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  1. #1
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    Azerbaijan and Armenia on brink of outright war

    Nagorno-Karabakh: Fresh fighting erupts dashing ceasefire efforts


    Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry says one civilian has been killed and four wounded in an Armenian rocket attack on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja on Sunday.

    Armenia denied attacking its neighbour. The leader of Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region in Azerbaijan controlled by ethnic Armenians, said it had targeted Ganja, a city of more than 330,000 in the western part of the country.

    In statements posted on its website earlier, Azerbaijan’s defence ministry said Ganja and several other civilian areas were being attacked using rockets and shelling.

    Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu, reporting from Ganja, said: “People here are telling us that approximately an hour after a rocket landed, a second hit another residential area a few blocks away, wounding two people.”

    Earlier, Armenian officials said Azerbaijan’s forces had shelled Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh’s main city, where the sound of sirens was heard at approximately 9:30am (05:30 GMT), followed by several explosions, according to AFP news agency.

    “Azerbaijani forces are shelling civilian targets in Stepanakert with rockets,” Armenian defence ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan told AFP.

    Azerbaijani authorities said they had taken “retaliatory measures” after rocket fire from Stepanakert.

    Al Jazeera’s Bernard Smith, reporting from Stepanakert, said the city has been under intense bombardment since the morning.

    “There has been considerable damage on the buildings in the city centre,” he said. “People were unable to go out. They are hiding in the bomb shelters. Civilians are on the receiving end of this bombardment.”

    Separately, the defence ministry in Baku said Armenian armed forces were firing rockets at the towns of Terter and Horadiz in the Fizuli region.
    ‘Final battle’

    Nagorno-Karabakh is controlled by ethnic Armenians backed by Armenia and has been the subject of several United Nations resolutions calling for an end to the occupation of Azeri lands.
    The leader of the breakaway province, Arayik Harutyunyan, said he was heading to the front and that the “final battle” for the region had begun, while Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his nation was facing a historic threat.

    “We are facing possibly the most decisive moment in our millennia-old history,” Pashinyan said in an address to the nation on Saturday. “We all must dedicate ourselves to a singular goal: Victory.”

    Azerbaijan and Armenia previously fought a war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the late 1980s and early 1990s as they transitioned into independent countries amid the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    The war, which ended with a fragile peace treaty in 1994, is estimated to have killed tens of thousands of people, including more than a thousand civilians.

    Armenia says it was Azerbaijan that restarted the conflict by launching a major offensive on September 27, while Baku says it was forced to respond to provocations by the other side.

    The fighting continued despite international calls for the neighbours to halt clashes and begin talks as fears grow that the fighting could expand into a multi-front war sucking in regional powers Turkey and Russia.

    Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan says civilian killed in Ganja | Asia | Al Jazeera

  2. #2
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    An unfortunate situation caused by the balkanization of the region by foreign powers. The only solution IMO is a honest and equitable federation which is made possible because of religious defences.
    The Caspian Report is a fair and impartial assessment of regional difference respected by academics on the subject, and a go to for me when looking for objective information.
    If you are interested......
    The sooner you fall behind, the more time you have to catch up.

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    An unfortunate situation caused by the balkanization of the region by foreign powers.
    If by "foreign powers", you mean by Stalin, then yes, you are right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    If by "foreign powers", you mean by Stalin, then yes, you are right.
    .
    Russia, Turkey, Germany, Austria , France. It might be easier to list the countries that were not involved.

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    Armenia had a pro US color devolution in 2018. Even though they are still a Russian protectorate. This is why Russia is just sitting back and letting them eat some lead.

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    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai View Post
    .
    Russia, Turkey, Germany, Austria , France. It might be easier to list the countries that were not involved.
    Stalin made it part of Azerbaijan. It never belonged there and it never will, but in Soviet days it didn't matter.

    I suppose Putin could invade them both under the pretence of "peacekeeping" and fulfill a bit more of his dream to reunite the USSR.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Stalin made it part of Azerbaijan. It never belonged there and it never will, but in Soviet days it didn't matter.

