Thread: The World Doesn’t Want Beijing’s Fighter Jets

Fighter jet exports represent a unique combination of hard and soft power. If a country can sell fighter jets abroad, that means it can attract customers for sophisticated weapons that can sell for upwards of $100 million, which in turn proves that the country has appeal as a strategic partner. It’s no surprise, then, that Beijing has hankered to become a major fighter exporter for some time.

As China’s global stature has grown, many expected that its weapons exports would reflect its place on the world stage. Yet after decades of trying, that simply hasn’t happened. Last month’s confrontation with the Philippines, where Chinese naval vessels entered Philippine waters without authorization, may indicate the crux of the problem—and this failure may well illustrate a key weakness for China. Essentially, few want to partner up with Beijing.

For decades, China’s growth as a combat aircraft export power has seemed inevitable. In April 1997, Interavia, a once-influential trade journal, predicted, “China Poised to Overtake Russia” and Beijing would “well outstrip Russia in a decade or so as the combat aircraft provider to the developing world.” Nine years later, Aviation Week & Space Technology opined that “China may emerge as the bargain-basement provider of combat aircraft packages for the export market.”

The numbers clearly show that nothing of the sort happened. Between 2000 and 2020, China exported just $7.2 billion worth of military aircraft, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute arms transfers database. Meanwhile, the United States stayed safely on top, exporting $99.6 billion, and Russia stayed in the second slot at $61.5 billion. Even France’s aircraft exports doubled China’s, at $14.7 billion. And there were few signs of upward momentum for China.

Chinese fighters also didn’t break out of their relatively small core market. In the 1990s, their biggest customers were Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, North Korea, and a few African countries. That remains the list today. In 2018, a Center for Strategic and International Studies report pointed out that, since 2010, 63.4 percent of China’s conventional weapons sales have gone to Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

This feeble sales record has nothing to do with the aircraft themselves. China has made great strides in improving its state-owned aerospace technology base, particularly in the military realm. China makes quality products, or at least products that are on par with the planes that the old Soviet Union succeeded in exporting in great quantities to various countries.

The J-10, a fighter that Beijing unveiled in the 2000s, has operating characteristics—including speed, range, payload, weapons capabilities, and sensors—that are fully in line with U.S., Russian, and European aircraft on the export market. The latest version, the J-10C, has an active electronically scanned array radar, as most modern Western fighters do. Yet not one has sold overseas, even as China has been trying to peddle the J-10 to its biggest single military aircraft customer, Pakistan, and other countries for more than 15 years. (Pakistan is sticking with older technology from China with the JF-17, partly because it’s all the country can afford, and partly because it’s been assembling it domestically.) Other Chinese combat aircraft have had similar fates.

New Chinese fighters with stealth airframe features, which help them avoid radar detection, such as the J-20 and FC-31, have also come on the market in recent years, but with no rumors of any international interest. Most likely, these planes are too expensive for China’s core combat aircraft customer group. But that doesn’t explain the export failure of all the other, older models.

The best explanation of this failure is China’s foreign policy. The Philippines is a perfect illustration of why China’s fighter export ambitions have stalled. For five years, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has tried to steer the country away from the United States and toward China. Also, until a few years ago, the country had never purchased a new fighter jet—the limited defense budget could only afford hand-me-down jets from the United States.

The Philippines is cash-strapped, nonaligned, and eager to assert a pro-China path: the perfect recipe for a Chinese combat aircraft export market breakthrough in a key regional nation. If the country eventually purchased a few squadrons of Chinese fighters while simultaneously demanding the U.S. Navy keep away from its former Philippine bases for good, as it moved to do in February 2020, the world would have regarded this as a major Chinese foreign-policy coup.

Now, that doesn’t seem likely. Last month, tensions between the two countries in the South China Sea heated up to a simmer, with Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Teodoro Locsin Jr. tweeting, “You’re like an ugly oaf forcing your attentions on a handsome guy who wants to be a friend; not to father a Chinese province.”

