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  1. #1
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    So what will happen with the Thai Baht?

    OK all of you financial gurus out there. I have some money to transfer from the UK to the LOS. The rate seems to be moving upwards - anyone any clue as to how far the GBP will strengthen against the Baht? I am stressing about when I should transfer the cash...

  2. #2
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    Aren't there loads of well paid analysts that can't answer this question.

  3. #3
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    Yes, but if they really knew the answer wouldn't they be currency speculators instead of analysts?

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    IMHO, short term the Baht will weaken. Long term much stronger against the USD than now. I can see 15 - 20 THB to 1 USD in the next 5 years and the EURO and Pound at similar ratios.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999
    IMHO, short term the Baht will weaken. Long term much stronger against the USD than now. I can see 15 - 20 THB to 1 USD in the next 5 years and the EURO and Pound at similar ratios.
    Dude you just made my month. That would be super as I am going to be sending my kids to a good university in the US of A in two years time. I as different to most would welcome that.

  6. #6
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    yes, but it won't happen

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bowzer
    I am stressing about when I should transfer the cash...
    I assume a slow weakening for the next 6 months but no more then 49/50

    Long term - you'd have to assume the baht will get stronger due to ASEAN and high inflation in the west.

  8. #8
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    Depends on alternates,if your getting 4,1+% juice in an offshore bank or you have to pay off credit here.There is the opportunity cost.

    No one can predict regime change if the mid east situation will sway etc.

    You could hedge by sending half now and half on latest possible date to balance the risk,there is no sure answer in my opinion.
    I used to have a job at a calendar factory.
    I got the sack because
    I took a couple of days off.

  9. #9
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    The UK is recovering and will save loads by voting itself out of military action whenever the need comes to slap some tyrant on the wrist.

    Thailand is in recession and a credit crunch, coup and civil war are all on the horizon.

    I am saying back up to 70 baht to the pound because I am paid in pounds.

  10. #10
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    The relationship is not based on what you say but markets ,although they can be swayed by corrupt banks,governments,dealers and psychological expectancies.

    Rather like the fulcrum in a marriage it wiggles whatever we may hope for ,non welfare low wage productive Thailand versus over indebted Uk its hard to predict

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by rawlins
    Thailand is in recession and a credit crunch, coup and civil war are all on the horizon.
    There is also another unmentionable event which will devalue the baht.
    If you can hold on then it might be better to wait a bit.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44
    The relationship is not based on what you say but markets
    Quote Originally Posted by 9999
    I can see 15 - 20 THB to 1 USD
    That would hurt the thai export

    Won't be allowed to happen

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bowzer View Post
    Yes, but if they really knew the answer wouldn't they be currency speculators instead of analysts?
    Nothing trades on fundamentals. Thailand is a creditor with a trade surplus now, so don't dream of any 1997 style crash.

    Momentum wise, the Pound is expensive and the Baht is somewhat cheap now.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by rawlins View Post
    The UK is recovering and will save loads by voting itself out of military action whenever the need comes to slap some tyrant on the wrist.

    Thailand is in recession and a credit crunch, coup and civil war are all on the horizon.

    I am saying back up to 70 baht to the pound because I am paid in pounds.
    Thailand is a creditor with a trade surplus.

    UK is a debtor.

    Thailands political risk has been priced in for 30 years. The Baht was rising in the latest riots

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by rawlins
    I am saying back up to 70 baht to the pound because I am paid in pounds.
    sound reasoning



    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Nothing trades on fundamentals.
    tattoos are fundamental

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrAndy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rawlins
    I am saying back up to 70 baht to the pound because I am paid in pounds.
    sound reasoning



    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Nothing trades on fundamentals.
    tattoos are fundamental
    Speaking of which, the red line is US macro data ( jobs, manufacturing output, ect)

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thetyim View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rawlins
    Thailand is in recession and a credit crunch, coup and civil war are all on the horizon.
    There is also another unmentionable event which will devalue the baht.
    If you can hold on then it might be better to wait a bit.
    The chances of that happening are higher with the deficit debtor then the surplus creditor. But hey, thats just fundamentals.

    Markets trade on nothing but momentum and word clouds from central banks.

    One day though, all markets will get back to reality.

  18. #18
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    Thailand, not Europe experiences high inflation at present. Its economy shifted from import to export surplus. The currencies of almost all other developing nations comparable to Thailand have lost in value against the Euro recently. It all indicates that the Thai Baht will be devalued. And the long downward trend of the Euro has been reversed already.


  19. #19
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    I am with Thetym.

    The problem is that the event is unpredictable. At present markets know it will happen but are hoping we at least another few good years. When the good times are over markets will lose that "hope" factor and the question is not whether the Baht will decline, but by how much.
    I see fish. They are everywhere. They don't know they are fish.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rainfall View Post
    Thailand, not Europe experiences high inflation at present. Its economy shifted from import to export surplus. The currencies of almost all other developing nations comparable to Thailand have lost in value against the Euro recently. It all indicates that the Thai Baht will be devalued. And the long downward trend of the Euro has been reversed already.

    The Thai Baht has been held down foolishly by the central bank of Thailand for along time now. It was policy.

    The bank of India did the same thing and they have just lost control on the way down. If they let it appreciate during the good times, there would be no issues in the bad times but they were too stupid for that. India though, is a trade deficit country as opposed to Thailand so I do not expect the CB of Thailand to lose control like India has.

    There could be a speculative short term trade against the Baht but even then, it will recover rather quickly

    Search Results

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      Aug 28, 2013 - UPDATE 2: It would appear Abe got a late-afternoon phone-call to sell some JPY and buy some Indian 10Y bonds... (since Traders have not ...

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  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    I am with Thetym.

    The problem is that the event is unpredictable. At present markets know it will happen but are hoping we at least another few good years. When the good times are over markets will lose that "hope" factor and the question is not whether the Baht will decline, but by how much.
    What will the Baht decline against ?

    Debtor dollars ?

    Debtor Pounds ?

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by rawlins
    I am saying back up to 70 baht to the pound because I am paid in pounds.
    You got my vote Raws

  23. #23
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    Much of course depends on what the 'stupid bitch' does, or rather her brother.

    She's actually in Montenegro shortly probably sharing a pot of tea with Taki and of course several suitcases full of cash. No doubt there will need to be a few more visits between now and the next election as he has millions of votes to purchase with taxpayers money.

    I'm hoping for a further weakening of the baht to make my UK pension appear a wee bit more attractive especially now that the price of a can of Leo has recently risen by 13%.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thetyim
    There is also another unmentionable event which will devalue the baht.
    Like nobody knows about this. It is already factored into the price and the unspeakable event should have little impact on currency price. Just more noise.

  25. #25
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    Socal, you are failing to factor in the corruption aspect.

    If people cannot conduct business with Thailand because corrupt officials make it too expensive and foreign businesses cannot rely upon the banking system then the Baht will become decidedly unattractive. My guess is that money will pour out of this country when the unthinkable happens, interest rates will rise and the economy will decline rapidly.

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