Thread: Australian dollar dying a quick death ???

A few months ago I was getting 30 Baht to 1$ AUD. Today its Under 27 and seems to be heading South.

So I'm using my cash I have banked as that was changed at top dollar exchange.

I have 15 K cash banged up in my safe that I would like to get banked away but at the moment I ain't doing it with these exchange rates.

So what do you Money men reckon.

How low is The AUD likely to go and how long will it be down there ?

It ain't lookin good for the AUD.

Glad I'm not bringing it in for house builds and such as big money being lost compared to when it pulled 30.

Originally Posted by terry57

A few months ago I was getting 30 Baht to 1$ AUD. Today its Under 27 and seems to be heading South.

So I'm using my cash I have banked as that was changed at top dollar exchange.

I have 15 K cash banged up in my safe that I would like to get banked away but at the moment I ain't doing it with these exchange rates.

So what do you Money men reckon.

How low is The AUD likely to go and how long will it be down there ?

It ain't lookin good for the AUD.

Glad I'm not bringing it in for house builds and such as big money being lost compared to when it pulled 30.

If the Aussie dollars going then the USD is going up make me happy man, as I get payed in USD

Your economy is essentially commodity based but demand, worldwide, has fallen and with it prices. Competition for supply maintains the downward trajectory and profits evaporate. The bubble in your domestic economy is about to burst, taxation is too high as indeed are prices and personal debt assumed in the good years will suffocate growth. Unemployment will increase and wages fall as the private sector seeks to reduce costs. Public expenditure, already being targeted, will decrease further and services cut back but government borrowing necessary to make up diminished revenues will increase placing further pressure on the AUD.

The AUD was too high and will fall back. In the medium term it will stabilise at a lower level, around 23- 25 baht, and maintain that value for the next 3 years or so.

The problem for you Terry is that your expenditure in real terms here in LoS will inevitably increase but the return you are currently reaping from that superannuation fund of yours will fall significantly, and quite soon.

But, the point of living in Thailand with its low cost of living is that one can always draw in one's horns and spend accordingly to achieve financial equilibrium.

As you say, Oz has been riding the crest of the wave and now its time to hit that trough.

Good for me.

Fundamentally, the AUD is pretty sound. But on international currency markets, it is a plaything based on perceptions of commodity price trends. Currently the perception is bearish. If you want to guess the AUD short term, you'll need to correctly guess the direction of China, currently in a slowdown.

Why is the Aussie dollar falling ? Cause those with vested interests
keep talk'n it down, that basket case Lib govenment, the Australian
reserve bank,etc.
Oz interest rates are still high 2.50% ,compared to the Septics 0.25%.
The Japs 0.10%, and even the Poms 0.50%

Turning peaches into interesting wine

Perception of commodity price trends??? Sabang, you are talking rubbish as indeed is anyone who thinks the AUD is being "talked down" or the vicim of currency trading coups

Oil and iron ore prices have fallen by nigh on 50%. The longer that is maintained, the longer the Oz economy will take to recover. Their own treasury wallahs foresee the past years of growth attributed to ever rising commodity prices, of around 2% annually, will fall into negative territory for the next cycle of 5 years or so.

Japan nearly lurched into recession again. The auspices for the Oz economy are not good and almost certainly the AUD will hit 25bt quite soon. But that is to its benefit and some want it lower. Well, except Terry of course.

Terry : You can open up a bank account in Thailand and put Aussie $ in there in . a foreign bank account

Originally Posted by Fluke

Terry : You can open up a bank account in Thailand and put Aussie $ in there in . a foreign bank account

That strategy will have NO effect.

No matter what you determine as your "base currency. there is a risk.

Minimum risk for Aussies is to have their currency in AUD & spend in AUD. Not very helpful for Aussies living in LOS.

OK, "Banked" must mean *exchanged* then, rather then putting it in a bank

Originally Posted by Fluke

OK, "Banked" must mean *exchanged* then, rather then putting it in a bank

Exactly!

Not looking good all round, 1,000s getting laid off from mines and worse, construction sites for new mines.
Whole mining towns closing up shop, RBA wants the dollar to drop to 75 cents US, meaning everyone takes a 25% plus pay cut.
Australia always follows the world economy, years behind everyone else, it's 2009 in OZ and recession time.

Err, for reasons I could never really understand but presumably it was on the back of the commodities boom, Terry's superannuation fund was returning 12%,and higher, annually.

That is not something I see continuing unless the fund managers start including the principal in doling out dividends.

He should prepare accordingly. To assume everything will poodle on merrily in much the same way for the past few years without affecting anyone very much is daft.

Tel, get the fookin' camper van out!

I think that was always Plan B.

I reckon the AUD will drop back to the 2006 level of 26.

Well Iam hoping it does as I have a pile I would like to move back.

Trending is the "name of the game". The AUD is definitely trending - downwards. Great for the "Bears". The "Bulls" - bring out the campervan.

It is quite surprising thet many pundits just love to gloat in the good times but are very quiet when the trend is NOT their friend.

DISCLOSURE: I have NO AUD.

Where/when is the end?

This graph may reveal a better trend. Come on, punters, come on!

I reckon it be close to time for a to visit Australia. The shitty currency rates were putting me off as I travel using USD.

I guess it's time for Australians to suck hind tit for a while.

I saw the handwriting on the wall long ago regarding volatile exchange rates.

It's very easy to adjust one's life style here accordingly. And if you're clever make some money in the process. (when times were good I was buying up low income housing).

I laugh at the expats who cry about not being able to return home or maintain and an exorbitant lifestyle because of monetary inflation.
Get a fucking clue.

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

I guess it's time for Australians to suck hind tit for a while.

What on earth does that mean?

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

I laugh at the expats who cry about not being able to return home or maintain and an exorbitant lifestyle because of monetary inflation.

Translation please.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

The AUD was too high and will fall back. In the medium term it will stabilise at a lower level, around 23- 25 baht, and maintain that value for the next 3 years or so.

My thoughts the same. Was over valued. Now coming down to something more reasonable. The baht may continue it's decline against the USD but the AUD will stay near the 23 - 25 range. Aus and Thailand's dependency on China's economy make it so.