Thread: Horse Racing Betting Systems

Another interest I have pursued over the last year is betting on UK horse racing.

Until last year I have never had an interest in betting

Saw an article last march 2009 on betting horses TO LOSE !

Eh "to lose"

Well it,s Lay betting to use the correct terminology.

I researched it ,

With the advent of Betting Platforms on the web such as Betfair .com you can now bet a horse to win or lose, the site acts as an intermediary taking 5% off any winnings,
You bet against another punter ( not the bet site) so they don,t care how much you win,
You get better odds than at the trad bookies who do not allow laying a horse,

If you bet 10 quid to win at 10/1 and it wins you get 100quid

If you bet 10 quid to lose at 10.1 and it loses you get 10 quid , if it wins however you pay the punter 100quid,

So I did a years research and physically betting on my systems , sometimes I made 2000 quid in one day, then lose 6000 the next,
at one point I was up 15000quid,

In have modified the systems to hone out or lesson the loss sequences,
and seem to have stabalised the losses to an acceptable level plus developed a loss recovery method.

You can never win 100% , losses are to be expected, but my system is running at 80% strike rate plus the recovery method

Originally Posted by TSR2

Another interest I have pursued over the last year is betting on UK horse racing.

Until last year I have never had an interest in betting

Saw an article last march 2009 on betting horses TO LOSE !

Eh "to lose"

Well it,s Lay betting to use the correct terminology.

I researched it ,

With the advent of Betting Platforms on the web such as Betfair .com you can now bet a horse to win or lose, the site acts as an intermediary taking 5% off any winnings,
You bet against another punter ( not the bet site) so they don,t care how much you win,
You get better odds than at the trad bookies who do not allow laying a horse,

If you bet 10 quid to win at 10/1 and it wins you get 100quid

If you bet 10 quid to lose at 10.1 and it loses you get 10 quid , if it wins however you pay the punter 100quid,

So I did a years research and physically betting on my systems , sometimes I made 2000 quid in one day, then lose 6000 the next,
at one point I was up 15000quid,

In have modified the systems to hone out or lesson the loss sequences,
and seem to have stabalised the losses to an acceptable level plus developed a loss recovery method.

You can never win 100% , losses are to be expected, but my system is running at 80% strike rate plus the recovery method

So how big was/is your bank roll?

What is your staking plan?

Do you just lay one horse to lose per race and let it ride or do you back/lay on other horse and in running?

If you had no interest in betting on horses how do you know what to lay in the first place or are you guided solely by odds?

Do you do this alone?

And finally how much do you want for this oh so superb information?

Originally Posted by CB79

So how big was/is your bank roll? What is your staking plan? Do you just lay one horse to lose per race and let it ride or do you back/lay on other horse and in running? If you had no interest in betting on horses how do you know what to lay in the first place or are you guided solely by odds? Do you do this alone? And finally how much do you want for this oh so superb informat

Originally Posted by CB79

So how big was/is your bank roll? What is your staking plan? Do you just lay one horse to lose per race and let it ride or do you back/lay on other horse and in running? If you had no interest in betting on horses how do you know what to lay in the first place or are you guided solely by odds? Do you do this alone? And finally how much do you want for this oh so superb informat

1, 5000 gbp

2, secret

3, 1 horse per race plus in-running ,

4,Statistics

5,yep

6,you serious or winding me up

Another way is get up early in the morning and back the favourite in each race, then lay them for the same stake before the off as the price has normally come down, a lot in some cases, the horse wins, you win, the horse loses, you lose nothing.

Attention all ye would be punters

This is a very scary way of betting,

You need some bottle and more,

Just been hit today thursday, with a 4000 quid hit,

Why ? not sticking to my system

Two words sum up your requirements

DISCIPLINE & TRUST what you know

Originally Posted by buriramboy

other way is get up early in the morning and back the favourite in each race, then lay them for the same stake before the off as the price has normally come down, a lot in some cases, the horse wins, you win, the horse loses, you lose nothing.

Bit like Arbitrage, small risk small profit, but OK

^^ One losing day and you putting it down to system failure? If you don't put a loss like that down as normal variance then you're far from being a 'pro'.

^

Read my post

I strayed from the system that I created, so NOT A SYSTEM FAULT

Operator fault

And where did I say I was a professional then

I have had /will have losses, part of the game,

fck me I get a red from CB79

And some shit from 9999,

There some real assholes on this forum

fuck it

You had a losing day from 'straying from your system', so every other day has won then? How do you know the day you lost you did everything right and just got unlucky rather than making bad decisions? People don't understand the magnitude of the swings involved in this game and sample sizes required to get anything close to accurate expectation. I read your post. It's comical, I read the same sort of shit every day and it's usually from touts trying to lure you in and take your money.

Like the whole 'betting to lose...huh?' thing,it's old, people have been laying horses on Betfair for about 10 years now. Your post trashy and should be MKP'd.

