremlin unleashed multiple missile strikes on Ukrainian cities in what has widely been seen as retaliation for an attack on the Crimean Bridge, Putin played down the possibility of more such attacks in the near future.


"There is no need now for massive strikes. There are other tasks," Putin told reporters, adding with no apparent irony that Russia had not set itself "the goal of destroying Ukraine."

Russia was "doing everything right" in Ukraine, Putin stressed.


"What is happening today is not pleasant. But all the same [if Russia hadn't attacked in February] we would have been in the same situation, only the conditions would have been worse for us," he said.


However, he did acknowledge that Moscow's former Soviet allies were "worried" about the conflict, but said that this did not affect their relations with the Kremlin "in any way."


When asked about a possible meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden during the upcoming G20 summit in Bali, Putin said he saw "no need" for bilateral talks, while advising reporters to ask Biden directly whether he was ready to hold a meeting.


Putin added that his personal attendance of the G20 summit next month remained uncertain. "Russia will certainly take part. As for the format, we're still thinking about it."

Putin Tells Reporters Russia Has No Plan to 'Destroy' Ukraine - The Moscow Times

Russia Says 11 Killed in ‘Terrorist’ Attack at Military Site

Russia said two gunmen from an ex-Soviet state on Saturday attacked a military training ground killing 11 people who had volunteered to fight in Ukraine and wounding 15 others.


Russia's defense ministry said the attack in the Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, happened during a firearms training session.


Russia launched what it calls a special military operation in Ukraine at the end of February. Last month Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a mobilization of 300,000 Russians who had previously done compulsory military service.


"On October 15, two citizens of a CIS country committed an act of terror at a training range of the Western military district in the Belgorod region," the state news agencies quoted the ministry as saying.


"As a result, 11 people were fatally wounded. Another 15 people suffered injuries of varying gravity and were taken to medical facilities."


The two attackers "were killed in retaliatory fire", the ministry added.


The CIS, or Commonwealth of Independent States, was formed between republics that were part of the Soviet Union.


More than 200,000 people have been conscripted into the Russian armed forces since the announcement of partial mobilization on September 21.


The draft announcement sparked protests and several attacks on recruitment offices.


Fierce fighting


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meanwhile said Saturday that his troops were facing a "most difficult" situation near the eastern town of Bakhmut, which has been under attack from the Russian army for weeks.


Ukraine is clawing back territory in both the east and south, occupied by Russia for months, but is facing a tough challenge in some areas.


"A very severe situation persists in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions," Zelensky said, referring to two regions Russia says it has annexed.


"The most difficult is near Bakhmut, like in previous days. We are still holding our positions," he said.


Russian troops have for weeks been pummelling Bakhmut, a wine-making and salt-mining city that used to be populated by 70,000 people, in the hope of capturing the city.


Zelensky also said that Russia's total losses were now approaching 65,000.


One soldier, just back from the front line, told AFP they had been fighting for four days non-stop.


"Out of the 13 guys in my group, we lost two soldiers, and five got evacuated," said the 50-year-old soldier, "Poliak", from the 93rd brigade.


"For days I didn't sleep, didn't eat, didn't drink except coffee," he added.


France meanwhile said it would train up to 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers on its soil.


Minister for the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu said France would also provide Ukraine with Crotale air-defence systems "to allow them to defend their skies".


Repeated strikes


Saturday's attack in the Belgorod training ground is the latest in a series of incidents to have hit the Russian region.


Earlier Saturday, Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod, said an oil depot was on fire after having been shelled. He posted a photo showing flames and plumes of black smoke rising above a building.


Last week Russia complained of an increase in artillery and missile strikes on its territory bordering Ukraine.


And on Friday the authorities said that a Ukrainian strike had set fire to a power station in the regional capital, also called Belgorod, causing power cuts.


This came a day after a rocket gutted the top floor of an apartment building in the city of Belgorod, without causing injuries.


A munition depot in the region was also destroyed on Thursday.


Earlier in the week, Russian officials said Ukrainian strikes had knocked out power in the town of Shebekino in the same region. A 74-year-old woman died and several others were wounded in the town.

Russia Says 11 Killed in 'Terrorist' Attack at Military Site - The Moscow Times

Moscow’s defence ministry says it repelled a major attack by Kyiv’s troops in the south and inflicted ‘significant losses on the enemy’.

