Alien Suicides

**tomcat** · 25-12-2020, 10:26 AM

There Used to Be Aliens in Our Galaxy, but They Killed Themselves Off

by Caroline Delbert
Thu, December 24, 2020, 8:30 PM GMT+7

From Popular Mechanics

A new mathematical model suggests that any alien life in our galaxy is likely very young.
That's because of the high likelihood that intelligent civilizations "self-annihilate." Oof!
This research adds the dimension of relative age to an ongoing discussion about alien life.

In a new study, researchers suggest the answer to the Fermi paradox could be pretty bleak: Maybe all the intelligent civilizations have annihilated themselves. Jeez, 2020, that’s a little on the nose.

This is the Fermi paradox stated at its most succinct: The universe is unfathomably gigantic, but so far, we’ve never seen any sign that there’s intelligent life anywhere else.

We’ve never observed an extraterrestrial living thing, or uncovered any evidence for extinct ones. As we peer further out into our corner of the universe using more and more powerful telescopes, for example, people continue to hold out hope that we’ll find evidence of a civilization, Dyson sphere, or anything just around the next corner.

But there’s a problem with that line of thinking. A civilization that we’d see from this far away, let alone one that could have built something like a Dyson sphere, is likely to be peering back at us.
Why aren’t they sending telescope satellites through our part of space? And how can it be that out of all the planets and systems we’ve peeked into so far, we’ve seen nothing?

There are as many individual theories as there are theorists, and these run a huge gamut.
“The existence of extraterrestrial intelligence is directly related to habitability and a galactic habitable zone (GHZ); where habitable planets are located and where potential life are most likely to form,” the new study's researchers (three Caltech physicists and one high school student), write:

“Overall, previous studies of habitability and the likelihood of intelligent life have provided many valuable insights; however, the precise propensity of galactic intelligent life to emerge has not yet been explored with spatial and temporal analysis, nor has any research explicitly estimated an age distribution for potential life within the Galaxy.”

These researchers wanted to add nuance to the discussion by increasing the depth of their analysis, and they wanted to gauge how relatively “old” any alien civilizations are likely to be. This is a critical factor in whether or not a civilization can even travel in space or put out intergalactic feelers, because they can only do that from a key “sweet spot.”

Too young, and, like us before very recently, they simply won’t have the means yet. Too old, and they could be stripped of technology in a post-apocalyptic burnout.

They could even be extinct. In fact, the research includes parameters for extinction and the idea of “self annihilation,” a probability that could be extraordinarily high.

“Since we cannot preclude the high possibility of annihilation, [this result] suggests that most of the potential complex life within the Galaxy may still be very young,” the scientists explain. That means there could be a proliferation, but it’s of other civilizations that can’t push out into the galaxy yet—just like us.

What’s the point of research like this? It’s fair to ask, the same way it’s fair to ask questions about projects like SETI, the Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence, in the first place.

But these researchers have a clear goal, which is to place a touchstone for others who want to continue to explore the Fermi paradox. They explain:

“The exact number of the intelligent life estimated here is not the focus of our work. [R]ather, it is instead the development of a statistical, comprehensive galactic picture tracing the potential growth propensity of intelligent life over a course of ~20 billion years.”

Indeed, we don’t know what’s hiding around the next intergalactic corner.

**YourDaddy** · 25-12-2020, 12:37 PM

something like this

**Edmond** · 25-12-2020, 12:52 PM

Lots out there, the problem for us (and them), is quite literally... space and time.

Space - distances that are impossible to cover without wormholes and the mastery of space-time manipulation.

Time - Both civilizations existing at the same time.

**tomcat** · 25-12-2020, 02:33 PM

Originally Posted by Edmond

Space - distances that are impossible to cover without wormholes and the mastery of space-time manipulation.

Time - Both civilizations existing at the same time.

...as well as desire (they may want nothing to do with us even if aware of our splendid existence) and cost benefit (we may have little or nothing to offer each other except satisfaction of curiosity, which may be only a human characteristic)...

**bsnub** · 25-12-2020, 03:01 PM

Stephen Hawking went to so far as to say we should not broadcast our presence in the Universe for fear of a superior alien race wiping us out...

Hawking has spoken publicly about his fears that an advanced alien civilization would have no problem wiping out the human race the way a human might wipe out a colony of ants. At the media event announcing the new project, he noted that human beings have a terrible history of mistreating, and even massacring, other human cultures that are less technologically advanced — why would an alien civilization be any different?

**tomcat** · 25-12-2020, 03:09 PM

...^I understand his concern: unlikely to outrace any aliens after him...

**Edmond** · 25-12-2020, 04:02 PM

Originally Posted by tomcat

curiosity, which may be only a human characteristic)

Not likely, a species without curiosity is not likely to evolve past the development stage... of, say... Chico.

**tomcat** · 25-12-2020, 04:24 PM

...^555...

**Takeovers** · 25-12-2020, 05:57 PM

Read "The Three Body Problem"

The Three-Body Problem (novel) - Wikipedia

My first chinese novel, well worth reading IMO.

