Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by bsnub

Neville?

Although the name Neville Chamberlain is now synonymous with appeasement, largely due to the Munich Agreement, many believe it is grossly unfair. Well, at least those that know a little more history than Private Snubby anyway.

Originally Posted by malmomike77

they wont worry given how long it takes BAES to finish any infrastructure projects on their sites

Where is the sense in producing the ammo and arms in a place where the plants can be reached ?

I do not get that one

Originally Posted by Troy

Sending British troops to Ukraine, as advisors or trainers, can easily be interpreted as intervention by a NATO country and therefore escalation of the war.

Can, but again, why not train them where they are secure ?

Medvedev the Hawk has already been out with his threats

Originally Posted by david44

Also leads to them being targeted intentionally or by accident.
Worst scenario is Donbas Ukrainian snatch squad succeed with taking any prisoner/hostage.
I would imagine they will be key targets. They could be executed and still claim they are POWs as Putin has shown little interest in Geneva conventions

What I heard is that ukranian soldiers who surrender are being treated fairly well.

True or not; executing POWs will prevent any from future surrendering.

Again wouldn't make sense. POWs aren't a great burden on these fronts.

Originally Posted by Troy

Sure as hell, it isn't the best method to get Russia to end this war on favourable Ukraine terms.

Do these "favourable terms" still exist ?

Originally Posted by Norton

An incident was needed to justify sending in combat troops so one was invented. The Tonkin Gulf incident in 1964. Can't have that. Send in the Marines and the war will be over in a few months so Operation Thunder started in 1965. 3500 Marines hit the beaches of Da Nang.

Need I go on?

Not really

Originally Posted by david44

I am not defending Putin ,Russian aggression merely refuting your lack of understanding

Good luck with that, David

Originally Posted by malmomike77

I too think there will have to be a compromise, Russia will not countenance any final position that it cannot sell as some sort of a win. Western support will continue but so will diplomatic pressure to find a solution, Ukraine can kiss goodbye to NATO membership until it accepts a solution that ends this conflict.

If Ukraine gets a NATO invite and accepts it, Russia's invasion has been wasted.

And vice versa for the West.

This shit will have to run its course now

Unless ofcourse, if the West fucks Ukraine over, which probably will be the end-result.

Originally Posted by Troy

those that know a little more history than Private Snubby anyway.

Now, that's what I would call a substantial group of folks

Originally Posted by helge

Now, that's what I would call a substantial group of folks

On this snubject I find myself in accord with the demented Dane, the Fyn boy three and say BIGLY

MAGA

Merkin Armchair Generals Again

Vietnam withdrew left country in chaos
Afghanistan withdrew left country in chaos
Iraq withdrew left country in chaos

Originally Posted by Troy

Although the name Neville Chamberlain is now synonymous with appeasement, largely due to the Munich Agreement, many believe it is grossly unfair. Well, at least those that know a little more history than Private Snubby anyway.

To whet the appetite of those interested, I find Winston Churchill's 1950 speech interesting. Especially since it is Winston Churchill, the very man that laid into Neville Chamberlain in 1938.

This is an extract from Hansard Dec 14 1950, during the Korean War...

...
The declaration of the Prime Minister that there will be no appeasement also commands almost universal support.

It is a good slogan for the country.

It seems to me, however, that in this House it requires to be more precisely defined. What we really mean, I think, is no appeasement through weakness or fear. Appeasement in itself may be good or bad according to the circumstances. Appeasement from weakness and fear is alike futile and fatal. Appeasement from strength is magnanimous and noble and might be the surest and perhaps the only path to world peace.

When nations or individuals get strong they are often truculent and bullying, but when they are weak they become better mannered. But this is the reverse of what is healthy and wise. I have always been astonished, having seen the end of these two wars, how difficult it is to make people understand the Roman wisdom, "Spare the conquered and confront the proud." I think I will go so far as to say it in the original: Parcere subjectis, et debellare superbos. The modern practice has too often been. "punish the defeated and grovel to the strong."

Unhappily, except as regards the atomic bomb—about which I shall have a word to say before I sit down—we are in a very weak position and likely to remain so for several years. As I have repeatedly said, it is only the vast superiority of the United States in this awful weapon that gives us any chance of survival. The argument is now put forward that we must never use the atomic bomb until, or unless, it has been used against us first. In other words, you must never fire until you have been shot dead. That seems to me undoubtedly a silly thing to say and a still more imprudent position to adopt.