Russia says its forces have battled oncoming Ukraine troops to a standstill in the country’s south and inflicted “significant losses”.
Russian soldiers held their positions during “fierce fighting” in the Kherson region and Ukrainian troops were also targeted in the eastern region of Donetsk, Russia’s defence ministry said on Sunday.


“The enemy made attempts to break through the defence of the Russian troops in the areas of Koshara and Pyatykhatky in the Kherson region with forces of up to three battalions, including one tank battalion,” chief defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said.

“The Russian army units held their positions in fierce battles, inflicting significant losses on the enemy,” he said.

Al Jazeera could not independently verify the battlefield reports.

Ukraine’s presidential office said Moscow’s military shelled towns and villages along the front line in the east and “active hostilities” continued in the Kherson region.

Ukrainian army spokesman Oleksandr Shtupun said the Russians began the evacuation of “state institutions” from the Kherson region to Crimea. Shtupun said the Ukrainian army carried out 20 attacks over the past day.

Russian forces targeted more than 30 towns and villages across Ukraine, launching five missiles and 23 air strikes and up to 60 rocket attacks, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said.

Fighting was particularly intense in the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk and the strategically important Kherson province. They were three of the four provinces Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed as part of Russia last month.

Konashenkov acknowledged that Russia attacked Ukrainian regions on Sunday.

“During the past 24 hours, the Russian armed forces continued to strike with high-precision, long-range, air-launched weapons at military command and control facilities as well as the energy system of Ukraine,” Konashenkov said. “The goals of the strikes were achieved. All assigned targets were hit.”

FULL_ Russian forces hold the line in Kherson as Ukraine counterstrikes | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Originally Posted by sabang

Russia’s defence ministry said on Sunday.

A bastion of integrity and honesty.

Russian soldiers have shot dead a Ukrainian musician in his home after he refused to take part in a concert in occupied Kherson, according to the culture ministry in Kyiv.

Conductor Yuriy Kerpatenko declined to take part in a concert “intended by the occupiers to demonstrate the so-called ‘improvement of peaceful life’ in Kherson”, the ministry said in a statement on its Facebook page.

The concert on 1 October was intended to feature the Gileya chamber orchestra, of which Kerpatenko was the principal conductor, but he “categorically refused to cooperate with the occupants”, the statement said.

Kerpatenko, who was also the principal conductor of Kherson’s Mykola Kulish Music and Drama Theatre, had been posting defiant messages on his Facebook page until May.

The Kherson regional prosecutor’s office in Ukraine has launched a formal investigation “on the basis of violations of the laws and customs of war, combined with intentional murder”. Family members outside Kherson lost contact with the conductor in September, it said.

Condemnation by Ukrainian and international artists was swift. “The history of Russia imposing a ‘comply or die’ policy against artists is nothing new. It has a history which spans for hundred of years,” said the Finnish-Ukrainian conductor Dalia Stasevska, who was scheduled to conduct the Last Night of the Proms at London’s Albert Hall last month before it was cancelled because of the Queen’s death.

“I have seen too much silence from Russian colleagues,” she said. “Would this be the time for Russian musicians, especially those living and working abroad, to finally step up and take a stand against the Russian regime’s actions in Ukraine?”

A fortnight ago Stasevska drove a truck of humanitarian supplies into Lviv from her home in Finland, before conducting the INSO-Lviv orchestra in a concert of Ukrainian contemporary music.
“We know the Russian regime is hunting activists, journalists, artists, community leaders, and anyone ready to resist the occupation,” said the prizewinning Ukrainian novelist turned war crimes investigator Victoria Amelina.

“Yet, even knowing the current pattern and history, we cannot and, more importantly, shouldn’t get used to hearing about more brutal murders of a bright, talented, brave people whose only fault was being Ukrainian.”

She drew a parallel between Kerpatenko and Mykola Kulish, the Ukrainian playwright after whom the theatre where the conductor worked is named.

“Kulish was shot on 3 November 1937, near Sandarmokh, with 289 other Ukrainian writers, artists and intellectuals. Yuriy Kerpatenko was shot in his home in Kherson in October 2022,” she said.

