Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

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Russia is barely training its troops, probably rendering them incapable of going on the offensive, UK intel says


Russia's lack of advanced training has left its troops mostly unable to advance in Ukraine, UK intelligence said on Thursday.

"Higher-level training" had mostly been put on hold since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, the UK Ministry of Defence said in a daily update.

This had left it struggling in "conducting successful complex offensive operations," per the update — the type of work needed to achieve Russia's aim of conquering Ukraine.

The MOD post linked the lack of training to Russia's decision to keep it units in combat continuously, rather than rotating them out of the most intense fighting, which is when training could take place.

That was in turn linked to Russia's ongoing struggle to recruit enough people to conduct the war.

The MOD cited recent comments by a Russian parliamentary official, Andrei Kartapolov, who said that mobilized personnel would have to serve until the war is over and could not be rotated out.

Russia's most significant effort to increase its manpower began a year ago, with the conscription of around 300,000 Russian reservists.

That move prompted tens of thousands of Russian men to flee the country and prompted wider unrest. Shortly after, the Kremlin said it wouldn't do any further waves of mobilization.

That leaves a major recruitment problem and limited supplies of willing fighters. To fill in the gaps, Russia passed a number of bills in July to widen the pool of males who are eligible to fight.

President Vladimir Putin signed a bill into law to raise the maximum age for male conscription from 27 to 30 years old from 2024 to enable more men to be drafted.

Another measure also increased the age limit for when retired soldier could be called back up, in some cases extending it to 55.

It remains unclear whether those recruitment efforts will translate into meaningful changes in the war.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...k-intel-2023-9

President Joe Biden has told his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will provide a small number of long-range missiles to aid the war with Russia, three U.S. officials and a congressional official familiar with the discussions told NBC News on Friday.

The officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly, did not say when the missiles would be delivered or when a public announcement would be made.

For months, Ukraine has asked for the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, which would give Kyiv the ability to strike targets from as far away as about 180 miles, hitting supply lines, railways, and command and control locations behind the Russian front lines.

Defense officials have said the U.S. does not have a large stockpile of excess ATACMS, which have a bigger payload than traditional artillery, to provide to Ukraine. Also, some in Washington have resisted supplying the weapon, known colloquially as “attack-ems,” out of fear that it would widen the war with Russia.

The congressional official said there was still a debate about the type of missile that would be sent and how many would be delivered to Ukraine. They added that countries in Eastern Europe had already given Ukraine large portions of their weapons stockpiles.

NBC News has approached Russia's defense ministry for comment.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Biden administration has shifted its stance on which weapons it is ready to provide to Ukraine’s military.

The White House initially withheld approval for requests for Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Howitzer artillery pieces, anti-ship missiles and HIMARS systems, but later gave the green light to them being shipped.

The latest move comes just over two months after Biden signed a presidential waiver on the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine, despite concerns from human rights groups and some U.S. allies that their use will lead to more civilian casualties.

The dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, or DPICMs, are surface-to-surface warheads that explode and disperse multiple small munitions or bombs over wide areas — bringing more widespread destruction than single rounds.

Some human rights groups oppose their use because of concerns that unexploded bomblets, or duds, could explode after battle, potentially injuring or killing innocent civilians.

Their use by both sides has been documented during the war in Ukraine, according to Human Rights

In May, America and its allies also agreed to provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

While Ukrainian troops have breached Russia’s heavily fortified first defensive lines in the south and made progress in the east, with winter approaching Kyiv’s military has yet to achieve a decisive breakthrough.

This has contributed to concerns about ongoing allied support, with signs of frustration among even its strongest backers. Poland’s prime minister said this week that his country would no longer send arms to its neighbor, amid a spiraling trade dispute and ahead of national elections.

At the same, Ukraine has intensified a campaign of missile and drone strikes targeting sites deep behind Russian lines. The occupied Crimean peninsula has come under repeated attack, with the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet hit in the latest fiery missile strike on Friday.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/r...ile-rcna116876

• First US Abrams tanks arrive in Ukraine

The first U.S. Abrams tanks pledged to Ukraine have arrived in the country and are being prepared to send into battle, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Monday.

“Good news from Defense Minister [Rustem] Umerov. Abrams are already in Ukraine and are preparing to reinforce our brigades. I am grateful to our allies for fulfilling the agreements!” Zelensky wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Zelensky added that Ukraine is “looking for new contracts and expanding the geography of supply.”

The Pentagon confirmed the tanks arrived in Ukraine, with a spokesperson saying “the mere presence of Abrams tanks serves as a potent deterrent.”

