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  1. #1
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    Elon Musk’s Starlink poised to shake up Australia’s broadband

    He’s disrupted the car and battery business, the space business, and has helped make cryptocurrency mainstream.

    Now businessman Elon Musk stands on the cusp of upsetting Australia’s broadband business by providing internet from space through thousands of satellites passing in low Earth orbit.

    Starlink, a division of SpaceX, is rolling out a constellation of thousands of satellites to provide space-based broadband on Earth. Nearly every time a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches, it carries more Starlink satellites with it.

    The Starlink satellite train makes its way around the globe. Supplied

    The company has the potential to offer stiff competition to the NBN Sky Muster satellite service and reshape the local industry, says Paul Budde, a telecommunications consultant who tracks the development of the global industry.

    “I am under the impression that most of the telcos as well as governments are not prepared for the potential shock this might give to the structure of local telecommunications market,” said Budde, in an unpublished research note.

    Changes pioneered by Starlink - and emerging companies like it - could erase the digital divide seen between cities and regional towns, Budde writes. There are still more than 2 million Australians who lack internet access at home.

    Visitors watch a Falcon 9 SpaceX rocket with a payload of approximately 60 satellites for SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network lift off last year. AP

    While Musk has been over-optimistic in past projections – in 2016 he said SpaceX would send a mission to Mars beginning in 2018 – SpaceX has since then achieved tangible advances, such as crewed space travel to the International Space Station.

    Profits from Starlink would help SpaceX “develop more and more advanced rockets and spaceships”, Musk said in 2019, making the company “a key stepping stone” on the path to establishing a “self-sustaining city on Mars and a base on the moon”.

    So far SpaceX has put 1200 Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit, 310 craft this year alone.

    As the number of satellites grows, the coverage and service levels are expected to improve, too.

    The company has US government approval to launch nearly 12,000 satellites, some into higher orbits. Part of the disruptive effect of SpaceX, Musk’s better-known company, is its ability to drive down the cost of launching gear into low-Earth-orbit by reusing rockets, which alters the economics of launch.

    Cheaper launch opens the door to a bigger fleet of satellites used for broadband, and better internet speeds.

    With broadband speeds varying from 50 megabits per second to 150 mps, Starlink potentially lifts the experience of users, even in remote communities, to levels that would usually be seen in capital cities.

    NBN’s Sky Muster satellite broadband – relying on two, larger satellites orbiting at a much greater distance – offer maximum speeds between 5 and 25 mps with bursts “above this speed where network conditions allow”.

    Elon Musk: coming to shake up Australia’s broadband internet market. Getty

    Starlink’s growing fleet of many smaller satellites – each only a 3.5 per cent of the size of a Sky Muster satellite - orbiting at just over 300 kilometres chops down the time it takes for data to travel from Earth to the satellite and back.

    The so-called “latency” of Starlink service ranges from 20 to 40 milliseconds.

    In part, because NBN’s much larger satellites are in geostationary orbit (at 36,000 kilometres), latency is between 600 and 800 milliseconds. This delay affects video, games or any other data intensive activity.

    Starlink is “designed to run real-time, competitive video games”, Musk tweeted last year. Starlink’s latency will be trimmed again to 16 to 19 milliseconds by midyear. Its latency could eventually get “as low as 8 milliseconds”.

    Depending on the success of the Starlink rollout – including how fast and stable the connections are, and how easy to use – a deeper disruption of the existing broadband market could really begin, says Budde.

    Providing internet to regional Australia or under-served communities has always been a challenge, given distances, costs and the will of businesses and government.

    “As competition intensifies, these companies will be forced to look beyond regional areas and might start to encroach on the more traditional fixed broadband services in suburbia as well,” Budde said.

    It is expected that Starlink’s fleet of orbiting satellites will be dense enough to begin coverage in the middle of the year. The company has already established ground stations in four locations in Australia needed to make the signal robust.

    The company also has a smattering of customers using the small dish receivers and routers for Starlink services already.

    There is, however, still a lot of scepticism about low Earth orbit internet providers, among local telcos and government officials.

    Part of the reason for the scepticism is that, to date, the economics and capabilities of existing satellite internet providers have been more limited, even as their promise was hyped.

    Asked about Starlink, an NBN spokesperson said: “Emerging commercial satellite broadband networks may have the potential to provide some consumers with additional choices, however, NBN has an important obligation to help ensure all Australians have access to fast broadband, at affordable prices, and at least cost to taxpayers.”

    Sky Muster has 100,000 customers. Starlink has been contacted for comment.