The Philippines has instead found another path for its combat aircraft needs. In 2015, it took its first Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50s. Buying these fighters allowed the Philippines to move away from reliance on U.S. weaponry. But these aircraft are heavily based around U.S. technologies, including General Electric engines and Lockheed Martin design assistance. Ultimately, the country stayed in the U.S.-aligned air power camp.

It isn’t just the Philippines. China’s other neighbors don’t like China, with predictable ramifications for the fighter sales business. India, a longtime Russian fighter customer with a strong interest in sourcing from multiple countries, should also be a potential J-10 customer but is instead facing another nasty border confrontation with China in the Himalayas. India is increasingly looking to Western countries for military equipment and won’t even consider China, whose status as a possible adversary rules it out as a weapons provider. Ditto for Vietnam, with its worsening maritime dispute with China. Malaysia and Indonesia are also too wary of Beijing’s ambitions to ever consider acquiring a Chinese fighter.

This pattern of failure speaks to more than just a problem with sharp elbows.

First, it shows a lack of commercial soft power. Fighter sales often involve a trade relationship, since they tend to include commercial offsets—or economic sweeteners such as market access or technology transfer that are designed to mitigate some of the expense of a weapons package. But China’s relatively closed economic system means that potential customers with export-oriented economies have little to gain, since China wants to be a globally dominant export manufacturer and certainly doesn’t want to increase its intake of imported manufactured goods. If anything, China has historically been a competitor with other emerging markets for investment and foreign firms’ factories.

But fighter exports are more than just a popularity contest. They also reflect the strength of a supplier country’s alliances and help strengthen strategic relationships. Military export sales improve program production, and increased output can make production less costly (a phenomenon known as economies of scale). For example, international sales for the United States’ F-35, which is coming to dominate the high end of the export fighter market, have been nearly as large as U.S. domestic purchases. Most importantly, in the event of a crisis or war, customers can help the selling country with logistics and support for its own fleet through, for example, spare parts, weapons, and upgrades. Operating the same aircraft also opens the door to harmonized operations and easier communication.

Yet Beijing lacks appeal as a strategic partner in the region. It has little interest in preserving the status quo in Asia, few qualms about territorial expansion, and next to no record of supporting allies in times of crisis. The region’s other powers see little to gain from a strategic relationship with China, which would be inextricable from purchasing its fighter jets.

Indeed, the big markets in the region are Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, and Singapore. All source their military aircraft almost exclusively from the United States; four of them are partners or customers of the F-35 program. And all would play a crucial role in any conflict with China.

While Beijing struggles to find any takers, Washington’s military export standing is poised for further growth. India, in the past decade, has started purchasing more than $12 billion worth of U.S. P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, C-17 and C-130J military cargo transports, and AH-64 and CH-47 military helicopters. The first U.S. fighter sale to India is quite likely in the coming decade. There have even been discussions about possible U.S. military aircraft sales to Vietnam, and in recent years Hanoi departed from its Russian purchases and actually ordered a few Airbus maritime patrol aircraft from Spain.

Meanwhile, in the event of a regional conflict between China and other countries, China can count on air power cooperation and support from Myanmar, Laos, and North Korea—countries that would either not be involved in such a conflict or would not play a material role in the outcome.

The most important conclusion from all of this is that building good aircraft and other weapons won’t help your defense industry—or enhance your strategic power—if you don’t have friends.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/30...craft-exports/

The trouble with knocking off other peoples shit is that it takes decades of practise to get it right.

You only have to look at post-WWII Japan and the rust buckets they used to churn out.

It will be a long time before the chinkies can make their own complex devices that don't have bits falling off them the minute they leaves the factory.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

The trouble with knocking off other peoples shit is that it takes decades of practise to get it right.

You only have to look at post-WWII Japan and the rust buckets they used to churn out.

It will be a long time before the chinkies can make their own complex devices that don't have bits falling off them the minute they leaves the factory.

I take it you realise the Chinese have partnered up with the Russians to build aircraft? huh

China will soon rule the air as well.

