Apologies for this, but it might add something to the thread, or not
"Dillinger " Superrich " Dillinger "
CURRENCY DENOMINATION BUYING RATE SELLING RATE USDUnited States
100
30.15
30.1950 30.15 30.19 10 - 20 30.00 30.09 5 29.90 30.09 1 29.55 29.89
GBPUnited Kingdom
50
38.80
38.9520- 5 38.70 38.85
EUREuropean Union
500-100
33.25
33.3550 33.20 33.30 20-5 33.15 33.30
CHFSwitzerland
1000 - 10
30.25
30.35
AUDAustralia
100 - 5
20.40
20.55
I am not a liberator , Liberators do not exist , The people liberate themselves , Ernesto Che Guevara .
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this is going nowhere, FFS
should crash anytime soon now,
"Dillinger " Superrich " Dillinger "
CURRENCY DENOMINATION BUYING RATE SELLING RATE USDUnited States
100
30.19
30.2250 30.19 30.22 10 - 20 30.04 30.12 5 29.94 30.12 1 29.59 29.92
GBPUnited Kingdom
50
39.00
39.1020- 5 38.90 39.00
EUREuropean Union
500-100
33.20
33.3050 33.15 33.25 20-5 33.10 33.25
CHFSwitzerland
1000 - 10
30.15
30.30
AUDAustralia
100 - 5
20.40
20.50
https://www.superrichthailand.com/#!/en/exchange
it's going to happen, could be as early as Jan 2020 or Feb 2O20
and buying a lot of gold,
maybe March or April is a better month for a THB crash
There will be no crash, not least because the economy is still very much stabilised by a combination of relatively low government debt - only 41% of GDP - high rates of FDI which have surged this year amounting to $10 billion and an accrued FDI stock investment of $220 billions, and a low inflation rate of a mere 1%. Exports are weakening and household debt is high but in an environment where employment levels are being maintained with the boom in FDI, as supply chains are moving away from traditional markets, means these debt levels are getting serviced.
Thai investment in infrastructure, education and health is still too low but conservative public expenditure is still very much influenced by the 1997 crash which scarred the financial establishment to a degree that they will never ever permit again the circumstances that led to the collapse.
I see no great movement at all and any change in the baht's exchange rate with £ will of course be influenced by the current Brexit/Tory shambles and little else.
A hung parliament in the UK will ensure a 36-39 range as the British economy is further exposed to market losses caused by contraction in trade, manufacturing and the services sector.
Frankly, there are no grounds for optimism at all and guesstimating a devaluation in the baht is more whimsy and wishful thinking.
^Good post SA. I just don't know what central bank plans to stimulate exports and tourism. Maybe subsidies rather than baht devaluation. Maybe just talk with no action which certainly is not without precident. Exchange for £ of no interest to me. $ of course is.
Last edited by Norton; 02-12-2019 at 12:32 PM.
Looks like another trip back to California and a road trip from there again this year. Just cant pass up the exchange rate.
Th tourism aspect is misleading. Yes, it is weakening this year in terms of arriving numbers but let's get that into perspective - in 2002 tourism accounted for 8% of GDP, last year it was nigh on 20%.
Exports are price sensitive to a degree but in the end they are more dependent on demand and global trends - China's current decline has much more of an impact on the economy than the relative strength of the baht.
With a resurgent China, and a rapprochement with the US once they get rid of the idiot Trump, the Thai economy will gain more traction and if anything the baht could well strengthen even more.
The only other factor likely to affect the currency would be civil commotion arising from political turbulence but I rather think those days are gone for at least the next decade or so.
Related. Sorry can copy, paste.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...oncerns-abound
it only takes a few FX traders to see an opportunity in the overvalued THB, and crash the whole country
the currency play is just the trigger,
is Thailand more financially secure from 1997? yes and no, it is certainly better prepared but also a bigger country financially so it has more to lose, and the fall will make more damages than 1997
A chronic decrease in domestic demand leading to a collapse in the property market exposing bank balances to catastrophic losses giving rise to a credit squeeze hastening a recession would of course see the baht weaken but is that all likely?
^Very good posts, thanks.
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