Not a central theme of the novel but an interesting perspective. There are 3 interplanetary fleets, European, American (mostly US), Asian (mostly Chinese). The 3 fleets become independent entities. At the time of the novel the 3 fleets are politically closer to each other than to their mother continents.

Making the own civilization known causes 100% likely destruction.

**tomcat** · 25-12-2020, 05:59 PM

...^Just finishing the 2nd volume: engrossing and thought-provoking...

**jabir** · 26-12-2020, 12:51 PM

Pure vanity to presume et life will conform to anything that resembles our understanding of the physical world or the human condition.

Clue here is that from the beginning of time, no end of gods were created with human or other earthly traits, making it convenient to extend that fallacy to other stuff that's currently unprovable.

**tomcat** · 26-12-2020, 04:59 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

Pure vanity to presume et life will conform to anything that resembles our understanding of the physical world or the human condition.

...true, though Hollywood aliens do a good job of polluting non-scientifically oriented minds...

**TheMadBaron** · 26-12-2020, 06:04 PM

We're already here. We've perfected several recipes for longpig, and you are considered something of a delicacy. Shipping costs to the home planet make large-scale exports untenable, so we've established dedicated farms. Domestically farmed meat is much cleaner than the imported product, but connoisseurs insist that Earthborn longpig tastes better. I think it's all in the mind.

**tomcat** · 26-12-2020, 06:08 PM

Originally Posted by TheMadBaron

I think it's all in the mind.

...what's a mind?...

**Saint Willy** · 26-12-2020, 06:11 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

Pure vanity to presume et life will conform to anything that resembles our understanding of the physical world or the human condition.

Clue here is that from the beginning of time, no end of gods were created with human or other earthly traits, making it convenient to extend that fallacy to other stuff that's currently unprovable.

you really do display your lack of understanding of science with that word mosh mash

**TheMadBaron** · 26-12-2020, 06:12 PM

Originally Posted by tomcat

...what's a mind?...

The mind is the set of faculties including cognitive aspects such as consciousness, imagination, perception, thinking, intelligence, judgement, language and memory, as well as noncognitive aspects such as emotion and instinct. Perception, judgement and memory are the operative factors here.

I won't be sharing any pictures of my Christmas dinner.

**tomcat** · 26-12-2020, 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by TheMadBaron

The mind is the set of faculties including cognitive aspects such as consciousness, imagination, perception, thinking, intelligence, judgement, language and memory, as well as noncognitive aspects such as emotion and instinct. Perception, judgement and memory are the operative factors here.

...so, you don't know then...

**Grumpy John** · 26-12-2020, 07:45 PM

To many assumptions being made when we humans know nothing at all about intergalactic aliens...or if they even exist. Sure some people have claimed to have had a close encounter but it's hard to believe an alien life form would not have the power to delete a persons memory of the encounter.

As of yet I haven't seen a giant space ship (a la Independence Day) hovering over Muang Phitsanulok...which would sway me in my thinking!

**TheMadBaron** · 26-12-2020, 07:54 PM

Originally Posted by tomcat

...what's a mind?...

Originally Posted by tomcat

...so, you don't know then...

Is this a philosophical question? Mind is Tao. Or something.

Originally Posted by Grumpy John

Sure some people have claimed to have had a close encounter but it's hard to believe an alien life form would not have the power to delete a persons memory of the encounter.

Decapitation is reliable; other methods can be a bit hit and miss. Safest of all is for extraterrestrials to communicate only with lonely, mentally disturbed individuals who no-one's ever going to believe.

**Cujo** · 26-12-2020, 08:08 PM

Originally Posted by TheRealKW

you really do display your lack of understanding of earth science with that word mosh mash

FTFY,
Are you assuming we humans know everything?

Considering the unfathomable vastness of the universe our reach is that of a knat in the known universe. Anything is possible but the real secrets lie within the inner universe.
Think string theory,

**TheMadBaron** · 26-12-2020, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by Cujo

knat

gnat*

"Knat" is the past tense of "knit," you nit.

Urban Dictionary: Knat

**Cujo** · 26-12-2020, 08:21 PM

dpsoly

**Saint Willy** · 26-12-2020, 08:33 PM

Originally Posted by Cujo

FTFY,
Are you assuming we humans know everything?
,

no where did I suggest that, please show me if you think I did.

n
[QUOTE=Cujo;4200651

Considering the unfathomable vastness of the universe our reach is that of a knat in the known universe. Anything is possible but the real secrets lie within the inner universe.
Think string theory,[/QUOTE]y ah... crack on

**jabir** · 27-12-2020, 09:21 AM

Originally Posted by TheRealKW

you really do display your lack of understanding of science with that word mosh mash

Easy, instead of persistently attacking posters with dumb comments, you could demonstrate your own understanding of science by addressing content.

Something to fantasise, eh?

**Cujo** · 28-12-2020, 07:32 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

Easy, instead of persistently attacking posters with dumb comments, you could demonstrate your own understanding of science by addressing content.

Something to fantasise, eh?

Yep, KW seems light on the ability to play the ball rather than the player.

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