Thread: Buying Gold with my Thai savings?

I dont know if any of the investors in here are UK residents but watch the budget and Capital Gains Tax. pre 1837* gold coins in the UK are exempt from CGT, this may or may not change. This explains the current premium being paid on full and half sovereigns, and to some extent Britannias.

*You cannot pay CGT on legal tender, it would need a change in the law, but its all possible.

I'd buy silver bullion because it's price ratio to gold is historically low. It's also a dual purpose metal - in times of crisis it goes up with gold but when there's economic expansion it's in demand as an industrial metal. The posters who recommend Thai stocks that have a good dividend history are also onto something.

^ I agree silver looks good but i like to hold the gold and silver is too bulky.
Gold still looks good, quiet time now until the Indian wedding season etc
I will still buy in the dips and sticking to UK gold coins which stayed CGT exempt after the budget.

A massive 350b per baht weight increase since I bought me 2 bahts worth.

700b bj down SoL innit.

Sounds ok, youd like someone to knock on your door and give you 700bht every three weeks !

Good luck to you.

some rumors have it that Gold will hit 2000 USD soon, not sure if you can take this seriously

A lot of crap advice on this thread, so I'll add some more: buy gold.

The price is high, yes. But look at Oil and Cash (& the economy)... Buying a condo for a couple of years then reselling is full of risks...

Gold will dip, but will consistently rise over the next, well, longtime. I'm putting 200,000 into gold this/next week, but thinking of a solid investment, ease of cashing up, etc. The OP's original thought was very solid; don't be put off by the muppets. Many (most?) rich Thais keep a lot of gold in safety deposit boxes - these folk are much smarter than most 'foreign inverstment experts' living in LOS (not exactly Monaco is it...).

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by Humbert

Isn't pretty fair to say that when equities turn down, commodity prices go up because investors are looking for a safe haven?

not really, there might be some short term correlations, but they can reverse very quickly, that is equities will go up with commodities price before reversing again or going flat (no correlation)

the level of interest rates change and inflation is a better predictor of equities performance,

Commodities have long cycle, eventually they crash and they do nothing for long period of time. You certainly don't want to be caught in that cycle when they do. However, some argue that they are necessary as a diversification strategy, even though they are not regarded as an asset class.

Don't put all your money into them though, being long on Gold with 100% of your saving is suicidal.

Papillion, you really are a cnut. Suggesting you know what you're talking about while dishing out this complete shite is despicable...

OP, when Papillion speaks, do the opposite and you'll be okay. Check with a rich person what they do with their money, not a complte farking tosseur like Papillion... My brother is a successful dealer working for himself: I had a long chat with him about gold: going long is a winner - check history! Going 100% of your savings into anything is very foolish...

^^ yes a lot of rich Thai also keep hundreds of empty condos

what was your point again ? oh yeah, gold, and how to buy an overvalued asset and being fucked eventually

don't listen to fools and hype, when the public is starting to buy gold, dotcom, oil stocks, it's time to dump your holdings

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

Papillion, you really are a cnut. Suggesting you know what you're talking about while dishing out this complete shite is despicable...

another of your brilliant issaan logic

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

My brother is a successful dealer working for himself: I had a long chat with him about gold: going long is a winner - check history! Going 100% of your savings into anything is very foolish...

he must have been doing a killing in the last 20 years when gold was flat

sounds like the typical trend follower, a recipe for investment disaster

Do I buy a condo, or do I buy gold ? Too much to lose if I make the wrong decision.

^ it seems in Thailand, that's basically the only asset allocation strategy if you don't want to hold other risk assets like Stocks or Bonds

you are competiting with the locals on that market, so it's bound to be overvalued eventually

when the mean reverting effect start to kick in, there are going to be some real pain and fortune lost

Papillion is a reknowned twat across all topics... Not worth entering a discussion with because he's a fool of the highest order.

I've cut a pasted the thoughts of someone who makes a lot of money and is an expert on the subject:

"a balanced portfolio never has all your money in one place, diversification is important. However, you do not have a portfolio, but are simply looking to make a better return on an investment than a 0% interest rate, same as everybody else. Stocks, ie equities, shares, are well overpriced and the markets have got too far ahead of themselves, due to the huge amounts of stimulus that has been pumped into the economy over the last 18 months. The global economy is still in a shit state of affairs and lots believe that we are headed for a double dip recession (which is what i have been saying since september last year). Basically, when interest rates are zero, the big players use currencies as a carry trade, the japanese yen was always the biggest carry trade, but for the last 12 -18 months, it has been the $. Basically, the way the carry trade works is that big institutions borrow $ at zero interest and re-invest in other instruments, equities, commodities etc, making them a nice return at no borrowing cost. This is the reason that the markets soared over the last year, because when the economy is shit and there is no chance of an interest rate rise, they can continue to borrow $ at no cost and make money wherever they invest it. Over the last few months there has been some better data from the US, which meant that the carry trade started to unwind a bit, so basically they took money out of equities and started to pay back some $, as the fear of an interest rate rise heightened. Hence the $ has soared as this money has been paid back into it. The $ also acts as a "safe haven" play, so others have started to buy $, which has served to make it even stronger. Gold is also a very well known safe haven, so it has seen huge investment too, both by the carry trade and people seeking an alternative to other, more risky investments. The other side of things now, is the fear of an inflation/deflation nightmare, because interest rates have been at zero for so long, the fear is that when data is repeatedly better, inflation will soar very quickly and get out of control. Basically, paper money has very little value to most people at the moment, due to the large amounts of stimulus the economy has received and each time things get worse again, the central banks simply print a load more paper and throw it into the sytem, hoping the bad things will go away, but this is simply creating a big equity bubble and making things worse. The fear of an interest rate rise is now higher than ever and contrary to it being a good thing, the likely outcome of an interest rate rise and reduction of stimulus in the economy is likely to crash the equities markets and the $ and Gold will soar higher. So basically, as the bubble gets bigger, people invest in Gold and the $, knowing that it has to pop sooner or later and when it does pop, more people than ever will look to the $ and Gold as an alternative investment, so they can't really lose."

