Oil Curse: Sooner Rather Than Later

**Klondyke** · 12-04-2020, 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by jabir

Putin, increasingly the only adult in the room

a good one (and in fact, a real one)...

**harrybarracuda** · 12-04-2020, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by jabir

This was a fringe narrative touted by I think oilprice.com and others, but I can't believe that Putin and MsB constructed this major hoax to undermine US shale and give them bigger market shares. Like him or not, Putin is a seasoned strategist, and no way would he get into bed with a childish, stubborn, pigheaded, unreliable and blunder prone Saudi superego in such a global play against, like him or not, Trump who will protect US shale.

At the beginning of the session that kicked off the 'price war', the Russians made it clear that they were prepared to cut production, but not right now, needing to wait and see how the virus affects market conditions so that their share of cuts could be made with least damage to their economy. MbS spat the dummy, not used to hearing no without a head being lopped off, and issued an ultimatum which Putin, increasingly the only adult in the room, turned down, resulting in $20 oil and yet more enmity that the future king of Saudi should not be wanting. Still can't believe Putin conspired with MbS, and even if he did they're no nearer to pwning US shale.

Sorry mate, nothing makes sense anymore, and scary bit is I don't think it's the virus.

Quite the opposite. Putin refused to renew the existing deal, so Saudi turned the taps on and and forced him to capitulate.

They have the advantage that they make more on a barrel than he does.

**panama hat** · 12-04-2020, 12:25 PM

Originally Posted by Klondyke

a good one (and in fact, a real one)...

. . . he's being bullied to comply

**jabir** · 12-04-2020, 12:49 PM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Quite the opposite. Putin refused to renew the existing deal, so Saudi turned the taps on and and forced him to capitulate.

They have the advantage that they make more on a barrel than he does.

Wrong, Putin did not capitulate; if he capitulated this situation would never have happened, period.

MbS tried to bully Putin/Russia hoping to increase Saudi influence toward eventually dominating US shale. All he succeeded in doing is have two traditional adversaries each more powerful than him join forces with common cause to gang up on him. Again, in this event Putin was the adult in the room, not the embarrassment of this future Saudi king.

Now firmly in place and licking his wounds, I suspect mbs will be more receptive to common sense in future, like not upping production of oil that nobody wants with storage facilities at a premium, and accepting the fact that shale is a US strategic industry that will outlast the worst endeavours of any deluded child thinking to take on the big boys.

**harrybarracuda** · 12-04-2020, 02:09 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

Wrong, Putin did not capitulate; if he capitulated this situation would never have happened, period.

I think you're struggling with English.

Putin pulled out of the existing deal.

Saudi turned the taps on and dumped the price and told him they would keep it that way until he came back and made a deal.

Putin came back and made a deal.

This is called "capitulation".

Which bit of that are you struggling with.

capitulation

/kəpɪtjʊˈleɪʃ(ə)n/

noun

the action of ceasing to resist an opponent or demand.
"she gave a sigh of capitulation"

**harrybarracuda** · 12-04-2020, 02:10 PM

shale is a US strategic industry that will outlast the worst endeavours of any deluded child thinking to take on the big boys.

Shale is uneconomic at these prices.

Right now it's as useful as a foreskin in a jewish nudist camp.

**Klondyke** · 12-04-2020, 02:15 PM

^Not sure who did capitulate or who did not...

However, there are also other words and terms when dealing with others: an agreement, treaty, etc.

Admitting, such terms are not very well known to other countries (please no names), they either win or no win...

**jabir** · 12-04-2020, 02:28 PM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I think you're struggling with English.

Putin pulled out of the existing deal.

Saudi turned the taps on and dumped the price and told him they would keep it that way until he came back and made a deal.

Putin came back and made a deal.

This is called "capitulation".

Which bit of that are you struggling with.[/LIST]

doesn't isaysosoitmustbe.com ever get boring? - go random.

**Klondyke** · 12-04-2020, 02:39 PM

^and never knows what "capitulation" means....