The Russians’ actions were “pure genocide”, said the conductor Semyon Bychkov from Paris, where he was performing as music director of the Czech Philharmonic. The St Petersburg-born conductor left Russia as a young man in the 1970s.

“The tragic irony of this is that talk about the superiority of Russian culture, its humanism,” he said. “And here they murdered someone who is actually bringing beauty to people’s lives. It is sickening.

“The bullets don’t distinguish between people. It didn’t make me feel worse that this man was a conductor, it just confirmed the pure evil that’s been going on even before the first bombs fell on Ukraine.”

The novelist Andrey Kurkov, author of Death and the Penguin, said: ““Now the name of Yuriy Kerpatenko will be added to the list of murdered artists of Ukraine. I increasingly think that Russia is not only seeking to occupy Ukrainian territories, but also diligently destroying Ukrainian identity, an important part of which is Ukrainian culture.”

Ukrainian author Oleksandr Mykhed, who joined the military at the outbreak of the war, and whose home was destroyed by Russian shelling, said: “Russia is trying to reconstruct the Soviet Union in the occupied territories. To reconstruct something improbable.

“One of the key components of Soviet policy was the destruction of culture of the enslaved countries. Murder of cultural figures, purging of libraries, banning of national languages.
“The modern occupiers are fully following this strategy. Destroying culture, sports, education.

“And when our territories are deoccupied, we will learn about dozens and hundreds of such terrible stories. Stories of destruction and heroic resistance.”

“It is absolutely terrifying,” said chief stage director of Kyiv’s National Opera of Ukraine, Anatoliy Solovianenko. “Whether he was a doctor, or a worker, or an artist, it makes no difference. He was a human, and he refused to comply.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e_iOSApp_Other

Add another war crime to Putin's list.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Russian troops kill Ukrainian musician for refusing role in Kherson concert

I wonder if sabang likes the dead guy's music

Good news...

By using Iranian drones to attack Ukrainian cities, Vladimir Putin has imported a weapon that has defined the Middle East’s conflicts into the heart of Europe.

One possible consequence of its use could be to drag Israel into the war as a fearsome ally of Ukraine, using its unrivalled expertise in countering Tehran’s drones.

There is also speculation over what Iran is getting in return for deliveries of its inexpensive but deadly weapons, and particularly about whether Russia could help Tehran’s rapidly accelerating nuclear programme.

After extensive drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, Israel is now facing immense pressure to join the United States and Europe in providing military technology to Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials have been urgently lobbying Israel for air defence technology, while one Israeli government minister broke ranks on Sunday to publicly endorse armed support for Ukraine.

However, such a move could shatter Israel’s extremely delicate, regional relationship with Russia, which for now has turned a blind eye to Israeli army operations in Syria against Iranian-backed forces.

Moscow is also threatening to close down the Jewish Agency in Russia, which would potentially wreck efforts to facilitate the emigration of Russian Jews to Israel.

Moreover, Israeli officials are said to be concerned that openly siding against Russia with Ukraine could destabilise its nine million-strong population, which includes roughly a million Russian Jews and half a million Ukrainians.

Then there is the nuclear issue: there have been few indications as to what Iran gains from Russia in return for sending drones, which may soon be followed by ballistic missile shipments.

But Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme this year, which Israel regards as an existential threat, and appears to be forging an alliance with nuclear-armed Russia.

On Sunday, one Israeli minister broke ranks to call on his government to give Ukraine military support. "There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as well, just as the USA and Nato countries provide," Nachman Shai, diaspora affairs minister, wrote on Twitter.

The tweet prompted an angry response from Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president, who said that supplying weapons would "destroy all bilateral relations between our countries".

Western-allied Gulf states, in particular the United Arab Emirates, are also no stranger to Iranian drone attacks. On January 17, drones launched by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels struck the city of Abu Dhabi, killing three civilians. And, on July 29, a suspected Iranian drone strike on the Mercer Street vessel off the coast of Oman killed a British sailor and a Romanian captain.

It remains unclear what support, if any, the Gulf states might be willing to provide. Saudi Arabia's recent decision to cut oil production amid a global energy crisis triggered by Moscow has prompted accusations from Washington that it is siding with Russia in the Ukraine conflict.

