Some opinion pieces on the Libyan "troubles".
Libyan Peace Talks and Russian Diplomacy 101
"Libya stands at a precarious watershed between a peaceful political settlement – or further civil war. But at least the two main warring factions this week entered into a process of dialogue when they attended a summit in Moscow hosted by Russia.
Turkey was the second party at the summit acting as a mediator, along with Russia. Ankara is a staunch supporter of the UN-recognized Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli. Moscow recognizes the GNA too, but it also has strong links with the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar which is based in the eastern city of Tobruk.
Potentially, the diplomatic process that has got underway could bring an end to nearly nine years of conflict in Libya. The constructive involvement of Russia and Turkey is analogous to what these two nations have achieved in forging a political settlement for ending the war in Syria.
Arguably, Libya could represent an even more challenging task compared with Syria. At least in Syria there was a central, functioning national state with which to build peace on. By contrast in Libya, there is no unifying national state. The conflict there is more defined as an archetypal civil war, whereas in Syria the conflict was based on the defense of a state in the face of foreign-backed aggression. The task of procuring a comprehensive peace accord in Libya could therefore be more complicated and elusive.
As Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pointed out this week: “The Libyan statehood was bombed by NATO in 2011, and we are still facing the consequences of this illegal, criminal escapade, the Libyan people first of all.”
We may recall that the US and its European NATO allies conducted a seven-month aerial bombing campaign from March-October 2011 in Libya under the false and derisory pretenses of organizing “a humanitarian intervention”. That murderous NATO blitzkrieg resulted in the brutal lynching of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. The oil-rich country then became overrun by islamist extremists and warlords, and has remained in a state of chaos ever since. Syria could have fallen by the same nefarious fate of NATO-backed regime change, only for Russia’s military intervention at the end of 2015 to defend the state owing to their long-time alliance.
The NATO destruction of Libya has had disastrous geopolitical consequences. Extremists travelled from there to wage war against the state of Syria. This covert deployment of militants and weapons trafficking to Syria had the backing of the US and Turkey. That lethal conduit greatly exacerbated the war and death toll in Syria.
Libya, as a failed state, then became a gateway for millions of refugees from the Middle East and Africa attempting to enter Europe across the Mediterranean Sea. Hundreds of thousands of people have died from drowning in capsized shoddy boats. Crime and human trafficking have burgeoned. And Europe has borne sharp internal political divisions from the destabilizing inward migration.
For the past nine years, the NATO powers have washed their hands of their criminal destruction of Libya and the horrendous repercussions for the region.
Russia has shown commendable leadership in trying to piece Libya together through diplomatic engagement.
As an opinion article in the Washington Post observed: “While President Trump spends his time tweeting insults and threatening to start Middle Eastern wars, Russia is filling the vacuum in international diplomacy. In the case of Libya, ending a bloody conflict at the doorstep of Europe in an oil-rich country is a major deal.”
The conference in Moscow this week produced a shaky ceasefire. GNA leader Fayez Sarrij signed up to the truce, but the LNA’s Khalifa Haftar left Moscow with-holding his signature, saying that he wanted more time to consider. A truce does seem to be holding, however.
A follow-up peace summit is taking place this weekend in Berlin, hosted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The two Libyan leaders are expected to attend, as are Russia and Turkey, the two main guarantors. Other nations invited to participate include the US, China, Britain, France and Italy. Arab states which back different factions in Libya are also slated to attend: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE (which support the LNA) and Qatar (which backs the GNA).
Turkey has reportedly sent militia under its control from Syria to back up the GNA. Relations between Ankara and LNA leader Haftar are volatile. Turkey’s President Erdogan has threatened to deploy Turkish troops to Libya if Haftar’s forces resume their offensive to take over Tripoli.
Libya’s combustible conditions could yet explode into war, a war which may become another bloody proxy battlefield for international powers.
Nonetheless, Russia has created a diplomatic space for political progress towards stability and peace in the North African country. Can a government of national unity be formed by the warring sides? It’s not clear if the GNA has the inherent political stability to make a partnership work.
But one thing is clear. Russia’s diplomatic prowess has salvaged a chance
for peace out of the unholy mess that NATO left behind."
Libyan Peace Talks and Russian Diplomacy 101 — Strategic Culture
LNA’s Haftar Says to Sign Deal With GNA’s Sarraj in Berlin If Conditions Met – Source
" The LNA commander, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, has said during his talks with Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias that he would sign a deal with Fayez Sarraj, the head of the Government of National Accord (GNA), at the upcoming Berlin conference on Libya if certain conditions are met, a diplomatic source told reporters.
"Haftar has said that there are some preconditions that he has previously put forward to sign the agreement", the source said, adding that Haftar did not specify them.
The negotiations between Haftar and Dendias lasted more than an hour and a half. Later on 17 January, Haftar is also expected to meet with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
The UN-led conference on the Libyan crisis settlement is scheduled to be held in the German capital on 19 January. Libyan National Army (LNA) head, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and Fayez Sarraj, the head of the rival GNA, are also expected in Berlin.
Libyan Ceasefire Agreement Envisions Russian Control Over Implementation - Reports
Last Monday, both Haftar and Sarraj participated in talks aimed at achieving a ceasefire deal in Moscow. However, Haftar left the Russian capital without signing the agreement, explaining that he needed additional time to look into the deal. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan announced on 16 January that he would dispatch troops to Libya in support of the GNA.
