Thread: Thai Baht Rates .

Apologies for this, but it might add something to the thread, or not

this is going nowhere, FFS

should crash anytime soon now,

"Dillinger " Superrich " Dillinger "

CURRENCY	DENOMINATION	BUYING RATE	SELLING RATE
USDUnited States	100	30.19	30.22
50	30.19	30.22
10 - 20	30.04	30.12
5	29.94	30.12
1	29.59	29.92
GBPUnited Kingdom	50	39.00	39.10
20- 5	38.90	39.00
EUREuropean Union	500-100	33.20	33.30
50	33.15	33.25
20-5	33.10	33.25
CHFSwitzerland	1000 - 10	30.15	30.30
AUDAustralia	100 - 5	20.40	20.50

https://www.superrichthailand.com/#!/en/exchange

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

rash anytime soon now,

again.....

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

this is going nowhere, FFS

should crash anytime soon now,

Thai household debt at record high, tourism and export way down. With prime rate at 1.25% really no room for central bank to move.

Not sure a crash but something has to give.

it's going to happen, could be as early as Jan 2020 or Feb 2O20

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

it's going to happen, could be as early as Jan 2020 or Feb 2O20

Read something yesterday saying central bank going to take action first quarter 2020. No detail so what they intend to do a mystery. I know little about this stuff but seems to me a lot of folks must be buying baht.

and buying a lot of gold,

maybe March or April is a better month for a THB crash

There will be no crash, not least because the economy is still very much stabilised by a combination of relatively low government debt - only 41% of GDP - high rates of FDI which have surged this year amounting to $10 billion and an accrued FDI stock investment of $220 billions, and a low inflation rate of a mere 1%. Exports are weakening and household debt is high but in an environment where employment levels are being maintained with the boom in FDI, as supply chains are moving away from traditional markets, means these debt levels are getting serviced.
Thai investment in infrastructure, education and health is still too low but conservative public expenditure is still very much influenced by the 1997 crash which scarred the financial establishment to a degree that they will never ever permit again the circumstances that led to the collapse.

I see no great movement at all and any change in the baht's exchange rate with £ will of course be influenced by the current Brexit/Tory shambles and little else.

A hung parliament in the UK will ensure a 36-39 range as the British economy is further exposed to market losses caused by contraction in trade, manufacturing and the services sector.

Frankly, there are no grounds for optimism at all and guesstimating a devaluation in the baht is more whimsy and wishful thinking.

Looks like another trip back to California and a road trip from there again this year. Just cant pass up the exchange rate.

Th tourism aspect is misleading. Yes, it is weakening this year in terms of arriving numbers but let's get that into perspective - in 2002 tourism accounted for 8% of GDP, last year it was nigh on 20%.

Exports are price sensitive to a degree but in the end they are more dependent on demand and global trends - China's current decline has much more of an impact on the economy than the relative strength of the baht.

With a resurgent China, and a rapprochement with the US once they get rid of the idiot Trump, the Thai economy will gain more traction and if anything the baht could well strengthen even more.

The only other factor likely to affect the currency would be civil commotion arising from political turbulence but I rather think those days are gone for at least the next decade or so.

Related. Sorry can copy, paste.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...oncerns-abound

it only takes a few FX traders to see an opportunity in the overvalued THB, and crash the whole country

the currency play is just the trigger,

is Thailand more financially secure from 1997? yes and no, it is certainly better prepared but also a bigger country financially so it has more to lose, and the fall will make more damages than 1997

A chronic decrease in domestic demand leading to a collapse in the property market exposing bank balances to catastrophic losses giving rise to a credit squeeze hastening a recession would of course see the baht weaken but is that all likely?

^Very good posts, thanks.