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  1. #1
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    david44's Avatar
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    There may be Rubble Ahead , rumblings in California again

    Recent tremors in the lovely central band not far from Monterey and Carmel, vibrations were felt in Bay area



    San Andreas Fault Hit By Earthquake Swarm As Concerns Over 'The Big One' Continue to Mount

    Magma constipation, raises fears of the

    BIG ONE
    I used to have a job at a calendar factory.
    I got the sack because
    I took a couple of days off.

  2. #2
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    https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/

    The ShakeOut Scenario


    This “ShakeMap” is a representation of the shaking produced by the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The colors represent the Modified Mercalli Intensity with the warmer colors representing areas of greater damage (from figure 1.2).

    Overview

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009.
    Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now—before the earthquake—to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region’s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario.
    The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four categories: building damages, non-structural damages, damage to lifelines and infrastructure, and fire losses. The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake is modeled to cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses. These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and economic resiliency. These numbers are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done.
    The earthquake modeled here may never happen. Big earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault are inevitable, and by geologic standards extremely common, but probably will not be exactly like this one. The next very damaging earthquake could easily be on another fault. However, lessons learned from this particular event apply to many other events and could provide benefits in many possible future events.

  3. #3
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    More rumblings

    t appears that something unusual is happening along the California coastline. Over the past 24 hours, California has been hit by 46 earthquakes.
    That is approximately twice the normal daily number, and much of the shaking has taken place in the southern part of the state. In recent weeks I have been writing repeatedly about the alarming seismic activity that we have been seeing along the west coast, and many believe that the potential for a megaquake is significantly higher than normal right now. Unfortunately, most residents of California are not paying any attention to what is going on at all, and so if there is a major event they will be completely blindsided by it.
    When a magnitude 4.0 earthquake struck near Julian, California on Wednesday, that immediately got my attention, and that quake was followed very rapidly by several others
    The shaking began at 4:33 p.m. on Wednesday when a 4.0 quake occurred nearly 10 miles beneath the earth’s surface, just east of the Earthquake Valley fault, one of the most active systems in Southern California. The temblor had originally been listed at 4.2.
    The main shock was followed five minutes later by a 3.0 aftershock in the same spot. Then a 3.6 quake occurred near the same spot at 7:57 p.m. Wednesday.
    Seismologists say that a 3.6 quake broke in the same area at 2:32 a.m. on Thursday, continuing the seismic spasm.
    Of course Julian is not the only one that has seen a substantial earthquake over the past 24 hours. Just 6 hours ago, a magnitude 3.2 earthquake struck Gonzales, California. Anything in the magnitude 3 or magnitude 4 range is not going to cause any significant damage, but the concern is that these smaller quakes may be building up to something larger.
    According to a study published by the USGS, there is a “99% chance” that California will be hit by a major earthquake within the next 30 years
    In a 2008 study, the US Geological Survey found there’s a greater than 99% chance of a 6.7 magnitude quake or larger hitting the California area over the next 30 years. That type of quake along the San Andreas Fault in Southern California could kill an estimated 1,800 people, the study said, injure 53,000 and result in $214 billion in damage. California’s infrastructure could be crippled for weeks, if not months.
    Such an event would definitely be catastrophic, but California could definitely recover.
    However, if the California coastline were to be hit by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, the devastation would be unlike anything that we have ever seen before in American history.
    Not too long ago, the Los Angeles Times published an article that discussed what the damage from a magnitude 8.2 earthquake would look like. The following is a short excerpt from that article
    Main freeways to Las Vegas and Phoenix that cross the San Andreas fault would be destroyed in this scenario; Interstate 10 crosses the fault in a dozen spots, and Interstate 15 would see the roadway sliced where it crosses the fault, with one part of the roadway shifted from the other by 15 feet, Jones said.
    “Those freeways cross the fault, and when the fault moves, they will be destroyed, period,” Jones said. “To be that earthquake, it has to move that fault, and it has to break those roads.”
    The aqueducts that bring in 88% of Los Angeles’ water supply and cross the San Andreas fault all could be damaged or destroyed, Jones said.
    And remember, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake would be far, far worse than a magnitude 8.2 earthquake.
    At the same time all of this shaking has been happening in California, we have also seen very disturbing seismic activity elsewhere on the globe.
    For example, just recently a supervolcano in Russia shot hot volcanic ash “six miles into the sky”
    A Siberian super-volcano is worrying scientists after it’s shocking and sudden eruption flung hot ash six miles into the sky. This volcano is one of the most active in Russia.
    Scientists working at the geophysical department of the Russian Academy of Science in north-eastern Russia’s Kamchatka Krai region have confirmed the giant eruption took place at the site of the Shiveluch Volcano yesterday over a 20 minute period. They also verified and saw the volcano spew piping hot ash 10 kilometers (6 miles) into the sky. So far, no locals or villages have been affected by this volcano’s eruption, but it’s sparking fears that a larger and more powerful explosion could occur in the very near future.
    A major eruption of just a single supervolcano anywhere in the world could cast enormous amounts of dust and ash into the atmosphere and cool global temperatures significantly for up to a decade. If that happened, we would see massive crop failures all over the planet and millions upon millions of people could end up dying from the resulting famine.
    With each passing year our planet is becoming increasingly unstable, and scientists assure us that absolutely cataclysmic seismic events are in our future. Now is the time to get prepared, but unfortunately most people aren’t listening to the warnings.


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    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    ^ With that potential disaster and their current and recent fires.

    Poor buggers can seem to 'take a trick' (have a win) these days.

  6. #6
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Damn you david44! I've been singing Casey Jones for weeks now.


  7. #7
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    ^ Love me some Dead!

    That said many of your may well not be aware of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The potention for a massive earthquake in the PNW is very real. Some links;

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone

    Simulation shows how Pacific Northwest could be decimated by megaquake on Cascadia fault | Daily Mail Online

    This link below is the must read out of all these links if your are interested in earthquakes at all....

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...really-big-one

  8. #8
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    ^ Not a Dead fan but did go Once to see the strangeness that is a Greatful Dead show. Ticket stub in my desk drawer after all this time.



    Glad I did, too. Jerry Garcia died just a few months afterward.
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