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  1. #2551
    I am in Jail
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    so the terms will be as followed, roughly:

    200 liability to 999, which is an asset for me to compensate the 1000 benchmark

    since it's a liability, you can't donate it to charity directly yet. It will be your equity tranche to pay for the first 200 USD changes in your favor.

    Ex 1: Spot is 1200 after 6 months, your liability is 200, your paper gain is 200, I owe you 0
    Ex 2: Spot is 800 after 6 months, your liability is 200, your paper loss is 200, you owe me 400 USD
    Ex 3: Spot is 1400 after 6 months, your liability is 200, your paper gain is 400, I owe you 200 USD

    does it sound fair to you ?
    at the end of June it was about 1,330 USD

    so the SWAP Gain is about 330 USD less 200 USD liability, so I would have owe you about 130 USD

    too bad, you didn't want to go for it

    interestingly, it was 1,240 at the beginning of June, and your gain would have been 0

    the rebound performance has been in June and July, possibly because the compiling of the Gold price is being switched over to a new independent entity

    Price history here: Gold Price History - Gold Price OZ

  2. #2552
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    I was going to make a post but searched this thread. What's with Thai's and gold ? There seems to be gold shops everywhere

  3. #2553
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    Gold at all time highs. Still pretty lame. It was the one and only dog asset of the last decade.

  4. #2554
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    Where is Butterly btw ? Is he Dragonfly ? also 9999. Where is he

  5. #2555
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    He got miserabled and flounced.

    Cue forum-wide rejoicing.

    The post above was the last one he made that wasn't a crap troll.

  6. #2556
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    So I bumped this thread. And yet nobody cares at all about gold.

  7. #2557
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    And yet nobody cares at all about gold.
    ...with good reason: physical gold is speculation, not investment...gold-mining stocks would be a better alternative to a kilo of the metal in a safety deposit box...

  8. #2558
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...with good reason: physical gold is speculation, not investment...gold-mining stocks would be a better alternative to a kilo of the metal in a safety deposit box...
    Oh. Well thanks for letting me know that nobody at TD talks about speculation. Only upstanding investors. It's not like anyone mentioned Bitcoin around here

    And buying gold actually speculation or investment. It's savings. Golds main purpose is hard savings. Gold is central bank reserves

  9. #2559
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    And BTW. Nobody is talking about it because nobody has any expectations for gold. I'm the biggest gold bug here and even I am sick of it

  10. #2560
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Golds main purpose is hard savings
    ...nonsense: like everything else, the metal is a store of value on the basis of sentiment...it's worth is undermined by the fact that it doesn't offer a return (like interest or dividends) and costs money to have someone guard it. As a speculative adventure (usually when fear is involved) it works, but only until the threat (war, famine, market insecurities, etc) subsides. In quieter times, it is a weight around one's financial neck.
    Majestically enthroned amid the vulgar herd

  11. #2561
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...nonsense: like everything else, the metal is a store of value on the basis of sentiment...it's worth is undermined by the fact that it doesn't offer a return (like interest or dividends) and costs money to have someone guard it. As a speculative adventure (usually when fear is involved) it works, but only until the threat (war, famine, market insecurities, etc) subsides. In quieter times, it is a weight around one's financial neck.
    Why do I do this... Anyway 75% of what you said is wrong but maybe one thing is new that's worth a comment.

    All financial products cost money to store. Whether it's the fees on a mutual fund or your monthly service charge for your checking account. My checking account costs $15 a month.

    So no. Gold isn't the only thing that costs money to store.

  12. #2562
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    All financial products cost money to store.
    ...my bank pays me to store my CDs with them; my checking is free; my credit card rewards program returns a cash percentage from my purchases...I don't store money with mutual funds, but invest looking for growth and diversity...

    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Gold isn't the only thing that costs money to store.
    ...correct: all physical commodities (of which gold is one) cost money to store...
    Last edited by tomcat; 01-08-2020 at 09:59 AM.

  13. #2563
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    So I bumped this thread. And yet nobody cares at all about gold.
    Wrong! Some of us care, some may even have invested in gold, and are probably quite happy with that decision.

  14. #2564
    The Fool on the Hill bowie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    My checking account costs $15 a month.
    Holy fuck - not the cost conscious consumer are we?

    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Gold ? I got lots of that stuff. More than you.
    Well, considering I have all of maybe $200 in gold jewelry, let's hope so... Certainly ain't the astute deep pockets gold laden commodities broker you are...

