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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Potential impending rubber "apocalypse"

    Potential impending rubber "apocalypse"-rubber-trees-jpg
    Credit

    Rubber is a critical raw material needed for car tires, personal protective equipment such as masks and gloves, and many more everyday products. Anytime you’re going anywhere, you’re using rubber. Now, supply chain disruptions have thrown the rubber industry into a tailspin.


    “We could be on the cusp of a rubber apocalypse,” Ohio State University professor Katrina Cornish told CNBC.
    Rubber producers are facing climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, a destructive fungus and the fight for shipping containers.

    The global economy remains dependent on Asia for 90% of the natural rubber supply. For example, the U.S. imported $140 million worth of natural rubber in March 2021 alone, according to Census data.


    The global natural rubber market was valued at nearly $40 billion in 2020, and demand for rubber is expected to increase. One analysis predicts the natural rubber market could be worth nearly $68.5 billion by 2026.

    One reason for the increased demand? Car tires.


    Good explanation video embedded in the story ... What the impending rubber '''apocalypse''' means for the U.S. economy


    Time to buy those tyers and plant those trees?
    Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago ...


  2. #2
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    plant those trees?
    Around here, farmers are ripping out the rubber and oil palm oil trees down and planting Durian trees.

    Less nightly work and higher financial returns.

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat
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    That's Thailand for ya, Folks.

  4. #4
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Hardly limited to Thailand.

    It's what happens when the price of a crop goes through the floor.

  5. #5
    Thailand Expat

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    Whatever they switch to produces a glut, because the copy each other.

    Rubber plantation husbandry is particular, and cutting it is hard work requiring skills that have been lost when the price crashes. It’s hard work, and the market can change quickly. The trees don’t produce rubber until they are 7 years old, then they only last 30 years before the yield is no longer viable.

  6. #6
    กงเกวียนกำเกวียน HuangLao's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Around here, farmers are ripping out the rubber and oil palm oil trees down and planting Durian trees.

    Less nightly work and higher financial returns.
    Appears to be the trend for quite some time now - replacing rubber and palm oil for something more stable and sustainable.
    Or....anything that the plantation farmers have a little more control of the market.

  7. #7
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    the price of a crop goes through the floor
    The OP suggests rubber demand is growing, which suggests higher not lower prices.

    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    because the copy each other.
    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    Appears to be the trend for quite some time now
    They see what their cash crop, cup rubber, is priced today at ฿43/kg and compare it to the exploding Durian prices and demand, China is buying container loads from Thailand, which is less labour-intensive.

    "China imported 575,000 tons of durians worth 14.7 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) from Thailand in 2020, up 78 percent year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand.

    Currently, Thai durians are sold at 50 yuan per kilogram". (฿250/kg wholesale).

    China importing $2.2 billion durian from Thailand in 2020 - Global Times


    Today's Thai cup rubber wholesale:

    สมาคมยางพาราไทย ::: THE THAI RUBBER ASSOCIATION

    According to Phat'S NZ post, Durian is 45 NZD/kg retail there. That's ฿1,000/kg.

    Early this year my FIL was selling Durian at ฿150/kg wholesale. Now down to ฿80/kg.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  8. #8
    I'm in Jail

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    Well considering Durian takes between 4 to 10 years to bear fruit, I'd be careful about changing now, I'm sure the multi national companies have it all worked out, farmers will get the market price if changing now or the last couple of years, they've missed the boat.

  9. #9
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Well considering Durian takes between 4 to 10 years to bear frui
    My 3 year old trees produced fruit this year. Only 15 or so, but they were delicious.

    Properly tending and following official guidelines is the trick. There would have been many more, but overzealous watering caused many to drop.

    Early to market is the key.

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