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  1. #2426
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    A chronic decrease in domestic demand leading to a collapse in the property market exposing bank balances to catastrophic losses giving rise to a credit squeeze hastening a recession would of course see the baht weaken but is that all likely?
    yes it is, again all you need is a trigger

    this is the same as the sub-prime, the thing could have lasted another decade, but when MBS traders started to deep analyze the deplation pattern of the tranches, they started to realize the current PSA pricing model was fucked, and everything was overpriced or unjustified, so liquidity disappeared completely overnight and the bid-ask spread widened indefinitely to a bid of 0, basically meaning prices went to 0 from 100

  2. #2427
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    Yes, but that was a scam in which debt was bundled into an instrument that was falsely misrepresented as a viable asset which in truth mostly resolved to a chicken shack in a Louisiana swamp mortgaged to a bankrupted blind coon with a serious alcohol addiction.

    Are the metrics the same here in Thailand?

  3. #2428
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    Yes, but that was a scam in which debt was bundled into an instrument that was falsely misrepresented as a viable asset which in truth mostly resolved to a chicken shack in a Louisiana swamp mortgaged to a bankrupted blind coon with a serious alcohol addiction.

    Are the metrics the same here in Thailand?
    probably, and lending to the poor is always a profitable business

    it wasn't a scam per se, it became unstable when the underlying qualified loans changed demographics, and the stupid "investors" were willing to sacrifice everything for an extra 1% yield, and of course the credit rating agency not doing their job, but that wasn't new

    basically the underlying pricing model to MBS was making too many assumptions that didn't hold with time,

    now interest rates path are being factored in, and so are the lenders behaviors in pre-payments pattern

    interestingly it wasn't the default that was the biggest issue, but the pre-payments pattern, and that included re-financing, or even buying out the loan. No wonder the support tranches went fooking bust in very little time. Without the support tranches, you were overpaying for credit tranches and the duration tranches. The whole thing collapsed like a house of cards.

  4. #2429
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    a chicken shack in a Issan swamp mortgaged to a local gangster with a serious alcohol addiction and previous GBH convictions.
    Similar, in some locations, allegedly.

  5. #2430
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  6. #2431
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  7. #2432
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    39 oooohhhh, tiz the season to be jolly unless you are Mr Sausages or Syb and in that case fha la la la la fook off ya miserable pricks. I am going to enjoy my Changovers.

  8. #2433
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    40 for Christmas would be nice.

    And I still can't believe I'm 'hoping' for 40 Baht to the pound.

  9. #2434
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    UK dog chew futures remain incredibly resiliant in the face of the all powerful Baht.

  10. #2435
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mendip View Post
    40 for Christmas would be nice.

    And I still can't believe I'm 'hoping' for 40 Baht to the pound.
    Look at the bright side, the Oracle (SA) was calling $ parity, so I already feel like 30% in front.


  11. #2436
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mendip View Post
    40 for Christmas would be nice.

    And I still can't believe I'm 'hoping' for 40 Baht to the pound.

  12. #2437
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mendip View Post
    40 for Christmas would be nice.

    And I still can't believe I'm 'hoping' for 40 Baht to the pound.

  13. #2438
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  14. #2439
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    I'm going to take the Mrs to Somboon so she can treat me.

  15. #2440
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  16. #2441
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    C'mon, greenback! 31 by the New Year, m-kay?

    ​(Currency I earn is pegged to the Yankee dollar)

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