Thread: Buying Gold with my Thai savings?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Gold is hitting 2012 highs this morning...

So, Captain Hindsight, will you book me 1000/1 that gold will be worth less than now in 6 months time (in USD)?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

yeah, will test first the recommendations on a virtual portfolio

Butters betting with monopoly money

Originally Posted by socal

90% chance it will breach $1900 by then.

I'll also take 10/1 it'll be below $1900 USD in 6 months from now.

Originally Posted by 9999

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Gold is hitting 2012 highs this morning...

So, Captain Hindsight, will you book me 1000/1 that gold will be worth less than now in 6 months time (in USD)?

I'm not trying to brag or look smart. Basically, I am very certain how this is all going to play out. I've done hours and hours of reading about this shit since 2008. I've you've went through and understood all of the material that I have, you would be just as certain as me. I've posted allot of stuff on this thread that should give a hint. I'm sure some people get it.

It is a miracle that gold is as cheap as it is.

I'm not sure how long you have followed this thread but the one caveat is the COMEX. The physical gold price is derived from the futures market. If the COMEX defaults (Somebody cannot get delivery of physical) then the contracts on the COMEX will be bust. This will show up as a plummeting gold price when really, its just a plummeting derivative price. At that point, physical will be priceless for a period of time and the emerging price will be there for all to see and it will be many multiples of what COMEX will print. As you may know, there is 100 contracts on the COMEX for every one ounce of physical gold.

But assuming the COMEX keeps it together for another 6 months then Yeah, ill take those odds.

Originally Posted by 9999

Originally Posted by socal

90% chance it will breach $1900 by then.

I'll also take 10/1 it'll be below $1900 USD in 6 months from now.

I'm not a gambler but whatever you say...You are sure being generous with time. 6 months sure makes it easy.

Originally Posted by draco888

Volatility is bad for levered ETF's though, very bad.

It's good if you catch the right side. I'll never understand why these highly levered derivatives are fine and dandy in countries with strict gambling laws.

Originally Posted by socal

I'm not trying to brag or look smart. Basically, I am very certain how this is all going to play out. I've done hours and hours of reading about this shit since 2008.

That's like sayong "I know how this football game will pan out. I've been following the sport all my life, and know everything about these two teams intimately"....you're a bit cocky coz you called gold early Socal but sooner or later you'll be caught with your pants down making big calls purporting them as certainties.

Originally Posted by socal

But assuming the COMEX keeps it together for another 6 months then Yeah, ill take those odds.

The point of the wager was to bet now on what will happen in 6 months. So you're willing to gamble 1/10 that COMEX 'keeps it together'?

Originally Posted by 9999

Originally Posted by Butterfly

yeah, will test first the recommendations on a virtual portfolio

Butters betting with monopoly money

I am testing the validity of their recommendations first, I suspect their claims is all bogus

a bit like socal calling Gold above 10,000 USD

Originally Posted by draco888

Volatility is bad for levered ETF's though, very bad.

it's great for options trading though,

I watched the trades recommendations last night, I was about to buy a few low from their recommendations on ARCA, but the fucking things went up 5% in the first hours of the trade,

damn already priced out, and they are up 10% in one day

Originally Posted by draco888

the few times i have tried the search function seemingly throws out entirely random threads with no connection to the search term at all.

that is the beauty of it, you can find things you did not even realise existed

Originally Posted by 9999

but sooner or later you'll be caught with your pants down

he already has been caught by a few ladyboys!

Originally Posted by Butterfly

I am testing the validity of their recommendations first, I suspect their claims is all bogus

Certainly in my chosen 'investment' vehicles, whenever someone is selling something, it's bogus. If it works, why sell it? Especially where liquidity is limited which not sure the case with whatever this scheme is trading. If there's was plenty of liquidity then yeah I could see why you would trade it heavily yourself and also sell the info.

Originally Posted by DrAndy

there are too many people like yourself, relying on their recommendations and buying

Yes it looks like they are hot onto this stuff and you need a quick trigger finger. Not a game for aged men. So it probably comes down to whether or not he can realistically enter the market at the prices they recommend.

I'm sure Butters is smart enough to have he funny money platform operate in a realistic trading environment where slippage and liquidity come into play.

It must be nice to set yourself up as a trading Guru and have people follow your recommendatons

it is quite common to buy certain shares then afterwards say what a good buy they are

the price goes up, you sell and move on

Originally Posted by DrAndy

the price is self fulfilling

Not necessarily. The loop-hole prices could be getting beaten into efficiency. In which case these type of signals aren't usually valid for very long, as the market corrects itself.

^^ Or cash in on a short-term edge, and when it is starting to correct, sell the data and info.

Originally Posted by OhOh

How you think anyone will pay out on an online net between unknown internet posters is beyond me and frankly is a juvenile expectation.

I don't think we ever intend to actually bet (though if Socal wanted a small wager I'd take him on his word - the price is worth the risk and he seems like a man of his word), the reason I asked for odds is to get an assessment, and talk about taking those odds for the purpose of discussion. There's a guy saying he'd lay 10/1 on gold being under $1900 USD in 6 months, and I'm saying that's a bargain price.

Originally Posted by OhOh

If you believe gold is in the bubble stage, and at the top, it could reduce in value. To what value nobody knows. My suggestion is to take the plunge and buy physical gold but "it's up to you"

I changed my physical gold into physical silver as I perceive silver as a better buy than gold right now. Personally I would not buy gold at the current price at this point in time. All over (physical) silver like a rash though.

^ as you say silver appears to be making more profit at the moment but it also has a history of more volatility.

Enjoy the ride.

Originally Posted by DrAndy

the price is self fulfilling

not in a liquid market,

the microcap stocks were famous for price manipulation because volume was so low, another reason why following buy recommendations for a microcap illiquid stock is a major red flag. As an investor though, it could be a great bargain and an opportunity and the last thing you want is to advertise it to the world.

For larger cap companies, it's the other way around actually. If you are a research house and you don't recommend the Apple or MSFT or IBM, your clients will look at you strangely and suspiciously.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

not necessarily. Investing doesn't mean you have the time to do proper research, and some companies will do that for you at a price

One of the mrs. out-sourcing business (I'm a silent partner) projects is doing pretty much that; simple number crunching for an investment firm. We just provide raw data though, and they use that to make their assessments.

I don't need to tell you that the sales side of investing is full of shysters, some markets more than others. We've been over boiler rooms before. Was good to see a heap of them been taken down in Thailand recently.