Thread: So what will happen with the Thai Baht?

With so much money laundering I now deposit my shirts and pants and hope they come out of the ATM ironed

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Tormaturge, may be you can enlighten me as to how money laundering can cause the Baht to crash.
Whether the money was obtained from illegal dealings or not it's still money, a drug dealer laundering illegal drugs money is no different than a drug company selling legal drugs. They both sell a product for which money is paid, the illegal guy is evading taxes and committing criminal offenses, but the money is still money, so what bearing would it have on the value of the Baht. Jim

Tax evasion leaves more money in the private sector where it gets invested which expands the economy. Rather then giving it to the government so they can piss it away on buying ipads from Apple which eats into the trade surplus.

Singapore is built on low taxes.

My thoughts, the current status of the baht reflects the previous decline and now improvement of economies elsewhere, and not the strength of the Thai economy. Gradual recovery in the US and Europe in the near and medium term, and a drive to create jobs in those markets will signal a continuing slide in exports for the Asian manufacturers in particular (lead by China and the ASEAN countries), though excluding the tech and heavy industry sectors of Japan and South Korea.

I also predict that the intended commencement of the AEC in 2015 won't happen, or at least not in it's intended state. The nations involved are too immature to accept completely 100% alliance and acceptance of an economic union without boundaries of workers rights and removal of tarrifs. This will lead to loss of confidence in the regions economies, particularly to those countries most unwilling or unable to fully participate because of current protectionist policies (Thailand).

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see 35/45/55 US Dollar/Euro/Pound rates by the end of this year.

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

Originally Posted by socal

Some of this laundering actually helps the balance of payments situation which is currency positive. This thread is about the value of the Baht. Not about curruption

If I were you I really would stop demonstrating how little you understand about the situation here, socal.

If the banking system is swamped with the proceeds of crime (drugs, theft, counterfeit goods) to such an extent that institutions outside Thailand no longer trust the banks or the currency then corruption has a very considerable effect on the value of the currency and especially the country's ability to export.

You can keep reading about the country's GDP all you want though, but it is historical data. Thailand is like a duck on a pond; calm on the surface but paddling like heck underneath. When the paddling stops you don't want to be the one with a bank account full off Thai baht and a book full of historical data from the good old days.

Thailand is not and never has been known as a tax haven. And all of the stuff you are mentioning is keeping the Baht somewhat lower then it should be. Its priced in and has been for a long time.

But the main factor in keeping the Baht down is the intentional devaluation by the central bank. Without this direct intervention, the Baht would be a hell of a lot higher then it is now.

Originally Posted by PAG

My thoughts, the current status of the baht reflects the previous decline and now improvement of economies elsewhere, and not the strength of the Thai economy. Gradual recovery in the US and Europe in the near and medium term, and a drive to create jobs in those markets will signal a continuing slide in exports for the Asian manufacturers in particular (lead by China and the ASEAN countries), though excluding the tech and heavy industry sectors of Japan and South Korea.

I

Thailand had a quarter trillion in excess foreign exchange reserves in 2010. But everyone likes to give it the bannana republic treatment no matter what the numbers are.

There has been no recovery in the US or Europe since 2008. Just the illusion of recovery for those who don't pay attention.

Asian countries do not need to rely on exports as much if they let their currencies appreciate in value. This is what Germany and Singapore do. You only export to pay for imports. You don't export for the sake of exporting.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Tormaturge, may be you can enlighten me as to how money laundering can cause the Baht to crash.
Whether the money was obtained from illegal dealings or not it's still money, a drug dealer laundering illegal drugs money is no different than a drug company selling legal drugs. They both sell a product for which money is paid, the illegal guy is evading taxes and committing criminal offenses, but the money is still money, so what bearing would it have on the value of the Baht. Jim

I have answered this in part with post 51 but here goes:

Money laundering is the process where money from an illegal activity such as the sale of drugs or counterfeit goods is given the appearance of having a legitimate origin, usually by passing it through an artificial business or though a bank account. This is why Western banks now ask for evidence as to the origin of cash deposits in excess of a certain figure.

