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  1. #151
    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    From where I sit, some kind of military & strategic parity is no bad thing. Keeps the bastards honest (whoever They might be).

  2. #152
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TTraveler View Post
    which means they need to match all the powers in Indo-Pacom.
    ...there's only one indigenous power in this area: China...the balancing power is the US...every other "power" in the area deserves quotations marks...

  3. #153
    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    India and Indonesia, +20 years- and they also enter the equation. It's a happening place!

  4. #154
    Thailand Expat panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    India and Indonesia, +20 years- and they also enter the equation. It's a happening place!
    India maybe only because of China, but that's be land-based. Indonesia? Give it a blanket societal/financial and mentality change and maybe in 50 years

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    India maybe only because of China, but that's be land-based.
    Looking a long way forward, if a much larger Chinese navy can use Gwadar as a springboard and maybe, who knows, a new port in Myanmar, then the Chinese could command the Indian ocean and effectively landlock India, which is without a lot of friendly land neighbours. Add another foothold in the Horn of Africa and China has the Gulf and the Red Sea covered too. No one knows what will happen, still India needs to plan for all the scenarios.

  6. #156
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    the Chinese could command the Indian ocean and effectively landlock India
    ...highly unlikely...

    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    Add another foothold in the Horn of Africa and China has the Gulf and the Red Sea covered too.
    ...fantasy...care for a game of Risk?...

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...highly unlikely...

    ...fantasy...care for a game of Risk?...
    Highly unlikely doesn't mean it will not happen 20 years from now. They might be on the fringes of fantasy, yet I'm sure both sides already have people gaming these sorts of scenarios. I don't lose any sleep over it all.

  8. #158
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    the Chinese could command the Indian ocean and effectively landlock India
    But the rest of the world wouldn't allow this.

    I think the time has passed from where the chinese, Mao, took it for granted that a nuclear war would take place.

    They aren't more suicidal than the rest of us.

  9. #159
    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    I remember on these same pages around 2007, telling people about the projected rise of China, and what was actually happening there- from first hand observation. Few believed it, most believed China was heading for it's 'Next great Collapse'. Maybe they still are.

    Never underestimate Change.

  10. #160
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    China will not invade Taiwan. It would be putting too much at risk, and victory is by no means assured, even with the US on the sideline. If it invaded and was humiliated, it would be the end of the CCP.
    Never underestimate the will of the ROC to defend itself and let's not forget the rather significant combined miltary power of Japan and South Korea. All this coupled with the backing of the US and the economic sanctions from bunches of nation will make it suicide for China to do more than they are now which frankly amounts to fuck all.

    There will be no invasion of Taiwan.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

  11. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    There will be no invasion of Taiwan.
    All your points are spot on as usual, and I have been saying this for some time. ROC would fight to the death, and I truly think it would be a bloodbath for the CCP.

  12. #162
    Custom user Neverna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Busy thread here which as usual has wandered so far off topic it is hardly recognizable as having fuck all to do with nuclear subs in Australia.

    What is clear, the US is making a strategic move to focus 100% on what they percieve as the only threat to US world dominance, CHINA! The French along with the rest of Europe are being thrown under the bus mainly because their use by date is far long ago expired. Russia is no longer a threat to US world dominance nor is the Middle east so makes sense to finally say, "hasta luego baby".

    World dominance requires Bucks and Guns. The sub deal just a part of the guns aspect. Actually a small part when you consider Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN nations.

    Like it or not the US is, for the moment, the numero uno and they intend to remain so.

    Btw, best guess is the subs will be operational in 2042 so a bit early to get too excited.
    I agree with that 100%.

    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    But they won't succeed in subduing China- too much economic momentum, and a population overwhelmingly in solidarity with their government. I'm afraid it's a Bipolar world order pretty much from now, and both powers will have their primary zones of influence. The US will basically remain militarily dominant for the foreseeable future, but it's dominance does not extend to Chinas backyard.


    I frankly do not see much direct military conflict emerging between the nations- depending on where, it would likely only be a No-win situation for one country or t'other. The ongoing battle will be fought with Diplomacy and $$$.


    Oh, the Topic- the aussie subs are just a part of the great game. Doubt I'll even be around when they start sinking, but the domestic political noise over spiralling costs will be an interesting sideshow. Also the squeals from the other services when they realise the bloated naval budget necessitated by these nuclear propelled subs, and ancillary costs, is biting into their own.
    And that, too.

    It wil be a bi-polar world for some time, IMO. The only way the US will continue with world dominance is my becoming more and more agressive towards China and eventualy going to war with China and defeating it. If that happens, it will be very messy indeed, and who actually wins that very messy and costly war will be interesting but that war may be some time off and I/we might not be here to see it.
    • Respecting someone’s provided pronouns is not optional so please use these respectfully or use their name.
    • Don’t make it a big deal if you make a mistake. Correct yourself, apologise genuinely and move on.

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  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Never underestimate the will of the ROC to defend itself and let's not forget the rather significant combined miltary power of Japan and South Korea. All this coupled with the backing of the US and the economic sanctions from bunches of nation will make it suicide for China to do more than they are now which frankly amounts to fuck all.
    Who would doubt it? Haven't we seen enough of such examples (of "combined military powers") ?

  14. #164
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    Telegraph: AUKUS partnership was discussed at G7 summit without Macron’s knowledge

    According to the report, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab assisted in the preparation of the agreement despite the warnings that such agreement will harm the relations with Beijing and Paris

    LONDON, September 19. /TASS/. Details of the AUKUS partnership (Australia, the UK and the US) were discussed at the June G7 summit in Cornwall, but French President Emmanuel Macron was unaware of that, The Sunday Telegraph report says.