Originally Posted by 9999

Your post trashy and should be MKP'd.

at least he had the decency to post a thread about what he's doing, which takes more effort than trashing someone else's effort...have a red for your trouble...

Originally Posted by klongmaster

Originally Posted by 9999

Your post trashy and should be MKP'd.

at least he had the decency to post a thread about what he's doing, which takes more effort than trashing someone else's effort...have a red for your trouble...

But 9999 is bang on the money in my opinion.

I instantly thought that the OP was trying to lure people into this "super system" at a price. Look at the way it is worded??

A good friend of mine makes a fortune doing something similar to this so much so that he gave up a very profitable job as a sales manager in the City to run his own coffee van which ensures that he is home and sat in front of his lap top for 12 p.m. each day where he then makes the main bulk of his money. He also sold his quarter stake in 5 pitches at various race courses to give him his starting bank roll which was for a lot more than 5k.

As 9999 says laying horses has been around since the invention of exchanges and many people do make a good living on this but the variances are unbelievable and TSR2 is either in well above his head or is trying to influence people to part with their money IMO.

Have a red back.

I don't like the sound of "laying horses"
Think I'll stick with laying prostitutes.

Originally Posted by CB79

I instantly thought that the OP was trying to lure people into this "super system" at a price. Look at the way it is worded??

Well twat face you are wrong ,

I told Klongmaster my system for free,

Obviously you have a devious little mind thinking that everybody is like a little shit like you

just FCK off some where else

Originally Posted by CB79

A good friend of mine makes a fortune doing something similar to this so much so that he gave up a very profitable job as a sales manager in the City to run his own coffee van which ensures that he is home and sat in front of his lap top for 12 p.m. each day where he then makes the main bulk of his money. He also sold his quarter stake in 5 pitches at various race courses to give him his starting bank roll which was for a lot more than 5k.

Why does he have to run a coffee van if he's making a fortune laying the nags?

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie

Why does he have to run a coffee van if he's making a fortune laying the nags?

Because like CB79 and 9999 they are a frustrated punters who shove 2 quid over the counter thinking it,s going to be it

Well spotted Fast Eddie

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie

Originally Posted by CB79

A good friend of mine makes a fortune doing something similar to this so much so that he gave up a very profitable job as a sales manager in the City to run his own coffee van which ensures that he is home and sat in front of his lap top for 12 p.m. each day where he then makes the main bulk of his money. He also sold his quarter stake in 5 pitches at various race courses to give him his starting bank roll which was for a lot more than 5k.

Why does he have to run a coffee van if he's making a fortune laying the nags?

It's a very good question and one i've asked him but the guy likes to graft for a living and knows that lifespan of "nicking" money from the exchanges is going to be limited as more and more people cotton on to it and squeeze the value out of it. This way he has a self employed business to fall back on to when the arse falls out of it. (Which it will).

Anyone, who regularly uses Romford/Upminster and various stations around them ways will have no doubt seen/bought a coffee from him.

Originally Posted by TSR2

Originally Posted by CB79

I instantly thought that the OP was trying to lure people into this "super system" at a price. Look at the way it is worded??

Well twat face you are wrong ,

I told Klongmaster my system for free,

Obviously you have a devious little mind thinking that everybody is like a little shit like you

just FCK off some where else

Aww diddums.

Doesn't quite add up with your original statement...if he knows it's going to be short time why sell his 5 pitches which are definitely long term...

Originally Posted by CB79

It's a very good question and one i've asked him but the guy ...knows that lifespan of "nicking" money from the exchanges is going to be limited as more and more people cotton on to it and squeeze the value out of it. This way he has a self employed business to fall back on to when the arse falls out of it. (Which it will).

Originally Posted by CB79

A good friend of mine makes a fortune doing something similar to this so much so that he gave up a very profitable job as a sales manager in the City to run his own coffee van which ensures that he is home and sat in front of his lap top for 12 p.m. each day where he then makes the main bulk of his money. He also sold his quarter stake in 5 pitches at various race courses to give him his starting bank roll which was for a lot more than 5k.

Originally Posted by klongmaster

Doesn't quite add up with your original statement...if he knows it's going to be short time why sell his 5 pitches which are definitely long term...

Originally Posted by CB79

It's a very good question and one i've asked him but the guy ...knows that lifespan of "nicking" money from the exchanges is going to be limited as more and more people cotton on to it and squeeze the value out of it. This way he has a self employed business to fall back on to when the arse falls out of it. (Which it will).

Originally Posted by CB79

A good friend of mine makes a fortune doing something similar to this so much so that he gave up a very profitable job as a sales manager in the City to run his own coffee van which ensures that he is home and sat in front of his lap top for 12 p.m. each day where he then makes the main bulk of his money. He also sold his quarter stake in 5 pitches at various race courses to give him his starting bank roll which was for a lot more than 5k.

Semantics.

