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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Fooled by Randomness. The hidden role of chance.

    Its a book. By Nassim Taleb. Have you ever heard of it ? Its well worth a read/listen. Here are some quotes:


    “Those who were unlucky in life in spite of their skills would eventually rise. The lucky fool might have benefited from some luck in life; over the longer run he would slowly converge to the state of a less-lucky idiot. Each one would revert to his long-term properties.”

    “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”

    “A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in light of the information available until that point”

    “Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette - and calling it by some alternative “low risk” game.”

    "No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word.”

    “More generally, we underestimate the share of randomness in about everything, a point that may not merit a book—except when it is the specialist who is the fool of all fools. We seem to have evidence that what is called “courage” comes from an underestimation of the share of randomness in things rather than the more noble ability to stick one’s neck out for a given belief. In my experience (and in the scientific literature), economic “risk takers” are rather the victims of delusions (leading to overoptimism and overconfidence with their underestimation of possible adverse outcomes) than the opposite."

    “Of course chance favors the prepared! Hard work, showing up on time, wearing a clean (preferably white) shirt, using deodorant, and some such conventional things contribute to success—they are certainly necessary but may be insufficient as they do not cause success.”

    “It certainly takes bravery to remain skeptical; it takes inordinate courage to introspect, to confront oneself, to accept one's limitations."

    "At any point in time, the richest traders are often the worst traders. This, I will call the cross-sectional problem: At a given time in the market, the most successful traders are likely to be those that are best fit to the latest cycle. This does not happen too often with dentists or pianists—because these professions are more immune to randomness.

    The book is punchy at the start

    Free audio copy right here
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    Last edited by Backspin; 19-09-2020 at 10:23 AM.

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat
    aging one's Avatar
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    Looks like a bible for losers..

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aging one View Post
    Looks like a bible for losers..
    Then go buy Donald Trumps book.

  4. #4
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    Don't think Luck, think Probability. As any person who has enjoyed a modicum of success will tell you, they have been both lucky and unlucky.
    Learn from your failures, capitalise on your successes. And be tenacious- don't be a snowflake. That's the best advice I can give, apart from educate yourself.

  5. #5
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Don't think Luck, think Probability. As any person who has enjoyed a modicum of success will tell you, they have been both lucky and unlucky.
    Learn from your failures, capitalise on your successes. And be tenacious- don't be a snowflake. That's the best advice I can give, apart from educate yourself.
    Have you heard of this book ?

    Btw.

    "The problem with information is not that it is diverting and generally useless, but that it is toxic."

  6. #6
    I Amn't In Jail PlanK's Avatar
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    Reads like the author has had an attempt at quantifying/qualifying the old piece of wisdom: Shit Happens!

    It's not a new concept for many, it's something we all learn eventually.

  7. #7
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    Information is merely Data- it is not Toxic, unless you make it so (cue the pathetic standard of what passes for debate on TD these days).
    Use it for actual learning and knowledge, rather than to pathetically reinforce your own narrow paradigms and prepackaged opinions, and you too might rise above.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Have you heard of this book ?

    Btw.

    "The problem with information is not that it is diverting and generally useless, but that it is toxic."
    The problem is, you have plenty of knowledge, but very little understanding.That includes the difference between those two words.

  9. #9
    Excommunicated baldrick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    "The problem with information is
    that most people are not prepared to put in the effort to understand it

  10. #10
    Thailand Expat raycarey's Avatar
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    of course randomness / luck / fate is a part of life that is beyond our control...but the OP really is a pussy.

    constantly looking for any excuse to blame anyone but himself for his inadequacies and failures in life.

    stop being such a whiny, little bitch.

  11. #11
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Have you heard of this book ?
    Why would sabang be interested? He clearly already knows it all.


    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    you too might rise above.






  12. #12
    Thailand Expat
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    ^ What makes it worse is he knows little to nothing about anything. Then tries to play along with the "big boys". He reminds me of a 6 year old brother trying to hang with his big brother and friends. Its particularly bad when he tries to discuss Asia and in specific Thailand.

  13. #13
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raycarey View Post
    of course randomness / luck / fate is a part of life that is beyond our control...but the OP really is a pussy.

    constantly looking for any excuse to blame anyone but himself for his inadequacies and failures in life.

    stop being such a whiny, little bitch.
    What are you some Ann Randian now raycarey ?


