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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    America's biggest boom since 1946

    America’s financial titans are coming to a consensus: We are on the early edge of the biggest economic boom since World War II, with the promise of years of growth after the privation of the pandemic.


    Why it matters: They might be wrong, but all point to the same data — this expansion will be kickstarted by trillions in spending from presidents Trump and Biden, the Fed's easy money, and piles of cash that consumers and companies accumulated during the COVID shutdown.


    This is likely to be a global phenomenon: Biden administration spending will have ripple effects around the world, and overseas bank accounts also have grown during COVID.


    Governments' actions in response to the pandemic raised global GDP growth by a full six percentage points, estimates the IMF, adding that "the global growth contraction last year could have been three times worse than it was."


    Still, total output shrank so much — by a stunning 3.3% in total — that there's now an unprecedented amount of slack in the global economy. In other words: The world has more potential upside than ever.


    The biggest names in finance are making increasingly bullish predictions. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday in his annual shareholder letter, closely watched on Wall Street: “This boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.”


    Goldman Sachs last month raised its U.S. growth projection for this year to 8%, which would constitute the largest economic expansion in generations.


    In India, the growth rate will reach a torrid 12.5% this year, per the IMF's latest projections, to be followed up with world-beating 6.9% growth in 2022.


    The biggest risk to future growth remains the pandemic. The U.S. is still far from achieving herd immunity, and most of the rest of the world is further away still, with widespread vaccine access still a pipe dream for most poorer countries.


    For the time being, vaccine optimism is strong. But future outbreaks, lockdowns, and variants all have the potential to derail economic recovery.


    https://www.axios.com/global-economy...3c2c1353d.html

  2. #2
    Im bored AF Backspin's Avatar
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  3. #3
    Thailand Expat Slick's Avatar
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    Anybody with 2 brain cells to rub together could see the economic boom waiting to happen once countries stopped punching themselves in the balls over covid.

    I’ve been stuffing my retirement accounts and taxable accounts with every available dollar I have to get in on the upswing. Only question now is when this boom starts its decline.

    Gotta chuckle at the Biden plugs in there tho, the fool.

  4. #4
    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    I have a dissenting opinion on these matters.

    Will Joe Average residing in the suburbs of Peoria see the full benefits, in fact will he ever be able to re-open his small shop or even secure paid employment. Will the gap between the wealth of the working stiff and the top few percentile of the rich decrease?

    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    For the time being, vaccine optimism is strong.
    Is it now? Where has your head been pal?


  5. #5
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    I can’t read the future, but I can say what is happening now is amazing. Home sales are through the roof. Everywhere. Even out here in the countryside.

    Bidding wars for existing houses what people offer much more than the asking price.

    It’s a 25 minute drive to any kind of shop from here and there is a company out of Atlanta which has bought up all the existing one acre lots in this area and building eight new houses.


    A friend of mine works for a foundation that distributes government money for people who find themselves unable to pay their rent, utilities, or food. They were inundated when COVID first struck. Since the second government stimulus check, they don’t have calls anymore. They are worried they will lose their government funding because no clients!

  6. #6
    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    Happy to hear the Misskit.

    (Irrational Exuberance once again?)

    Anyway, I remain comfortable in my general pessimism.

  7. #7
    Chinese spy
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    The problem is, it is all fuelled by a currency that possesses no more intrinsic value than Bitcoin. Will there be a day of reckoning, or were rational economists wrong all along?

  8. #8
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    The world has more potential upside than ever.
    ...indeed...Bloomberg guests are nearly unanimous in their optimism. However, company earnings and unemployment data will have to support their opinions or stocks will fall. Low inflation means the Fed will keep money cheap and available for the rest of this year and probably much of next...S&P 5000 by year's end is not necessarily a pipe dream...
    Majestically enthroned amid the vulgar herd

  9. #9
    Thailand Expat Saint Willy's Avatar
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    What about all those people who lost their jobs and businesses? Will they magically bounce back? In countries that experienced long lockdowns many people discovered they saved more money by not going out often or travelling, will that consumer sentiment immediately disappear? Singapore airlines, as one example, have parked half their fleet in the Australian desert with no plans to retrieve them before 2023... that’s a lotta flights, airports, hotels, conference rooms that won’t get filled around the globe.

    I’m not sure about the conclusions of this article.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    Goldman Sachs last month raised its U.S. growth projection for this year to 8%
    "Goldman Sachs"... who would not believe them? That's why the best economy czars have been always born at Goldman Sachs...

  11. #11
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealKW View Post
    What about all those people who lost their jobs and businesses? Will they magically bounce back? In countries that experienced long lockdowns many people discovered they saved more money by not going out often or travelling, will that consumer sentiment immediately disappear? Singapore airlines, as one example, have parked half their fleet in the Australian desert with no plans to retrieve them before 2023... that’s a lotta flights, airports, hotels, conference rooms that won’t get filled around the globe.

    I’m not sure about the conclusions of this article.
    Funnily enough I was talking to an Aussie aircraft engineer over a few beers last night. He said the Singapore planes are in APAS near Alice Springs, but Qantas have parked theirs in the Victorville, California.

    He said to take an A380 out of long term storage and get it ready to fly is an eight month process!

  12. #12
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealKW View Post
    What about all those people who lost their jobs and businesses? Will they magically bounce back?
    Add to that most companies have now built and budgeted for the infrastructure to conduct international meetings remotely, and proven that it works. They will see no value in sending people around the world just to have a natter when they can do it on Zoom/Teams/Gotomeeting, etc. The airlines will have a permanent haircut in premium cabin traffic and hotels will lose that business permanently, too.

