Thread: Odds for a coup ?

Since they are not going to get their election in 2 weeks, and the government is quite limited in their actions, I see only 3 alternatives:

- The reds go home, still a strong possibility
- The yellow come into play
- Coup

I am putting the odds at 60% for the coup,

it might be the only exit solution, not the best, but still better than 200 killed in another confrontation

maybe wait a few years before holding a new election, by that time Thaksin will have run out of cash with all the other party, and we could have a free and fair election

You're in massive denial here Butterfly !

The only plausible outcomes you see are still ones in which the Reds don't succeed.

What are your odds that they do? Long odds I guess. But if you're offering odds, be prepared to lay the bets !

^ no, simply realistic

you are not really naive enough to think the red monkeys would get away with it ? they don't have the strategic support of the yellow, and I don't think the majority of Thai are associating with them

They aren't going home even if there is a Coup. They're just going to sit and sit and sit.

They're not the slightest bit scared of Thai soldiers. We've already seen that on saturday. If they are attacked they've already intimated they'll trash the shopping malls in a final stand.

Is the Yellow going to order that the tanks squash them. Possibly. Eminently capable of doing so.

The light at the end of the tunnel is the gleam of a tank.
Who controls the tanks?
Certainly not the reds today.

i don't think they will stage a coup at this point.

they will wait until thaksin gets voted in again before they act.

^ LOL

How very true.

0%.

Also I would say that because of the laws of the kingdom it isn't possible for me as to elaborate.

Would love to debate, but its not the time or place.

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

They aren't going home even if there is a Coup. They're just going to sit and sit and sit.

how are they are going to do that with tanks rolling over them ?

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

They're not the slightest bit scared of Thai soldiers. We've already seen that on saturday.

only a few seems to be quite daring, hardly the majority. A few dozens of reds is not going to stop an army. Even when the army got beat up last week-end, they still managed to kill 15 of them.

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

If they are attacked they've already intimated they'll trash the shopping malls in a final stand.

very likely, and so typically of the reds, when losing, throwing shit. I think the majority of Thai see them as a threat, a big divisive threat more than a solution for freedom or Democracy. To think they could win some kind of popular support for being such a divisive force is beyond naive.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

- Coup

by who ?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

They aren't going home even if there is a Coup. They're just going to sit and sit and sit.

how are they are going to do that with tanks rolling over them ?

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

They're not the slightest bit scared of Thai soldiers. We've already seen that on saturday.

only a few seems to be quite daring, hardly the majority. A few dozens of reds is not going to stop an army. Even when the army got beat up last week-end, they still managed to kill 15 of them.

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

If they are attacked they've already intimated they'll trash the shopping malls in a final stand.

very likely, and so typically of the reds, when losing, throwing shit. I think the majority of Thai see them as a threat, a big divisive threat more than a solution for freedom or Democracy. To think they could win some kind of popular support for being such a divisive force is beyond naive.

Strange! Not a mention of a bar girl! Can't be Flutterby surely?

^ Moog is not a bargirl, sorry to disappoint

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

They aren't going home even if there is a Coup. They're just going to sit and sit and sit.

how are they are going to do that with tanks rolling over them ?

Because if Yellows send the tanks in to squash people (who say they are democracy campaigners) then they win a short term victory, but such a 'Tiananmen Square' jeopardises the long term survival of the structures they stand for.

It will simply quicken the endgame.

..........and that man is THAKSIN

there is no way thaksin will ever be PM again. He has too many enemies including the big man himself, and his return would only mean the return of the yellows and more turmoil. It would be the worst possible outcome. There is also the fact that he is a wanted criminal.

With all the congestion, disruption, and general rocking of the boat, the public will become more and more discontent with the situation calling for government action. If the reds don't go home, potential for escalation of force. could get even more nasty out there.

Govt will fall after Songkran - odds 85%

Happened in France, happened in China, happened in Russia, same-same in Rome.
The British Empire was pushed out of India by a geriatric in a loin cloth who wouldn't eat his dinners.

Its an unstoppable historical axiom. Thailand is not exempt or special.


For Butterfly to complain about how beastly and rude the Reds are, when they threaten to torch Mrs Butterfly's favourite handbag shop - i'd draw his attention to a quote from Mao Tse Tung

"A revolution is not a dinner party"

If there is a coup, will it go down in history as bloodless?

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

Mrs Butterfly's

Ppffffttt !!!

Originally Posted by JoGeAr

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

Mrs Butterfly's

Ppffffttt !!!

If Mrs Butterfly's preferred handbag emporium were to disappear in flames before she has bought the bags-du-jour, the chief suspect would be Butterfly himself.

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

For Butterfly to complain about how beastly and rude the Reds are, when they threaten to torch Mrs Butterfly's favourite handbag shop - i'd draw his attention to a quote from Mao Tse Tung

"A revolution is not a dinner party"

and our dear Mao was correct

Here's what I think happens.......the Thai way.

There won't be any more bloodshed - because its all about legacy and ensuring continuity now. You don't shed blood when you're so close to becoming an Arhat.

Everyone is called in. A grand unified deal is done in which everyone who has to be bought in is bought in.

Everyone gets included, differences with Thaksin are made to disappear - flat out vanish - in return for confidential concessions. No meddling on the one side, no fiddling with the traditional cashflow streams on the other.

They then go back to their people and declare reconciliation and unification. A 'Royal Party' is devised as the proxy of a unified nation. All bickering is done behind the scenes, where the cash gets divvied up. When the Grim Reaper comes calling, everyone rallies round and Thailand is relaunched internationally.

Because this is about the money. As it always is with high level politics in Thailand.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Odds for a coup ?

https://teakdoor.com/thailand-and-asi...arliament.html

Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog

Here's what I think happens.......the Thai way.

There won't be any more bloodshed - because its all about legacy and ensuring continuity now. You don't shed blood when you're so close to becoming an Arhat.

Everyone is called in. A grand unified deal is done in which everyone who has to be bought in is bought in.

Everyone gets included, differences with Thaksin are made to disappear - flat out vanish - in return for confidential concessions. No meddling on the one side, no fiddling with the traditional cashflow streams on the other.

They then go back to their people and declare reconciliation and unification. A 'Royal Party' is devised as the proxy of a unified nation. All bickering is done behind the scenes, where the cash gets divvied up. When the Grim Reaper comes calling, everyone rallies round and Thailand is relaunched internationally.

Because this is about the money. As it always is with high level politics in Thailand.

how about this solution,

Thaksin receive a secret Royal Pardon, the reds movement is called off, everyone go home, victims receive a certain sum of money, and Thaksin can enjoy the rest of his billions without the needs to squash them on poor peasants.

How about that ? likely ? unlikely ? I am giving 20% for that scenario to happen