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Thread: Betting Systems

  1. #1
    Thailand Expat

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    Betting Systems

    For the last 3 months I have been evaluating Betting systems mainly on horse racing UK

    some are ingenious but not one you would want to put your shirt on , actually they don,t advise that

    Running one now that looks promising but can get scary, it,s mathematically logical,

    IE, Given that Favourites win as an average 29% of the time you bet say 10 quid , lose , double next bet, and so on until you win , when you do revert to the original stake
    Ran a paper run yesterday initial bet 10 quid, on all favourires Uk ,
    ended with a 750 quid profit

    Trouble is that at one stage I was trying to bet 1650 quid, Ok if you can place that money at the off

    Comments please

  2. #2
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    Excuse the Swindon link, but some of my fellow Wiltshire men are into this. It may be of interest to you (you might need to read on a bit).


    matched betting/casino bagging

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    In Chiang Mai you can actually have a day at the races. There are horse races most Saturday afternoons on the army land just off the Mae Rim road heading out of the city. It's fixed but who cares. You can have a drink, a flutter and walk around telling everyone you have some inside information.

  4. #4
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    The best betting system is to become a bookmaker...

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by passengers
    The best betting system is to become a bookmaker...
    FCK me never thought of that , what a silly git

  6. #6
    Gohills flip-flops wearer
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    There are a couple of problems with the doubling up that come to mind.
    As you pointed out, a bad losing run can put you over the limit with some bookies. Another problem, sometimes the favorites come in at less than even money, resulting in a net loss, and there are often joint favorites in a race. If the system worked, everyone would do it.

  7. #7
    Mid
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    Betting Systems
    Casino's have good ones ..........

  8. #8
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    Couldn't agree more. If you want to get rich at the track, you're better off mugging your bookie on his way home.
    That's an interesting/logical system TSR2, and makes sense if you have the bank to chase your money. Trick would be knowing when to pull-out.
    The gamblers lament - when is enough enough?
    Sadly the TAB and bookies are that fucked in Oz that you are doing well to get a 3/1 paying favourite or better, which is what you would need for this system to work.
    Might be worth continuing your paper trial for a couple of weeks/ a month, and review. Be very interested in how you fare.
    Best of luck anyway

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by mordiboy
    Be very interested in how you fare.
    Will let you know Mordiboy

    As to when to pull out , once you have backed a winner wether on 1st bet or 2/3 /4 so on

    then withdraw and go back to original stake ie in my case 10 quid

    I will continue paper betting and see, as I said gets scary when doubling up at your say 8th bet you are placing 1280 Gbp but at say 3/1 that,s a lot of money!

    trouble may be as I said getting that amount placed before the off!

    Ps I use Betfair

    Thanks for the interest

  10. #10
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    You will more than likely end up losing everything you have if you persist with this Martingale system to its inevitable conclusion.

  11. #11
    pompeybloke
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    All casinos keep the betting minimums and maximums fairly close together so the double up chase is possible normally around five times only.

    If you play BJ well, staking 1 Pound a thousand times, you won't end up even in the long run. Casinos rake in between 20 and 25% of all punted dosh.

  12. #12
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    Yesterdays results __ All Uk races, __10gbp initial stake

    37 BETS ON FAVOURITES

    14 WINS 38%

    WON 4671 GBP

    LOST 1940 GBP

    PROFIT 2731 GBP

    Banked the winnings now back to 10 quid bet today

    Largest bet 1280 gbp after 8 straight losses
    Last edited by TSR2; 02-06-2009 at 09:21 AM.

  13. #13
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    ^ Nerves of steel placing a GBP1,280 bet!

    I'm not a gambler although I was involved in the early days of online casino and sportsbook gaming, that was enough to put me off betting.

    Out of curiosity I took a look at the Betfair site that you use, not only did it identify me as being in Asia but it also accounted for the fact that I was in Thailand and adjusted the race/match times accordingly.

    Taking a look at the sign up page it also correctly placed me in Thailand, does anyone know how that fits with local laws? Does the fact that the bookie and the event are outside of Thailand mean that you won't get into trouble if spotted by the e-BiB?

    Back to the thread topic: I'll be interested to see how you get on, from a purely mathematical point of view of course, I hope you are able to keep us posted.


    Good luck,

    JxP
    "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

  14. #14
    Member Nietzsche's Avatar
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    Fuck that!

  15. #15
    The Pikey Hunter
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    arbitrage systems work the best.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by JuniorExPat
    Does the fact that the bookie and the event are outside of Thailand mean that you won't get into trouble if spotted by the e-BiB?
    Dunno
    As both the Race/ my money and Betfair are outside Thailand and it,s internet based,it would need a legal decision
    However I am not volunteering any info

  17. #17
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    Results Tuesday 02 June

    32 bets on all Favourites

    11 Wins (34%)

    Win total 1386

    Loss total 2840

    Loss 1444GBP

    Winners had too many short priced odds as was suggested earlier

    Running total for 2 days 1287 gbp Profit

  18. #18
    I am in Jail

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    tsr2 .... are you familiar with the term pipedream .... forget it

  19. #19
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    There is a hell of a lot of difference between 'paper' and live betting.

    An outlandish example... your on a run of bad bets and your next bet is 1000 (X currency). On paper your bet has no effect on the payouts in real life if you drop a 1000 bet on a horse/snail/dog you are immediately causing the odds to change.

    One reason folks get killed after "perfecting" a system on paper. The same reason for paper stock systems to a lesser degree, you are changing the dynamic of the process by placing your wager.

    E. G.
    "If you can't stand the answer --
    Don't ask the question!"

  20. #20
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    ^^^ Very true. Size of the betting pool could be an issue. Though Betfair and other shops do have fixed price betting, I'm pretty sure
    I'm still very interested in % of favourites that come in each day, as well as average price of these winners.
    TSR2 if this system doesn't work, not all is lost.
    Load-up on Scenic Blast in the Golden Jubilee stakes at newmarket in a couple of weeks. The west-australian wonderhorse!

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by jim1176
    are you familiar with the term pipedream
    Hey Jim Lad ,course I know what a pipedream is

    I ain,t pipedreaming though

    Just wondering what if ?

    Not costing any money

    And El Gibbon live betting !!! . well I have got 750.000GBP riding on various sectors of the Financial World , up 23% so far in 4 weeks

    So I think I know what it,s like to cough up your brass and play

    NB without pipedreaming /imagination there would not be any ideas , the trick being to materialise those ideas into concrete workable formats

    Long time ago I thought that I would like to have my own big company, had a chance, took it, made a lot of money

  22. #22
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    I once won 75 quid on an up and down double, Desert Orchid and Slalom.

    Havent bet since, as i refuse too give the bookies their money back!

  23. #23
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    ^

    Wise man

  24. #24
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    My comment re. live betting has nothing to do with whether or not you have "skin" in the game.

    It is that the dynamic of the betting process is skewed any time a larger than "normal" bet is placed.

    A bet of 10 (?) on a particular horse/dog/snail will not show much of an effect, however a bet of 1000 (?), necessary to catch up will adversely change the odds against you.

    It is how parimutuel betting is organized.... The bank never comes out behind. Never mind handicap weights, race classes (claiming or not) etc. tough.

    IF you do find a winner I would not publish here. Lots of rail hangers will pay a fortune for your tip sheets.

    E. G.

  25. #25
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    ^
    Sorry EL gibbon misunderstood what you were trying to say , apologies
    You make a lot of sense

    Perhaps your right. I should keep my Gob shut !

    Also read the posts properly
    Last edited by TSR2; 03-06-2009 at 04:40 PM.

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