**OhOh** · 12-04-2020, 02:43 PM

Here Is The "Secret Weapon" That Allowed Tiny Oil Producer Mexico To Defy Giant Saudi Arabia

Snippets:

"On Friday morning, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he had resolved the matter in a phone call with Trump.

The U.S. would make an additional 250,000 barrels a day of cuts on Mexico’s behalf.

"As Bloomberg's Javier Blas, who has closely followed Mexico's oil hedgers in the recent past writes, for the last two decades,

Mexico has bought "Asian" style put options from some of the most prominent US investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest - and most closely guarded - annual oil deal. The options give Mexico the right to sell its oil at a predetermined price. They are the equivalent of an insurance policy: the country banks all gains from higher prices but enjoys the security of a minimum floor. So - unlike all of its OPEC peers - if oil prices remain weak or plunge even further, Mexico will still book higher prices.

In 2016, Mexico spent $1.03 billion to protect itself from a downturn in prices, according to data released in the quarterly budget balance. In recent years, Mexico has spent an average $1 billion buying the hedges. The hedge first appeared in 2001, when Mexico made a tentative showing, spending just $217.3 million on put options, a fraction of the approximately $1 billion a year it would spend later. In 2003 and 2004, with oil prices rising, the country opted not to hedge at all. The strategy came into its own in 2005: Mexico has hedged every year since without interruption, giving it a unique peace of mind that should a worst case scenario happen, it would be able to sleep soundly a t night. Agustín Carstens, who later became head of the central bank, was finance minister when a massive $5.1 billion payout came in 2009; some government officials also refer to the annual oil bet as "the Agustínian hedge"; then in 2015, after the OPEC Thanksgiving massacre of 2015, the hedge made $6.4 billion and another $2.7 billion in 2016 after Saudi Arabia waged another failed price war aimed to crushing US shale producers."

""The insurance policy isn’t cheap," Mexican Finance Minister Arturo Herrera told broadcaster Televisa on March 10. “But it’s insurance for times like now. Our fiscal budget isn’t going to be hit." Pemex, the state-owned company, has its own separate, smaller oil hedge."

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Here Is The "Secret Weapon" That Allowed Tiny Oil Producer Mexico To Defy Giant Saudi Arabia | Zero HedgeVois là,

1. An alleged promise from goldilocks of a "250,000 barrels a day of cuts on Mexico’s behalf. - No details of which US oil companies will be told to cut their production.

It takes time for goldilocks to tell his "friends" to sell the, targeted companies, shares.

2. Mexico buys put options, insurance, to hedge against oil price collapse, every year. - Mexico won it's bet against US banks and oil companies.

**OhOh** · 12-04-2020, 05:21 PM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Putin pulled out of the existing deal.

Which had finished it's term. THE LORD desired more, encompassing all oil and gas producers. As that option wasn't in the "Saudi"

script, written by ...., there was never any "deal". All eyes are awaiting the G20 statement.

Originally Posted by jabir

Putin came back and made a deal.

Has deal been agreed, I presume you have a link to published OPEC+, G20 .... document?

Nothing on China Daily, RT, TASS or Reuters. Yet.

**OhOh** · 12-04-2020, 06:11 PM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

They have the advantage that they make more on a barrel than he does

Which is not as much as they/SA need to pay their CC statements.

Overview ----------------------- Actual--Q2-Q3--Q4---Q1--2021
Government Budget (% of GDP) -9.20 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -8.5 -8.5

Saudi Arabia - Economic Forecasts - 2020-2022 Outlook

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Shale is uneconomic at these prices

Unless "somebody" decides to give them 0% loans, to pay off their increasing bank overdrafts.

**OhOh** · 12-04-2020, 08:08 PM

Exclusive: U.S. banks prepare to seize energy assets as shale boom goes bust

April 10, 2020 / 4:38 AM / 2 days ago

"Major U.S. lenders are preparing to become operators of oil and gas fields across the country for the first time in a generation to avoid losses on loans to energy companies that may go bankrupt, sources aware of the plans told Reuters.

JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc are each in the process of setting up independent companies to own oil and gas assets, said three people who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The banks are also looking to hire executives with relevant expertise to manage them, the sources said.