    According to the report, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab assisted in the preparation of the agreement despite the warnings that such agreement will harm the relations with Beijing and Paris.

    The Summit that took place on June 11-13 was attended by leaders of the UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, the US, France and Japan, as well as leaders of Australia, India, South Korea and South Africa invited as guests. According to The Sunday Telegraph, all documents on AUKUS after the summit were classified as "top secret".

    On September 16, Australia, the UK and the US announced the new AUKUS security partnership. Under the agreement, Australia plans to construct eight nuclear-powered submarines and equip its forces with US-made cruise missiles; the made Canberra void its defense contract with France - the largest in its history.

    In response to this development, France immediately withdrew its ambassadors from the US and Australia but not from the UK. According to French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves le Drian, Paris made this decision, "knowing London’s policy of constant opportunism.".

    Telegraph: AUKUS partnership was discussed at G7 summit without Macron’s knowledge - World - TASS

  15. #165
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    And another problem for Macron:

    Macron cancels invitation to Parmelin (Swiss president for this year)

    A visit by Guy Parmelin to France, which has been planned for six months, falls through the water. President Emmanuel Macron does not want to see the Swiss head of state.

    French President Emmanuel Macron is not only angry with the US and the loss of a submarine deal with Australia that was believed to be safe. Macron is also mad at Switzerland because Federal Bern has decided to procure the American stealth jet F-35 for around six billion francs. For about half a year, Switzerland and France had planned a presidential visit by Federal President Guy Parmelin to Paris. But nothing will come of this working meeting, which should have taken place in November.

    Macron doesn't want to see Parmelin. And not only that: Paris does not want to allow any high-level bilateral contacts with federal Bern until next summer. The unusual step not only strains relations between the two countries, but also those between Switzerland and the EU, whose Council presidency Macron will take over in the first half of 2022. The French head of state will play first fiddle in the EU's Council of Ministers, the decision-making body of the member states, for six months.

    Wegen Kampfjet-Entscheid – Macron ladt Parmelin aus | Tages-Anzeiger

  16. #166
    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klondyke View Post
    LONDON, September 19. /TASS/. Details of the AUKUS partnership (Australia, the UK and the US) were discussed at the June G7 summit in Cornwall, but French President Emmanuel Macron was unaware of that, The Sunday Telegraph report says.
    Presumably ditto for Japan, Canada, Germany and Italy. Are we to presume that the reason Australia was invited to the meeting was to facilitate this 'undertaking' with secret meetings within the three countries. The French have a perfect right to be pissed at the Americans. What a bloody dog and pony show. Unbelievable. I wonder whether our brilliant team at the State Department has figured in to the equation that the French may not, on some issues, back the "western bloc' in the Security Council ?


  17. #167
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    US will share nuclear submarine technology with Australia in new defense partnership-aukus-jpg

  18. #168
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    What a screaming cockwomble Simon Jenkins is, but consider the source.....

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/20/boris-johnson-military-alliance-pacific-reckless-post-imperial-nostalgia-aukus

    took all those words to arrive at the last sentence and his real agenda
    Last edited by malmomike77; 21-09-2021 at 01:58 AM.

  19. #169
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by russellsimpson View Post
    I wonder whether our brilliant team at the State Department has figured in to the equation that the French may not, on some issues, back the "western bloc' in the Security Council ?
    As I've already pointed out, the cheese eating surrender monkeys are not to be trusted, so fuck them.

  20. #170
    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    Jenkins makes a very good point actually-

    Crewed submarines are approaching obsolescence, near useless in an age of “transparent” oceans and underwater drones. Like tanks, they drip with cost, inefficiency and a craving to fight outdated wars.

    When living in the Darkside, I became a friend of one of the very first generation of ROV operators. A huge growth industry, with rapid technological development.
    When the first of our expensive new toys is due to first hit the water and sink in the 2040's, manned subs may well be obsolete. Look at how aerial drones have developed.
    And considering several of our current subs sit idle because we don't have enough trained personnel to man them, sounds a good thing for Australia...

  21. #171
    Thailand Expat panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    As I've already pointed out, the cheese eating surrender monkeys are not to be trusted, so fuck them.
    Its quite obvious who isn't to be trusted and it isn't the French, irrespective of your knee-jerk hissy-fits

    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    And considering several of our current subs sit idle because we don't have enough trained personnel to man them, sounds a good thing for Australia...
    Its just another clusterfuck by the Anglo-fuckwits . . . The US has their world domination 'needs' while the UK is desperate for someone/anyone to follow while Australia feels all alone far far away

  22. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    My last pontification-
    Is that a promise?

  23. #173
    Thailand Expat Saint Willy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neverna View Post
    The only way the US will continue with world dominance is my becoming more and more agressive towards China and eventualy going to war with China and defeating it
    A proxy war or a series of proxy wars is more likely. I cannot see a full scale, traditional war against USA & China ever being fought.

  24. #174
    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    ^^ No, monkeybrains. Someone has to try and make up for your dearth of grey matter.

  25. #175
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    When the first of our expensive new toys is due to first hit the water and sink in the 2040's, manned subs may well be obsolete
    No doubt so another deal will be struck to replace the obsolete subs. This is just the way the much talked about "military industrial complex" operates. Make a sale on what you have while developing the next generation replacement. Matter of fact, the way all enterprises work. A sort of planned obsolesence just like we see in the smart phone industry.

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