    More power to you Mr. Money Bags
    Buying Gold with my Thai savings?-unknown-jpeg

  15. #2565
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    Gold Price


    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    physical gold is speculation, not investment...gold-mining stocks would be a better alternative to a kilo of the metal in a safety deposit box...
    Gold has returned 11.2% pa since 2005. You have no gold when owning mining stocks you are merely at the mercy of the company’s performance.

    I own physical gold, gold mining stocks, shares, bonds, property, and bank deposits. The safest investment currently imo is physical gold. (By a country mile)
    Gold has seen off most fiat currencies in human history and the current ones are looking decidedly shaky.

  16. #2566
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    the fact that it doesn't offer a return (like interest or dividends)
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    Gold has returned 11.2% pa since 2005.
    Attachment 55470

    Many Thais, especially farmers receive a lump sum at the end of each harvest. Other than the pending fertiliser and possible equipment repair or replacement. That cash can be placed in a bank account that ensures, many believe, repayment of capital plus a miserable interest rate. Some stick in their safe, many a times a padlocked drawer in the heaviest piece of furniture.

    Others purchase a gold necklace or ring. It indicates to their peers success/wealth and is easily sold when cash is required.

    If they hold over time, as the record above indicates, they receive a better "return" than offered by banks or speculation, the word means some you lose, some you win.

    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    probably quite happy with that decision
    This past year, April 2019 to April 2020, the 39% increase in value I suspect was deemed acceptable.

    Only those who speculate or pay an investment company to manage their wealth achieve the headline "profits".

    Not all have the skills or are on the selected few, pre-announcement lists, that some here on TD have. Guaranteeing the return anything like the investment industry headlines.

    Kodak was one such "surprise" last week, from USD 2.5 < USD 43.5 (418%) in two days.

    "Kodak won a government loan to produce ingredients that are used in critical generic medicines to battle the coronavirus. The company secured a $765 million loan under the Defense Production Act"

    Buying Gold with my Thai savings?-960x0-jpg

    Kodak Stock Price Up Over 1,440% In Two Days


    Buying Gold with my Thai savings?-3-gm-coin-jpg
    Last edited by OhOh; 01-08-2020 at 02:43 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  17. #2567
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    Gold has returned 11.2% pa since 2005
    ...rather than "returned", gold has grown in value since then...unlike stocks and bonds, say, there is no return until the owner sells it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    You have no gold when owning mining stocks you are merely at the mercy of the company’s performance.
    ...correct...those stocks may have an annual return (dividend) unlike gold...
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    The safest investment currently imo is physical gold. (By a country mile)
    ...a successful speculation probably, but not one that provides a monthly or annual compensation for the risk you're assuming...hence, speculation...
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    Gold has seen off most fiat currencies in human history and the current ones are looking decidedly shaky.
    ...that may be the case, but that's not what this thread is about...a speculator may also buy currencies in the hope of appreciation against other currencies or arbitrage one currency's interest rate against another hoping to make a profit off volatility...hope, however and no matter how well informed, is for speculators, not investors...

  18. #2568
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    TC, Gold is held in people’s portfolio as a hedge, I am not suggesting all of ones assets should be put into gold. However it is certainly less speculative than any other class of investment at this time, in fact it has performed better than any in the last 20 years.

    You obviously have great faith in fiat currencies and their governments ability to print as much as they wish to keep the wheels turning.
    Well it didn’t work in Venezuela, Zimbabwe and numerous others, anyone holding that worthless paper was wiped. Those that held gold were saved from the wipe outs that happened to so many.

    How long do you think we can continue printing currency without a day of reckoning? At the very best inflation will come roaring back at unprecedented levels. Worst case scenario a “reset” will have to take place - in either case Gold is your asset class of choice.

    You will have seen the latest quarterly figures from the US. They make the Great Depression look like a minor blip on the radar.

    The US consumer spending which has effectively been grinding to a halt has the ability to bring down the Chinese economy as well. We are all sitting on a finely balanced knife edge.

    For posterity I will say as I have in other threads, today it is not about endeavouring to make money, it is about preserving capital.

    Mined gold is money - worthless bits of paper are only a promise that can be wiped by inflation etc - Gold cannot.

  19. #2569
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    The only one who has any gold in this household is SWIMBO


    I do, however, buy Silver Coins.