The banks did not provide comment in time for publication.

Energy companies are suffering through a plunge in oil prices caused by the coronavirus pandemic and a supply glut, with crude prices down more than 60% this year.

Although oil prices may gain support from a potential agreement Thursday between Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production, few believe the curtailment can offset a 30% drop in global fuel demand, as the coronavirus has grounded aircraft, reduced vehicle use and curbed economic activity more broadly.

Oil and gas companies working in shale basins from Texas to Wyoming are saddled with debt.

The industry is estimated to owe more than $200 billion to lenders through loans backed by oil and gas reserves. As revenue has plummeted and assets have declined in value, some companies are saying they may be unable to repay.

Whiting Petroleum Corp became the first producer to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on April 1. Others, including Chesapeake Energy Corp, Denbury Resources Inc and Callon Petroleum Co, have also hired debt advisers.

If banks do not retain bankrupt assets, they might be forced to sell them for pennies on the dollar at current prices. The companies they are setting up could manage oil and gas assets until conditions improve enough to sell at a meaningful value.

Big banks will need to get regulatory waivers to execute their plans, because of limitations on their involvement with physical commodities, sources said.

Banks are hoping their planned ownership time frame of a year or so will pass a Federal Reserve requirement that they do not plan to hold assets for a long time. Because lenders would be stepping in to support part of the economy that is important to any potential rebound, and which has not gotten direct bailouts from the federal government, that might help applications, too.

For now, the banks are establishing holding companies that can sit above limited liability companies (LLCs) containing seized assets. The LLCs would be owned proportionally by banks participating in the original secured loan.

To run the oil-and-gas operations, banks might hire former industry executives or specialty firms that have done so for private equity, sources said. Houston-based EnerVest Operating LLC would be among the most likely operators, sources said.

“We regularly look for opportunities to operate on behalf of other entities, that is no different in this market,” said EnerVest Operating’s chief executive, Alex Zazzi.

GETTING ASSERTIVE

U.S. banks have not done anything like this since the late-1980s, when another oil-price rout bankrupted a bunch of energy companies. More recently, they have relied on restructuring processes that prioritize them as secured creditors and leave bondholders to seek control in lieu of payment.

But banks are becoming more assertive because of the coronavirus recession and balance sheet vulnerabilities that have developed in recent years.

U.S. oil and gas producers have increasingly relied on banks for cash over the past year, as debt or equity options dried up. Lenders have been conservative in valuing hydrocarbons used as collateral, but recent restructurings have left them spooked.

Alta Mesa Resources’ bankruptcy will likely provide banks with less than two-thirds of their money, while Sanchez Energy’s could leave them with nothing.

The structures banks are setting up will take a few months to establish, sources said. That gives producers until the fall - the next time banks will evaluate the collateral behind energy loans - to get their houses in order.

After several years of on-and-off issues with energy borrowers, lenders have little choice but to take more dramatic steps, said Buddy Clark, a restructuring partner at law firm Haynes and Boone.

“Banks can now believably wield the threat that they will foreclose on the company and its properties if they don’t pay their loan back,” he said. "

Exclusive: U.S. banks prepare to seize energy assets as shale boom goes bust - Reuters

**harrybarracuda** · 12-04-2020, 09:23 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

doesn't isaysosoitmustbe.com ever get boring? - go random.

No but "It's all there in black and white if you could be bothered fucking reading it" does.

**harrybarracuda** · 12-04-2020, 09:27 PM

Originally Posted by OhOh

Here Is The "Secret Weapon" That Allowed Tiny Oil Producer Mexico To Defy Giant Saudi Arabia

It seems no-one gave a fuck about Mexico and they went ahead and signed the deal anyway.

Which makes your headline pretty silly.

**harrybarracuda** · 12-04-2020, 09:33 PM

This deal is not enough anyway. Unless demand picks up pretty fucking fast, they are running out of places to put it.