    A Falcon 9 SpaceX rocket with a payload of 60 satellites for SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network, lifts off in Florida. AP

    Starlink and NBN Sky Muster aren’t the only players in this emerging business. Macquarie bank backed-Vocus Communications also provides business NBN satellite internet. Meanwhile, Amazon plans to expand into the business with Project Kuiper.

    Like in the space launch business, Musk’s venture is acting as a pace-setter, prioritising engineering and deployment, while tweaking improvements on the go.

    Not everyone sees Starlink’s entry to Australia as a clear disruptor.

    Telecommunications analyst Paul Budde sees SpaceX and other low Earth orbit broadband providers shaking up the local business. Supplied

    Melbourne-based New Street Research analyst Ian Martin said Starlink and other satellite broadband providers won’t compete “across the wider broadband market given the in situ advantage of NBN fibre and various wireless networks.

    “It may be competitive at the margin in regional areas, but as these are loss-making for NBN and retail service providers, if Starlink is successful there it may be a good thing from their point of view.”

    An increase in satellite broadband choices “could give regional providers an option [other] than satellite replacement”.

    The speed and availability could do a lot to level the playing field between city and regional internet.

    Perhaps for that reason, in the US, the Federal Communication Commission granted SpaceX $US885.5 million ($1.1 billion) in support over 10 years to connect thousands of rural sites as part of an effort to bridge the city-rural digital divide.

    High-speed broadband in regional Australia will only make relocation in a pandemic-world more viable for households and businesses.

    “This will have a massive effect on the NBN, Telstra’s role as a [primary communications] provider, the mobile operators and on government policies and regulations,” Budde said.
    But it could bring new frustrations.

    Starlink’s webpage warns that users who live in areas “with lots of tall trees, buildings, etc. may not be good candidates for early use of Starlink”.
    As a complex and expensive business, Starlink is not without its critics.

    The company came under fire from astronomers last year for the streaking effect so many small sats were having on observation of the night sky.

    Since then, the company has altered the altitude of the satellites to reflect less light, and designed new units with a visor “to block sunlight from hitting the brightest parts of the spacecraft”.
    There are also concerns about the volume of small satellites being lobbed into orbit.

    “There’s a point at which there are so many of them manoeuvring all the time that it’s a hazard to traffic” in space, Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics, told Business Insider.

    But like Tesla and SpaceX, the higher risk opens up new rewards.

    Starlink plans an eventual spin-off from SpaceX, and a float, with analysts estimating its value between $US40 billion and more than $US130 billion.

    If it’s successful, investors will be able to trade shares in near real-time from regional Australia.

    https://amp.smh.com.au/business/comp...25-p57e07.html

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    The company has US government approval to launch nearly 12,000 satellites, some into higher orbits.

    ...

    The company came under fire from astronomers last year for the streaking effect so many small sats were having on observation of the night sky.

    Since then, the company has altered the altitude of the satellites to reflect less light, and designed new units with a visor “to block sunlight from hitting the brightest parts of the spacecraft”.
    Yes, Starlink has license to launch a lot of satellites into orbits higher than 1000km. But they no longer intend to use these licenses. At that altitude if a satellite fails and can not deorbit by itself, it will stay up for hundreds of years. They now intend to deploy all sats below 600km but they are waiting for their license change to be approved by FCC. Lower means total capacity of the network becomes larger because a single sat beams down to a smaller region, allowing for more frequent reuse of the same frequency, but it needs more satellites for global coverage.

    A stack of 60 satellites. They are maxing out the volume of their payload fairing and the lifting capacity of their Falcon 9 rocket, very efficient. Before their first launch experts were expecting they can launch ~30 sats, this was a shock for them.
    -d6vkkwiuuaabz_p-jpg


    A single Starlink sat, with the solar panel deployed.
    -starlink-sat-png


    A string of Starlink sats shortly after deployment. Due to changes in orientation and design changes to make them less visible they are barely, if at all visible when operational.
    -astroimage_20200423_sl_01_400x225-jpg
    "don't attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence"

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    This service does not come cheap. It is really only for those who can not get good service in their location. Presently $500 for the antenna and router plus $100 per month in the US. Equivalent prices in other countries. The antenna is complex high tech. Many hundreds of GHz-chips, custom designed and produced for the purpose, to make one. They are presently at short supply. To meet demand they need to build several millions of them each year. Which will need a billion or more chips.

    Before SpaceX started making them, the antenna was in the range of $20,000.