...

In the case of Ukraine, NATO is in a very strong position and Russia as been weakened. In such circumstances appeasement is from a position of strength and not from a position of weakness and more likely to lead to peace.

Originally Posted by helge

Where is the sense in producing the ammo and arms in a place where the plants can be reached ?

I do not get that one

Now I get it

Fuck me am I naive

Originally Posted by Troy

Sending British troops to Ukraine, as advisors or trainers, can easily be interpreted as intervention by a NATO country and therefore escalation of the war.

Sunak agrees with you.

The Snapps chap had misunderstood something

It happens

^ Just another Grant Shapps gaffe.

It must be like herding gerbils for Rishi atm.

Originally Posted by david44

That is like a native American telling the blacks to go to Africa, the Whites to Europe and the Jews to Israel

What is ridiculous is that you actually think that Russian-speaking Ukrainians identify as ruzzian. They don't, they identify as Ukrainian and the active resistance movement is proof of that. A proper analogy would be more like Spain invading America to liberate the Spanish speakers there. The ruzzian justification is absolutely ridiculous.

Originally Posted by malmomike77

I too think there will have to be a compromise, Russia will not countenance any final position that it cannot sell as some sort of a win.

You like Troy operate with the false assumption that the ruzzians will call it a day abide by some "agreement", which they won't because they never do. Any appeasement to the invader is just another step closer to WW3. They were delusional enough to think they could take Kyiv in three days, they are delusional enough to think they can take Poland or any other NATO state today.

Russian gas production so far this year has slumped to levels not seen since the 1970s.The country's state energy giant Gazprom said in its latest report that gas production in the first half of 2023 was 179.45 billion cubic meters (bcm). Gazprom added that this represents a year-on-year decrease of nearly a quarter (24.7 percent), and a 26.5 percent drop in gas supplies to the domestic and foreign markets.

Since Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, sanctions have sought to isolate Russia from the global economy, cutting it off from the SWIFT international banking system and freezing some of its foreign exchange reserves.

The invasion also pushed Europe to cut purchases of Russian oil and gas drastically. The continent overcame an energy crunch last winter, in part by reducing energy consumption and finding other suppliers, such as sellers of seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Gazprom report said that the West had contributed to the decrease of the fuel and added that "the adoption in a number of countries of politically motivated decisions aimed at abandoning the import of Russian gas."

Independent Russian-language news outlet Agentstvo reported that Gazprom "has never had such a low production rate in its entire history" and that "the last time there was similar figure was in the Soviet Union in 1978," a year when 372.1 bcm were produced.

"Since then, the production of gas "has only grown," reported Agentstvo. The outlet added how Soviet gas output also included fields in Ukraine and Uzbekistan. Newsweek has emailed Gazprom for further comment.

In February 2023, Putin accused the West of direct attempts to try to hinder and restrain Russia's gas industry but added that Gazprom "is moving forward and launching new projects."

Thomas O'Donnell, a Berlin-based geopolitical analyst, told Newsweek that Putin had cut gas flows, even before the attack in September 2022 on the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Germany—an act of sabotage that the Kremlin denies responsibility for and which is still being investigated.

"That aspect of Putin's planned energy war has backfired. He prepped for a year before the invasion to keep EU storage empty and then have maximum blackmail leverage by selectively cutting and supplying to EU states—but it failed."

O'Donnell said that the increase in supplies of US LNG helped by Norway and Qatar meant that "the EU didn't have to cave in when Putin cut the gas flows."

"So, that business is now lost to Putin," O'Donnell said, although the EU will face higher prices of new global LNG coming online.

"For Moscow, without new, hugely expensive pipelines all the way to China, this huge Russian gas resource will remain a stranded asset," added O'Donnell, a global fellow with the Wilson Center think tank.

Meanwhile, Gazprom's report reinforces predictions by Russian state bank VEB, reported by Reuters in September, that Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to the European Union may fall to 21 bcm, almost two-thirds lower than last year and a six-fold drop from 2021.

VEB said that Russian gas exports to Europe are expected to fall to 15 bcm in 2026. Russia is offering discounted energy exports to so-called "friendly" countries. However, VEB added that infrastructure constraints mean it would not be able to supply enough gas to Asia to make up for the shortfall.