Much of the debate over potential Israeli air support has focused on the Iron Dome, a billion-dollar interception system which protects Israeli cities from rockets launched by Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups in Gaza.

Sources familiar with Israel's military strategy say this is a red herring, arguing that the Iron Dome - which covers the tiny landmass of Israel - is not equipped for dealing with ballistic missiles in a territory as large as Ukraine.

However, the Iron Dome is capable of intercepting drones, and reportedly worked well in taking down several during the May 2021 conflict between Israel and Gaza. Israeli soldiers also have a wealth of experience and expertise which could be shared with Ukrainian troops as well as non-Iron Dome related hardware.

"The Iran-Russia drone axis shows that Iran's drones now pose a threat far beyond the Middle East," said Seth Frantzman, an Israeli analyst and the author of the book "Drone Wars".

"It also means Ukraine can learn from Israel's success against drones [which] is achieved by use of good detection systems such as radar, and scrambling jets, helicopters, or ground-based defences to down the drones," he added, stressing that detecting drones early was a key part of defeating them.

A recent report in the New York Times suggests that Israel may already be sharing intelligence on Iran's drone programme behind the scenes, while one Israeli media report in September claimed that an Israeli tech firm is providing Ukraine with anti-drone expertise.

Those reports have clearly been read with concern in Moscow, which through its grim bargain with Tehran could be about to drag the Middle East's other major power into the Ukraine war.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...nother-middle/

such a move could shatter Israel’s extremely delicate, regional relationship with Russia, which for now has turned a blind eye to Israeli army operations in Syria against Iranian-backed forces.

Israel doesn't give a flying fuck about Russia, that's why it's happy to bomb Iranians in Syria any time it feels like it.

Originally Posted by sabang

Problem is, Russia

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Israel doesn't give a flying fuck about Russia, that's why it's happy to bomb Iranians in Syria any time it feels like it.

That is true, Russia pretends that they have some sort of agreement, but the truth is the Israelis just do what they want as they have no fear of the Russkies.

Anger Mounts as Russian Draftees Thrown Into Battle Without Training, Equipment

Ten days after being mobilized into the Russian army, Igor Puchkov was killed fighting in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region.


The 27-year-old father of two was sent into combat with no military instruction beyond what he had received during his compulsory military service as a teenager, according to relatives.


“We were outraged when he was sent to Ukraine with no training,” his sister-in-law Svetlana Puchkova told The Moscow Times in a phone interview.


“He was promised two weeks of military exercises, but they were only given 30 bullets — they shot once and that was it.”


Mounting evidence of ill-equipped Russian conscripts deployed to Ukraine with almost no military training has sparked bafflement and anger among friends and relatives who spoke to The Moscow Times about the experiences of their loved ones.


Puchkov, from the large Siberian town of Minusinsk, was among hundreds of local men who received draft papers immediately after President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial” mobilization at the end of last month.


Prior to his call-up, Puchkov’s only time in the Armed Forces had been one year of compulsory military service that he completed in 2015.


Puchkov’s widow must now care for their two children, aged three and five years old, on her own.


“He’s gone and she’s left without money, without anything,” Puchkova said. “He was always with a smile on his face, always joking. We don’t even know how he died.”

Similarly, construction worker Alexander Parilov, 35, also from Minusinsk, was not provided with additional training before being sent into battle, according to a friend. He died on the same day as Puchkov.


“No one had even held a machine gun,” said Parilov’s best friend, Igor Solondaev, about the training offered to Parilov and the other locals mobilized with him.


“He bought himself a uniform and boots for 35,000 rubles ($567) but he didn’t have time to buy his own sleeping bag. They were not given anything. A week later, they gave them military uniforms and a machine gun — just a day before sending them to Kherson,” Solondaev told The Moscow Times by phone.


“The next day, he was killed.”


A political gamble intended to solve the army’s manpower problem, Russia’s mobilization has been plagued by problems and excesses. Bringing the Ukraine war home to many Russians for the first time, polling data suggests it has put a dent in Putin’s popularity.


Men like Puchkov and Parilov, according to the accounts given by their friends and relatives, did not receive the minimum 10 days of training that Putin said last week every mobilized man “must undergo” before taking part in combat operations.


