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  1. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealKW View Post
    is that all?

    it looks double that or more.
    Try it yourself. It is easy with a software like Irfanview. That's what I used.

    I am lazy. Others have drawn a vertical line then counted pixels and did some math. The method I used is a lot easier and I am pretty sure it is more precise too.
    "don't attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence"

  2. #252
    Thailand Expat TheRealKW's Avatar
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    Agreed,Iím just surprised that the lean is so pronouced

  3. #253
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    A nice pop of a test tank last night. They have tested their build SN7.1 to intentional destruction. We are now waiting and hoping that Elon Musk will reveal the pressure that was reached when it popped. He frequently but not always gives those numbers. What they need for a human rated vehicle is a burst pressure of 8.4 bar, which was likely reached but we don't know. This tank was built with a new steel alloy. New for SpaceX Starship, but still off the shelf everyday steel available from many vendors.

    The tank was filled with liquid nitrogen and then pressurized. A nice visual effect.


  4. #254
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    Next will be Starship SN8. This one is intended to do the first flight to higher altitude, 20km, then fall down in a horizontal position, stabilized by 4 aero surfaces, until it turns vertical for engine powered landing. A fan animation showing the process. Elon Musk saw it and confirmed that it will be very much like this. SN8 is almost ready for initial tests and we hope it will do this flight before end of October. Elon Musk believes it may survive. But excitement will be guaranteed success or fail. If it fails, they will have SN 9 and 10 very soon to repeat the test. Every build will have improvements over the previous ones.


  5. #255
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    A photo of SN8 with one aerosurface already installed.

    SpaceX - On to Mars-owss-jpg



    Operations at Boca Chica continue at breakneck speed. Presently they are building the orbital launch pad for the full Starship stack. The most powerful rocket ever designed. Also a new highbay with 81m height, for assembly of the first stage of that rocket only. The building has space for housing 4 huge first stages. The first and second stages are intended to do up to thousands of flights. But they are preparing to build them at build rates not achieved since the cold war when hundreds of ICBMs were built in a year. Preparation for building a City on Mars which will require millions of tons of materials to be shipped to Mars.

    We can doubt it is achievable. But we should not doubt that Elon Musk is preparing to make it happen.

    SN8 was built in the building now called midbay because it is smaller than the new highbay building. The picture is in front of midbay.

  6. #256
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    BTW the motors driving the aerosurfaces and the batteries driving the motors are off the shelf Tesla products.

    Note that this is the second stage and does not have the cargo section yet, only the propulsion section. The first stage will be a lot bigger than that. They have now begun building the first test version of the first stage too.

  7. #257
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    The upper tank dome burst. A closeup picture after the event.

    SpaceX - On to Mars-eimwbp7xyaazrxv-jpg

  8. #258
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    Payload fairing with the upper flaps was added. It is a full size upper stage now. The part that will go to Mars, once ready. Getting closer to the first flight up to 15km. Still some work to do.

    SpaceX - On to Mars-sn8-full-stack-jpg


    For size of that thing look at the people in a cherrypicker about half way up. A much bigger version of this pic for those who like to look for details. The whole area is still a construction site. Watching the live YouTube channel you can see an endless stream of dump trucks bringing in sand and concrete trucks.

    https://i.redd.it/u99je60f6xu51.jpg

  9. #259
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    A number of engine and tanking tests have been done. They moved the flaps slow and fast. After a last tanking test this night the big moment of the first flight to 15km is approaching. There is a NOTAM out beginning on friday, a Notice To Air Men, blocking the airspace in the test area.

    SpaceX - On to Mars-40002800nq-jpg

    For those with too much time on their hand a 3 hour video of last nights test. You could skip through and see how Starship frosts over, vents and releases some oxygen or nitrogen.



    Elon Musk gives a non zero chance of a completely successful flight. Chance of dropping into the water in one piece or in many, or producing a crater in the landing site is high. If it fails, no problem, the next version SN9 is almost finished. In any case they will get a lot of telemetry data to find out what went wrong.

    Elon promised live coverage of the flight. But it may be so short that most miss it and will have to look through replays. Best case, everything works perfectly it is maybe 5 minutes. Not knowing when it happens, it will be hard to see live.

    Presently they are building them faster than they can test them, each build a little better than the previous one. This one is Serial Number 8. Latest from Elon Musk, around SN15 will be ready for orbital flight. Components of SN15 have been spotted already.

  10. #260
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    In the mean time, us space fans don't know if we should have a laugh riot or should cry about NASAs Orion capsule. That development has cost already more than Spacex anticipates for designing Starship and setting up a manned Mars base.

    Now come news that a component of the first finished flight version of Orion is faulty. Expected repair time to disassable, change the component, reassemble and test the vehicle again, is

    1 year.