Originally Posted by Chico

I take it you realise the Chinese have partnered up with the Russians to build aircraft? huh

China will soon rule the air as well.

Well fuck me that's an endorsement innit.

perfect for you larry

You certainly fucking are if you believe that shit.

what shit are you referring too, the Chinese and Russians working together and selling to each other and working on projects in space and aircraft to compete with the west?

Some great points there. Chinese bully boy diplomacy has moved countries further away. Australia, a long time US ally has been open for a while now to increasing US troop levels in Northern Australia. Chinese tactics has made the Australian population even more amenable to US bases on Australian soil as U.S military forces have maintained friendly relations with the local population in Australia.
China has missed a great oportunity to use its soft power to help further its' goal to decouple the USA from the Asian region especially in the Trump era and has halted any possibility of countries like Australia of taking a more neutral stance.
They had a great opportunity in the Phillippines to get the gullible Duterte on board and have now put Duterte in a position which will make that politically impossible, certainly in the long term when he is forced to leave office under the constitution (not withstanding his daughter running).
Australian/Chinese relations are so bad currently that any Australian political party seen to be "cozying up" to the Chinese would get a harsh response at the ballot box.
There must be Chinese diplomats silently kicking themselves at the lost opportunity, for fear of a holiday at some "re education" camp. Western companies should now be re locating out of Hong Kong. The Chinese must learn their is a price to pay.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

There must be Chinese diplomats silently kicking themselves at the lost opportunity

Much like the Trumpanzees revelled in his bully boy antics on the world stage, I don't think those Chinese diplomats care.

Originally Posted by Chico

I take it you realise the Chinese have partnered up with the Russians to build aircraft? huh

Another moron chimes in. The Russians are not sharing their tech with China at all. The Chinese have reverse engineered some of it, but Russia has made sure that China doesn't get its best bits of tech, especially when it comes to jet engines, an area where the Chinese lag far behind.

Whatever the reasons, the world certainly doesn't need another arms manufacturing country peddling killing machines to tinpot countries that cannot afford it, as often as not for the purpose of killing their own citizens. The US, UK, France and Russia are already well established as the premier merchants of death. They can keep it- it hardly reads well on their resume'.

Stick to building roads, bridges, ports etc and investing in manufacturing overseas China. That is soft diplomacy at it's finest and most sustainable, imo.

**BUUURRRRPPP** (you know who you are LOL)

Smartest thing you have said in a long time.

Last week, the Chinese Air Force sent its largest aerial flotilla to-date toward the coast of Taiwan, entering the island's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)—a section of airspace over land and water that countries typically use for preventative national security purposes. While the flight was provocative, it did not violate Taiwanese air space.

Still, China's message of intimidation was clear: A combined force of 28 fighters, bombers, airborne control, and electronic warfare aircraft lifted off from bases on the mainland and crossed the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday.

China's aerial task force included 14 J-16 fighter jets; six J-11 fighters; four H-6 bombers; two KJ-500 airborne early warning and control planes; one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft; and one Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense published a map on June 15, showing all of the planes originating from a common direction (see below). This corresponds to the Liangcheng Longyan Guanzhi air base in the People's Liberation Army Air Force's (PLAAF) Eastern Theater Command.

The J-11 and J-16 fighter jets, as well as the KJ-500 control planes, flew straight out to the South China Sea and straight back. These probably functioned as a quick-reaction force for the other planes, which continued on to fly an L-shaped route around Taiwan before returning to the mainland. Only four J-16 fighters accompanied the bombers, electronic warfare, and anti-submarine warfare planes.

The planes entered Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone, according to the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of China (ROC). But this is not the same as entering Taiwan's airspace—under international law, there's nothing illegal about entering an ADIZ. Air forces typically set these zones up to mark the point at which they should become alert to nearing aircraft. Ideally, air forces want to know information about planes nearing their ADIZ in advance, including flight plans.