Worried about the lack of military training, relatives of soldiers from western Russia’s Bryansk region published a video appeal to Putin over the weekend, asking the president to intervene to bring their mobilized sons and husbands back home.


“Our guys are being sent to the frontlines without training,” said the wife of draftee Ivan Terenkov, who was conscripted two days after mobilization was announced.


“Today I got a call from my son, who told me: ‘Mom, help me, get me out of this hell’,” said a woman who identified herself as the mother of mobilized soldier Nikita Tsepanov.

A lack of official transparency has prompted wives and other relatives of mobilized soldiers to create groups and chats on social media to try and find out more information.


Many users in such groups surveyed by The Moscow Times complained that they hadn't heard from their sons and husbands for weeks.


“Why the hell did they send them to Ukraine on the second day? And why were they left without training?” one woman said in a private chat for soldiers' families on social network VKontakte to which The Moscow Times was given access.


While there is little evidence that friends and relatives of dead soldiers are ready to take to the streets in protest, anger toward officials appears to be on the rise.


“There is growing negative sentiment toward the authorities,” said Solondaev, whose best friend Parilov was killed in the Kherson region.


“People understand what mobilization is for, that people are needed. But they don’t understand why draftees are not provided with water or food and people are not given any information.”


Amid the discontent, the Kremlin has appeared keen to signal that mobilization, as it enters its fourth week, is already drawing to a close.


Putin told reporters Friday that mobilization would run for another two weeks.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Monday that mobilization in the Russian capital was at an end and any outstanding draft papers would no longer be valid.


But the slowing of the pace of mobilization is likely to be of little comfort to the hundreds of thousands families with loved ones on their way to the front.


There has been almost no updates about the whereabouts or health of Alexei Kamashev, a 40-year-old father of six, since he was mobilized from a small village in Russia’s Kirov region, according to his friend and classmate Tatyana Bazhenova.


“His wife is crying all the time. He was given an old push-button mobile phone and called only once. The family doesn't know where he is,” Bazhenova told The Moscow Times.


But locals still apparently support the Ukraine war and mobilization, she said.


“I think the situation will change when coffins start coming back,” said Bazhenova.

Anger Mounts as Russian Draftees Thrown Into Battle Without Training, Equipment - The Moscow Times

4 Russians Arrested in Norway for Breaking Photography Ban

For the third time in a week, police in northern Norway have detained Russian citizens for taking photos in areas where photography is banned.


While the police declined to give any further information, they did confirm that the arrests took place “at a location in Nordland,” a county in northern Norway that is home to several military installations, petroleum- and industrial production sites, and is also home to some of the country’s largest hydroelectric power plants.


Considerable amounts of camera gear and a large number of photos were recovered.


On Friday, a district court remanded the four suspects in custody while the investigation continues.


According to a police statement, the four suspects drove to Norway from Finland. During interrogation, the Russians said that they were tourists.

Last week, police in Kirkenes detained a 50-year-old Russian after a routine stop at the Russian border during which police found two drones in his luggage. The man, who was attempting to exit the country, had hours of film taken at locations across Norway in his possession.


On Friday, a 51-year-old Russian citizen on his way to Svalbard was detained at Tromsø airport for photographing sensitive objects. The police found additional photos of the airport in Kirkenes, including a military helicopter.


The Russian Embassy in Oslo on Friday issued a warning to Russian tourists visiting Norway not to bring expensive photo and video equipment with them, as well as to avoid taking photos of potentially sensitive sites in the country.

4 Russians Arrested in Norway for Breaking Photography Ban - The Moscow Times

Norway says 'foreign intelligence' behind drone flights

Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store on Wednesday accused "foreign intelligence" services of being behind a recent slew of "unacceptable" drone flights in the country, indirectly pointing the finger at Russia.


Earlier Wednesday, Norwegian police had announced the arrest of a Russian -- the son of a close confidant of President Vladimir Putin -- accusing him of illegally flying a drone in the Svalbard archipelago, located in the geopolitically strategic Arctic region.


He was the seventh Russian arrested in the past few days suspected of illegally flying drones or taking photos in restricted areas in the Scandinavian country, which shares a border with Russia in the far north.


"It is obviously unacceptable for foreign intelligence to fly drones over Norwegian airports," Store told Norwegian public broadcaster NRK.


