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  1. #2426
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    A chronic decrease in domestic demand leading to a collapse in the property market exposing bank balances to catastrophic losses giving rise to a credit squeeze hastening a recession would of course see the baht weaken but is that all likely?
    yes it is, again all you need is a trigger

    this is the same as the sub-prime, the thing could have lasted another decade, but when MBS traders started to deep analyze the deplation pattern of the tranches, they started to realize the current PSA pricing model was fucked, and everything was overpriced or unjustified, so liquidity disappeared completely overnight and the bid-ask spread widened indefinitely to a bid of 0, basically meaning prices went to 0 from 100

  2. #2427
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    Yes, but that was a scam in which debt was bundled into an instrument that was falsely misrepresented as a viable asset which in truth mostly resolved to a chicken shack in a Louisiana swamp mortgaged to a bankrupted blind coon with a serious alcohol addiction.

    Are the metrics the same here in Thailand?

  3. #2428
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    Yes, but that was a scam in which debt was bundled into an instrument that was falsely misrepresented as a viable asset which in truth mostly resolved to a chicken shack in a Louisiana swamp mortgaged to a bankrupted blind coon with a serious alcohol addiction.

    Are the metrics the same here in Thailand?
    probably, and lending to the poor is always a profitable business

    it wasn't a scam per se, it became unstable when the underlying qualified loans changed demographics, and the stupid "investors" were willing to sacrifice everything for an extra 1% yield, and of course the credit rating agency not doing their job, but that wasn't new

    basically the underlying pricing model to MBS was making too many assumptions that didn't hold with time,

    now interest rates path are being factored in, and so are the lenders behaviors in pre-payments pattern

    interestingly it wasn't the default that was the biggest issue, but the pre-payments pattern, and that included re-financing, or even buying out the loan. No wonder the support tranches went fooking bust in very little time. Without the support tranches, you were overpaying for credit tranches and the duration tranches. The whole thing collapsed like a house of cards.

  4. #2429
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    a chicken shack in a Issan swamp mortgaged to a local gangster with a serious alcohol addiction and previous GBH convictions.
    Similar, in some locations, allegedly.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  5. #2430
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    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  6. #2431
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    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  7. #2432
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    39 oooohhhh, tiz the season to be jolly unless you are Mr Sausages or Syb and in that case fha la la la la fook off ya miserable pricks. I am going to enjoy my Changovers.

  8. #2433
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    40 for Christmas would be nice.

    And I still can't believe I'm 'hoping' for 40 Baht to the pound.

  9. #2434
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    UK dog chew futures remain incredibly resiliant in the face of the all powerful Baht.

  10. #2435
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mendip View Post
    40 for Christmas would be nice.

    And I still can't believe I'm 'hoping' for 40 Baht to the pound.
    Look at the bright side, the Oracle (SA) was calling £$ parity, so I already feel like 30% in front.


  11. #2436
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mendip View Post
    40 for Christmas would be nice.

    And I still can't believe I'm 'hoping' for 40 Baht to the pound.
    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  12. #2437
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mendip View Post
    40 for Christmas would be nice.

    And I still can't believe I'm 'hoping' for 40 Baht to the pound.
    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  13. #2438
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    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  14. #2439
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    I'm going to take the Mrs to Somboon so she can treat me.

  15. #2440
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    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  16. #2441
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    C'mon, greenback! 31 by the New Year, m-kay?

    ​(Currency I earn is pegged to the Yankee dollar)
    Pues, aquí estamos.

    Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.

  17. #2442
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    40 or not 40, that is the question

  18. #2443
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    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  19. #2444
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    ^Every tick up of the Tory polled lead reflected by his financiers actions. Election interference?
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  20. #2445
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    40 or not 40, that is the question
    These spurious waypoints at so-called significant thresholds are quite laughable, really, but surely illustrate why the study of economics is described as the dismal science.

    The actual economics of Britain will not alter if BoJo wins a majority vote from the stupid given that the current account deficit will remain on its now upward trajectory, the debt to GDP ratio will stick in the range of 86%, manufacturing will continue to contract and the increasing possibility of a dumb BoJo/ERG fuck up in the EU FTA negotiations will ensure an annual Brexit loss of £60 billions in GDP.

    The only metric to change is that whereas before the process was dependent on parliament's ability to prevent insanity it is now certain Brexit will fuck us all up.......and we all know how much the markets like certainty.

    Which is why we have the current upward valuation.

  21. #2446
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    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  22. #2447
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    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  23. #2448
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    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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  24. #2449
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    So what's the prediction if a Tory victory?

    42 tomorrow?

  25. #2450
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mendip View Post
    So what's the prediction if a Tory victory?

    42 tomorrow?
    I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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