Thread: Buying Gold with my Thai savings?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

Why? Are you looking to buy in?

hardly, but it will signal correlation and covariance changes across a number of assets, and that's when things get interesting in terms of buy signals

But you didn't detect any buy signals in gold over the last decade?

Originally Posted by draco888

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

Why? Are you looking to buy in?

hardly, but it will signal correlation and covariance changes across a number of assets, and that's when things get interesting in terms of buy signals

But you didn't detect any buy signals in gold over the last decade?

Gold always burns anyone who tries to trade it based on technicals. I remember every techy and their dog was bearish just before India bought that gold from the IMF at an all time high(to the best of my memory) It was at $1040 I think.. That led to the rally all the way to the old high of $1227 that stuck for quite awhile.

Originally Posted by draco888

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

Why? Are you looking to buy in?

hardly, but it will signal correlation and covariance changes across a number of assets, and that's when things get interesting in terms of buy signals

But you didn't detect any buy signals in gold over the last decade?

like I said, there were better performing assets with better correlations than Gold

I do like Gold as jewelry though and I did bought some over the last decade

Originally Posted by socal

We had this discusion when gold was under 1000.

again you are making up shit, as usual

I remember telling you that Gold could reach 2,000 and yet I would still not go for it

you could tell it will go to 10,000 and I wouldn't still go for it

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by socal

We had this discusion when gold was under 1000.

again you are making up shit, as usual

I remember telling you that Gold could reach 2,000 and yet I would still not go for it

you could tell it will go to 10,000 and I wouldn't still go for it

So 10k is your new high water mark

Some people are idiots....

Originally Posted by draco888

such as? and did you buy them?

such as many and yes I bought some

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

such as? and did you buy them?

such as many and yes I bought some

thought that would be the response. I've only ever read 2 recommendations of yours:

1. Buy nuclear power plant shares 28 April 2008

2. Don't buy gold

28-04-2008, 11:16 AM

#9 (permalink)

Butterfly
Suspended Member


or Nuclear Power Plant stocks,

so how is that going for you?

PowerShares Global Nuclear Port ETF Chart - Yahoo! Finance

so basically within 6 months of your recommendation global nuclear shares lost 50%

running total since your advice gold up 100% and nuclear down 40%. Not really that great to have followed your advice then. Hope the poor guy asking for opinions didn't actually follow your advice.

Originally Posted by socal

I was right , you were dead wrong. So your guess isn't worth a pinch of coon shit

OK the SoCal, over to you. What odds would you give me the the price of gold will be higher / lower than it is now in terms of USD, in 6 months time?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

I did one exception in the Thai Stock thread though, some went 100% from my original recommendation if I remember correctly, but since you like to search the forum, I will let you find out by yourself.

Yes my wife had a little dabble based on some of your SET rambles, she thought they made sense (not just you but a few other posters). Not sure the specifics but she's in front.

Originally Posted by 9999

Originally Posted by draco888

running total since your advice gold up 100% and nuclear down 40%. Not really that great to have followed your advice then. Hope the poor guy asking for opinions didn't actually follow your advice.

That's pretty harsh. 0-2 is hardly cause to write a guy off. I'd not want to take advice off anyone who considers this a sample size Butters has given some good insight over the years particularly on the SET if I recall correctly but you need to read between the lines he'll never give it to you straight.

I didn't say it was a good sample size, merely all that I had read. I have not seen any SET recommendations.

Originally Posted by draco888

I have not seen any SET recommendations.

You should look it up, interesting and insightful stuff from some other posters.

As for Butter's 'gold' reccomendations, he simply abstains from the market, as it's not to his liking. It's not like he told anyone to short gold. And to his credit, he did say some gold correlations were a buy, at the start.

So that leaves it 0-1. The nuclear thing was unfortunate, Fukishima can't have helped. Wasn't it an earthquake in Japan that caused that Rogue Trader fellow to dust off an entire major British bank?

Originally Posted by draco888

I didn't say it was a good sample size, merely all that I had read

And went on to draw conclusions from said sample.

Just don't listen to Butters when it comes to computers.

[quote=9999;2229637]

Originally Posted by draco888

So that leaves it 0-1. The nuclear thing was unfortunate, Fukishima can't have helped.

what connection does a 50% fall in 2008 have to do with Fukishima?

[quote=9999;2229637]

Originally Posted by draco888

Originally Posted by draco888

I didn't say it was a good sample size, merely all that I had read

And went on to draw conclusions from said sample.

are you saying you do not form impressions or have opinions until you have collected a statistically significant sample size?

Originally Posted by draco888

are you saying you do not form impressions or have opinions until you have collected a statistically significant sample size?

To an extent, yes. I wouldn't 'significant'. I would certainly not base an opinion on one bad call that was rationalized before the fact. But I don't make the mistake of abstaining due to lack of data. I'm no nit. But a sample of one will never do, sorry.

All I'm saying is it's not fair to cherry pick Butters' bad calls without looking at the whole picture.

By the same token a guy could go 5-0 on calls but you could still know he's talking out of his arse and just getting lucky.

Originally Posted by 9999

Originally Posted by socal

I was right , you were dead wrong. So your guess isn't worth a pinch of coon shit

OK the SoCal, over to you. What odds would you give me the the price of gold will be higher / lower than it is now in terms of USD, in 6 months time?

100% chance that it will be higher in 6 months. 90% chance it will breach $1900 by then.

Originally Posted by socal

100% chance that it will be higher in 6 months. 90% chance it will breach $1900 by then.

sounds good

Originally Posted by 9999

Originally Posted by draco888

are you saying you do not form impressions or have opinions until you have collected a statistically significant sample size?

All I'm saying is it's not fair to cherry pick Butters' bad calls without looking at the whole picture.

By the same token a guy could go 5-0 on calls but you could still know he's talking out of his arse and just getting lucky.

i was not cherry picking, that was all i had genuinely read. im more than willing to give credit where it is due.

yes everyone is sometimes lucky, sometimes unlucky.........

draco888, you didn't search really hard, and I think you were just trying to have a go at me for whatever reason,

don't think you were stupid enough to draw a conclusion on 2 simple examples, I guess you were just looking for a fight

anyway, Nuclear stocks have been down 80% for the last 4 years, thought of buying some back, but they seem to be completely out of favor for now.

Will try the market timing thing instead,

Originally Posted by Butterfly

draco888, you didn't search really hard, and I think you were just trying to have a go at me for whatever reason,

don't think you were stupid enough to draw a conclusion on 2 simple examples, I guess you were just looking for a fight

anyway, Nuclear stocks have been down 80% for the last 4 years, thought of buying some back, but they seem to be completely out of favor for now.

Will try the market timing thing instead,

you are right i didn't search hard at all but was not trying to have a go. i dont know how anyone searches for anything here, on the few times i have tried the search function seemingly throws out entirely random threads with no connection to the search term at all.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

draco888,

Will try the market timing thing instead,

good luck with that, I've only ever seen levered ETF's get killed with volatility even when you get the direction right.

Gold is hitting 2012 highs this morning...

Originally Posted by draco888

good luck with that, I've only ever seen levered ETF's get killed with volatility even when you get the direction right.

yeah, will test first the recommendations on a virtual portfolio

volatility is good, actually working on finding volatile candidates so I can build equity options strategy around them

I did a few tests in 2009 and portfolios of options were going 40% in 2 weeks, had to sell quickly as those things can crash rapidly