The U.S. has room for another 77 million barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but Congress refused last month to approve the budget for an initial 30-million-barrel purchase. Oil traders and analysts estimate that China could buy an extra 80 million to 100 million barrels this year. Meanwhile, the Indian government is asking state-run refiners to buy 15 million barrels of crude from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq to fill its tanks. Beyond those three countries, there’s little storage capacity elsewhere.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

**NamPikToot** · 12-04-2020, 11:52 PM

Up or down on the open. I closed three times over 10 days and i have to say I am quite happy with the result +79%.

Now, i bought back in when it dropped again at the back end of last week and if it drops further i will buy more because even if WTI poops to $14 it doesn't matter as this is now a year + investment and i've pretty much covered the stake.

**OhOh** · 13-04-2020, 09:44 AM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Which makes your headline pretty silly.

The article's title is factually correct.

OPEC+ strikes last-minute deal to cut almost 10 mn barrels a day of oil production

12 Apr, 2020 17:55 / Updated 6 hours ago

"After four days of marathon talks, major global oil producers have finally inked an agreement to slash oil output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd), in a bid to boost the energy market amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil-producing states outside of the cartel, known as OPEC+, reached the deal to cut their output for May and June, Kuwait's Oil Minister Khaled Al-Fadhel announced on Twitter.

The cuts will protect oil producers from falling prices, triggered both by de-facto OPEC head Saudi Arabia flooding global markets with oil, and by falling demand amid the coronavirus pandemic.

OPEC and its allies had been trying to hammer out an accord since Thursday. While the first round of the virtual talks resulted in an agreement on the biggest supply cuts in history – 10 million barrels per day, amounting to around 10 percent of global supply – they ended without a resolution due to a disagreement with Mexico.

Mexico City refused to slash production by 400,000 bpd as requested, and abruptly abandoned Thursday’s emergency meeting. One day later, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador came up with a plan of his own, saying his country would reduce production by four times less than the cartel demanded, while an additional 250,000 bpd would be compensated for by the US. The final agreement will see Mexico cutting its output by 100,000 bpd.

Although all oil-generating countries were hit by the falling prices, including Saudi Arabia, the US – the world’s largest oil producer – was in considerable distress, with its shale oil industry facing the threat of closure. President Donald Trump has been throwing his political weight around over the last few weeks, even threatening Riyadh with tariffs.He praised the deal in a tweet on Sunday.

Countries outside OPEC+ are also expected to support the cuts, leading to an overall reduction of 20 million barrels a day, according to Al-Fadhel. Canada and Norway indicated that they are willing to slash their production, while the US said their output would fall with the prices."

OPEC+ strikes last-minute deal to cut almost 10 mn barrels a day of oil production — RT Business News

Putin, Trump, King Salman support OPEC+ agreement to reduce oil production: Kremlin - Global Times

OPEC, Russia approve biggest-ever oil cut to support prices amid coronavirus pandemic - Reuters

**harrybarracuda** · 13-04-2020, 02:06 PM

Originally Posted by OhOh

The article's title is factually correct.

Yes, I'm sure Saudi Arabia and Russia couldn't survive without Mexico's massive production cuts.

**harrybarracuda** · 13-04-2020, 05:08 PM

Jaysus, I didn't realise the LNG folk were being so fucking dumb.

The long-term natural gas outlook remains as tenuous as it has been ever since the sector suffered two consecutive seasons of warmer-than-normal winters. Like the oil sector, natural gas producers are largely going on with business as usual with nobody willing to be the first to blink.

Indeed, the sector is sitting on even shakier grounds because it lacks a strong organization like OPEC to try and maintain some semblance of order with the natural gas equivalent--the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)--usually preferring to take a hands-off approach.

Sure, a handful of producers usually dance to their own tunes, adjusting production according to the prevailing market dynamics. For instance, Norway’s Equinor is able to optimize its domestic gas output by deferring production when prices dip too low.

Meanwhile, producers who do not use long-term futures contracts such as Egypt are forced to halt production when it stops making economic sense while others like Russia’s Gazprom are limited by how much their transport infrastructure can handle.