When I say long term he is not still going to be doing it when he's 60 years old but he has been doing it for 4 to 5 years and I would imagine he will be doing it for that again BUT it will bottom out sooner or later.

Without going into too much detail they have many accounts with many different bookmakers but said bookmakers have people keeping an eye on accounts with a lot of money going through them and he regularly has his accounts frozen and/or limits put on them which is no good for what they do. Sooner or later they are also going to run out of these accounts.

Of the ones I can remember he had a quarter stake in weekend pitches at Lingfield, Sandown and also had a pitch at the King George at Kempton on Boxing day, he and his mate sold their shares to finance his bank roll in order to sustain the variances that come with what they are doing. You cannot expect to make money out of this without a massive bank roll and they made the decision to go this route rather than on course whilst also giving up his sales manager roll to go at it full time. He took on the coffee franchise to supplement him when first getting into it.

He was driving a Z3 although I believe he has now upgraded, owns a 3 bedroom house in Romford and is part owner of an apartment that is currently being built in Dubai.

Although he is far from rolling in it he doesn't have a bad lifestyle for a single man of 33 who sells coffee for a living.

Originally Posted by CB79

Without going into too much detail they have many accounts with many different bookmakers but said bookmakers have people keeping an eye on accounts with a lot of money going through them and he regularly has his accounts frozen and/or limits put on them which is no good for what they do. Sooner or later they are also going to run out of these accounts.

Sounds like he's into arbitrage if he needs all those accounts. The bookies are quick to limit those they suspect are doing that.

But then he shouldn 't have the variance mentioned below.

finance his bank roll in order to sustain the variances that come with what they are doing.

Originally Posted by klongmaster

Originally Posted by 9999

Your post trashy and should be MKP'd.

at least he had the decency to post a thread about what he's doing, which takes more effort than trashing someone else's effort...have a red for your trouble...

Fair enough, but I have posted some real stuff in the members forum and some other threads if you want to take a look. Now, I'm not doing anything just kicking back in Thailand. The juicy days are over, but if you like betting casino bonuses with big swings there's approaches that are mathematically to your advantage.

Sheeet, I even posted a link to a forum spoon feeding how to make a living doing the shit that's pretty underground. Put quite a bit of effort into explaining some advantage betting in a post too. So cheers for the little red dot, you're the second fella who's given me one.

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie

Originally Posted by CB79

Without going into too much detail they have many accounts with many different bookmakers but said bookmakers have people keeping an eye on accounts with a lot of money going through them and he regularly has his accounts frozen and/or limits put on them which is no good for what they do. Sooner or later they are also going to run out of these accounts.

Sounds like he's into arbitrage if he needs all those accounts. The bookies are quick to limit those they suspect are doing that.

But then he shouldn 't have the variance mentioned below.

finance his bank roll in order to sustain the variances that come with what they are doing.

The multiple accounts are needed as you say as the bookies are very quick to both close down and limit the amounts being bet through them but also many new accounts means many new opening offers which also sweeten the bets they are having.

Unfortunately, to win big they sometimes have to gamble more than grind and if they can't lay off/back at prices when needed (usually in running) then they have to take the hits and this is where their bank roll is needed.

If you're so clued up on it all then maybe you should PM TSR2 some pointers before he does his 5k.

^ Arbitrage has gotten much tighter just like casino bonuses. No shit, 6 years ago it was easy money, now very tough. For the last year the limiting was so crippling I moved into backing / laying on Betfair and scalping Asian lines where there are no limit restrictions, but that means gambling on the direction of the market moves. Tat got ironed out too, as the movers and shakers out there got a bit more sophisticated and the sport markets are much less predicatable now.

It's all about staying one step ahead, getting in before it's all plastered all over the internet. Now I'm researching into maths models to predict more accurate odds than the early ones on offer by the bookies, and beat the late, efficient price that way. The good thing now is the tiny spreads in the Asian line and Betfair's low commission, effectively making it about 90% cheaper to make a bet with a traditional bookie. Soccer betting is very close to a zero sum game now if you know how to find value, so you only need to find small angles / inefficiencies to have an edge. The thinner the edge, the bigger the swings though, and one of the hadest things, and where most people fall down, is mistaking normal randomness for something significant, be it putting the wins down to system success, or lthe losses down to whatever excuse they come up with.

Take the casino bonuses for example. There's at least 100 high risk - lowish expected return bonuses. Played optimally you'll cash in about 1 in 20, or 5 times out of the 100. Some people will cash in twice in their first five casinos. Others will go through the whole 100 without a single payout. You can calculate pretty accurately the expected return but need to go through litereally thousands of bonuses to reliably realise the expectation.

Of course, the smaller the edge, the bigger the variance, so if you play say the top ten easy casino bonuses still available, it's very unlikely you'll lose. So there's only really a few thousand easy quid lying around that I've already told the forum about, and also not to go screaming to the world about, that red for just bashing and not putting in input made me cry.

Interesting. But I'm sticking to forex.
Almost zero risk.