    Expectation is that Starlink presently loses when selling them for $500. Question is how much. Common opinion is they can't be below $2000. I think it is less but more than $500.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    Presently $500 for the antenna and router plus $100 per month in the US. Equivalent prices in other countries.
    Well internet cost in the US is high already due to the fact that a few companies have a monopoly. As production ramps up I think the price will come down as always. This will be a game changer for many who live in rural areas of OZ and the US.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    Well internet cost in the US is high already due to the fact that a few companies have a monopoly. As production ramps up I think the price will come down as always. This will be a game changer for many who live in rural areas of OZ and the US.
    I think Amazon will be competing in this area also, and Google having failed with their wacky balloons will probably join in, too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    I think Amazon will be competing in this area also
    They are already with Project Kuiper. They have a bit of catch up to do but they are working on it for sure.

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    Amazon are working on Kuiper. They will need launch capability too. Blue Origin New Glenn is also not really fast track but will be a good launch vehicle for Kuiper, when available. SpaceX will likely get a good share of the launches. When SpaceX gets Starship flying there will not be any competetive launch vehicle for at least a decade. No one has one even at the drawing board presently.

    Biggest challenge is the end user dish. Dishes for GEO sats, as presently used for sat TV are fixed to the sat position. LEO internet sats are moving fast. Traditionally for military and marine applications moving dishes are used that track the satellite. At least 2 are needed. One for receiving, one to track the next sat to switch over. Expensive and maintenance intensive. SpaceX dishes are mechanically fixed in position, but can move into a desired pointing position. They use electronic beam steering which is a major challenge. But they can switch from one satellite to the next in milliseconds, without noticable service interruption.

    One Web had intended to develop their own but failed and then switched to only commercial customers.

    If anybody is really interested, here is a teardown video where a specialist has opened and inspected it. Good comment, if barely understandable for us lay men.


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    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Funny you should mention Oneweb. The British government rescued them and they already have 146 satellites in orbit.

    They are going to provide the UK's GPS service.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    They are going to provide the UK's GPS service.
    I will believe that when I see it. The UK space agency advised the UK government, not to buy One Web. What is presently going up there will not provide GPS service.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    Well internet cost in the US is high already due to the fact that a few companies have a monopoly. As production ramps up I think the price will come down as always. This will be a game changer for many who live in rural areas of OZ and the US.
    And the technology will improve, remember the first cell phones?
    -old-cell-jpg
    once the receiving technology is miniaturized, as it will inevitably be, and it becomes mobile. it will become a game changer for many industries.
    Cell phones are out, VOiP everywhere , connectivity anywhere any time. and with neural connectivity that Musk is working on right now, The answer to every question simply by thinking about it.
    Homo Conectus . except for some members of this forum , who will resist progress and remain simple Homos.
    The sooner you fall behind, the more time you have to catch up.

  11. #11
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    Any reason this won't be as bad as satellite TV was here? Like technical reasons...?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DonKiddick View Post
    Any reason this won't be as bad as satellite TV was here? Like technical reasons...?

    What do you mean? Dropouts due to weather?

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    The general opinion from Backpackers that come here is that Australian internet is pretty crappy compared to elsewhere- at least in the first world. Relatively slow, subject to cutouts, & expensive. So good luck Elon!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    What do you mean? Dropouts due to weather?
    yes , rain

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    Quote Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
    yes , rain

    There is already quite a large number of customers in a beta service in the US and Canada, so there is some experience. Starlink calls it "better than nothing beta service". Starlink behaves different than sat TV. TV drops out when signal goes below some service level. Internet service declines gracefully. Which means speed drops but does very rarely drop out. Maybe no longer good enough for several simultaneous 4k video streams. Still even in worst conditions the service is usually better than what they had before. It is also gradually improving and will be more robust when they have deployed the initial 1500 sats in service. By that time they can also stretch the service to all of the US, except Alaska. Heavy snow at very low temperature sometimes becomes a problem. The dish is heated and eventually the snow melts but some dropouts happen. But better than mobile service in similar conditions.

    People in Alaska and the military in polar regions are waiting for Starlink to deploy satellites in polar inclinations. But Starlink can not begin deployment because 1 year after they requested license for the new lower altitudes the FCC has not yet granted it. They have given license only for a launch of 10 test satellites. These sats have laser comm links that allow to offer service over regions with no local ground stations. The signal goes through several sats until it reaches an area with ground stations and can be downlinked.

    BTW ping times are quite fast and keep getting better with more sats and software improvements. When he first announced Starlink, Elon Musk said if it does not allow fast online video games, like FPS, it is not Internet.

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