“By having these tanks in their arsenal, the Ukrainian army can more effectively discourage aggressive actions,” the Defense Department spokesperson told The Hill. “We will continue to focus on what we can do to help Ukraine succeed on the battlefield and protect its people.”

_________

Good report. Some highlights

• Deal ‘with the devil’: Meet the Cubans who’ve joined Russia’s war on Ukraine

What César really wanted was to get out of Cuba. A bartender struggling to make ends meet in Havana, he tried last year to reach Miami in a rickety boat but was forced to abandon the attempt when he was intercepted by the U.S. Coast Guard.

He’s now preparing a second escape attempt: with a direct flight to Moscow. His ticket has been paid for by a Russian recruiter but it comes with a hefty price tag nonetheless: As part of the deal, he will have to join the Russian army and fight in Ukraine.

“If this is the sacrifice I have to make for my family to get ahead, I’ll do it,” said César, who turned 19 this year and whose name has been changed to protect his identity.

“You can be a nuclear physicist and still die of hunger here,” he said. “With my current salary I can barely buy basic things like toilet paper or milk.” He said he hoped he would be allowed to work as a paramedic.

One recruit in his late 40s in the Russian city of Tula, whom we will call Pedro, said he was promised a job as a driver “for workers and construction material” but on arrival in Russia was being prepared for combat, weapon in hand.

“We signed a contract with the devil,” he said, recalling the moment he enlisted. “And the devil does not hand out sweets.”

Havana’s crackdown on the recruitment network followed the publication of an interview on YouTube in late August, in which two 19-year-old Cubans claimed they had been lured to Russia for lucrative construction jobs, only to be sent to the trenches in Ukraine. They said they had suffered beatings, been scammed out of their money and were being kept captive.

Cuba’s foreign ministry vowed to act “energetically” against efforts to entice Cubans to join Russia’s war effort, adding: “Cuba is not part of the conflict in Ukraine.”

The change in tone in Havana suggests that the recruitment of Cubans through informal backchannels has “hit a nerve,” said Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House.

“Cuba and the Soviet Union fought side by side in Angola and other places, but for ideological reasons,” he said. “Now it’s boiled down to the ugliest, most mercenary terms, giving it a transactional quality that goes against decades of friendship.”

In November 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree offering fast-tracked naturalization to foreigners who signed up as contract soldiers. “We are all getting Russian citizenship,” one recruit texted this reporter. That week, he and others told POLITICO, some 15 recruits, some of whom had been in Russia for only a couple of months, had been personally handed their passports by the local governor.

For most of the Cubans with whom POLITICO spoke, their involvement with the Russian army began in late 2022, when somebody using the name Elena Shuvalova began posting on social media pages targeting Cubans looking to go abroad or already in Russia.

One post showed a woman in a long skirt in front of a car decorated with a Cuban flag and a “Z,” Russia’s pro-war symbol. In the accompanying text, Shuvalova offered a one-year contract with the Russian army, “help” with the required language exams and medical tests, and “express legalization within two days.”

Pay consisted of a one-off handout of 195,000 rubles (about $2,000) followed by a monthly salary of 204,000 rubles ($2,100). By comparison, Cuba’s average GDP per capita in 2020 was $9,500 per year.

Of the four recruits currently in Russia who shared their stories with POLITICO, three said they had been flown in from Cuba this summer. At home, they worked in hospitality, teaching and construction. One said he had a professional military background. Two others had completed two years of standard compulsory military service.

“When they handed us the uniform and told us to go train I realized this was not about construction at all,” one recruit said. By then, however, he was locked in.

A legal adviser who is well-known within Russia’s Cuban community told POLITICO he has delivered the same tough message to scores of Cuban recruits who have appealed to him for help: “Once you’ve signed the contract, defecting is tantamount to treason.”

When POLITICO spoke to Pedro in Tula, he said he felt trapped by his decision.

“I came here to give my children a better life, not to kill,” he said, breaking down into tears. “I won’t fire a single bullet.”

He added he had considered trying to escape. “But where do I go?”

“No one put a gun to their heads,” Yoenni Vega Gonzalez, 36, a Cuban migrant in Russia, said of his acquaintances in Ukraine. “The contract makes it clear that you’re going to war, not to play ball or camping.”

He said he had been refused the opportunity to join because he does not speak Russian. “Otherwise, I would have gone [to the front] with pride and my head held high.”

“This is the way we found to get out of Cuba,” he said. “No one here wants to kill anyone. But neither do we want to die ourselves.”

________

In other news

Cuba says embassy in DC hit with Molotov cocktails

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Video unavailable

Works for me.