Gazprom head Alexei Miller will join Putin during the Russian president's visit next month to China to boost trade ties and offset losses of gas sales from the lucrative European market, Reuters reported.

Putin is scheduled to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for talks in Beijing where he will attend the third Belt and Road Forum which comes months after Xi's high-profile visit to Moscow in March.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-gas-...levels-1831087

Originally Posted by Troy

Although the name Neville Chamberlain is now synonymous with appeasement, largely due to the Munich Agreement, many believe it is grossly unfair.

It was appeasement, although he used the time won to build up the military machine at a very fast rate which was probably the smart option. This probably gave the UK a chance, which most of us think worked out better than the alternative.

Originally Posted by helge

What I heard is that ukranian soldiers who surrender are being treated fairly well.

You really are a vile little oxygen thief.

Ukrainian prisoners of war say they were tortured at Russian prison - BBC News
Freed Ukrainian POWs describe life in Russian captivity | 60 Minutes - CBS News
Freed Ukrainian P.O.W.s Report Abuses in Russian Captivity - The New York Times
Ukrainian POW Says He Was Treated Like an Animal During Russian Captivity
Russian army officer says he saw Ukrainian POWs tortured - ABC News
https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...isoner-of-war/
https://mwi.westpoint.edu/unseen-sca...hose-released/
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...d-territories/
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/ukrain...eo-2023-06-18/

A Ukrainian prisoner of war, who participated in the battles for Azovstal, in a russian court faces a public trial. It is just horrible to see such inhumane treatment of PoW, which violates all norms and international law. Meanwhile, the cost of holding one russian PoW is about $275 per month to the Ukrainian budget. They are provided with all conditions according to the Geneva Conventions, including three meals a day, which in calorie content corresponds to the nutrition of the Ukrainian army. It is more than the salary of state institution employees, nurses, doctors, and pensions. And our prisoners of war—if they are lucky enough to survive and return—look like they have come back from Nazi concentration camps

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/st...91651039568270

Originally Posted by helge

What I heard is that ukranian soldiers who surrender are being treated fairly well.

True or not; executing POWs will prevent any from future surrendering.

Again wouldn't make sense. POWs aren't a great burden on these fronts.

You really are a vile little oxygen thief

I take it that you picked the "not true" option.

For all I know, you could be right.

(would be a first)

Still; my rationale stands.

No one will fly the white cloth, if they know they are going to get executed.

Reports suggest a number of POWs on both sides have been treated badly. However, there have also been a number of POW exchanges during the war, which is a good sign.

This from Nov 2022, there may be an update somewhere on the web.

Just a moment...

Naturally, both sides will be claiming the other is worse and propaganda will pick out the more extreme cases as if they were the norm.

Recently, I watched a video of a Ukraine drone that continued to bomb soldiers who were obviously hors de combat until all were killed. I also saw summary executions of injured Russian soldiers who were lying injured, again obviously hors de combat, instead of being treated and made POWs.

Good and bad on both sides...

Originally Posted by Troy

Recently, I watched a video of a Ukraine drone that continued to bomb soldiers who were obviously hors de combat until all were killed. I also saw summary executions of injured Russian soldiers who were lying injured, again obviously hors de combat, instead of being treated and made POWs.

And this:

If you see your opponent, read russians, as savages, animals or untermenchen, it is bound to happen.

We have a poster here on TD, who portray russian soldiers as such.

No consideration whatsoever about the posibility of, that the poor fucks would rather stay at home.

Demonisation is better saved for the leaders who caused this disaster.


Pick your own

Good old Vlad, terrified of anyone saying what an arsehole he is.

Former Russian journalist who staged TV protest handed jail sentence in absentia

Former state TV journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who interrupted a live broadcast last year to protest against the war in Ukraine, has been sentenced to eight-and-a-half years in jail in absentia today.
Ms Ovsyannikova was found guilty of "spreading knowingly false information about the Russian armed forces", according to a statement posted by the court on Telegram.
The journalist, 45, fled Russia with her daughter for an unspecified European country a year ago after escaping from house arrest, according to her lawyer, saying she had no case to answer.

