A spread bet at $1 a point is fine with $1,000 bench, six months from today.Originally Posted by Butterfly
Pretty funny how you waited for the price to drop a bit before responding, but I'm used to that kind of angle shooting.
Still a great bet for me, easy to arbitrage and it's strange that you actually want to do it seeing as you can have a much better bet on the open market. But I'll play, where do I send the money? I trust you but you won't trust me so unfortunately we have to tie up funds for 6 months. I'll only do it coz you're kind enough to give such absurd value.
Do you take bitcoin? doubt you got on that one, as I recall I called it at around $70 and you belittled it. Forget the thread though.
Just so we're clear, this was your original offer, and what I'm willing to bet on:
Originally Posted by Butterfly
Last edited by 9999; 23-11-2013 at 11:49 AM.
Not a chance Socal. There will be other along to belittle your decisions but we know who will have the bigger lump of value in the years to come.Originally Posted by socal
it will be a forward contract, since I only have templates for Forwards, not chav style betting games with spreadsOriginally Posted by 9999
jesus christ, you really think the whole world is after you, don't you ? I don't check the price of Gold, can't tell you where it is today, only remembered that thread when I visit TD occasionally, so stop the paranoia and the victimization game.Originally Posted by 9999
here we go, going into silly tangent again. Enough with the distraction. The SWAP is in USD and the payoff will be donated to Teakdoor as a donation or a real Charity organization in Thailand. So either way, the payoff will be given to Teakdoor or a Charity Organization (not a charity organization for Vice Player Anonymous). Are you good with that ? at least there will be no excuse or default by either party for loss transfer, payments etc... the payoff is the donation button on Teakdoor with the intrinsic value of the Swap.Originally Posted by 9999
not sure what Bitcoins has anything to do with any of it ? another silly speculative scam on the Internet for the like of you, petty Chinese daytraders and online casino and porn criminals.
so in summary, we have the following:
Benchmark (S0): Oz/USD Spot NY at the Close (No Bid/ask).
Benchmark Price (X): Close of November 30th or when contract starts
Forward value at initiation: 0 USD
Terms: 6 months calendar - May 30th 2014
Multiplier: 1x
Settlement: Cash Only, NPD
Forward Buyer/Payer: 9999
Forward Seller/Receiver: Butterfly
Clearing: TD Donation or a Thailand charity to be agreed upon
Forward Payment = S0 - X = Spot at Expiration - Strike Benchmark at origination
What the above mean is that I am short Gold, and you are long Gold. The exact benchmark price is determined at the beginning of the contract. Current price is around 1200 USD. Exact price will be the close on November 30 when we initiate the contract or before. End of November makes it better to calculate exactly 6 months calendar. If you prefer a different date, let us know.
Do you agree to those terms ?
Last edited by Butterfly; 24-11-2013 at 07:54 PM.
the purpose of Derivatives is also to provide a liquid market and price discovery for illiquid assets like Gold and other commodities. Physical Gold Bullion trade volume is so "irregular" that without derivatives, trader and dealers would have no way to know for sure where the market stands, and their spread will have to become significant, making physical trades even more unlikely as the spread will discourage real buyer and sellers.Originally Posted by socal
I have one real life example, a friend tried to sell gold bullion in large quantity, despite a bid/ask with corresponding volume from dealers and a bank, there has not been any actual trades for weeks. Physical Gold is illiquid and can have a large spread in western countries (Thailand is a different issue). Since he wanted to sell, he had to hit the bid and because the spread was significant, that meant a 5% decline that day for the price of Gold in France, without any change to fundamentals or world events regarding Gold.
Therefore, despite your rants on Spot and paper Gold, without it, there wouldn't been a price, let alone a market, for Gold.
If you cant get physical gold at the price then thats not the price of physical gold.
The price discovery futures market leveraged at 100:1. Here are two important interviews from Eric King and King World News.
Jeff Christian of the * CPM Group who was coming in by satellite communication said that the previous speaker was absolutely correct, that it was paper hedging paper. You know, so this was an amazing admission.
And he went on several times while he was speaking and reconfirmed it in several different ways. So it wasn't that he just made a mistake, or said something incorrectly. He reconfirmed it several times.
And as Chris pointed out, he actually told us that the CFTC and CPM Group use the term "physical market" in a very loose way. And he said it actually means all the paper and the physical metal is when they refer to the physical market.
And then he gave us the bombshell that it's actually 100 to 1. That they sell 100 times more gold than they actually have as physical metal.
There is no fucking unmolested market gold price and EVERYONE knows it. The US treasury wrote the paper on it.