    I suppose Putin could invade them both under the pretence of "peacekeeping" and fulfill a bit more of his dream to reunite the USSR.
    Russia lost Arminia in 2018 by color devolution. Problem is , the pro US govt is not popular in the slightest.

    Here is the sprawling new US embassy

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    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Big mistake for Erdogan to launch this new distraction from serial humiliations in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and East Med, and increasing domestic strife. Having got the message from Egypt and to a lesser extent Macron, while the EU snoozed, and realised that he never will get his base in Libya, his next cunning plan was to move some 4k of his pet jihadis east to start this new conflict which is also doomed to fail.

    The only thing we know for sure is that Russia will side with Armenia; if the Azeris do get frisky, Russia will step in with a yellow card, but not sure if that will be before or after they slap Erdogan back into his box.

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    Last edited by OhOh; 05-10-2020 at 11:52 AM.

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    Thank you for sparing us reams of idiotic rambling from your chinky-loving Indian friend.

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    Update

    As was predicted by many, in spite of the agreement signed in Moscow, thing on the ground in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan have escalated: the Armenians have claimed that Azeri drones have attacked Armenian tactical ballistic missiles on Armenian soil and the Azeris have confirmed this, saying that this was both a warning and a preemptive attack to protect Azeri civilians.
    Bottom line is this: Azerbaijan has now officially attacked Armenian soil (as opposed to Karabakh soil) and Armenia now has the right to appeal to the CSTO. So far, the Armenians have not done so, but now they can and, I believe, probably will do so.


    Another interesting development is that the USA has accused Turkey of being involved in this war. This means that by now all three countries Russia, France and the USA are now declaring that the Turks (and or their “good terrorist” proxies from Syria) are involved. Aliev is outraged and accused everybody of lying.
    Finally, Azeri and Turkish outlets have claimed the Kurds are now fighting on the Armenian side. However, there have been no verifiable sources for this probably false rumor.
    As for the Armenian leader Pashinian, he has accused Aliev of being “Hitler”.
    What does all this mean?
    Well, for one thing, it was inevitable that the very first ceasefire agreement would be broken. In such situations, they typically are.
    The real risk now is that Russia will have to intervene. There are three most likely scenarios for such an intervention:


    Peacekeeping operation: that would only be possible if all sides to the conflict agree to such an operation. At this point in time, this is still unlikely, but that could change fairly quickly. However, Russia will only send peacekeepers if the parties agree on a long term political solution to this conflict. Right now, they prefer fighting down to the last bullet, but this will soon change for both parties.


    Peacemaking operation: for this to happen, the UNSC should agree to give a mandate to Russia under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. While it appears that Turkey currently has no backer in the UNSC, the US and UK hate for everything and anything Russian will probably secure a double veto (with a possible French veto to boot!) just to avoid Russia succeeding at anything, including bringing peace to the region.
    CSTO military intervention: in other words, Russia would strike at Azeri forces and assets to stop the Azeri aggression on Armenia. This is something Russia absolutely will avoid, if at all possible since Russia has absolutely no desire to destroy her excellent partnership with Azerbaijan and her very tenuous and unstable partnership with Turkey (say, in Syria).
    It is obvious what Russia will do next: using overt and covert means, she will try to affect the situation on the ground in such a way as to basically force both sides to agree to a Russia-led peacekeeping operation.


    The main problem right now is Erdogan who is spending most of his time making inflammatory statements and who is demanding that Turkey be included in any negotiations. The way the Turks want this is to have Turkey negotiate on behalf of Azerbaijan and Russia negotiate on behalf of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh. So far, Russia has categorically refused this option.
    So where do we go from here?


    Well, things are probably going to get worse before they get better. Either that, or they will get worse before they get MUCH worse. I hope for the first option, but if Turkey and/or Azerbaijan continue to strike at Armenia or if Armenia recognizes “Artsakh” then all bets are off. We better pray that cool heads prevail on both sides and that Russia can make Erdogan an offer he won’t be able to refuse. For example, the Russians might declare that the Russian contingent in Armenia will now protect the Armenian airspace with Russian air defense systems (ground or air based). If, for no apparent reason, Azeri and/or Turkish start falling out of the skies, Erdogan might reconsider.
    We shall soon find out.
    The Saker

  12. #12
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    ^
    Turkey instigated the Azeri into this 'war', Erdogan knowing full well that Russia is committed to the Armenians. What he gets out of this, much like his serial failures in Syria, Libya and East Med, is yet another distraction from the calamities happening at home.

