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  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    I am not trying to insult you but if you don't even know that the US issues 30 year bonds then I should not even bother replying. The US still issues 30 year bonds.
    actually my bad, the US treasury did cease to issue 30yr bond since 2001, but apparently it does again since 2006, apparently demand was too great for the 30yr bond so it was resumed. The 10yr notes was the replacement for a while. Regardless, the argument stand, so focusing on a detail to avoid answering your other delusions is pointless.

    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    You don't even know the basics of the bond market.


    right, but again I don't fall into your "paranoiac" scenario and your misunderstanding of the bond market. Like I said, you don't understand what bonds do on a bigger scale, and that's what counts.

    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Interest rates have been falling for 30 years, in other words, bond prices have been RISING for 30 years.
    hardly, interest rates went up in 2005, and a few times before, creating mini-crash for the bond markets, like in the 90s. Of course if you would actually follow bonds for a long time, you would know that

    regardless, new issues are sold at par or sometimes above par so the capital gains doesn't look like much of a bubble as you make it to be. And as you explained the mechanics between a bond price and the coupon, and the yield, the rise in price is perfectly justified and mechanical and arbitrage free, so again hardly a bubble based on no fundamentals, quite au contraire.

    You obviously have no understanding of bond markets beyond very basic mechanics, an explanation you could get anywhere, even from wiki,

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    I am not trying to insult you but if you don't even know that the US issues 30 year bonds then I should not even bother replying. The US still issues 30 year bonds.
    actually my bad, the US treasury did cease to issue 30yr bond since 2001, but apparently it does again since 2006, apparently demand was too great for the 30yr bond so it was resumed. The 10yr notes was the replacement for a while. Regardless, the argument stand, so focusing on a detail to avoid answering your other delusions is pointless.

    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    You don't even know the basics of the bond market.


    right, but again I don't fall into your "paranoiac" scenario and your misunderstanding of the bond market. Like I said, you don't understand what bonds do on a bigger scale, and that's what counts.

    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Interest rates have been falling for 30 years, in other words, bond prices have been RISING for 30 years.
    hardly, interest rates went up in 2005, and a few times before, creating mini-crash for the bond markets, like in the 90s. Of course if you would actually follow bonds for a long time, you would know that

    regardless, new issues are sold at par or sometimes above par so the capital gains doesn't look like much of a bubble as you make it to be. And as you explained the mechanics between a bond price and the coupon, and the yield, the rise in price is perfectly justified and mechanical and arbitrage free, so again hardly a bubble based on no fundamentals, quite au contraire.

    You obviously have no understanding of bond markets beyond very basic mechanics, an explanation you could get anywhere, even from wiki,
    Like I said before, the unmolested low for gold in 2000 was not $255. It was only the announced sales and dumping of the UK gold by Gordon Brown (to bail out the LBMA)that brought the price that low.

    $500 gold to $1200 gold over a ten year period where derivative markets expanded ten fold and where the Fed balance sheet doubled, is not an over heated market.

    ^also I forgot to mention, that was also a ten year period where central banks all over the world where selling gold and mine production was declining. Central banks just started buying gold.

    Gold is cheap and treasuries reek of a bubble.

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Gold is not a commodity, it is a currency.
    Then why is it traded on the commodities exchange? It is not a currency. It has been an asset used to backup currency, but not since Nixon in the US.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by sccrhound View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Gold is not a commodity, it is a currency.
    Then why is it traded on the commodities exchange? It is not a currency. It has been an asset used to backup currency, but not since Nixon in the US.
    Lumber is also traded on a commodities exchange so how does that make paper a currency and gold not ?

  5. #155
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    socal, you seem to be feeding yourself with BS from blogs you are reading,

    commodities are not a currency, even though they are regarded by some as an exchange rate, which is something different. That could explain your confusion here,

    again, you are using the wrong benchmark to "value" Gold, a low is only the low until the next low, so at the end using the "low benchmark" for a buy decision is a bit naive, even though it could be taken into consideration

    the low interest rates has been feeding bubbles into all asset class, that day might eventually end as soon as bonds start paying higher yield or investors need something else.

    Fundamentals are weak, it's all based on perception

  6. #156
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    [quote=Butterfly;1536761]socal, you seem to be feeding yourself with BS from blogs you are reading,

    commodities are not a currency, even though they are regarded by some as an exchange rate, which is something different. That could explain your confusion here,
    Gold is not a commodity, it is a currency. You are the one that is confused here, not me. Gold is the only real money. Paper fiat money has no intrinsic value.

    again, you are using the wrong benchmark to "value" Gold, a low is only the low until the next low, so at the end using the "low benchmark" for a buy decision is a bit naive, even though it could be taken into consideration
    Gold is the only consistent currency that cannot be debased through inflation and dilution. Notice how the DOW industrial average has not moved in 10 years ? Anyone who is pricing the DOW in gold knows that it was only fiat currency arbitrage that gave the DOW an unsustainable lift, not sustainable growth. This is a chart priced in gold, not constantly fluctuating US dollars




    the low interest rates has been feeding bubbles into all asset class, that day might eventually end as soon as bonds start paying higher yield or investors need something else.