    Either 1oz pure silver or coins minted before or during WWII ... 92.5% silver, 7.5% copper

    After that 'silver coins' were 50% silver, 40% copper, 5% nickel, 5% zinc

    Over the past 5 years, in relative terms, Silver has kept pace with Gold.

    Buying Gold with my Thai savings?-screenshot_2020-08-01-gold-prices-vs

    Gold Prices vs Silver Prices Historical Chart | MacroTrends

    Over 10 years, Gold has definitely outpaced Silver though ... interactive chart above..
    “Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago”

  20. #2570
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    Silver is definitely on a roll. Silver is harder to mine than gold plus it mixes with many other metals making it a pain to refine. The reason I don’t buy it is because the buy spread is normally north of 10%

  21. #2571
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    However it is certainly less speculative than any other class of investment at this time
    ..that may be true, but buying it in hope of future gain is still speculation...
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    You obviously have great faith in fiat currencies
    ...never mentioned fiat currencies...I believe, however, that developed nations with sophisticated economies know what steps to take to calm roiled financial markets, increase domestic and international trade and move toward more efficient production of goods and services: such actions support currencies (and probably reduce speculation in gold)...
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    How long do you think we can continue printing currency without a day of reckoning?
    ...see above...
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    You will have seen the latest quarterly figures from the US.
    ...yes, depressing...but the world, not just the US, is in an emergency situation that requires drastic financial moves (like stimulus checks, etc)...I expect the developed world (whose currencies are vital for economic well-being) to eventually right itself, calm markets, increase production and re-start growth...is gold (and other speculative commodities) going to be a star(s) here? Of course, we are living in troubled times and market nervousness makes gold a good holding...for a time, but not, imo, for all time...hence speculation, not investment...
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    Mined gold is money
    ...that's what folks said to support the US staying on the gold standard...that adherence to such thinking was holding the economy back became so obvious that even a Republican like Nixon freed the dollar from its albatross...and world economies grew...
    Last edited by tomcat; 01-08-2020 at 05:04 PM.

  22. #2572
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    that may be true, but buying it in hope of future gain is still speculation
    Are you serious? That is the reason we invest in any asset class - for future gain!


    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...never mentioned fiat currencies...I believe, however, that developed nations with sophisticated economies know what steps to take to calm roiled financial markets, increase domestic and international trade and move toward more efficient production of goods and services: such actions support currencies (and probably reduce speculation in gold)...
    Yes like Greenspan and Bernanke, give me a break.
    It’s just a belief in fiat that keeps it rolling along like a wobbly bike. Uneducated belief - just because they can thinking, can seriously damage your wealth. Do you really believe we can keep magicking money out of thin air?


    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    Of course, we are living in troubled times and market nervousness makes gold a good holding...for a time, but not, imo, for all time...hence speculation, not investment...
    I stated it was a hedge and in these times I am more than right.

    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...that's what folks said to support the US staying on the gold standard...that adherence to such thinking was holding the economy back became so obvious that even a Republican like Nixon freed the dollar from its albatross...and world economies grew...
    You definitely believe in fairy tales with that one.
    Nixon had no choice but to abandon the gold standard, The US did not have enough gold to back its currency - If every foreign govt cashed in their dollars the US would have been bankrupt many times over.

    The US has had a fiat currency collapses before, the US is only one of few countries in the world that for a period in 1933 ( until it proved unmanageable) actually made it a crime for private people to hold any gold, and to return to the govt any in their possession.

    Yes, gold appears to beat paper every time.

    You obviously were brought up believing I’m Keynesian economics, that’s bad enough, but surely you see that Modern Monetary theory is moving beyond that, we are in uncharted territory and trust me the little guys don’t win!

  23. #2573
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Wrong! Some of us care, some may even have invested in gold, and are probably quite happy with that decision.
    I have like 6 or 7 pounds of gold

  24. #2574
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    I have like 6 or 7 pounds of gold
    You’d do better with the real stuff

  25. #2575
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    Some astute points have been made by Iceman on this.

    For me 10 years ago, I thought gold was going to be a force to be reckoned with right away after the QE insanity started in 2009. I did not expect a 7-8 year long bear market.

    I still have high expectations for gold but i just got the timing wrong so the wind is out of my sails.

    Gold went up 2500% in British Pounds from 1970 to 1980. That is Bitcoin level gains. And unlike some gold bulls even in this thread , I still have high expectations for gold. I think it will go up 2000% from this level.

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