    If it gets much worse, and it will, I suspect he will start polishing the immigration tap and we can watch Merkel wee herself again.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    ^
    Turkey instigated the Azeri into this 'war', Erdogan knowing full well that Russia is committed to the Armenians. What he gets out of this, much like his serial failures in Syria, Libya and East Med, is yet another distraction from the calamities happening at home.

    If it gets much worse, and it will, I suspect he will start polishing the immigration tap and we can watch Merkel wee herself again.

    Yep. Good ol Erdogan. The most reckless SOB in the geopolitical realm. He's literally trying to stir up trouble anywhere he can.

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    This isn't good. In the last war in 1994, Armenia had the upper hand, so they pushed the line further out than they had to. Like Israel 1967 borders say. So I think Azerbaijan is just trying to get that land back. Hopefully they will just take that buffer space back and call it quits. If they go for NK proper, its going to be a bloody mess

    Good video report on the war here https://southfront.org/wp-content/pl...F&pid=2066

    On the morning of October 22, Armenian forces launched ballistic missiles at targets inside the territory of Azerbaijan. According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, 3 missiles were fired in the direction of the Siyazan region, two in the direction of the Gabala region, and one in the direction of the Kurdamir region. Baku claimed that the strike was aimed at the civilian population and civilian infrastructure. The report provided no details regarding the type of missiles employed. Nonetheless, Armenian forces have so far only employed R-17 Elbrus and OTR-21 Tochka missiles. The Armenian Armed Forces also have several much more modern 9K720 Iskander shot-range ballistic missile systems, but the complex has not yet been employed because the leadership of Armenia is in no hurry to enter a full-out war with Azerbaijan to protect the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (also known as the Republic of Artsakh).


    The Armenian Defense Ministry denounced the reports as fake but it should be noted that Yerevan was also denying a ballistic missile strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja on October 16, a strike, which killed or injured several dozens of civilians. Later, Armenian sources spent much time marking military objects located in the city on maps. However, the civilian casualties from that strike are the confirmed fact. In their turn, Azerbaijan claims that it has destroyed at least 3 Armenian tactical ballistic complexes. A few of them were struck on the Armenian border area near Karabakh.



    https://southfront.org/wp-content/pl...F&pid=2066
    Last edited by Backspin; 23-10-2020 at 10:29 AM.

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    Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow "will render Yerevan all necessary assistance if clashes take place directly on the territory of Armenia."


    This after over the past month there's been no less than three failed ceasefire attempts, with the last couple lasting a mere hours before large-scale shelling resumed from both sides.
    The Russian statements makes the potential for the conflict to spin out into a regional war more likely, given Turkey has already made similar vows to its ally Azerbaijan. Turkey's government has outright called for the "liberation" of Armenian ethnic held Nagorno-Karabakh. And Armenia's military has accused Turkey of already actively supporting the Azeri Army through air support and foreign mercenaries transferred from northern Syria.



    According to Moscow Times, "Russia has reportedly set up a small military outpost on the border of Armenia in an apparent attempt to keep Azerbaijan’s offensive from spilling over into Armenian territory."
    A photo by TASS photographer Sergei Bobylev shows a Russian field camp set up near Tegh, close to the Lachin pass which connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Azerbaijani forces have made advances towards the pass in recent days.

    ⚡️ Live updates: https://bit.ly/2HxUT9I pic.twitter.com/8aBamiCvPI
    — OC Media (@OCMediaorg) October 25, 2020
    Armenia is clearly pressing for greater Russian involvement. "The prime minister of Armenia has asked the Russian president to begin urgent consultations with the aim of determining the kind and amount of aid which the Russian Federation can provide Armenia to ensure its security," Armenia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.