OP, make of it what you will, and good luck.

hilarious

Originally Posted by Blake7

^ already overpriced

No its not. People said that when it was $700. You have no idea, fiat currencies like the US dollar are going down, gold is not necessarily going up.

I just traded some fiat scrap for a Kg of silver today.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

My brother is a successful dealer working for himself: I had a long chat with him about gold: going long is a winner - check history! Going 100% of your savings into anything is very foolish...

he must have been doing a killing in the last 20 years when gold was flat

sounds like the typical trend follower, a recipe for investment disaster

5555, Just when the sheeple like you thought you had this bubble thing figured out, along come Ben Bernanke with the fiat bubble. Bubbles only exist when people dont know they are in them.

Originally Posted by The Master Cool

If I was to analyse this 30 yr history chart for example, it's now about the same height as in 1981, if it followed suit and lost 50% of its value in two years, I'd be crying into my Lao Khao.

Interest rates where 20% in the 80's. The last time I checked, interest rates where at ZERO.

The real inflation adjusted 1981 high for gold is $2300. And people think gold is over priced

Originally Posted by Humbert

http://www.goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

Gold has been steadily increasing in price for the last 20 years.
It has come up 300 baht in the last week. Very good investment if you buy on the dips.

no actually only the last 10 years.

If you bought gold in 2000 then you would have a 500% gain now, if you bought the Nasdaq, DOW or S & P or held US dollars you are looking at losses today.

Fiat currencies are going down.

well, will see. I suspect a few would be crying in their beers once they loose 50% of their investment in a gold crash that will take another 20 years to wait for a recovery

trend following is always followed by disaster, see oil and dotcom and even properties

the odds are against gold, but again never underestimate investor foolishness, so Gold might indeed reach 2000 USD

Originally Posted by Butterfly

well, will see. I suspect a few would be crying in their beers once they loose 50% of their investment in a gold crash that will take another 20 years to wait for a recovery

trend following is always followed by disaster, see oil and dotcom and even properties

the odds are against gold, but again never underestimate investor foolishness, so Gold might indeed reach 2000 USD

You still don't get it. The bubble is the currency that you are pricing gold in. Gold has been increasing for 10 years but US treasury's have been increasing in value for 30 years. So what is the bubble ? I would say US treasury's but for some reason you think gold is the bubble.

Gold production cannot possibly match the increase in the US monetary base so US dollars (world reserve currency) must devalue substantially against gold. This is what is happening now.

There is another factor to be remembered, if you dont have an account with a bullion dealer. The sale of coins and hallmarked items is instant. You can take your gold and get cash on the spot. No middle men, no dealers fees. Most PM dealers will want a 6% margin. Its not difficult to build that into your exposure against a fall.
Again this is why holding gold in coins is best IMO. Coins cannot be faked to a degree that would trick a dealer and with the right kit you cannot be fooled into buying fakes.

Must have dropped 500b yesterday afternoon.

Just checked this morning and it's up 50b..... to 18,600!

Less than the price I bought it.

The chinese 18 year olds, the champagne, the nuru orgies. All just a distant dream at the moment.

Originally Posted by socal

You still don't get it. The bubble is the currency that you are pricing gold in. Gold has been increasing for 10 years but US treasury's have been increasing in value for 30 years. So what is the bubble ? I would say US treasury's but for some reason you think gold is the bubble.

you are obviously confusing normal growth with bubble ? a bubble is a rapid price appreciation based on no fundamentals, just hysteria. US Treasury have real demand, too long here to develop, investigate the repo market for one, that will start giving you a few clues.

Originally Posted by socal

Gold production cannot possibly match the increase in the US monetary base so US dollars (world reserve currency) must devalue substantially against gold. This is what is happening now.

and here lies your ignorance, since when we are still on a Gold standard for monetary policy ?

still living in the past, aren't we

Originally Posted by The Master Cool

The chinese 18 year olds, the champagne, the nuru orgies. All just a distant dream at the moment.

you have enter into a speculative instrument, above all in Thailand, so you have to accept the huge risk you are taking, that risk is volatility and the current price level. IMO, not a good value for the risk you are taking, but hey, those gold coins do look nice

it would be interesting to see what happens when interest rate rise, gold would be competiting with fixed income instruments and that could lead to price deflation, even for gold, and a crash in oil. Remember oil when it was 150 USD and it couldn't go down and it would go 300 ?