Ukraine war latest: Russia 'highly likely' shot down one of its most advanced jets; why Putin invaded Ukraine, according to experts | World News | Sky News

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Former state TV journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who interrupted a live broadcast last year to protest against the war in Ukraine, has been sentenced to eight-and-a-half years in jail in absentia today.

Good for her that she got out in time.

8,5 year for "one unspecified action" seems draconic.


Her "sign stunt" was well done and kudos for that.

Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels From Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks


Pullout represents painful setback for the Kremlin, which seized Crimea in 2014


Russia has withdrawn the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from its main base in occupied Crimea, a potent acknowledgment of how Ukrainian missile and drone strikes are challenging Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.


Russia has moved powerful vessels including three attack submarines and two frigates from Sevastopol to other ports in Russia and Crimea that offer better protection, according to Western officials and satellite images verified by naval experts. The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.


The move represents a remarkable setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose military seizure of Crimea in 2014 marked the opening shots in his attempt to take control of Ukraine. His full-scale invasion of last year has now boomeranged, forcing the removal of ships from a port that was first claimed by Russia in 1783 under Catherine the Great.


The withdrawal from Sevastopol follows a series of strikes by Ukraine in recent weeks that have severely damaged Russian vessels and the fleet’s headquarters.


The immediate military effects of the move are limited, as the ships will still be able to fire cruise missiles on civilian infrastructure such as ports and power grids, naval experts said. Ukraine’s strikes had already broken the fleet’s blockade of Ukrainian ports, denying Russian access to parts of the Black Sea and opening a new corridor for Ukraine to dispatch economically vital grain shipments.


But the withdrawal is a timely boost for Ukraine as its counteroffensive advances more slowly than planned amid heavy losses and political ructions in the U.S. raise questions about funding for Kyiv’s efforts to expel Russian occupying forces.

James Heappey, U.K. minister of state for the armed forces, called the dispersal of the ships “the functional defeat of the Black Sea Fleet” at a conference in Warsaw this week.


Satellite images dated Oct. 1 and provided by Planet Labs showed that the bulk of the naval vessels were moved to Novorossiysk, a Russian port on the Black Sea, said Mikhail Barabanov, a senior analyst at the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank, who reviewed the images. The craft included all three of its operational Kilo-class attack submarines, two guided-missile frigates and one patrol ship. Other vessels, including a large landing ship, a number of small missile ships and new minesweepers were moved to the port of Feodosiya, farther east along the Crimean Peninsula, Barabanov said.


While the move may represent only a temporary measure to safeguard against further Ukrainian strikes, the logistical headache of relocating some of Russia’s heaviest ships underscores the threat of Kyiv’s strike capabilities.

Ukraine has targeted Crimea in recent weeks with cruise missiles that have seriously damaged a Russian submarine and a large landing vessel, as well as the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. Analysts say those strikes likely used cruise missiles provided by the U.K. and France, which have placed restrictions on their use, meaning they can’t hit Novorossiysk.


“The main factor in the decision is that the West until now has forbidden Ukraine from using Western weaponry for strikes within the 2014 borders of the Russian Federation,” said Barabanov. Ukraine successfully struck Novorossiysk using its own locally-produced naval drones earlier this year.

Yoruk Isik, a naval expert and the head of the Bosphorus Observer consulting firm, said that the satellite images showed nets and barges placed at the entrance to the shipyard in Feodosiya, illustrating Russia’s concern about further Ukrainian attacks on the facility.


“They have some security concerns that Ukraine can run a successful naval operation here,” said Isik, who also confirmed that the images showed that the Russian warships had moved from Sevastopol to the other ports.


Since thwarting Russia’s hopes of seizing Odesa at the start of the war in spring 2022, Ukraine has fought back in the Black Sea despite its lack of naval power.

Last year, Ukraine sank the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser Moskva, with a domestically produced antiship missile and recaptured the small but strategic Snake Island in the Black Sea.

Ukrainian commandos have also been conducting raids around Crimea. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, known as HUR, said its forces had landed in Crimea and attacked Russian soldiers.


“There was a battle with the Russian invaders,” Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for HUR, said in a statement to Ukrainian media. He said the Ukrainians had inflicted casualties on the Russians but added, “Unfortunately, there are losses among the Ukrainian defenders.”