    Meanwhile neither side nor their international backers appear willing to back down or deescalate anytime soon. On Monday Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said the Azeri Army will not stop its operations in Karabakh and adjacent areas until total withdrawal of Armenian forces from "occupied Azerbaijani lands".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    According to Moscow Times, "Russia has reportedly set up a small military outpost on the border of Armenia
    Russia has had its military base inside Armenia for decades long, as per old mutual treaty. (and surely will have some bases outside, who would not?)

    And the dangerous Mr. Putin is not very keen to send his soldiers to fight for the Armenians who have been very happy to open their hearts to others superpower (as many other foolish former CCCP republics).

    Especially not keen to be involved when the Armenia has been given modern chemical and biological laboratories (9 pcs) furnished many years ago (what for?) and paid by the superpower's taxpayers (not the Russian speaking), similarly as in many other foolish former CCCP republics...

    And surely not keen to get his soldiers in fight just for the hills of the Nagorny Karabakh where the Armenians are not really legally.

    At the end of the day, a solution with his friend Erdogan will be amicably set up as it has been in Syria, the initiators of that conflict will not reach anything better than they had reached in "revolutions" at Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, you name it ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Klondyke View Post
    Russia has had its military base inside Armenia for decades long, as per old mutual treaty. (and surely will have some bases outside, who would not?)

    And the dangerous Mr. Putin is not very keen to send his soldiers to fight for the Armenians who have been very happy to open their hearts to others superpower (as many other foolish former CCCP republics).

    Especially not keen to be involved when the Armenia has been given modern chemical and biological laboratories (9 pcs) furnished many years ago (what for?) and paid by the superpower's taxpayers (not the Russian speaking), similarly as in many other foolish former CCCP republics...

    And surely not keen to get his soldiers in fight just for the hills of the Nagorny Karabakh where the Armenians are not really legally.

    At the end of the day, a solution with his friend Erdogan will be amicably set up as it has been in Syria, the initiators of that conflict will not reach anything better than they had reached in "revolutions" at Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, you name it ...
    Yeah. I'm guessing Russia extracted some good concessions from this color revolutionist fuckwit at the head of Armenia for this statement of support.

    See this statement. The Armenians came crawling to Russia begging for this :

    Armenia is clearly pressing for greater Russian involvement. "The prime minister of Armenia has asked the Russian president to begin urgent consultations with the aim of determining the kind and amount of aid which the Russian Federation can provide Armenia to ensure its security," Armenia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.

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    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow "will render Yerevan all necessary assistance if clashes take place directly on the territory of Armenia."


    This after over the past month there's been no less than three failed ceasefire attempts, with the last couple lasting a mere hours before large-scale shelling resumed from both sides.
    The Russian statements makes the potential for the conflict to spin out into a regional war more likely, given Turkey has already made similar vows to its ally Azerbaijan. Turkey's government has outright called for the "liberation" of Armenian ethnic held Nagorno-Karabakh. And Armenia's military has accused Turkey of already actively supporting the Azeri Army through air support and foreign mercenaries transferred from northern Syria.



    According to Moscow Times, "Russia has reportedly set up a small military outpost on the border of Armenia in an apparent attempt to keep Azerbaijan’s offensive from spilling over into Armenian territory."
    A photo by TASS photographer Sergei Bobylev shows a Russian field camp set up near Tegh, close to the Lachin pass which connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Azerbaijani forces have made advances towards the pass in recent days.

    ⚡️ Live updates: https://bit.ly/2HxUT9I pic.twitter.com/8aBamiCvPI
    — OC Media (@OCMediaorg) October 25, 2020
    Armenia is clearly pressing for greater Russian involvement. "The prime minister of Armenia has asked the Russian president to begin urgent consultations with the aim of determining the kind and amount of aid which the Russian Federation can provide Armenia to ensure its security," Armenia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.


    Meanwhile neither side nor their international backers appear willing to back down or deescalate anytime soon. On Monday Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said the Azeri Army will not stop its operations in Karabakh and adjacent areas until total withdrawal of Armenian forces from "occupied Azerbaijani lands".
    Russia would rather remain on the sidelines, but if it comes to the crunch will side with Armenia; and not even roused by Erdogan and his imported jihadis would the Azeris wish to engage Russian forces.