Thailand has considerable drug and counterfeiting businesses and the money has, for a long time, been simply deposited into Thai bank accounts and transferred overseas with no questions asked. Until February this year it was possible to manufacture Meth Amphetamine in Thailand, deposit the money into SCB and draw the money out anywhere in the world. Thailand had no laws preventing drug money being banked and no questions were asked. So you sell your Ice in Bangkok, bank the cash, transfer it overseas and use the money to buy a nice house in LA.

Now Thailand has laws to prevent this but they must be seen to work. If not, and foreign governments cannot be sure that money coming from Thai bank accounts has legitimate origins, then it will be increasingly difficult for legitimate businesses to conduct trade here, especially if banks are unable to effect transfers and cheques are worthless.

US banks refuse to cash cheques for Thai officials | Bangkok Post: news

How much would you give for a cheque which may not be cashed since the banks can no longer distinguish between genuine and laundered money? Would you want to sell something to a country where the banks may not be able to transfer the money to you?

Originally Posted by socal

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

^
In this region the countries in a worse position than Thailand are Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Vietnam which are all just one step above Iran and North Korea.

Bullshit

Thailand is lightyears ahead of any of the above in many other metrics.

Information taken straight from the FATF list is now apparently bullshit.

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

They know they should be doing something but nobody knows what.

"During the event, in a symbolic gesture, participants used hammers to smash eight clay pots with the word "corruption" written on them."
Corruption 'nears critical' level | Bangkok Post: news

Are you expecting more than this ?

Originally Posted by socal

Asian countries do not need to rely on exports as much if they let their currencies appreciate in value. This is what Germany and Singapore do. You only export to pay for imports. You don't export for the sake of exporting.

Sorry, must disagree. Asian countries are those most reliant on exports rather than manufacturing for predominently domestic consumption. What do you think would happen to the Thai economy if the Japanese (and US) car/truck manufacturers decided to relocate elsewhere? Do you think there are millions of Somchai's in Thailand desperate to get their brown fingers on a new Vigo or Ranger? Possibly there are, but not with their own money for sure.

The Thai government's car tax rebate scheme has now ended, which was primarily put into place to stimulate sales in the aftermath of the disastrous floods, and appease the foreign motor manufacturers. Domestic sales are therefore going to be down for the next 2 or 3 years at least. Rice and rubber prices are down, and seemingly going to be state subsidised for the foreseeable future. Tourism numbers are up, but is the actual tourist 'spend' up accordingly? The mushrooming of the Chinese and Russian package tour market means the real profits are going to external companies.

Anyway, only an opinion of course, but one based on living here.

Originally Posted by Thetyim

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

They know they should be doing something but nobody knows what.

"During the event, in a symbolic gesture, participants used hammers to smash eight clay pots with the word "corruption" written on them."
Corruption 'nears critical' level | Bangkok Post: news

Are you expecting more than this ?

Oddly enough I referred to this article in the office yesterday.

One particular problem is that corruption is so ingrained in Thailand that it isn't even seen as corruption. Heck why wouldn't you pay Somboon a couple of million baht to leave the superior German produced widgets stranded in a warehouse somewhere in order to sell your inferior locally produced ones?

Originally Posted by david44

With so much money laundering I now deposit my shirts and pants and hope they come out of the ATM ironed

Any more cracks like that then it'll be back in jail for you, and deservedly so.

Sorry Thormaturge your logic defeats me, the cheque thing, don't know many banks that cash them nowadays, especially cheques from banks in a foreign country.

As to the drug dealer buying a house or any other investment in the USA, if the money is clean then it;s just one of millions of transfers that happen every day.

Or are you saying that the west may put an embargo on Thai banks and black list the Baht. Since most international trade is done in US dollars that would mean that Thailand would be unable to buy or sell any goods internationally. Not going to happen and is there any figures that say money obtained illegally then cleaned is not re invested in legitimate businesses in Thailand.
Would think more dirty money comes here than leaves, so still don't see how it would effect the value of the Baht.