But nobody seems willing to give up market share with the three biggest producers--Australia, Qatar and the U.S.--still maintaining near-100 percent utilization rates even at these ridiculously low price levels.

Indeed, many producers are now stealing another page from the oil sector’s playbook: Storing huge amounts of the commodity in the high seas.

Bloomberg has reported that LNG floating storage clocked in at 17 late last month, but eased to 13 in April after some vessels unloaded their cargoes in India. Never mind that storing super-cooled gas for months on end is wasteful and expensive.

The “boil-off” rate is a big loss factor for stored LNG, with 0.07 percent to 0.15 percent on average evaporating from LNG tankers every day. But with land storage facilities rapidly filling up, these producers are finding themselves hemmed in between a rock and a hard place.

Oil Price War Claims Another Victim | OilPrice.com

**OhOh** · 13-04-2020, 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

without Mexico's massive production cuts.

As THE LORD initially requested during his discussions with SA, who represents OPEC, all oil producers should share the cuts.

Which allegedly they all have agreed to, OPEC and non-OPEC

OPEC, Russia approve biggest-ever oil cut to support prices amid coronavirus pandemic

"OPEC and allies led by Russia (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to a record cut in output to prop up oil prices amid the coronavirus pandemic in an unprecedented deal with fellow oil nations, including the United States, that could curb global oil supply by 20%. "

"Three OPEC+ sources said non-members Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Norway and the United States would contribute 4 million to 5 million bpd. "

OPEC, Russia approve biggest-ever oil cut to support prices amid coronavirus pandemic - Reuters

Although some are already wary, possibly with an eye on the failing, fragile and pecunious frackers and goldilocks's reputation.

"The US is the world’s largest oil producer, but so far it hasn’t pledged any cuts in production, saying the fall in prices will trigger a scale-back by itself"

‘Great day for all’ – Trump hails OPEC production cuts, thanks Putin and Saudi king — RT USA News

Mission accomplished.

We await confirmation during the next two months, the duration of the deal, that everyone delivered on their "promises".

**tomcat** · 14-04-2020, 07:21 AM

Putin Makes Painful Climbdown as He Sues for Peace in Oil War

By Evgenia Pismennaya, Ilya Arkhipov, and Henry Meyer
April 13, 2020, 2:30 PM GMT+7

In reversal, Russia assuming more cuts than Saudi Arabia
U.S. main winner from OPEC+ deal as Trump avoids commitments

Vladimir Putin Photographer: Alexey Druzhinin/AFP via Getty ImagesLISTEN TO ARTICLE

Vladimir Putin’s deal with OPEC to cut oil output and boost prices three years ago was a triumph for the Russian leader, bolstering his clout on the global stage. But now he’s had to to make stinging concessions after U.S. President Donald Trump stepped in to end a price war.

Amid relief in Moscow at the unprecedented deal with Saudi Arabia and other major producers to slash oil output, the accord marks a painful setback for Russia, said two people close to the Kremlin.

Putin had catapulted Russia into a dominant role in global energy politics and drove a wedge between the U.S. and its Saudi ally, as the two marshaled producers to limit supplies. But it’s now clear he overplayed his hand when he refused to meet Saudi demands to double output cuts just five weeks ago. OPEC’s biggest producer cranked up output in a price war that crashed the market just as the spread of coronavirus demolished demand.

With markets collapsing, Putin agreed to cut more than 2.5 million barrels a day of crude from the 11 million of combined crude and condensate Russia pumps each day, more than four times the reduction that he turned down in early March and more than what Saudi Arabia is obliged to cut from its output level last month. Meanwhile, hopes that the U.S. would formally commit to its own curbs have evaporated, even as Trump takes credit for bringing about the new deal.

‘Much Higher Price’

The ill-fated decision to face off against Saudi Arabia in early March was “a strategic mistake and now we’re paying the price, a much higher price than we could have paid,” said Andrey Kortunov, director of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council. “This looks like a victory for the U.S., and Russia ends up a bigger loser than Saudi Arabia.”