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Russia has announced it will give 'all necessary assistance' to Armenia if the conflict overflows into Armenian territory, true to it's defence pact obligations. I've no doubt they would, as do the Azeris, which is evidenced by an ebb in the fighting very soon after Russia waved the yellow card.

    Iran also backs Armenia and are moving troops and supplies to the border; this is a more immediate and just as persuasive threat to the Azeris, seeing as Russia doesn't have a border with Armenia.

    Next, Russia deploys peacekeepers, and been here before, Erdogan returns home claiming victory after yet another humiliating defeat.

    Conflicting data, but good sign that it 'seems' to date Armenia's front line consists of volunteers, not regular army.

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    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Also easy to lose in the mix, our friend and soulmate Erdogan threatening to intervene directly (ie escalate) with Turkish troops if Azerbaijan territory comes under threat, though both parties knew when they kicked off this latest Turk inspired nonsense that it's doomed to fail as Russia will side with Armenia. Serial failure never has meant much to Erdogan.

    So Turkish troops were on the scene from before it kicked off, as 'advisers', his imported jihadis have been involved in some of the fighting, but his latest folly is to tell the world he is prepared to mobilise more Turk fodder. Turk drone superiority gives them a clear edge, even against Russian drones, but this becomes irrelevant if Russia deploys its equal if not superior anti-drone equipment, repeating the Idlib scenario when Erdogan took advantage of drones early on to destroy large numbers of Syrian hardware and personnel, just until Putin reckoned Assad had learned the value of his friendship.

    I'm sure Erdogan's praying someone talks some sense into him before it comes to having to walk the talk, in light of Putin's provocative reference last month to the Armenian genocide that westworld has been conditioned not to mention, while other clues that Putin's patience is wearing thin are his forces pulverising caretaker jihadis the Turkish delight left behind in Idlib, and bombing oil convoys heading for Turkey. A rational person might see these as warnings.

    Big fail, time to call it a day and resign or get assassinated.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Big fail, time to call it a day and resign or get assassinated.
    It will never happen. He likens himself a dictator at this point and is power mad. It is unlikely that there is much fight against him left in the military since he jailed most of the generals and/or forced them to resign. Atatürk is spinning in his grave no doubt.

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    Perhaps the USSR should reform, but this time incorporate Turkey, and let Vlad sort it out. He seems to be about the only world leader that can.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    It will never happen. He likens himself a dictator at this point and is power mad. It is unlikely that there is much fight against him left in the military since he jailed most of the generals and/or forced them to resign. Atatürk is spinning in his grave no doubt.
    It depends if he has as many 9 lives to live as Castro. Wrecking the F-35 program is assassination worthy. The CIA is probably just waiting for the right time and place.

    The Russian intel agencies saved his ass last time. Although Erdogan poses a threat to Russia , he does make NATO look bad. And that's important.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Russia has announced it will give 'all necessary assistance' to Armenia if the conflict overflows into Armenian territory, true to it's defence pact obligations. I've no doubt they would, as do the Azeris, which is evidenced by an ebb in the fighting very soon after Russia waved the yellow card.

    Iran also backs Armenia and are moving troops and supplies to the border; this is a more immediate and just as persuasive threat to the Azeris, seeing as Russia doesn't have a border with Armenia.

    Next, Russia deploys peacekeepers, and been here before, Erdogan returns home claiming victory after yet another humiliating defeat.

    Conflicting data, but good sign that it 'seems' to date Armenia's front line consists of volunteers, not regular army.
    Yeah. Also , Russia sold a lot of weapons to Azerbaijan in the last 10 years. Far more tban to Armenia. So this situation is tricky for the Kremlin

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Perhaps the USSR should reform, but this time incorporate Turkey, and let Vlad sort it out. He seems to be about the only world leader that can.
    Erdogan is giving Putin a headache, he already faces growing discontent back home by hardliners concerned with what appears to be constant appeasement, occasionally putting him back in his box only for him to squirm out and find some other cause to champion.

    Imo, beyond one serial loser, the Armenia gig leaves no real winners, except to reinforce to others that Putin on your side constitutes a powerful majority.

    Something has to give, eventually.

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