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  1. #26
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Topper View Post
    the former president had plans drawn up to do just that...
    You mean the one that was always full of shit?

  2. #27
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HISTONE H3 View Post
    Anybody Here Worried about Impending (w/in 2 years) WAR with China?: Effects on You?
    nope...

  3. #28
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Plan...build a wall between Mexico and US and make Mexico pay for it.
    Plan... a "beautiful healthcare system".

  4. #29
    Making people dance. :-)
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    只要茶的供应不受影响就一切都好

  5. #30
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    Dont Let Russia Fool You About the Minsk Agreements

    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    I made the Ukr war thread in 2021 when Ukr pulled out of Minsk 2.
    Still trying to push that bogus ruzzian propaganda, you utter imbecile. I will continue to debunk your kremlin propaganda BS over and over again as long as you continue to post these lies. As I said before, you are a clown who has no credibility...

    Following US President Joe Biden’s phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 7, there is a renewed focus on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements as a way of defusing the current Russian military build-up and finding a lasting settlement of Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine.

    Minsk is deeply flawed and open to wildly different interpretations. So, the positions of Germany and France (which were midwives to the deal), and especially of the United States are of critical importance in preventing Russia from imposing a unilateral interpretation of the Agreements in ways that were never agreed by Ukraine.

    Despite their flaws, however, the Minsk Agreements are essential to the current diplomatic process surrounding Ukraine for two reasons: First, they are the most recent formal, written document to which Russia has subscribed, which affirms Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity; second, Russia’s failure to implement the deal is the basis for keeping EU sanctions in place against Russia. These sanctions must be sustained and strengthened if there is any hope of persuading Russia to end the war.

    If the implementation of Minsk is to be given a fresh impetus in international diplomacy under the Biden Administration and a new German government, it is important to debunk Russian disinformation about the Agreements and reiterate exactly what they mean.

    There are several key points:

    1. There are two Minsk Agreements, not just one. The first “Minsk Protocol” was signed on September 5, 2014. It mainly consists of a commitment to a ceasefire along the existing line of contact, which Russia never respected. By February 2015, fighting had intensified to a level that led to renewed calls for a ceasefire, and ultimately led to the second Minsk Agreement, signed on February 12, 2015. Even after this agreement, Russian-led forces kept fighting and took the town of Debaltseve six days later. The two agreements are cumulative, building on each other, rather than the second replacing the first. This is important in understanding the importance, reflected in the first agreement, of an immediate ceasefire and full monitoring by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), including on the Ukraine-Russia border, as fundamental to the subsequent package of agreements.

    2. Russia is a Party to the Minsk Agreements. The original Minsk signatories are Russia, Ukraine, and the OSCE. Russia is a protagonist in the war in Ukraine and is fully obliged to follow the deal’s terms. Despite that, however, Russia untruthfully claims not to be a party and only a facilitator — and that the real agreements are between Ukraine and the so-called “separatists,” who call themselves the Luhansk and Donetsk Peoples’ Republics (LPR and DPR), but are in fact Russian supplied and directed.

    3. The LPR and DPR are not recognized as legitimate entities under the Minsk Agreements. The signatures of the leaders of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk Peoples’ Republics were added after they had already been signed by Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE. They were not among the original signatories, and indeed Ukraine would not have signed had their signatures been part of the deal. There is nothing in the content or format of the Agreement that legitimizes these entities and they should not be treated as negotiating partners in any sense. Russia alone controls the forces occupying parts of eastern Ukraine.

    4. Russia is in violation of the Minsk Agreements. The deals require a ceasefire, withdrawal of foreign military forces, disbanding of illegal armed groups, and returning control of the Ukrainian side of the international border with Russia to Ukraine, all of this under OSCE supervision. Russia has done none of this. It has regular military officers as well as intelligence operatives and unmarked “little green men” woven into the military forces in Eastern Ukraine. The LPR and DPR forces are by any definition “illegal armed groups,” that have not been disbanded. The ceasefire has barely been respected by the Russian side for more than a few days at a time.

    5. Russian-led forces prevent the OSCE from accomplishing its mission in Donbas as spelled out in the Minsk Agreements. It is an unstated irony in Vienna — understood by every single diplomatic mission and member of the international staff — that Russia approves the mandate of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine when it votes in Vienna, but then blocks implementation of that same mission on the ground in Ukraine. Because Russia is a member of the OSCE, and the SMM wants to preserve what little access it has to the occupied territories, the mission is guarded in what it says about ceasefire violations and restrictions on its freedom of movement. Privately, however, they acknowledge that some 80% of such violations and restrictions come from the Russian-controlled side of the border, and those that occur on the Ukrainian side are largely for safety reasons (e.g., avoiding mined approaches to bridges.)