Ones about crime and terror the other is about the economic state of a nation. Jim

No reason to think baht will move much in near future. Been a few dips but volatility against $US has been stable for years.

The event Thetter's mentions above in itself will not cause baht to devalue. Political fallout after the event may however. Private borrowing is worrying but doubt we'll see a crash the likes of 1997.

As Butters says predicting is exercise in futility. Unless you have big money to transfer, small day to day differences not going to amount to much.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Sorry Thormaturge your logic defeats me, the cheque thing, don't know many banks that cash them nowadays, especially cheques from banks in a foreign country.

I routinely send Thai cheques overseas and have them cashed, but it is quite a performance and you need to know the procedure, otherwise the cheques are sent back. For a while we did have overseas banks refusing cheques because they were post-dated (2556) but I think I have stamped that out.

As to the drug dealer buying a house or any other investment in the USA, if the money is clean then it;s just one of millions of transfers that happen every day.

My point is that, in my example, the money isn't clean and if there is doubt as to the origin of the money then Western banks won't accept it. This is where the new money laundering regulations are supposed to ensure money deposited in Thai banks is verified. The latest arrangement I heard of involved hundreds of village folk being trooped around banks opening accounts and paid to hand over the bank books and ATM cards. Hundreds of thousands of Baht are deposited into the accounts in cash over a period of time and then in the space of an hour or two, many months down the line, the accounts are systematically emptied out as the funds are all transferred overseas electronically.

It is the "millions of transactions" that are the problem. With so many transactions a broad brush has to be applied on a country by country basis.

Or are you saying that the west may put an embargo on Thai banks and black list the Baht. Since most international trade is done in US dollars that would mean that Thailand would be unable to buy or sell any goods internationally. Not going to happen

I am saying exactly that, and Thailand came within six months of this happening. It isn't the Baht that would be blacklisted but all financial transactions originating in Thailand. Accountants, banks, Western Union, Paypal, Visa, etc. etc. would all cease to do business here and if the above practice cannot be stamped out then we will be back to the precipice again. It isn't just houses for drug dealers but funding for terrorists that passes through Thailand.

Originally Posted by Zooheekock

Really? Earlier this year, HSBC admitted laundering billions of dollars of drug money but that didn't seem to precipitate the collapse of the financial system.

Not sure where you get your news, but here is the real story.

HSBC failed to follow the correct procedures and was unable to demonstrate that it had adequate procedures in place to prevent money laundering in Somalia and Mexico. The bank did not admit to money laundering, but could not prove that it was preventing it.

It is exactly the situation I have outlined above, they did not have adequate procedures in place to identify the origin of deposits.

The bank was fined $ 1.9 BILLION.

I doubt HSBC are in too much of a hurry to repeat this experience in Thailand.

You can bet your ass that if the Thai banks follow HSBC's example then they will go broke trying to pay off the fines.

15 Local Commercial Banks ranked by total asset as of Dec 31, 2007

With total combined asset of US$ 277 billion

• Using an exchange rate of 1 USD = 31.5 Baht

Rank Name Total Asset 1 Bangkok Bank US$ 55.0 billion[1] 2 Krungthai Bank (56% owned by Thai government) US$ 38.1 billion 3 Siam Commercial Bank US$ 40.0 billion[2] 4 Kasikorn Bank US$ 30.8 billion[3] 5 TMB Bank (30% owned by ING, 7% DBS, 26% Thai Ministry of Finance, 2% Thai military) US$ 25.7 billion 6 Thanachart Bank (49% owned by Scotiabank of Canada + merged with Siam City Bank) US$ 21.9 billion 7 Bank of Ayudhya US$ 21.2 billion 8 Kiatnakin Bank US$ 18.1 billion 9 CIMB Thai (subsidiary of CIMB of Malaysia) US$ 8.2 billion 10 Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) (subsidiary of Standard Chartered Bank of the UK) US$ 6.1 billion 11 United Overseas Bank (Thai) (subsidiary of UOB of Singapore) US$ 5.9 billion 12 Tisco Bank US$ 3.4 billion 13 ICBC Bank (subsidiary of ICBC of China) US$ 2.1 billion 14 Mega ICB (subsidiary of Mega ICB of Taiwan) US$ 0.4 billion 2 Local Retail Banks

