Thread: America's biggest boom since 1946

Originally Posted by HoeHoe

"Markets carpet bombing...........

Remember Hoe Hoe,………..it’s just a bump in the road.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 932.27 points, or 2.81%, to close at 34,061.06. The S&P 500 gained 2.99% to 4,300.17. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.19% to 12,964.86. It was the biggest gain since 2020 for both the S&P 500 and the Dow.

Originally Posted by S Landreth

How’s Russia’s inflation doing Hoe Hoe?

Russian inflation reached 17.6% as of April 22

2 x 8.6% (US inflation rate) = 17.2

17.2 < 17.6

• U.S. jobless claims jump in latest week by biggest amount since last July

The numbers: Initial jobless claims rose by 19,000 to 200,000 in the week ended April 30, the Labor Department said Thursday. This is the biggest weekly rise in claims since last July and the highest level since mid-February.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated new claims would rise only to 182,000.

Key details: The number of people already collecting jobless benefits fell by 19,000 to 1.38 million in the week ended April 23. This is the lowest level since early 1970.

Big picture: Economists said most of the increase was due to seasonal adjustment factors rather than any widespread pickup in layoffs. One of the biggest gains in non-adjusted claims was in New York, which Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont attributed to teachers getting assistance during spring break.

The gain in claims does echo the softening in the labor market in April detected by the ADP National Employment report. The ADP data noted a decline in small business hiring, but economists weren’t worried.

“Even in a boom, some firms fall or downsize, so claims can’t drop to zero,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday described the labor market as “extremely tight.” Over first three months of the year, employment has risen by 1.7 million jobs this year, he noted. A strong labor market is one reason the economy can handle tighter monetary policy, Powell said.

Looking forward: “I would look for claims to move back below 200,000,” Stanley said in a note to clients.

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Not the 3.5% I was looking for.

• US Added 428,000 Jobs In April Despite Surging Inflation

America’s employers added 428,000 jobs in April, extending a streak of solid hiring that has defied punishing inflation, chronic supply shortages, the Russian war against Ukraine and much higher borrowing costs.

Friday’s jobs report from the Labor Department showed that last month’s hiring kept the unemployment rate at 3.6%, just above the lowest level in a half-century.

The economy’s hiring gains have been remarkably consistent in the face of the worst inflation in four decades. Employers have added at least 400,000 jobs for 12 straight months.

Yet it’s unclear how long the jobs boom will continue. The Federal Reserve this week raised its key rate by a half-percentage point — its most aggressive move since 2000 — and signaled further large rate hikes to come. As the Fed’s rate hikes take effect, they will make it increasingly expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow, spend and hire.

In addition, the vast economic aid that the government had been supplying to households has expired. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has helped accelerate inflation and clouded the economic outlook. Some economists warn of a growing risk of recession.

For now, the resilience of the job market is particularly striking when set against the backdrop of galloping price increases and rising borrowing costs. This week, the Labor Department provided further evidence that the job market is still booming. It reported that only 1.38 million Americans were collecting traditional unemployment benefits, the fewest since 1970. And it said that employers posted a record-high 11.5 million job openings in March and that layoffs remained well below pre-pandemic levels.

What’s more, the economy now has, on average, two available jobs for every unemployed person. That’s the highest such proportion on record.

And in yet another sign that workers are enjoying unusual leverage in the job market, a record 4.5 million people quit their jobs in March, evidently confident that they could find a better opportunity elsewhere.

Chronic shortages of goods, supplies and workers have contributed to skyrocketing price increases — the highest inflation rate in 40 years. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February dramatically worsened the financial landscape, sending global oil and gas prices skyward and severely clouding the national and global economic picture.

In the meantime, with many industries slowed by worker shortages, companies have been jacking up pay to try to attract job applicants and retain their existing employees. Even so, pay raises haven’t kept pace with the spike in consumer prices.

That’s why the Fed, which most economists say was much too slow to recognize the inflation threat, is now raising rates aggressively. Its goal is a notoriously difficult one: a so-called soft landing.

Economy adds better than expected 428K jobs in April, unemployment holds at 3.6 percent

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Last week the market took another hit.

But as stated here over and over again. It’s just a bump in the road.

• Maybe moving back to a slower steady growth.

The markets seem to be pricing in a soft landing — one where the economy remains strong, while stocks revert to being a vehicle for long-term savings rather than short-term speculation. That's a huge vote of confidence in Jay Powell's Federal Reserve.

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Hoe Hoe is there some news you’re keeping from us?

• Russia’s inflation rate to reach between 18% and 23% this year.