    Fundamentals are weak, it's all based on perception
    Fundamentals could not be worse for treasuries.

    Gold is cheap.
    Last edited by socal; 25-08-2010 at 04:02 AM.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Gold is cheap.
    Well it's cheaper than it was when I bought it at least.

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Master Cool View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Gold is cheap.
    Well it's cheaper than it was when I bought it at least.
    I felt the same way when I bought at $750 and the price dropped to $690.

  9. #159
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    If only I had bought oats.

  10. #160
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    jesus, the DJIA in Gold grams

    what's next ? GDP in Gold grams ?

  11. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Master Cool View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Gold is cheap.
    Well it's cheaper than it was when I bought it at least.

    Due to the strenght of the bht ?

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Master Cool View Post
    If only I had bought oats.
    If you have that day trading mindset and dont have the wisdom to invest for the medium to long term then you will fail. That goes for any investment.

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Master Cool View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Gold is cheap.
    Well it's cheaper than it was when I bought it at least.
    China and India's season for gold buying just upon us, you will get your chance to get out without loss or make a little profit.

  14. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bower View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Master Cool View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Gold is cheap.
    Well it's cheaper than it was when I bought it at least.

    Due to the strenght of the bht ?
    Due to it being 200b less than it was when I bought it.

  15. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Master Cool View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bower View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Master Cool View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Gold is cheap.
    Well it's cheaper than it was when I bought it at least.

    Due to the strenght of the bht ?
    Due to it being 200b less than it was when I bought it.
    gold is portable, all you have to do is fly to a country who's currency rose against the baht and you will have a profit.

  16. #166
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    An interesting story about gold from early August...

    Tons of gold imports turn to dust on arrival

    Gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection



    Tons of gold imports turn to dust on arrival - Emirates24|7

  17. #167
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    "Tis the will of Allah. . .

  18. #168
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    Don't speak so quickly. Here's one for the USA just out...

    Ron Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed

    Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) said he plans to introduce legislation next year to force an audit of U.S. holdings of gold.
    Paul, a longtime critic of the Federal Reserve and U.S. monetary policy, said he believes it's "a possibility" that there might not actually be any gold in the vaults of Fort Knox or the New York Federal Reserve bank.

    Ron Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed - The Hill's Blog Briefing Room

  19. #169
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    When I was posting on some right wing forums in 2006 and 2007 a lot of guys were telling people to stock up on gold, silver, guns, and ammo. A lot of people thought they were just a bunch of paranoid kooks at the time, but I luckily took their advice. Some people are saying gold is going to 1500 an ounce in the near future, fingers crossed. Only mistake I made listening to them right wing kooks is the bomb shelter I built in my yard.

  20. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Gribbs View Post
    When I was posting on some right wing forums in 2006 and 2007 a lot of guys were telling people to stock up on gold, silver, guns, and ammo. A lot of people thought they were just a bunch of paranoid kooks at the time, but I luckily took their advice. Some people are saying gold is going to 1500 an ounce in the near future, fingers crossed. Only mistake I made listening to them right wing kooks is the bomb shelter I built in my yard.
    Full disclosure, I own over a pound of gold.

    From another thread, I noticed that you are one of those muslim terror apologists. Do you already have the bomb shelter because one of your muslim buddies let you in on their future plans ?

  21. #171
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    socal, how is your stock pile of guns ? tell us about it,

    and how are you going to retrieve your Gold once the world would be upside down and the banks are closed

  22. #172
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    Please, this is the lounge, not MKP.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Gribbs View Post
    When I was posting on some right wing forums in 2006 and 2007 a lot of guys were telling people to stock up on gold, silver, guns, and ammo. A lot of people thought they were just a bunch of paranoid kooks at the time, but I luckily took their advice. Some people are saying gold is going to 1500 an ounce in the near future, fingers crossed. Only mistake I made listening to them right wing kooks is the bomb shelter I built in my yard.

  23. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    socal, how is your stock pile of guns ? tell us about it,

    and how are you going to retrieve your Gold once the world would be upside down and the banks are closed
    I own gold for one reason, because I am an expert and a believer in the science of Austrian economics.

    I own no guns, I am not calling for the end of the world. Gold is a good investment, you need to be long gold here.

    If it gets as bad as YOU say it will (world upside down, banks closed) then the gold will be used to recapitalize new banks, at interest. If it doesn't get that bad, rich people and rich central banks and sovereign wealth funds will fight for it and they have a hell of allot more money then any of us do.

    Gold is high concentrated wealth, grab some before the big boys start fighting over it.

  24. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    I own gold for one reason, because I am an expert and a believer in the science of Austrian economics.
    you are an expert of Economics after only studying Austrian Economics for 2 years ?

    quite a claim

  25. #175
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    Just for a little music to lift the mood.


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