    Don’t Let Russia Fool You About the Minsk Agreements - CEPA

  6. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmond View Post
    只要茶的供应不受影响就一切都好
    Can you add some sweet and sour chicken balls to that?

    Be round at 7.

  7. #32
    Making people dance. :-)
    Edmond's Avatar
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    Sure thing comrade, there's a resto near here that's unbelieva-bao.

  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Anyone who really knows the PRC and ROC have no worries at all.
    Right. Same nonsense as Russia attacking Ukraine. They won't be that stupid.

  9. #34
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    Right. Same nonsense as Russia attacking Ukraine. They won't be that stupid.
    Russia is not China. Putin is not Xi. Xi is much smarter.

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    Right. Same nonsense as Russia attacking Ukraine. They won't be that stupid.
    Not a valid comparison at all. Two entirely different situations. Honestly, it is absurd to try and draw a parallel.

    The question more aptly asked is will Xi be in power in two years. The situation in China is very dire, the last thing they need is a massive scale defeat attempting the biggest amphibious assault in human history. China got its ass kicked by Vietnam the last time it tried to invade a neighbor. To attempt an amphibious assault on Taiwan is way out of their capability.

  11. #36
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    China in a dire situation may actually be the reason for Xi to do something that stupid, I am afraid.

  12. #37
    5 4 Knoll
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    1 A conflict with India more likley
    2 No furrie Ms Camomile 沒問題 mei wanxi roughly no bother/worries etc
    3 The Tchoew Chow harlots and moneylenders made Thai bend over ass much as backsspin blunder a moose

    Now we have added Xanaxpoo sorry Xanadu with my Absinthe its all Monkey Dory

    Last edited by david44; 24-11-2023 at 06:24 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    comes across as an angry Frank Spencer.
    Quote Originally Posted by Edmond View Post
    I have a genius level IQ

  13. #38
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    David Bowie....

    Such an amazing talent.

    Thank you!

    When thinking about the end of the world, then Bowie comes to mind, in some respects.

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    biggest amphibious assault in human history
    I don't wish to come across as an Overlord

    the Normandy Invasion (1944)




    In the Western theatre, the Normandy Invasion (1944), in which Allied forces successfully invaded the German-held coast of northern France, ranks as the greatest amphibious assault in history.


    Amphibious warfare | Naval Tactics & Strategies - Britannica


  15. #40
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    " Xi is much smarter."

    BOTH Xi and Putin are exceedingly adept at political manipulation, and whatever it takes to remain on top of their political systems.

    However, this does not mean that they are intelligent, in the best sense of the word "intelligent".

  16. #41
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    "In the Western theatre, the Normandy Invasion (1944), in which Allied forces successfully invaded the German-held coast of northern France, ranks as the greatest amphibious assault in history."

    Nobody has ever successfully invaded Formosa by sea.

    Typhoons are a problem.

    Wait and see...

    The attempted invasion of Formosa, by sea, will be China's final downfall.

    And, an attempted invasion, from which, China shall NEVER rise, again!

    Wait and see, my friend.

  17. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by HISTONE H3 View Post
    What are the odds of war between China, Taiwan, the Australians, and the USA?

    I put the odds at over 95 percent within the next five years. And maybe the odds are 70 percent within the next two years.
    Why do you think the chances are so high that there will be a war involving Australia and the USA?

    If China decided to invade Taiwan, do you really think Australia would be involved? Or indeed the USA? Neither country officially recognises the ROC, both having diplomatic relations with PRC China.

    However, ignoring the ambiguous alliances, what would be the advantages to China of invading Taiwan?

  18. #43
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    Yes. Knowing something about how Xi thinks, I am definitely a bit worried about war with China.

    I am worried about that Chinese meal that I just had, the prawns tasted off

  19. #44
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    ^^ Good point well made, Troy.

    Also, if we look at the example of the Ukraine/Russia war, the US/NATO is not getting directly involved in a war with Russia because Russia is a nuclear power and they don't want to risk a nuclear war. The same would go for a war involving China. There's too much at stake for a direct war. It would be sanctions again.



    .
    Last edited by Neverna; 25-11-2023 at 07:56 AM. Reason: extra ^

  20. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    I don't wish to come across as an Overlord

    the Normandy Invasion (1944)
    You think I do not know that D-Day is the largest amphibious invasion to date? Really?

    The point I was making was that an assault on Taiwan would need to be larger in scale than the aforementioned assault. The Chinese could never pull off a combined arms operation of such scale. The Chinese military is at least as shitty as the ruzzians if not worse.

  21. #46
    Thailand Expat DrWilly's Avatar
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    Let’s hope so…

  22. #47
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    Living in sleepy northern Laos, I doubt if anyone would notice if a war broke out between China/PRC/USA etc etc.

    They don't say 'Lao PDR' = 'Lao Please Don't Rush' for nothing

  23. #48
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    You thought Russia was bad....wait till you see China...5555555

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