    I didn't blow myself up (meaning lose everything) Far from it.
    Last edited by Backspin; 19-09-2020 at 09:59 AM.

  14. #14
    I'm in Jail

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    It's a great book, and food for thought. I've had it for three or four years, Thanks for the reminder to re-read it.


    Fooled by Randomness. The hidden role of chance.-taleb-jpg

  15. #15
    Thailand Expat
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    Well that is just perfect. Great minds think alike.. Two winners for sure.

  16. #16
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Bootstraps anyone ?

    Urban dictionary

    Pull Yourself Up By Your Bootstraps
    As someone who's come from an upper middle class family, got rich in early 30's, lost all money over women and got poor in mid 30's, got rich again briefly afterwards, got very poor again afterwards living in a shelter, and then finally got rich yet again... I can attest that every time I got back up, I pulled myself up by my bootstraps. It was a very effective technique. I recommend it!
    Joe: Mom, they fired me from the job! Said I can't code for shit!
    Mom: Just pull yourself up by your bootstraps son!

  17. #17
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aging one View Post
    Well that is just perfect. Great minds think alike.. Two winners for sure.
    Not exactly sterling endorsements for sure.


  18. #18
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aging one View Post
    Well that is just perfect. Great minds think alike.. Two winners for sure.
    AO, AO. It's not a guru book. It's the anti guru book

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat raycarey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    It's the anti guru book
    with a thesis that is being misconstrued by a pathetic, whiny, little bitch who looks for any opportunity to explain away his inadequacies.

  20. #20
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Imagine seeing those two endorsements on the fly leaf when browsing in a book shop.

    Fooled by Randomness. The hidden role of chance.-giphy-gif

  21. #21
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Imagine seeing those two endorsements on the fly leaf when browsing in a book shop.

    Fooled by Randomness. The hidden role of chance.-giphy-gif
    Same author

    His 2007 book The Black Swan has been described by The Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.[2]

    Some of you been living under a rock or what. I've read his 3 most popular. Fooled by Randomness is by far the best one. Only worthwhile one actually

  22. #22
    I'm in Jail

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    Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Wikipedia

    Taleb is the author of the Incerto, a five volume philosophical essay on uncertainty published between 2001 and 2018 (of which the most known books are The Black Swan and Antifragile). He has been a professor at several universities, serving as a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at the New York University Tandon School of Engineering since September 2008.[3][4][5][6][7] He has been co-editor-in-chief of the academic journal Risk and Decision Analysis since September 2014. He has also been a practitioner of mathematical finance, a hedge fund manager, and a derivatives trader, and is currently listed as a scientific adviser at Universa Investments.[8]




  23. #23
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raycarey View Post
    with a thesis that is being misconstrued by a pathetic, whiny, little bitch who looks for any opportunity to explain away his inadequacies.
    It sounds like you know of the book and its thesis. Which make your little rant here a contradiction.

  24. #24
    Thailand Expat raycarey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    It sounds like you know of the book
    it sounds like you're a pussy.


  25. #25
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    I posted that pic of the bargirl and my friend from 2008. Then I searched to see if Roxy bar still exists and came across this

    I am ***** ******, I’m from Coventry, United Kingdom and I have been living in Pattaya, Thailand for over 12 years. (since 2006 to present) I arrived here with a dream, a website, a one-way ticket and 600 GBP.

    I started earning a living 13-14 years ago doing internet marketing, website design, SEO and created a large local forum called *****.com which now has over 157,000 members, *******#ts.com with over 50,000 members and ********ts.com with over 20,000 members, which gave me good skills at community management, conflict resolution and management.

    Later on in 2012, I founded **** ***##went from one bar to a medium-sized business with currently over 500+ staff and 29 bars and still growing with a target of 65 bars,

    -------------------------

    Really , good for him. I don't want to take anything away from him but... Time to re read Fooled By Randomness.

    Me and my friend did sit on the curb in Pattaya and talked about buying a bar. But it never went past that. I would have been the money behind it, like a few other of my failed ventures with knowledgeable but bad business partners.

    But this guy did the same and ended up becoming a Pattaya oligarch.
    Last edited by Backspin; 19-09-2020 at 08:42 PM.

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