Rank Name Total Asset 1 LH Retail Bank US$ 980 million 2 The Thai Credit Retail Bank US$ 81 million 15 Foreign Banks with a Full Branch (one location) in Bangkok

With total combined asset of US$ 36 billion
Ranked by total asset as of Dec 31, 2006

Rank Name Total Asset 1 The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (Japan) US$ 7.3 billion 2 Citibank (US) US$ 5.7 billion 3 Sumitomo Mitsui (Japan) US$ 5.6 billion 4 Mizuho (Japan) US$ 4.4 billion 5 HSBC US$ 3.7 billion 6 Others US$ 3.8 billion
Total US$ 36.1 billion 5 Foreign Banks (European)

• ABN-AMRO Bank N.V. [2]
• BNP Paribas [3]
• Calyon Corporate & Investment Bank [4]
• Deutsche Bank [5]
• HSBC

7 Foreign Banks (Asian)

• Bank of China Ltd.
• Indian Overseas Bank
• Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd.
• RHB Bank Berhad
• The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.
• Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
• Mizuho Corporate Bank, Ltd.

4 Foreign Banks (North American)

• Citibank Thailand [6]
• JP Morgan Chase [7]
• Bank of America N.A. [8]
• Scotiabank (Bank of Nova Scotia) - through subsidiary Thanachart Bank

Do you rally think they would ban these banks from trading on the world market., sure there is more dirty money being washed in the USA than here.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Do you rally think they would ban these banks from trading on the world market.,.

In 2011 Thailand was believed to have been responsible for the laundering of $4,000,000,000 so do you think, in the light of the $ 1,900,000,000 fine on HSBC, that these banks would be permitted to continue providing facilities to criminals and terrorists?

Either Thailand shapes up or the answer to your question is, "yes".

It is exactly the situation I have outlined above

Except for the bit about ending up as Somalia or North Korea.

When we're getting air drops of food from Oxfam and fighting off gangs of teens armed with RPGs or, alternatively, reduced to boiling grass and eating tree bark, you can crow about your astonishing prescience but until then, I think most people will remain a little skeptical.

Thormatuge, 4 Billion dollars from crime in the system in Thailand and you think the USA and others will close it down.

4 Foreign Banks (North American)

• Citibank Thailand [6]
• JP Morgan Chase [7]
• Bank of America N.A. [8]
• Scotiabank (Bank of Nova Scotia) - through subsidiary Thanachart Bank

As well as the other banks, local an international, plus Western Union, an affiliate of the BKK bank.


The US and UK jut bailed out their banks in the form of trillions, a few Billions is not going to do it.


Much as I would love to see the banks and bankers done, it's not going to happen.


Thailand's economy is strong and no one is going to walk away from profit and they will not close any banks. No right or wrong when it comes down to money. Jim

you think the economy is strong ?

i thought its the opposite...

i dont know if this has economical "effect", though i think it must have, somehow... but whatever comes out of this country as "product" or "service" is just crap...

buildings, appliances, medical treatment...

nothing has really "value" as a result...

Originally Posted by alitongkat

you think the economy is strong ?

i thought its the opposite...

i dont know if this has economical "effect", though i think it must have, somehow... but whatever comes out of this country as "product" or "service" is just crap...

buildings, appliances, medical treatment...

nothing has really "value" as a result...

How much does Thailand owe and how much does your country owe,
Remember it's not the country that pays the bill, but it's people. Jim

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

...[sic] that these banks would be permitted to continue providing facilities to criminals and terrorists?

That would include nearly all financial institutions.
Guilty as charged...

Especially the mega-banking community.
Bangsters.