^
Says not available in my country.

Originally Posted by pickel

Says not available in my country.

It is 60 minutes segment from yesterday. Maybe you have a Canadian site for it? Worth a watch if you can find it.

^ An interesting source for you, Arry...

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet and one of Russia's most senior navy officers, was pictured attending a video conference on Tuesday, a day after Ukrainian special forces said they had killed him.

Have you seen the video? He was only shown for like 5 seconds, and he did not move or speak, it looked like there was a white bedsheet behind him. The dude got smoked, he is dead.

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

^ An interesting source for you, Arry...

Why's that then Boo?

^^I thought that video looked weird, too, as though he is propped up on something with a sheet over it.

Originally Posted by misskit

I thought that video looked weird, too, as though he is propped up on something with a sheet over it.

If you think that corpse is alive, then I got a nice bridge to sell you. Look at the background, why is there a Finnish flag there?

The dude is dead, along with at least two other commanding generals and 39 other staff officers. Wounded were reported to be over 100. Keep in mind that this was the Black Sea fleet command headquarters.

Here is the more poignant question...

How the fuck could you be so stupid to have a meeting there after the Ukrainians just blew up your only drydock in the area just a few days ago, destroying a kilo class sub. The ruzzians are just stupid, just like the vatniks that worship them.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Look at the background, why is there a Finnish flag there?

I haven't seen the video, only a still in which he has his eyes shut. No visible injuries. Unconvinced either way.
In the still pic, there are others with white chair covers and also with what might or might not be a Finnish flag. Why? If it was newly filmed there seems no logical reason. If this was from some past meeting surely some Internet warriors would have tracked it down by now.

I cannot get the pic from the BBC to upload onto TD. It is here: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cp...rcled.jpg.webp

Originally Posted by Shutree

In the still pic, there are others with white chair covers and also with what might or might not be a Finnish flag.

I watch a lot of these propaganda videos, as I want to be well aware of the shit that the vatniks will be parroting, they have never been in white chairs before.

Originally Posted by Shutree

If this was from some past meeting surely some Internet warriors would have tracked it down by now.

Verifies my above comment.

Originally Posted by Shutree

I cannot get the pic from the BBC to upload onto TD.

That is the same pic I posted, Eyes closed and appears to be in a hospital bed.

Originally Posted by bsnub

If you think that corpse is alive,

Here is one where his eyes are open and without glasses.

Cunning fuckers those ruskies

As Umerov told Christiane Amandpour: "If Sokolov is dead, then it is good news"

"If"

But BSnib knows. (read hopes)

Originally Posted by bsnub

Look at the background, why is there a Finnish flag there?

Or could it be the argentinian flag, Uruguay ?

Or even better a signal flag, which in my scooldays were widely used in the navies

Know what the signal flag for 'x' looks like ?



(for all I know he could be dead or alive, which is the same BSnubsy knows)

It's also the ensign of the Russia Navy so not surprising to see such a flag in the background.

I wasn't convinced regards the video but only Private Snubby has stated the guy's dead as a fact. Everyone else merely speculates at this stage.

Despite all the bloodshed, destruction of towns and farmland and the loss of war materiel on both sides, little territory has been gained by either side this year, but Russia achieved the largest net increase in territory, according to The New York Times.

In a sobering graphics-based story, the publication reported that ultimately, "the front line, after months of grueling combat and heavy casualties, remains largely unchanged."

"Less territory changed hands in August than in any other month of the war," the newspaper said, based on its analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War. While Ukraine made small gains in the south, Russia took slightly more land overall, mostly in the northeast.

Overall, Russia has gained 331 square miles while Ukraine has gained 143 square miles compared with the start of this year. The Russian net gain of 183 square miles is smaller than either New York City or Kyiv.
The bulk of Ukraine's gains in the counteroffensive have come in a salient between the towns of Robotyne and Verbove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian forces have been shifting reserves there and mounting fierce counterattacks. Complicating matters for Ukraine is the fact that is has to wade through dense lines of minefields and anti-armor trenches and fortifications. Whether it can achieve further breakthroughs this year before bad weather sets in is still very much an open question.

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Has Gained The Most Ground This Year




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Originally Posted by Troy

It's also the ensign of the Russia Navy so not surprising to see such a flag in the background.

It is indeed. I'd Googled Russian flags but this one didn't show up. So no mystery about it.



Ensign of the Russian Navy - Wikipedia

Originally Posted by Shutree

It is indeed.

Still look scottish or finnish to me.

And why was it hung behind a hospital bed ?

Disinformation mak mak