Thread: Israeli army kills 17 Palestinians in Gaza protests

Originally Posted by sabang

I wonder if it will still be there in a century

"Can Israel survive in the long run?
The question is imprecise, since it could be interpreted in either of two ways:

Can Israel survive physically, ie can it avoid being physically destroyed by war or some other violent means?

Can Israel survive as a specifically Jewish state?

The answer to the first interpretation is almost certainly yes, for the reasons enumerated by Tim Benton.

The answer to the second interpretation is less clear. Israel is situated in the Middle East, in a sea of Arabs. Since its foundation, Israel has followed a policy of cutting itself off from its neighbours, preferring to see itself politically and culturally as part of the West. That preference is expressed in the joke that what Israelis would like to do if they could is disconnect Israel from its geographical location, tow it across the Atlantic and anchor it off the coast of Florida.

Although Israel has been at peace with Egypt and Jordan for several decades now, it has minimal contact with either of those countries. Israelis rarely visit those countries, and Egyptians and Jordanian rarely visit Israel. By contrast, large numbers of Israelis visit the West, and many live and work there. Israeli hippies like to go to India where they can indulge in drugs.

The question is whether that state of affairs can continue. Will Israel in the long-term be able to keep itself separate from its Middle Eastern environment? Will it be able permanently to prevent large-scale non-Jewish immigration that will dilute its Jewish character?

The experience of other Western countries suggest that it will not be able to. I remember Australia in the 1960s when it was an all-White country will minimal contact to the Asian environment in which it was geographically located, its main contacts being with Western countries, especially Britain. Today Australia has a large immigrant Asian population that is continually growing; most immigration to Australia today is from Asia and the Middle East."
Can Israel survive in the long run? - Quora

"The greatest threat to Israel may come from within, not without, as Carlstrom explains in his deft account of a nation’s identity crisis

Israel is surrounded by an array of ever-changing threats. But what if its most serious challenge comes from within?

There was once a national consensus in Israeli society: despite a left-right political split, its people were broadly secular and liberal. Over the past decade, the country has fractured into tribes with little shared understanding of what it means to be a Zionist—let alone an Israeli—and contesting the very notion of a ‘Jewish and democratic’ state.

While this shift has profound implications for Israel’s relationship with the broadly liberal Jewish diaspora, the greatest consequences will be felt at home. Israel’s tribes increasingly lead separate lives; even the army, once a great melting-pot, is now a political and cultural battleground. Tamir Pardo, former head of Mossad, has warned of the risk of civil war.

Gregg Carlstrom maps this conflict, from cosmopolitan Tel Aviv to the hilltops of the West Bank, and asks a pressing question: will the Middle East’s strongest power survive its own internal contradictions?"

How Long Will Israel Survive? | Hurst Publishers

Seems the question has been often asked Sab without anything close to a concensus.
Reckon we will know in 100 years.

Since its foundation, Israel has followed a policy of cutting itself off from its neighbours,

With the obvious exception of Palestine, which it is systematically colonising. I would put it to you, or any reasonable person, that they cannot pursue an expansionist, colonial policy and remain 'Israel as a Jewish state'. I suppose you could say "Israel as an apartheid state", if you think that is sustainable- but I explicitly do not.

Can Israel survive physically, ie can it avoid being physically destroyed by war or some other violent means?

You say yes, based on the obvious power imbalance presented by it's modern military + security guarantees and enormous financial assistance from the US. Hard to argue with that really- as of Now. But you will note my question applied to the future- I mentioned a century, but lets say within a century.

I do indeed think that Israel is putting it's long term survivability at risk- and hasten to add, that is not what I want to see at all. lets look at the changes, plus one constant-

• By 2050, according to PWC, the US will be the worlds third largest economy- after China and India. Military power inevitably follows. It's hegemonic ability to unilaterally protect Israel against all threats will certainly be less, shall we say, monopolistic.
• Iran will be a considerably more significant regional and global power too. Something Israel fears, tries to slow- but ultimately will not be able to prevent. It will likely be nuclear armed too.
• The Jewish diaspora is more and more becoming pissed off with, and alienated from Israel. I can see the younger diaspora Jews becoming less generous with their charity- or certainly more conditional, and thus a lot more proactive in influencing domestic Israeli policy. The outcry from international Jews right now is heartening actually- they are not afraid to speak their minds, or their disgust.
• How long can Europe be counted on to kowtow to US foreign policy, ie run cover for Israel, or at least look the other way? It is declining as a world power bloc, and much of it's population growth is Muslim. Political influence will inevitably follow- as indeed is happening now. Much of the population already deeply resents their governments pandering policy towards Israel- and this percentage inevitably is growing and gaining more political sway.
• How long will China, soon to be the worlds largest player, be content to sit back and be non-interventionist as it cements it's power and diplomatic sway vs a decidedly interventionist USA? And of course there is India- already virulently and outspokenly anti-Israel.
• I think the US has it's hands full with those two- how much more money and international goodwill can it afford to waste on an Israel that ignores it, even boasts about dominating it politically?
• How long can the US afford to stay this 'Tide in the affairs of Men' by vast amounts of military spending, foreign garrisoning, and vast amounts of aid to an Israel that thumbs it's nose blatantly at both US and World opinion? How long can US aid and protection remain unconditional?

And then of course there is the Constant. Well, two actually (although one is a bit of a MAD/ Armageddon scenario)-

• Israel is widely despised worldwide, and that's a Fact. Because of it's own actions too- not anti-Semitism, although that sadly does still exist. Besides the US, it has few friends left really. In 'anglo' Australia for example, our government is a great friend of Israel- but the majority of our people certainly are not. The most common view is that it is an embarassment and a stinging rebuke to our western Democratic system and it's principles. Israels neighbours in particular don't like it- they utterly despise it. I wonder why?
• If the shit really hits the fan, how many H bombs would it take to effectively destroy Israel as a political entity? not many I wager. Easy to dismiss this as sensationalist nonsense- but doesn't World history teach us that we can not dismiss this possibility? And hey, how many American Christians, and religious Jews, preach Armageddon anyway?

So I think Israel &/or it's dwindling group of friends thinking that it's current course is sustainable in the long run, is kinda like that Dutch kid sticking his finger in the dyke. I think they are being very stupid frankly, and short sighted. Not to mention cruel, immoral, war and international criminals, and trespassers. The USA with it's unconditional aid policy only exacerbates this by feeding and subsidising their short sighted pigheadedness- but unfortunately the Jewish lobbies, MI complex, and media influence has got such a bipartisan grip on US foreign policy, it is difficult to see that changing short term.



So waddya think?