  13. #13
    CCBW JPPR2's Avatar
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    I left a wad of money on the table when I moved my personal retirement acct to a cash position. If I had stayed in when Covid took off, I'd be up another couple hundred grand + around now. Such as it is. I went conservative being I didn't want to risk my big nest egg. IMHO better safe then sorry. My PRA is really what my retirement is planned on, not SS. SS was always planned to be my play money. Still a few years off before I can even apply.

    I guess the upside is, I am still employed and do not see myself calling it a career anytime soon. Covid has really changed the business landscape and working remotely is quite productive and in some cases even more due to the personal freedom one has. No More office BS, No more commute nonsense, no more 8 to 5 (Not that anyone really works that anyway). No more sitting through management meetings listening to people drone on and on over their 30 page PPS update. So I will just keep banking Freedom Chips for my wife and I.

  14. #14
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    They will see no value in sending people around the world just to have a natter when they can do it on Zoom/Teams/Gotomeeting, etc
    And from a green credentials perspective where cos are trying to sell how climate friendly they are, sending poeple around on planes doesn't help either.

  15. #15
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealKW View Post
    What about all those people who lost their jobs and businesses? Will they magically bounce back?
    ...folks in low-end service jobs will probably return to work fairly quickly when the economy recovers and herd immunity is more of a reality...entrepreneurship being a disease of the blood, I imagine many of those who lost businesses will restart...but yes, many will suffer from the dislocation: 'twas ever thus...

  16. #16
    In Uranus
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slick View Post
    Gotta chuckle at the Biden plugs in there tho, the fool.
    Well since the boom started under the Obama administration and your shitbird president rode that wave right into a Biden presidency the plugs are relevant.

    A record 75 straight months of job growth under Obama

    December jobs report: Obama economy created over 2 million new jobs in 2016

    Two Charts Show Trump's Job Gains Are Just A Continuation From Obama's Presidency

    America's biggest boom since 1946-79n1lhq-png

    America's biggest boom since 1946-q0n8zwl-png

    Two Charts Show Trump's Job Gains Are Just A Continuation From Obama's Presidency

  17. #17
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    Home sales are through the roof. Everywhere. Even out here in the countryside.

    Bidding wars for existing houses what people offer much more than the asking price.
    They should wait until June/July.

    Once the evictions start the supply will rocket.

  18. #18
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Market hits an all-time high after blowout economic data and strong bank earnings


    U.S. stocks climbed to record levels on Thursday after key companies reported strong earnings and fresh economic data pointed to a rebound in consumer spending and the jobs market.


    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260 points to hit an all-time high. The S&P 500 gained 0.9%, also reaching an intraday record. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.1%.


    Retail sales surged 9.8% in March as additional stimulus sent consumer spending soaring, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That number topped the Dow Jones estimate of a 6.1% gain.


    A separate report on Thursday showed that first-time filings for unemployment insurance dropped to the lowest level since March 2020. The Labor Department reported 576,000 new jobless claims for the week ended April 10. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a total of 710,000.


    MORE Market hits an all-time high after blowout economic data and strong bank earnings

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    As economy spikes, Republicans are still waiting for the 'Biden depression' that Trump predicted

    Throughout last year's campaign, President DonaldTrump issued a series of increasingly dark predictions about what would happen if Joe Biden were elected.

    "If he gets in, you will have a depression the likes of which you've never seen. Your 401(k)s will go to hell and it'll be a very, very sad day for this country," Trump said in the Oct. 22 candidate debate.

    Instead, the rebounding economy is headed for its best year since 1984, according to the International Monetary Fund. The U.S. economy likely expanded in the first quarter at an annual rate of 6% and should accelerate in the months ahead, economist Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics told clients this week. More than 1.3 million jobs have been added since the election.

    By Trump's preferred metric - the stock market - Biden is outperforming his predecessor at this stage of his presidency. Last summer, the Republican said stock values would "collapse" under Biden. But through Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average was up nearly 16% since Nov. 7, when the Democrat was declared the apparent election winner, compared with a 10.5% gain over a similar period following Trump's election.


    "There wasn't much behind President Trump's predictions other than aspirations that he'd be reelected," said economist Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute.

    MORE. As economy spikes, Republicans are still waiting for the 'Biden depression' that Trump predicted

  20. #20
    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    As economy spikes, Republicans are still waiting for the 'Biden depression' that Trump predicted
    Tell them to have some patience.

  21. #21
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Yeah, it could take until Ivanka’s in.

  22. #22
    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    swoosh
    all in the context.

  23. #23
    Im bored AF Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by russellsimpson View Post
    Happy to hear the Misskit.

    (Irrational Exuberance once again?)

    Anyway, I remain comfortable in my general pessimism.
    They have ignited yet another phony financial crackup boom , where rising prices of things , gives the illusion of demand. When in reality , life expectancy and has fallen for 2 years in a row while the birth rate hits all time lows and more young ppl are living in their parents house than in the great depression.

    And annual GDP growth hasn't exceeded 3% for 10+ years.

    Edit. Make that 15 years actually

    US GDP to Hit Elusive 3% Annual Growth in 13 Years: 5 Picks

    And life expectancy fell for 3 years preceding the pandemic.

    US Life Expectancy Has Declined for the Third Year in a Row
    Last edited by Backspin; 23-04-2021 at 10:40 PM.

  24. #24
    Im bored AF Backspin's Avatar
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    Misskit the neoliberal capitalist is heralding high stock prices and muh earnings now

  25. #25
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    How’s that war in the Ukraine going?

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