Despite talk of the Chinese Air Force becoming more skilled, this flight didn't show it. There are several air bases in the area facing Taiwan, but apparently the PLAAF needs all of the planes taking part in the operation to take off from one location—Liangcheng Longyan Guanzhi. This suggests that Chinese Air Force commanders keep a tight hold on their pilots and that there's a ton of top-down direction for what amounts to fairly elementary flying.

Second, PLAAF's flight tracks are not all that impressive. The fighters flew straight out and straight back, creating essentially a straight line in the sky. The rest of the planes flew a furtive L-shape before returning, not even circling the small island.

To get an idea of how unimpressive the Chinese Air Force's flying was, let's look at this map from 2011. This is a typical flight that Russian Aerospace Force Tu-95 bombers take to circumnavigate the Japanese home islands. Although old, this flight profile is not at all unusual. Russia occasionally sorties "Bear" bombers from Ukrainka Air Base near Belogorsk to send a message to the Japanese, and it's really solid flying. The big, lumbering bombers hug Japanese airspace to the point where you could easily determine what they flew around just by looking at the shape of the flight track.




So, what would actually be impressive for China? Flying around Taiwan for starters. Or, flying out from multiple bases, then rendezvousing in the sky, before proceeding on with the mission. Flying from multiple bases and then meeting on the far side of Taiwan—creating a giant aerial pincer—would also show PLAAF's ability to coordinate different air units from different bases under a common headquarters.

Although the Chinese Air Force attempted to send an intimidating signal to Taiwan, the maneuver only really highlighted its shortcomings. If these flights illustrated the peak skill of Chinese air power, China's neighbors—and the United States—don't really have much to worry about. Yet.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...ers-to-taiwan/

Don't tempt them.

Originally Posted by sabang

Don't tempt them.

Tempt them to do what? They are proving over and over just how far they have to go. They may have stolen technology, but they have shit engines, their pilots suck, and they have primitive command and control.

Starting to look like an attempted invasion of Taiwan would look like the '79 failed invasion of Vietnam when the Viets gave them a nasty beating.

Originally Posted by sabang

Whatever the reasons, the world certainly doesn't need another arms manufacturing country peddling killing machines to tinpot countries that cannot afford it, as often as not for the purpose of killing their own citizens.

You mean like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Algeria?

No, those places are beacons of light in an otherwise turmoiled word. Saudi and Israel.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Pakistan, Bangladesh and Algeria?

Originally Posted by sabang

No, those places are beacons of light in an otherwise turmoiled word.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Another moron chimes in. The Russians are not sharing their tech with China at all. The Chinese have reverse engineered some of it, but Russia has made sure that China doesn't get its best bits of tech, especially when it comes to jet engines, an area where the Chinese lag far behind.

Snubbles The Russians have been selling technology to the Chinese since the 1950s, The Chinese have now surpassed the Russians in jet fighter technology, They also have 4 of the Top ten jet fighters in the world.

Originally Posted by Chico

The Chinese have now surpassed the Russians in jet fighter technology, They also have 4 of the Top ten jet fighters in the world.

Originally Posted by Chico

Snubbles The Russians have been selling technology to the Chinese since the 1950s, The Chinese have now surpassed the Russians in jet fighter technology, They also have 4 of the Top ten jet fighters in the world.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Where do you get this shit?

Originally Posted by sabang

No, those places are beacons of light in an otherwise turmoiled word.

Because they buy their weapons from the chinkies?

The Chinese are greedy. Every country has their strengths and weaknesses. And aviation is not one of the China's strengths. But that doesn't stop them from pouring boat loads of money and IP theft into aviation, to try and take over yet another sector. Everyone was wowed by the J-20 and they made big claims about how it was in service already. Then they go and buy 25 su 35's from Russia and deployed them straight to the South China sea.

They should stick to what they are good at , which is consumer goods. And leave aviation to the av powers. Which are the US and Russia.

The J-10 is a copy of the Israeli Lavi with a Russian engine



The JF-17 is a modernized Mig 21.