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  1. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirk diggler View Post
    2. What is this called?
    Jigger?

  2. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by ootai View Post
    My take on it is that there is a 90.25% chance he has the disease.
    My reasoning
    His result was 1 of 95 that show up positive but of that 95 only 95% are accurate therefore .95 x 95 = 90.25
    Of the negative tests only 95% are also accurate which means there is a 4.75% chance of someone getting a negative test result actually has the disease.
    Sorry ootai wrong answer.

  3. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmond View Post
    That's about 30 seconds.

    Which is 20 seconds more that icy's 'teaser' takes.
    I am going to have to give the answer before Ed pulls out the last of his rapidly thinning locks and finally gets sick of PM'ing me for the answer.

    The correct answer is 2%

    You have been diagnosed with a disease that has a prevalence of 1 in a 1000 in the community. The test has an accuracy of 95%. Thus 50 people in every 1000 (5%)will be diagnosed with the disease but 49 will be false positives leaving the chances of you having the disease 1 in 50 or 2%

  4. #129
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    A man was out camping. He left his tent in the morning to take a dump and first walked 500 metres south. After finishing up he walked 500 metres east, turned and walked another 500 metres north.

    He then saw a bear ransacking his tent. What colour was the bear?

  5. #130
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    ^
    That'll be white Mendy, I remember that one from playschool

  6. #131
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    ......

  7. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mendip View Post
    A man was out camping. He left his tent in the morning to take a dump and first walked 500 metres south. After finishing up he walked 500 metres east, turned and walked another 500 metres north.

    He then saw a bear ransacking his tent. What colour were his trousers?
    I have amended your teaser Mendy to make it a bit more challenging.

  8. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    I am going to have to give the answer before Ed pulls out the last of his rapidly thinning locks and finally gets sick of PM'ing me for the answer.

    The correct answer is 2%

    You have been diagnosed with a disease that has a prevalence of 1 in a 1000 in the community. The test has an accuracy of 95%. Thus 50 people in every 1000 (5%)will be diagnosed with the disease but 49 will be false positives leaving the chances of you having the disease 1 in 50 or 2%

    Bullshit!

  9. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by ootai View Post
    Bullshit!
    The disease was not part of the teaser but I am pretty sure it was not bullshit, which I wish you all the best in your recovery from same.

    The answer is 2%, don't dig any deeper there is only so far down stupid can go.


  10. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    I am going to have to give the answer before Ed pulls out the last of his rapidly thinning locks and finally gets sick of PM'ing me for the answer.

    The correct answer is 2%

    You have been diagnosed with a disease that has a prevalence of 1 in a 1000 in the community. The test has an accuracy of 95%. Thus 50 people in every 1000 (5%)will be diagnosed with the disease but 49 will be false positives leaving the chances of you having the disease 1 in 50 or 2%
    I disagree

    50 people get a false result how can you predict whether a false positive or false negative without more data, I think your parameters contain a category error

  11. #136
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    50 people get a false result how can you predict whether a false positive or false negative without more data, I think your parameters contain a category error[/QUOTE]

    Sorry David no error,

    For every 1000 people tested statistically 50 will be diagnosed with the disease, as the test is only 95% accurate and the prevalence is 1 in 1000 the chances of you having the the disease is 1 in 50

    It's basic statistics.

  12. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    how can you predict whether a false positive or false negative without more data
    but you have not refuted this.

    You may be right but how can you know

    1 if the false results were false - or +?
    Your data gives no clue
    2 the disatribution between false positive and false positive?

    In your model can you tell me how many were

    False Positive
    and how many were False Negatives?

    I think not

  13. #138
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    ^ David statistically speaking it dictates that 49 out of 1000 tests will be false positives that leaves 1 out of the 1000 who should have the disease that is 1 from 50 ie 2%
    So we are left with 49 false positives and 1 positive.
    Are you taking the piss?

  14. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirk diggler View Post
    19. What was the first product ever sold online?
    I can't remember exactly, but it was something like a broken lazer pointer.

    --EDIT--

    I googled it and was wrong, as that was the 1st thing sold on Ebay, not the internet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    ^ David statistically speaking it dictates that 49 out of 1000 tests will be false positives that leaves 1 out of the 1000 who should have the disease that is 1 from 50 ie 2%
    So we are left with 49 false positives and 1 positive.
    Are you taking the piss?

    Not taking the piss and you may be right , but you still dont explain how many false negatives do you, or have I missed something. Anyway put up another I need to oil my old brain, perhaps you guys are too smart for me or I misread the OP

    So how many FALSE POSTIVES is my question

  16. #141
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    ^ Read my post it clearly states 49 false positives from 1000.

    Let's get over this one soon, once you all catch up I will post a real contentious head scratcher that will cause great arguments TD style

  17. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    The disease was not part of the teaser but I am pretty sure it was not bullshit, which I wish you all the best in your recovery from same.

    The answer is 2%, don't dig any deeper there is only so far down stupid can go.

    If I go any further I would meet you down there but sorry I questioned you Elon!!

  18. #143
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    ^ Read my post it clearly states 49 false positives from 1000.

    but it doesn''t

    and you still cannot determine how many false negatives from your data set, I give up

    Stick up another





    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    Your doctor tells you that you have a tested positive for a fatal disease that has a prevalence of 1 in 1000 of the general population.The test to determine if you have disease is 95% accurate. You have tested positive for the disease. What are the odds you actually have the disease?
    Nowhere does it state 49, Bayes theorem is clearer

  19. #144
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  20. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    I am going to have to give the answer before Ed pulls out the last of his rapidly thinning locks and finally gets sick of PM'ing me for the answer.

    The correct answer is 2%

    You have been diagnosed with a disease that has a prevalence of 1 in a 1000 in the community. The test has an accuracy of 95%. Thus 50 people in every 1000 (5%)will be diagnosed with the disease but 49 will be false positives leaving the chances of you having the disease 1 in 50 or 2%
    That is a hugely flawed answer. A prevalence of 1 in a 1,000 does mean everyone is tested. And if it did mean everyone was tested, then the accuracy of 95% stands as ... Wait for it....95%.

  21. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    ^ Read my post it clearly states 49 false positives from 1000.

    but it doesn''t

    and you still cannot determine how many false negatives from your data set, I give up

    Stick up another







    Nowhere does it state 49, Bayes theorem is clearer
    Refer you to my post #138

  22. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrWilly View Post
    That is a hugely flawed answer. A prevalence of 1 in a 1,000 does mean everyone is tested. And if it did mean everyone was tested, then the accuracy of 95% stands as ... Wait for it....95%.
    Oh dear

  23. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    50 people get a false result how can you predict whether a false positive or false negative without more data, I think your parameters contain a category error
    Sorry David no error,

    For every 1000 people tested statistically 50 will be diagnosed with the disease, as the test is only 95% accurate and the prevalence is 1 in 1000 the chances of you having the the disease is 1 in 50

    It's basic statistics.[/QUOTE]

    You got your basics statistics wrong.

  24. #149
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    Google might be your friend on this problem. Look it up and check it out.

  25. #150
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    The extent of the testing makes all the difference. Google is not always your friend

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