Ukraine has intensified its strikes on the Russian fleet in recent months as Russia escalated attacks on Ukrainian ports and civilian ships in the Black Sea. Russia in July withdrew from a Turkish- and United Nations-brokered agreement that had unblocked Ukrainian grain exports from Odesa. The agreement, signed in July 2022, had guaranteed the safety of vessels via a designated maritime corridor, contributing to a military de-escalation in the Black Sea and providing an economic lifeline to Ukraine.


After withdrawing from the grain agreement, Russia threatened to intercept civilian ships heading to Ukraine and launched a series of missile and drone attacks on key Ukrainian port and grain-exporting infrastructure.

Ukraine’s military response has limited the Russian navy’s ability to maneuver in the Black Sea. Ukrainian surface drones rammed a Russian landing ship in the port of Novorossiysk and attacked another ship in open water. Ukraine also used its sea drones to attack an oil tanker that carries jet fuel for the Russian air force and a bridge that links the Russian mainland to Crimea.

A Ukrainian military spokeswoman said Wednesday that Ukraine had pushed back the front line in the Black Sea to at least 100 nautical miles from Ukraine’s shorelines. Russian ships no longer go beyond Cape Tarkhankut, at the western end of the Crimean Peninsula, said Natalia Humeniuk, a spokeswoman for Ukraine’s southern defense forces.


“Currently, ships and boats of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation do not actually sail in the direction of the territorial sea of Ukraine,” she said.


Russia is also constrained in the Black Sea due to a decision by Turkey last year to implement an international treaty that bans warring states from bringing additional warships through the Turkish straits, the strategic chokepoint at the entrance to the region. Turkish officials invoked the 1936 Montreux Convention, barring Russia from bringing ships from its other naval forces around the world.


Ukraine’s breaking of Russian military dominance in the Black Sea could also boost the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine opened up a new maritime corridor for civilian ships transiting to and from Odesa as an alternative to the Turkish- and U.N.-backed agreement. The new shipping lane hugs Ukraine’s coastline, which is protected by the Ukrainian military, before entering the coastal waters of Romania and Bulgaria, which are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.


The first ship to leave via the corridor sailed in August, with a series of ships entering and leaving the shipping lane at an increasing pace in recent days. Another 12 ships were waiting to enter the corridor as of Wednesday, the Ukrainian navy said.

Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels From Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks - WSJ

Hoohoo will be so pleased.

Not doubt this was intended for the Houthi terrorists in Yemen.

Now it will be put to good use.

The United States handed over a batch of confiscated Iranian ammunition to Ukraine.
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on this.
The U.S. government transferred approximately 1.1 million 7.62mm rounds to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The government obtained ownership of these munitions on July 20, 2023, through the Department of Justice’s civil forfeiture claims against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
These munitions were originally seized by U.S. Central Command naval forces from the transiting dhow on December 9, 2022.

The United States transfer confiscated Iranian ammunition to Ukraine - Militarnyi

Originally Posted by misskit

Turkish officials invoked the 1936 Montreux Convention, barring Russia from bringing ships from its other naval forces around the world.

This works both ways.
If Russians want more ships in the black Sea they would have to buld them there

For those unfamiliar with the rationale of the Montreux convention the straits pass right through the heart of a city of 14 million, Istanbul, the only city i 2 continents. A beautiful historic blend well worth visiting. As an aside Thai is offering new regular flights.

I first heard of Novorossiysk when based in Plymouth UK

Plymouth City Council is formally twinned with: Brest, France (1963), Gdynia, Poland (1976), Novorossiysk, Russia (1990) San Sebastián, Spain (1990) and Plymouth, United States (2001).

Originally Posted by Troy

Naturally, both sides will be claiming the other is worse and propaganda will pick out the more extreme cases as if they were the norm.

What a crock of shit, some of the POW's that the ruzzian tortured are your fellow countrymen. Propaganda my ass. War crimes are committed by the ruzzian in almost all the occupied territories. Mass graves, torture chambers, documented in Kherson, Bucha, Izium the list goes on and on.

Originally Posted by helge

We have a poster here on TD, who portray russian soldiers as such.

They are savages, you fucking idiot. Their actions verify it.

Originally Posted by bsnub

you fucking idiot

Well at least I'm no longer 'useful'.

Does that mean that your categorization of poor old little me, as an "collaborator", is also passe' ?


I feel that my SalonFæhig times are soon to be renewed.