    This is so sad that for once I refrained from mocking the SLS/Orion fans in their forum. They feel like crying already.

  11. #261
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    When do you think there'll be a first human on Mars, TO?

  12. #262
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmond View Post
    When do you think there'll be a first human on Mars, TO?

    .....and then what?

  13. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmond View Post
    When do you think there'll be a first human on Mars, TO?
    If it is up to NASA, I say never. They have unsubstantiated concepts for some time in the 2030 decade. But I don't see a realistic chance for that to happen. Maybe if China is moving in that direction, Congress and NASA may wake up but I don't bet on that.

    I can only go with Elons latest estimate. He thinks there is a very good chance that they can go to Mars with cargo Starships in 2024 and then manned in 2026. Presently they are on track to be ready for flight in 2023 but will have to wait for the Mars launch window to open in 2024, so 1 year buffer for schedule slip.

    He said if everything goes very smooth it may be 2022/2024. But this kind of thing never goes very smooth. I would be very happy about people going to Mars in 2026, or even 2028.


    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    .....and then what?
    First build a permanently manned base, that's immediately with first landing. After people arrive for the first time there will be people on Mars continuously.

    Then expand it to a City on Mars. Elons goal is to have a City with 1 million people on Mars soon. With the aim to make it self sufficient. Meaning it survives if ships from Earth stop coming. This may be too optimistic, we will see.

  14. #264
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    Very cool, cheers TO.

  15. #265
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    ....and then what?
    a lot of flag planting, barbed wire, later on war..

  16. #266
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    Maybe I should add, again, that Starship is completely different to anything ever tried yet. Many experts in the traditional space industry still scoff at the concept. They doubt, it can ever successfully fly orbital at all. Much less at the cost SpaceX is trying to reach.

    There is the possibility that SpaceX fails and Starship indeed never works as planned. ​But that's not different to any other project Elon Musk has ever started. In the eyes of the experts they were all doomed to failure. Until they succeeded.

    If it works out as planned, Starship can fly to orbit at cost below $ 5 million. Maybe 200t of propellant to orbit for $ 2 million. 100t of payload to the surface of Mars for $20-30 million. These are marginal cost. SpaceX will need to charge higher prices than that to make a profit and recoup their development investment.

    While NASA struggles to send a payload larger than 1t to Mars, anything larger than the Curiosity rover. NASA tried and so far failed to develop a concept that can increase Mars landed paylod to 3-5 t.

  17. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    NASA struggles to send a payload larger than 1t to Mars
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    100t of payload
    Well take a look at Musky Big Balls.


    It's gonna be bonza good if he manages to do it all successfully.




    Quote Originally Posted by lom View Post
    a lot of flag planting
    Interestingly there's been thought about the design for the Martian flag lately, or the colony's flag at least. Musky likes an orangy red number with the Falcon 9 flying through the sun in the middle.

  18. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmond View Post
    Interestingly there's been thought about the design for the Martian flag
    Will he have a constitution for the newly established colony?

  19. #269
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Will he have a constitution for the newly established colony?
    Elon Musk is a proponent of direct democracy. He thinks in the time of the internet it becomes possible to vote directly on any laws. He also proposes that laws need to have a limited term and need to be voted on again to continue being laws. He thinks it will be up to the people on Mars to decide the framework of their government structure.


    BTW, you may have heard that SpaceX Starlink is now selling beta services of their Starlink internet in the US and Canada. Their general terms and conditions in the contract includes a paragraph saying that Starlink services on Mars and in Spaceships are not subject to any conditions set by authorities on Earth.
    Last edited by Takeovers; 03-12-2020 at 10:41 PM.

  20. #270
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Will he have a constitution for the newly established colony?
    Every man and woman for themselves, streamed live, with a bit of luck.

  21. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    in the time of the internet it becomes possible to vote directly on any laws
    Which is getting, currently a pretty bad press.



    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    BTW, you may have heard that SpaceX Starlink
    That "news" was what prompted the question.

    This post maybe moving outside your intended thread remit. If so please move to another.

    We are arriving, possibly, at a point in time where technically most of the problems can be solved, as illustrated in this thread.

    Whereas "international/terrestrial" relationships have yet to be discussed or are we to accept the first come/the ability to defend one's "land" equals ownership. It always was in the past. Stick a flag in the ground and proclaim the sovereign owned all that could be subdued and defended from others.

    This may become a subject, where previously their were official statements by the corresponding country space actors, which needs more discussion internationally.

    If other countries are able to move forward utilising robots rather than human experts/tools, will the robots/robot's handlers have a vote or just humans?

    I've not seen much on advanced robots international agreed robot rights and responsibilities. A time will come when this question must be discussed.
    Last edited by OhOh; Yesterday at 01:12 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

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