If the cuts are achieved, Russia’s output for the next two months will drop to the annual average last seen in 2003, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Russian Energy Ministry and BP Plc’s Statistical Review. Russia agreed to continue smaller cuts until May 2022, though it did manage to hold onto one concession by keeping condensate, a light fuel of which it is a major producer, out of the quotas.

But Russia completely failed to anticipate the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world economy when it walked away from the agreement with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other big producers known as OPEC+, said a senior Russian official. Holding that alliance together would have prevented the collapse in prices to an almost two-decade low that followed. Now, the Kremlin has had to negotiate a new arrangement under highly unfavorable terms, he said.

The decision to compromise over the cuts to crude output is painful for Putin’s political image, but it’s essential as a step toward overcoming the crisis, said another person close to the Kremlin. The final agreement, which foresees a gradual lifting of the supply restrictions starting from July, was coordinated with all major Russian oil companies and had Putin’s personal stamp of approval. Even symbolic U.S. participation is seen as an important milestone.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, defended the new deal Friday. “There are no losers, there are only winners,” he told reporters on a conference call. The main state TV news program hailed the pact as an “unconditional success” on Sunday.

Economic Pain

But the deal marks a reversal in Putin’s push to restore Russia’s global influence, especially in the Middle East, where he’s become a key player with interventions in places like Libya and Syria. Just how big a setback it is will be determined by whether the new deal is enough to reverse the market rout and limit the economic pain for the Kremlin.

While Russian officials had put on a brave face in recent weeks as oil prices plunged, dragging the ruble sharply lower and forcing the central bank to sell dollars to steady the market, the Kremlin had become alarmed at the potential economic damage.

“Russia was seriously concerned about the Urals drop, in early April the price fell to almost $10 per barrel,” said Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director at Fitch Ratings, referring to Russia’s main export blend. “It’s difficult to imagine how the Russian budget would cope with a situation when the oil industry doesn’t bring any revenues at all.”

Lukoil PJSC’s billionaire shareholder Leonid Fedun likened the deal to the “humiliating and difficult” pact the Bolsheviks signed in 1918 to end Russia’s participation in World War I. Still, he told the RBC news group the pact will save the country’s oil industry from a production collapse of as much as 50% if low prices forced a “blanket” shuttering of wells.
Role Reversal

Moscow’s climbdown marks a dramatic role reversal. Due to climate and geography, Saudi Arabia can turn the taps on and off much more easily than Russia and, until now, Russia had dawdled on cuts, avoiding full compliance while Saudi Arabia bore the brunt of the output curbs to maintain market stability.

To meet the new conditions, Russian producers may have to go beyond cutting flows from their existing high-cost, fully taxed fields and review plans for new projects, said Darya Kozlova, head of oil and gas regulation at Moscow-based Vygon Consulting. That could have implications for years to come.

Russia may also have to provide cheaper supplies to traditional buyers in Europe to woo them back after Saudi Arabia offered deep discounts during their five-week standoff.

“This is Russia’s biggest defeat since the start of the 2000s,” said Dmitry Perevalov, an independent oil trader and former industry executive. “We’ve lost our markets and it won’t be easy to get them back.”

Bloomberg/asia

**panama hat** · 14-04-2020, 08:51 AM

Putin is a thug, less knowledgeable about economics than most leaders. He still has the old KGB mentality of bullying and trying to force directions. He really only looks good when compared with the orange afterbirth, Trump

**harrybarracuda** · 14-04-2020, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by OhOh

"The US is the world’s largest oil producer, but so far it hasn’t pledged any cuts in production, saying the fall in prices will trigger a scale-back by itself"

"Scale-back". An amusing synonym for "bankruptcy".

**harrybarracuda** · 14-04-2020, 11:08 AM

Originally Posted by tomcat

Putin Makes Painful Climbdown as He Sues for Peace in Oil War

“This is Russia’s biggest defeat since the start of the 2000s,” said Dmitry Perevalov, an independent oil trader and former industry executive. “We’ve lost our markets and it won’t be easy to get them back.”

Bloomberg/asia

Silly boy trying to play chicken with the Saudis.

Thread: Oil Curse: Sooner Rather Than Later

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