Just today:
Shortly after 1amET this morning, someone with no apparent fiduciary duty to their client's for best execution or any apparent trade allocation expertise decided it was time to dump 1500 contracts into an entirely illiquid gold futures market. The 150,000 ounce notional sell order ($184.5 million), captured graphically by Nanex, sent the price down $10 instaneously, tripped the exchange's circuit breakers and halted the market's trading for 20 seconds (once again). This is now the 4th market halt in the past 3 months (and this time on no news whatsoever), as the manipulative monkey-hammerings from who knows whom (BIS?) is becoming increasingly obvious.
This sort of thing is happening far too often: see also the drops on April 12, 2013, September 12, 2013, October 11, 2013 and November 20, 2013 which also resulted in trading halts.
Just like currency intervention, like usual. Show me another market other then a currency intervention that looks like this. A chart like this on no fucking news. Tell me you think this is normal market selling Butterfly , tell me.
Here I was right all along with gold leading up to 2011, before these government induced, G20 approved smack downs. And the government wrote the paper on it. They started trashing the price of gold to support government bond prices around the world.
Explained here
The price of fine art around the world is booming in 2013, thanks to inflation.
Recent auctions also point to the growing trend of wealthy investors choosing art as their asset of choice. In June, the Corcoran Gallery of Art auctioned a Persian rug that was expected to go for $10 to $15 million. Instead, it surprised everyone at Corcoran and Sotheby’s (who handled the auction), by selling for a whopping $33.7 million—by far the highest price ever paid for a rug (the previous record was $9.6 million).
In May, Christie’s sale of post-war and contemporary art blew apart previous records, selling 66 pieces for $495 million.
Stock markets around the world are breaking records yet we are led to believe
that the real price of gold is down ? Get the fuck out of here.
Remember in 2011 ?
Japan intervenes to tame soaring yen ahead of G20.
(Reuters) - Japan sold the yen for the second time in less than three months after it hit another record high against the dollar Monday, saying it intervened to counter excessive speculation that was hurting the world's No. 3 economy.
The intervention vaulted the dollar more than 4 percent higher (Yen 4% lower), which would mark its biggest one-day gain(Yen loss) in three years, and Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Tokyo would continue to step into the market until it was satisfied with the results.
"We started currency intervention this morning in order to take every measure against speculative and disorderly moves and to prevent risks to the Japanese economy from materializing," Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told parliament.
Several G20 nations, including Japan's exports rival South Korea, have intervened frequently in markets. But Japan is under more scrutiny as an issuer of one of three global currencies and does not want to be labeled as a currency manipulator.
Azumi has indicated after his past meetings with Group of Seven and G20 partners that they appreciated Japan's special circumstances.
Here is the chart of the Yen intervention. Look familiar ?
Here is another gold chart ! And I am wrong on gold ? Intervention maybe ? Yeeeah....
That sounds fine. Whoever wins ships to TD or a charity.Originally Posted by Butterfly
Hang on a second, did you not propose a bench of $1K USD? I thought that was the agreement, not the spot price at the start of the contract.Originally Posted by Butterfly
No, the purpose of derivatives is to allow gamblers to bet on the price of stocks, commodities, indexes, etc, without having to actually invest in them.Originally Posted by Butterfly
already answered that one a few pages ago and you were fine with it,Originally Posted by 9999
unless you want to wait for the price to drop to 1000 USD so can start the contract ?
999, are you still here ? ok with the terms ?
When is the gold decline going to bottom out? If I'd bought a month ago when Socal said, I'd currently be losing.
where is 9999 ? sounds like he ran away again when it was time to put money in his big mouth.
Very familiar, and to be expected from a British Chav hustler
999 are we good to start or do you want to wait for it to reach 1000 USD first ?
what is the weather going to be like on this date next year?Originally Posted by Pragmatic
Read his full history and you will know that he and others buy as a saving vehicle. If you want immediate short term gains/losses I am sure Butterfly will NOT give you any tips.Originally Posted by Pragmatic
Maybe next year you will be kicking yourself for NOT buying gold when Socal suggested it.
But hey as you didn't buy any gold you have only lost the value of your fiat currency, your pension fund or the crap that went down the toilet.
A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.
what happened to socal and 9999 ?
indeed, not my role here. But I am happy to point out dysfunctional arguments about investment choices when I see one. Gold is a bubble, and will soon crash back to 600 USD. Then it will be time to buy when all the fuckers who bought at 1200 and more cry in their beers !!!Originally Posted by OhOh
Yep still here. Have been away on Norfolk Island, setting up another dodgy casino.Originally Posted by Butterfly
terms are OK with me with a $1K bench, it was just this bit ...
I took it to mean at bench at current spot price as opposed to $1K bench.Benchmark (S0): Oz/USD Spot NY at the Close (No Bid/ask).
let me know how to proceed.
How insulting, to insinuate I'm a brit.Originally Posted by Butterfly
It's Aussie Bogan hustler, thanks
gold is dropping closer and closer to its 52 week low of 1186.....it touched 1188 last night
That's cool, I'll still accept the terms of Butters' wager.Originally Posted by raycarey
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