Libya has been torn apart between the two rival administrations since 2011, when its long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and killed, with the LNA controlling the east and the Tripoli-based GNA sitting in the country’s west."
https://sputniknews.com/world/202001171078061960-lnas-haftar-says-to-sign-deal-with-gnas-sarraj-in-berlin-if-conditions-met/
UN Seeks End to Foreign Interference in Libya at Berlin Peace Conference - Spokesman
UNITED NATIONS (Sputnik) - UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres hopes his presence at the international conference on Libya in Berlin over the weekend will help end foreign interference in that country’s war and bolster peace negotiations between warring parties, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said during a press briefing.
"The secretary-general will be heading off to Berlin today to attend the Berlin Conference on Sunday being organized by the Germans," Dujarric told reporters on Friday. "What we hope comes out of Berlin is a renewed demonstration of international unity in supporting the intra-Libyan political process, ending foreign interference, leading to full respect for the UN arms embargo."The latest of over a half dozen Libyan peace conferences will
attempt to break a deadlock between the nation’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and the rebel Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar.
For the past nine months Haftar’s LNA have laid siege to the GNA in Tripoli in fighting that has killed hundreds of civilians, thousands of fighters and displaced thousands of people. Haftar’s advance, however, has been stalled on the outskirts of the capital for months.
Both Haftar and GNA leader Fayez Sarraj are expected to attend the conference in Berlin, according to the latest media reports.The GNA is backed by Turkey and Qatar, while Haftar, who
backs a rival administration in Libya’s east, has the support of neighboring Egypt, as well as Russia and the United Arab Emirates.
Libya has been locked in a civil war between rival armed groups since the 2011 overthrow of longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi by US- and EU-supported Islamic extremists.
Also at Friday's press briefing, Dujarric called for the immediate release of Siham Sergewa, an elected member of the House of Representatives, who was seized from her home in Benghazi at night six months ago. Since Sergewa’s violent abduction, her fate remains unknown, Dujarric said.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2...e---spokesman/
This is Putin’s world now.
"Here is what Vladimir Putin’s 2020 has looked like so far.
The Russian leader went to Damascus, Syria, to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a week ago and then flew to Istanbul the next day for the inauguration of a strategic pipeline that brings Russian natural gas to Turkey and Europe underneath the Black Sea, bypassing Ukraine. Standing next to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Putin called for restraint in Iran-U.S. tensions and for a ceasefire in Libya. Over the weekend, he received German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Moscow and got on the phone to call the leaders of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, countries that support opposing sides in the war in Libya, to make them an offer they could not refuse. By Monday, the Russian leader was receiving the warring factions in Libya in Moscow to broker a cease-fire.
It’s a frenzied and broad agenda for any leader. And it also tells us something about the new world order that is emerging.
While President Trump spends his time tweeting insults and threatening to start Middle Eastern wars, Russia is filling the vacuum in international diplomacy. In the case of Libya, ending a bloody conflict at the doorstep of Europe in an oil-rich country is a major deal. It could bring Erdogan and Putin even closer and force Europeans to start thinking in pragmatic terms about working with Russia on energy and security. As Europe starts thinking of a post-American world, Russia is gaining the prestige it never had.
Russia was always considered a disruptive power while the United States had a track record of establishing “order” in various parts of the world. Post-World War II European unity, supporting democracies after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the equilibrium of military power in Asia or even the efforts to transform the Middle East regimes were, for better of for worse, attempts by Washington to create a friendly and stable order in its own image.
America used to try to design the world, Russia used to try to sabotage those plans. Now things almost look the other way around.
Sure, Russia seems to be punching above its weight in terms of economic and diplomatic capacity, but it is shaping events nonetheless. In Syria, Putin altered the course of a civil war that the United States was watching from afar. In Ukraine, Russian intervention has changed the map and dashed Ukraine’s European dreams. In Venezuela, Moscow’s support has been crucial to maintain Nicolás Maduro in power. In the Middle East, Putin is the leader you want a selfie with.
The decline of U.S. hegemony has been long discussed — the late Harvard professor Samuel Huntington documented five waves of post-World War II American “declinism” back in 1988. His view was that the constant fear of American decline was what led to America’s impressive capacity for constant renewal.
But Huntington never bargained for a President Trump. Trump doesn’t believe in the U.S.-led liberal order or in its institutions. He has eviscerated the U.S. diplomatic capacity and undermined the idea of a U.S. global role among a substantial portion of the American public. The United States may still have the capacity for renewal, but under Trump, it doesn’t seem to want to — it no longer seems to have faith in itself or its own ideas.
Right now, the future for Libyans is unclear. If Putin manages to broker a ceasefire over the next few days, political negotiations will take place in Berlin. If all succeeds, Libya will likely emerge as another divided country. There’s always a bargain. For Syrians, Russia’s footprint meant having to learn to live with their torturer. For Ukraine, it was the end of European integration.
Russia will continue pushing for a world order in which the strong rule the weak and take their territory if they object. It will be an unhappy and unstable world where critics and dissidents are discredited and persecuted. An order in which authoritarianism proudly asserts its legitimacy over democracy."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ayworld&wpmm=1