His remarks came just hours after a drone was observed near the airport in Bergen, Norway's second-biggest city, briefly suspending air traffic.


Along with several other Western nations, Norway has forbidden Russians and Russian entities from flying over its territory following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, whether by drone or aircraft.


Breaking that ban is punishable by a three-year prison term while unauthorised photography can merit a one-year sentence.


High alert


A number of mysterious drone flights have been observed in Norway in recent weeks.


Combined with the presumed sabotage on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea, the observations have prompted Oslo to beef up security around strategic infrastructure, in particular its oil and gas offshore platforms.


The latest Russian arrested in Norway was identified as Andrei Yakunin, the son of ex-Russian Railways boss Vladimir Yakunin, who is considered to be close to Putin.


Aged 47 and holding British and Russian nationality, Andrei Yakunin was arrested on Monday in Hammerfest in northern Norway, according to police and court documents.


"The suspect has admitted flying a drone in Svalbard," police official Anja Mikkelsen said.


Located about 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from the North Pole, the Svalbard archipelago is a Norwegian territory strategically located in the heart of the Arctic.


It is home to a relatively large Russian community, and its special legal status enables foreign nationals to mine some of its natural resources.


Yakunin has been placed in custody for two weeks, and drones and electronics in his possession have been confiscated, police said.


On Monday, Russia's embassy in Oslo said "hysteria" in Norway was impacting "ordinary tourists", calling the ban on Russians flying drones "unjustified and discriminatory".

Norway says 'foreign intelligence' behind drone flights

Fuck Russian tourists. Bar them all. From everywhere.

A Special Military Retreat.

From Twitter. "Economic mobilisation" is just a fancy term for russian war criminals nicking others peoples' shit.

The Kremlin's actual decrees go much further than Putin let on in his speech (as usual) on martial law, outlining sweeping new security measures, movement restrictions, vehicle checks and wholesale "economic mobilisation" across much of western & southern Russia

Kyiv Tell Ukrainians to Use Less Energy

Ukraine has urged residents to drastically restrict their electricity consumption starting Thursday to cope with the destruction of power stations by the Russian army as winter approaches.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said after a meeting with energy companies that they were preparing "for all possible scenarios with a view to winter."


In an evening address, Zelensky warned that "Russian terror will be directed at energy facilities", and urged the country to conserve electricity starting at 7 a.m. on Thursday.


He added that the government was "working on the creation of mobile power supply points for critical infrastructure in cities and villages."


Kyiv mayor Vitaliy Klitschko asked residents of the capital not to turn on major electrical appliances, saying "even a small saving and reduction of electricity consumption in each residence will help to stabilise the national energy system's operation."

Ukraine War: Kyiv Tells Ukrainians to Use Less Energy - The Moscow Times

Originally Posted by panama hat

They have been unearthed . . . and more will be. Sadly, the murderous Russians seem to enjoy murdering civilians

It is staggering to think that this is supposed to be a well disciplined army the world should fear. There is obviously no direction from NCOs to the higher ranks. They behave more like a load of gangs with military equipment. I saw an interview with a recently mobilised injured Russian soldier that had spent 6 days from mobilisation to action on the front line. Many of these men are not lasting a week at the front and are now seeing the difference from Russian army propaganda to the harsh reality of being a Russian soldier at the front.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20
Oct 20, 2022 - Press ISW


Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on October 20 that Russian forces mined the dam of the Kakhovka HPP and noted that the HPP holds over 18 million cubic meters of water, which would cause massive and rapid flooding of settlements along the Dnipro River, including Kherson City. Zelensky emphasized that the flooding would impact hundreds of thousands of people. Russian sources, however, continued to accuse Ukrainian forces of shelling the Kakhovka HPP and have widely circulated graphics depicting the flood path in the event of a dam breach. As ISW reported on October 19, Russian sources are likely setting information conditions for Russian forces to blow the dam after they withdraw from western Kherson Oblast and accuse Ukrainian forces of flooding the Dnipro River and surrounding settlements, partially in an attempt to cover their retreat further into eastern Kherson Oblast. Continued Russian preparation for a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka HPP is also likely meant to distract from reports of Russian losses in Kherson Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War